Bunker Fuel
DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition
Research investigates bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle shift to carbon-neutral fuels while providing map of present and planned carbon-neutral marine fuel production.
Classification society DNV on Tuesday (12 September) officially launched the 7th edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report in London.
The latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 document provides an independent outlook of shipping’s energy future and examines how the technology and energy transition will affect the industry. DNV investigated bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle the shift to carbon-neutral fuels.
The report also provides a valuable mapping of present and planned production of carbon-neutral marine fuels.
The following are important bunkering industry related highlights extracted from the report:
Outlook on ship technologies and bunker fuels
We report and discuss notable trends, developments, and prospects in the fuel technolog transition underway, including:
- Half the ordered tonnage can use LNG, LPG or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared with a third last year, but urgent action is needed for training in the use of new fuels.
- Wind-assisted propulsion and air lubrication are being installed on more vessels.
- Onboard carbon capture and, later, nuclear propulsion can reduce dependence on sustainable
- biomass and renewable electricity.
Outlook on alternative fuel production and demand
We assess the future for carbon-neutral fuels for which shipping will compete with other sectors, concluding that:
- The estimated demand from shipping to achieve emission reduction goals in 2030 is 30% to 40% of the total world supply of carbon-neutral fuels.
- Competition means production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives must accelerate if emission reduction goals are to be met.
- Price fluctuations due to supply uncertainty while production of carbon-neutral fuels ramps up mean
- fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners during the transition period.
Alternative fuel ship orders
A fuel technology transition is already underway in the maritime industry, with half the ordered tonnage capable of using LNG, LPG, or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared to one third of the tonnage on order last year. For ships in operation, 6.2% of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels, compared to 5.5% last year. The uptake of methanol and LPG is starting to show in the statistics together with the first hydrogen-fuelled newbuilds.
Though several demonstration projects for ammonia-fuelled ships are ongoing, there are no ammonia-fuelled ships in the official order book.
Fuel technology solutions
While the fuel technology transition gathers pace, the search for solutions continues. We know that technology to reduce both energy consumption and the need for expensive fuel will be important. Given the need to understand and have a clear view of all the options, we present an outlook on six selected technologies that are receiving increased attention in the industry: solid oxide fuel cells, liquefied hydrogen, wind-assisted propulsion, air lubrication systems, onboard carbon capture, and nuclear propulsion. With the industry seeing energy-saving technologies as increasingly important, wind-assisted propulsion systems have now been installed on 28 large vessels. Air lubrication systems are installed on or ordered for more than 250 vessels in total.
Carbon capture and nuclear propulsion
Considering onboard carbon capture and nuclear propulsion, we have performed a feasibility study using the FuelPath model of a 15,000 TEU container vessel as a case, benchmarking against fuel oil, LNG, methanol and ammonia. We find that onboard carbon capture can be operationally feasible for a large container vessel using 4,000 cubic metres (m³) of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) storage on board, offloading CO2 twice per trip AsiaEurope, and annually capturing 70% of the carbon dioxide. If the increase in energy use to capture the CO2 can be kept below 15%, and if the cost for offloading, transporting, and sequestering the CO2 is below 40 USD/tonne, onboard carbon capture can be a competitive option for decarbonization.
There are 160, mostly naval, nuclear-powered vessels today, and we find that it is a technically feasible solution for the case study ship, with a reactor and gensets for redundancy and take-me-home functionality. We find that nuclear propulsion can be a competitive option if reactor costs are in the lower range of historical costs for land-based nuclear power plants.
Production of alternative bunker fuels needs to be ramped up
While energy saving will reduce the need for alternative fuels, and both nuclear and onboard carbon capture may alleviate the need for such fuels, we still see that large volumes of carbon-neutral fuels will be needed to decarbonize shipping, and that the production of these fuels will be a key challenge. Currently, only 0.1% of fuels used by merchant shipping are biofuels, while 99.9% are fossil fuels. We present a new and comprehensive global database of more than 2,200 existing and planned production plants for relevant fuels: all biofuels, methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, including bio-, electro-, and blue versions of all fuels.
We find that the probability-adjusted global cross-sector production volume in 2030 is between 44 and 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The estimated demand for carbon-neutral fuel in shipping is 17 Mtoe in 2030, meaning that 30% to 40% of our estimated global cross-sector production volume will be required to supply the shipping sector.
