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DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition

Research investigates bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle shift to carbon-neutral fuels while providing map of present and planned carbon-neutral marine fuel production.

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Classification society DNV on Tuesday (12 September) officially launched the 7th edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report in London

The latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 document provides an independent outlook of shipping’s energy future and examines how the technology and energy transition will affect the industry. DNV investigated bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle the shift to carbon-neutral fuels. 

The report also provides a valuable mapping of present and planned production of carbon-neutral marine fuels.

The following are important bunkering industry related highlights extracted from the report:

Outlook on ship technologies and bunker fuels

We report and discuss notable trends, developments, and prospects in the fuel technolog transition underway, including:

  • Half the ordered tonnage can use LNG, LPG or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared with a third last year, but urgent action is needed for training in the use of new fuels.
  • Wind-assisted propulsion and air lubrication are being installed on more vessels.
  • Onboard carbon capture and, later, nuclear propulsion can reduce dependence on sustainable
  • biomass and renewable electricity.

Outlook on alternative fuel production and demand

We assess the future for carbon-neutral fuels for which shipping will compete with other sectors, concluding that:

  • The estimated demand from shipping to achieve emission reduction goals in 2030 is 30% to 40% of the total world supply of carbon-neutral fuels.
  • Competition means production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives must accelerate if emission reduction goals are to be met.
  • Price fluctuations due to supply uncertainty while production of carbon-neutral fuels ramps up mean
  • fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners during the transition period.

Alternative fuel ship orders 

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 9.05.50 PM

A fuel technology transition is already underway in the maritime industry, with half the ordered tonnage capable of using LNG, LPG, or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared to one third of the tonnage on order last year. For ships in operation, 6.2% of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels, compared to 5.5% last year. The uptake of methanol and LPG is starting to show in the statistics together with the first hydrogen-fuelled newbuilds.

Though several demonstration projects for ammonia-fuelled ships are ongoing, there are no ammonia-fuelled ships in the official order book.

Fuel technology solutions

While the fuel technology transition gathers pace, the search for solutions continues. We know that technology to reduce both energy consumption and the need for expensive fuel will be important. Given the need to understand and have a clear view of all the options, we present an outlook on six selected technologies that are receiving increased attention in the industry: solid oxide fuel cells, liquefied hydrogen, wind-assisted propulsion, air lubrication systems, onboard carbon capture, and nuclear propulsion. With the industry seeing energy-saving technologies as increasingly important, wind-assisted propulsion systems have now been installed on 28 large vessels. Air lubrication systems are installed on or ordered for more than 250 vessels in total.

Carbon capture and nuclear propulsion

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 9.07.03 PM

Considering onboard carbon capture and nuclear propulsion, we have performed a feasibility study using the FuelPath model of a 15,000 TEU container vessel as a case, benchmarking against fuel oil, LNG, methanol and ammonia. We find that onboard carbon capture can be operationally feasible for a large container vessel using 4,000 cubic metres (m³) of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) storage on board, offloading CO2  twice per trip AsiaEurope, and annually capturing 70% of the carbon dioxide. If the increase in energy use to capture the CO2 can be kept below 15%, and if the cost for offloading, transporting, and sequestering the CO2 is below 40 USD/tonne, onboard carbon capture can be a competitive option for decarbonization.

There are 160, mostly naval, nuclear-powered vessels today, and we find that it is a technically feasible solution for the case study ship, with a reactor and gensets for redundancy and take-me-home functionality. We find that nuclear propulsion can be a competitive option if reactor costs are in the lower range of historical costs for land-based nuclear power plants.

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 9.07.23 PM

Production of alternative bunker fuels needs to be ramped up 

While energy saving will reduce the need for alternative fuels, and both nuclear and onboard carbon capture may alleviate the need for such fuels, we still see that large volumes of carbon-neutral fuels will be needed to decarbonize shipping, and that the production of these fuels will be a key challenge. Currently, only 0.1% of fuels used by merchant shipping are biofuels, while 99.9% are fossil fuels. We present a new and comprehensive global database of more than 2,200 existing and planned production plants for relevant fuels: all biofuels, methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, including bio-, electro-, and blue versions of all fuels. 

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 9.08.40 PM

We find that the probability-adjusted global cross-sector production volume in 2030 is between 44 and 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The estimated demand for carbon-neutral fuel in shipping is 17 Mtoe in 2030, meaning that 30% to 40% of our estimated global cross-sector production volume will be required to supply the shipping sector.

As the shipping industry will compete for carbon-neutral fuels with aviation and road transportation, as well as other industries, the production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives needs to significantly accelerate if the emission reduction goals are to be met. The period of ramping up production of different carbon-neutral fuels may come with uncertainty in supply, and price fluctuations are therefore expected. Thus, fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners to navigate these uncharted waters. In addition to the lack of supply of carbon-neutral fuels, there are other important barriers to decarbonizing shipping. Examples include lack of infrastructure, novel safety risks, lack of competence, immature technology and high costs.

