Interview: Nunchi Marine believes Iran war forces a reset in bunker cargo trading

The war involving Iran has pushed the global bunker market into one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory, with Singapore – the world’s largest bunkering hub – feeling the impact.

Once‑reliable supply chains have been disrupted, price volatility has surged to extreme levels, and bunker cargo traders are being forced to abandon long‑standing strategies in favour of defensive, risk‑driven decision‑making.

The sharp reduction in Middle Eastern supply flows has exposed structural vulnerabilities in the market, while suppliers and traders alike have tightened terms amid unprecedented uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, bunker cargo trading has shifted from margin optimisation to survival mode. In this executive interview, Tomas Stacy, Managing Director of Bunker Trading at Singapore-headquartered independent oil cargo and bunker trading company, Nunchi Marine shares how the conflict is reshaping bunker cargo trading, the challenges importers now face, and what it takes to navigate a market defined by scarcity, volatility and risk.

MT: How has the Iran war changed the bunker cargo trading landscape in Singapore?

TS: The change has been structural rather than cyclical. The market is now characterised by extreme price volatility, tighter availability, and far more defensive behaviour from both traders and physical suppliers. The conflict has disrupted a core supply artery into Asia, and that has exposed just how dependent Singapore has been on stable Middle Eastern flows. Trading today is less about optimising margins and more about managing risk and ensuring continuity of supply.

MT: What has been the most immediate impact on bunker cargo importers since the conflict began?

TS: Margin pressure and uncertainty have intensified almost overnight. The sharp drop in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively choked a primary supply source, and that has translated directly into price shocks. Since the war began, VLSFO prices in Singapore have more than doubled, while MGO prices have surged even more sharply. For importers, this has made forward planning extremely difficult and increased exposure on every cargo decision.

MT: Why has the market struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels?

TS: The scale of the disruption is the key issue. The Middle East typically supplies around 1.2 million metric tons of fuel oil per month to Asia, and there is no simple replacement for that volume. Alternative supplies from the Americas or Russia exist, but they are constrained by high freight costs, sanctions, or limited availability. In practical terms, arbitrage opportunities into Singapore have become largely unworkable, leaving the market structurally tight.

MT: How has extreme price volatility changed trading behaviour and supplier relationships?

TS: Volatility has fundamentally altered risk appetite. At the onset of the conflict, prices were moving by as much as $100 to $150 per metric ton in a single day, which makes holding large cargo positions highly risky. In response, physical suppliers have become increasingly defensive—rationing volumes, prioritising long‑standing customers, and avoiding even short‑term term contracts. For traders, this has meant smaller position sizes, shorter, and a much greater emphasis on counterparty strength and reliability.

MT: Beyond price and supply, what risks are now top of mind for bunker cargo traders?

TS: Quality and logistics have moved sharply up the risk agenda. Recent alerts around off‑spec VLSFO in Singapore which were linked to engine damage, have added a new layer of concern for cargo procurement. At the same time, tight supply conditions are beginning to create logistical bottlenecks, with some vessels struggling to secure bunker slots and early signs of congestion appearing at major ports. In this environment, survival depends on disciplined risk management—avoiding long‑term fixed‑price exposure, strengthening supplier relationships, enforcing stricter quality controls, and building greater operational flexibility into voyage planning.

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 March 2026