As the shipping industry will compete for carbon-neutral fuels with aviation and road transportation, as well as other industries, the production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives needs to significantly accelerate if the emission reduction goals are to be met. The period of ramping up production of different carbon-neutral fuels may come with uncertainty in supply, and price fluctuations are therefore expected. Thus, fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners to navigate these uncharted waters. In addition to the lack of supply of carbon-neutral fuels, there are other important barriers to decarbonizing shipping. Examples include lack of infrastructure, novel safety risks, lack of competence, immature technology and high costs.
Three-step approach for stakeholders to establish green shipping corridor
This report presents an outlook on green shipping corridors. These can accelerate uptake of carbon neutral fuels by allowing barriers to be identified and overcome in a more targeted and practicable way than on a global scale. We provide a three-step approach for stakeholders within the value chain aiming to establish green shipping corridors. It is based on DNV’s experience over a decade with already existing green shipping corridors in Norway. At the approach’s core is identifying barriers to achieving viable business cases for green shipping corridor partners.
A shipowner navigating these uncharted waters should consider all available decarbonization options, focusing on reduced energy consumption and fuel flexibility in the short term, while also considering a long-term fuel sourcing strategy.
The 2020s is a decisive decade for shipping and the quality and effectiveness of plans put in place now will dictate how successful the maritime industry is in reaching its decarbonization goals over the coming decades.
Note: The full version of the 7th edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.
Related: DNV chooses London to launch its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report
Photo credit: DNV
Published: 14 September, 2023
Digital platform
ZeroNorth enables Golden Island to become Singapore’s first 100% digital bunker supplier
Access to ZeroNorth Bunker Electronic Bunker Delivery Notes (eBDN) will streamline bunker processes, enabling Golden Island to drive efficiency, transparency, and contribute to decarbonising shipping.
Technology company ZeroNorth on Thursday (30 November) has announced that it has enabled its customer Golden Island Diesel Oil Trading Pte Ltd (Golden Island) to become the first marine fuel supplier in Singapore to go 100% digital in its use of Electronic Bunker Delivery Notes (eBDN).
Golden Island has chosen ZeroNorth Bunker’s eBDN solution, developed by BTS and recently consolidated under the ZeroNorth Bunker brand. The company will be able to provide 100% digital processes to increase transparency and improve collaboration.
“Enabled by ZeroNorth’s technology platform, Golden Island plans to stop issuing physical BDNs from 1 December, as part of the company’s digitalisation initiative to move away from manual, paper-based processes and reduce its environmental impact on the journey to greener operations,” ZeroNorth said in a statement shared with Singapore-based bunkering publication Manifold Times.
ZeroNorth’s eBDN service will digitalise the bunker delivery process for its customers, with Golden Island the first to benefit and swiftly and securely verify purchased fuel quantities, eliminate delays and ensure smooth transactions.
“This move will help Golden Island to streamline the bunkering documentation process, increasing transparency, and driving efficiency and productivity across its marine fuel delivery operations. Digitalisation will enhance crew productivity and operational efficiencies. By eliminating paper forms with ZeroNorth’s solution, Golden Island expects to save at least two hours of manual data entry work each day,” ZeroNorth added.
By digitalising the bunkering process, ZeroNorth will turn millions of data points into actionable recommendations for Golden Island on where it can drive efficiencies and achieve greener operations. With more data being interpreted through the digitalisation of BDNs, increasingly robust insights and analysis of emissions will then be generated for customers, further powering up the marine fuel market’s data flywheel. This will also enhance reporting, as information is standardised and readily available in a digital format.
Tomohiro Yamano, General Manager, Marine Fuel Department at Golden Island, said: “A month after the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) launched its digital bunkering initiative as the first port in the world to implement eBDN, we are proud to be the first company to fully switch to eBDN in the Singapore bunkering market. To achieve this, we required a solution that would facilitate a seamless workflow to enhance the productivity and efficiency of our marine fuel delivery operations.
“We were impressed with ZeroNorth’s deep understanding of the bunker industry and the capabilities of its eBDN solution. Digitalising our bunker processes with eBDN fits in with our digitalisation initiative to enhance and streamline operations, which will in turn also drive easier reporting and analysis of emissions.”