Three-step approach for stakeholders to establish green shipping corridor

Screenshot 2023 09 13 at 9.09.00 PM

This report presents an outlook on green shipping corridors. These can accelerate uptake of carbon neutral fuels by allowing barriers to be identified and overcome in a more targeted and practicable way than on a global scale. We provide a three-step approach for stakeholders within the value chain aiming to establish green shipping corridors. It is based on DNV’s experience over a decade with already existing green shipping corridors in Norway. At the approach’s core is identifying barriers to achieving viable business cases for green shipping corridor partners.

A shipowner navigating these uncharted waters should consider all available decarbonization options, focusing on reduced energy consumption and fuel flexibility in the short term, while also considering a long-term fuel sourcing strategy.

The 2020s is a decisive decade for shipping and the quality and effectiveness of plans put in place now will dictate how successful the maritime industry is in reaching its decarbonization goals over the coming decades.

Note: The full version of the 7th edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.

Related: DNV chooses London to launch its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 14 September, 2023

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Bunker Fuel

Singapore: Bunker fuel sales soar by 7.5% on year in June 2025

4.59 million mt of various marine fuel grades were delivered at the world’s largest bunkering port in June, up from 4.27 million mt recorded during the similar month in 2024, according to MPA.

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Singapore: Bunker fuel sales soar by 7.5% on year in June 2025

Sales of marine fuel at Singapore port increased by 7.5% on year in June 2025, according to Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) data.

In total, 4.59 million metric tonnes (mt) (exact 4,594,700 mt) of various marine fuel grades were delivered at the world’s largest bunkering port in June, up from 4.27 million mt (4,274,900 mt) recorded during the similar month in 2024.

Deliveries of marine fuel oil, low sulphur fuel oil, ultra low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and marine diesel oil in June (against on year) recorded respectively 1.70 million mt (+8.6% from 1.56 million mt), 2.31 million mt (-7.2% from 2.33 million mt), 1,900 mt (from zero), 4,500 mt (-88% from 8,000 mt) and zero (from zero).

Singapore: Bunker fuel sales soar by 7.5% on year in June 2025

Bio-blended variants of marine fuel oil, low sulphur fuel oil, ultra low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and marine diesel oil in June (against on year) recorded respectively 38,800 mt (+671.7% from 2,500 mt), 114,300 mt (+97.9% from 45,400 mt), zero (from zero), zero (from zero) and zero (from zero). B100 biofuel bunkers, introduced in February this year, recorded 1,000 mt of deliveries in June.

LNG and methanol sales were respectively 55,400 mt (-7.8% from 51,700) and zero (from zero mt). There were no recorded sales of ammonia for the month and so far in 2025.

Related: Singapore: Bunker sales volume raises to year record high of 4.88 million mt in May
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales increase by 4% on year in April 2025
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales increase by 0.5% on year in March 2025
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 8.1% on year in February 2025
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 9.1% on year in January 2025

A complete series of articles on Singapore bunker volumes reported by Manifold Times tracked since 2018 can be found via the link here.

 

Photo credit: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore
Published: 15 July 2025

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Alternative Fuels

ITOCHU orders world’s first ammonia bunkering vessel for Singapore demonstration project

Company contracted Sasaki Shipbuilding to build the 5,000 m3 vessel and Izumi Steel Works to construct an ammonia tank plant that will be loaded onto the vessel, which is expected to be delivered in 2027.

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ITOCHU orders world’s first ammonia bunkering vessel for Singapore demonstration project

ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU) on Monday (14 July) announced that it recently signed a shipbuilding contract for the construction of a 5,000 m3 ammonia bunkering vessel with Sasaki Shipbuilding. 

The company also announced an agreement regarding the construction of an ammonia tank plant that will be loaded onto the vessel with Izumi Steel Works. 

These agreements were signed by Clean Ammonia Bunkering Shipping Pte Ltd (CABS), a wholly owned Singapore-based specific purpose company of ITOCHU. 

In relation to this, CABS has concluded a financing agreement with The Hiroshima Bank for financing a part of purchase price of the vessel.

The agreements were concluded to pursue the Demonstration Project for Bunkering Ammonia as Marine Fuel in Singapore adopted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan as part of the Global South Future-oriented Co-Creation Project (large-scale demonstration in ASEAN member states). 

Going forward, with an eye toward the demonstration of ammonia bunkering in Singapore after building the world’s first newbuilding ammonia bunkering vessel, ITOCHU said efforts will be made to facilitate concrete discussions with the maritime stakeholders, including the port authority in Singapore, the Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), and the fuel producers, while obtaining support from the Japanese Government.

The vessel is to be flagged under the Singapore Registry and is expected to be delivered in September 2027.

ITOCHU will establish a safe offshore bunkering operation of ammonia as marine fuel by way of ship-to-ship transfer through the development and construction of the vessel and demonstration. 

Then, by utilising the vessel, ITOCHU will establish connection between the first movers in clean ammonia production and the first movers in the ammonia-fueled vessels and secure initial demand for ammonia as marine fuel, aiming at the commercialisation of ammonia bunkering business in Singapore and expansion of similar business model to major maritime transportation points around the world, including Spain (Strait of Gibraltar), Egypt (Suez Canal) and Japan.

 

Photo credit: ITOCHU Corporation
Published: 15 July 2025

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Business

S@S Week 2025: Singapore conducts chemical spill exercise to gear up for methanol bunkering

Exercise simulated a methanol spill from a collision involving a methanol-carrying tanker off Singapore’s southern coast, triggering a multi-agency response which included spill containment.

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RESIZED bunker tanker singapore

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Tuesday (15 July) conducted a multi-agency chemical spill exercise to strengthen Singapore’s operational readiness, as part of the International Safety@Sea (S@S) Week. 

MPA is organising the 12th edition of the S@S Week, with this year’s event being the international edition, taking place from 15 to 18 July 2025. 

Conducted off Singapore’s southern coast, the exercise involved 11 vessels and over 150 personnel from more than 10 government agencies and industry partners. Mr Murali, Mr Dominguez and Secretary-General, International Organization for Marine Aids to Navigation, Mr Francis Zachariae, observed the exercise.

The exercise simulated a methanol spill from a collision involving a methanol-carrying tanker, triggering a multi-agency response. This included coordinated efforts for spill containment and the evacuation of injured crew. A range of drone-enabled technologies was trialled during the exercise, including 3D imaging to assess vessel damage and a water curtain misting system to limit the spread of chemical plumes. An Uncrewed Surface Vehicle was also deployed to monitor air quality, reducing the need for responders to enter hazardous zones to perform such monitoring. The Maritime Digital Twin and chemical plume modelling tools were used to enhance situational awareness and support decision-making throughout the exercise.

The exercise is part of MPA’s broader preparations for methanol bunkering and provided a valuable opportunity for agencies and industry partners to better understand the safety and operational challenges, and potential solutions, in handling alternative fuels. Following an open call in March 2025, MPA has received 13 applications for methanol bunker supplier licenses, reflecting strong industry interest in supplying methanol on a commercial scale in Singapore. MPA is evaluating the applications and targets to issue the licenses in Q4 2025, which will cover the period from 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2030. 

Themed ‘The Future of Maritime Safety: Navigating the Next Frontier’, the annual event brings together local and international maritime experts, and the maritime community to promote awareness and facilitate discussions on maritime safety. 

Speaking at the opening today, Mr Murali Pillai, Senior Minister of State, Ministry of Law and Ministry of Transport, said that the maritime sector is facing increasingly complex global challenges, including heightened geopolitical tensions, climate change, and rapid transformation in digitalisation and decarbonisation. He highlighted that we can tackle these challenges by (i) equipping our workforce for future challenges, (ii) harnessing collective expertise through close collaborations and partnerships, and (iii) drawing upon technology and innovation to augment our capabilities. 

In his keynote address, Mr Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), underscored the need for robust safety frameworks and regulations as the maritime landscape evolves. He cited Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships and new ship designs and systems using sustainable marine fuels as examples of how the maritime sector is transforming and outlined IMO’s priorities in those areas. Mr Dominguez also highlighted the importance of government-industry collaboration and initiatives like the Safety@Sea Singapore Campaign to foster a safety-first culture at sea.  

This year’s conference features 19 speakers across three plenaries. Discussions will focus on issues shaping the future of maritime safety, including lessons learned from past incidents, and the human element in ensuring safety as the industry transforms. A new Safety@Sea Community Conversations event will also bring together representatives from shipping companies, regional ferry operators, harbour craft operators and terminal operators to share their experiences and efforts in fostering a safety culture in their organisations. 

Over 1,800 participants from more than 40 countries are expected to participate in the week’s sessions. Other highlights include the Responders Plus Programme (RPP) Maritime Workshop jointly organised by MPA and the Singapore Civil Defence Force, and two safety forums organised by the MPA-Harbour Craft and MPA-Pleasure Craft Safety Work Groups to promote safety awareness and best practices within the local maritime community. 

MPA is also enhancing safety across other areas of port operations. In collaboration with Skyports Drone Services, TFG Marine and CBS Ventures, MPA and the partners will complete Singapore’s first shore-to-ship drone trials for delivery and retrieval operations from bunker tankers later this week. 

The use of drones reduces reliance on harbour craft for such operations, improving efficiency while reducing pollution and congestion. 

It also minimises safety risks by removing the need for crew to handle and transfer heavy items between the ship and shore using harbour craft. Safety considerations, including the management of electrostatic discharge risks during the drone operations, are carefully reviewed in preparation for the trials. 

Findings from these trials will inform the development of safety protocols and an operational framework to support the phased implementation of this new maritime service.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 15 July 2025

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