Kenneth Juhls, Managing Director for ZeroNorth Bunker at ZeroNorth, said: “Bunker procurement has been a traditionally cumbersome process, burdened by manual documentation. We’re delighted to be helping Golden Island eliminate these manual processes to streamline documentation, drive efficiencies and boost productivity across its operations as a global eBDN solution on the market.
“Given the integral role marine fuels are set to play in decarbonising shipping, ZeroNorth is proud to help our customers and the wider industry digitalise bunker operations. The data generated will in turn help enable the data flywheel effect, driving actionable recommendations on where further efficiencies can be created for the benefit of both profit and planet.”
The first internal trial for Golden Island using ZeroNorth’s eBDN solution began in November 2022. The company is now ready to adopt it into its operations after a year testing the solution, with assistance and approval from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA).
Manifold Times previously reported Singapore bunker supplier Golden Island Diesel Oil Trading Pte Ltd (Golden Island) will be fully adopting the electronic Bunker Delivery Note (e-BDN) for commercial bunkering operations from 1 December 2023 onwards.
ZeroNorth also announced it won the Digitalisation Award at the Marine Fuels 360 Awards Gala Dinner on 29 November.
Commenting on the award, Juhls said: “We are proud and humble to get recognised by this award. The full team in ZeroNorth works hard everyday to bring value to our clients through our software solution. We are looking forward to continuing our collaboration with our customers, partners and the industry in our ambition of making global trade green.”
Related: Singapore: Golden Island switching to 100% e-BDN operations from 1 December
Related: ZeroNorth consolidates existing bunkering business following acquisitions
Related: Singapore set to become first port in the world to debut electronic bunker delivery notes
Related: MPA Chief Executive: Port of Singapore begins digital bunkering initiative today
Related: ZeroNorth acquires Singapore’s bunker supplier software provider BTS
Related: ZeroNorth acquires Prosmar Bunker Dashboard solution and Bunker Pricer module
Related: ZeroNorth acquires US-based bunker market platform ClearLynx
Related: ZeroNorth unveils ZeroNorth Bunker for bunker planning, procurement, and analytics
Related: ZeroNorth opens new office in Singapore to expand in Asia
Related: Singapore: Marine Fuels 360 Awards and Conference 2023 to bring together industry’s best
Photo credit: ZeroNorth / Informa Markets
Published: 30 November, 2023
Biofuel
Kenoil Marine Services to conduct first-ever bunkering of bio-blended LSMGO in Singapore
“Kosmos Lily” is slated to supply bio-blended LSMGO, sourced from Alpha Biofuels, representing the first-ever bunkering of bio-blended LSMGO in Port of Singapore, says Jurong Port.
Newbuilding
SeaTech Solutions and partners to develop India’s first electric tug E-VOLT 50
Other partners involved are India’s GRSE, Shift Clean Energy and ABS; GRSE will build an electric tug based on the E-VOLT 50 design by Singapore-based SeaTech Solutions.
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Singapore: Marine Fuels 360 Awards and Conference 2023 to bring together industry’s best
Methanol Institute publishes first comprehensive guide to methanol as bunker fuel
South Korea to spend USD 155 million to commercialise LNG, ammonia and hydrogen bunker fuels
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Newbuilding1 week agoSingapore: Equatorial Marine Fuel builds four “new generation” methanol-ready bunker tankers
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Technology4 days agoSingapore: Golden Island switching to 100% e-BDN operations from 1 December
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Business1 week agoPS Energy wins runner-up position in Singapore E50 awards, shares bunker expansion plans
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Ammonia2 weeks agoEPS orders up to seven ammonia dual fuel bulkers from CSSC Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding
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Events2 weeks agoSingapore: Marine Fuels 360 Awards and Conference 2023 to bring together industry’s best
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Methanol2 weeks agoMethanol Institute publishes first comprehensive guide to methanol as bunker fuel
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Alternative Fuels2 weeks agoSouth Korea to spend USD 155 million to commercialise LNG, ammonia and hydrogen bunker fuels
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Biofuel1 week agoGS Caltex Singapore sells its first bio-marine gasoil bunker fuel to Maersk Oil Trading