Mithat Çiftçioğlu, Marine Fuels Director at Alkagesta, shared his opinion on risk management for bunkering operations under current geopolitical tensions through the April edition of shipping magazine Deniz Ticaret.

The maritime publication, part of the Turkish Chamber of Shipping (İMEAK Deniz Ticaret Odası), has given Manifold Times permission to republish the article:

Fueling Ships in Turbulent Times

From Oil Shock to Fuel Access Crisis: A New Risk Map for Maritime 2026

The final weeks of the first quarter of 2026 mark one of the most complex periods in recent years for global energy and maritime markets. The sharp rise in oil and refined product prices since February 28 may look like a classic energy shock at first glance, but developments in the maritime sector point to a far deeper structural rupture.

What is being debated in the market today is no longer just oil prices. For traders and shipowners operating in the maritime sector and bunker market, the real issue is not the price of fuel — it is access to fuel. The fundamental question in the market has shifted: not what will the price of fuel be, but will fuel even be available?

In light of the Force Majeure cancellations at Asian ports over the past two weeks, another question must also be considered: Will pre-agreed bunker supply contracts actually be delivered?

From Oil Prices to Logistical Reality

Tensions in the Middle East have created a strong geopolitical risk premium in the oil market. Brent crude briefly surpassed the $100 per barrel mark, triggering a search for a new equilibrium across markets. This will inevitably bring inflation and recession back onto the global agenda in the months ahead.

But the rise in oil prices does not only reflect the risk of supply disruption — it also signals the return of one of the most fragile chokepoints in global energy trade:

The Strait of Hormuz

Approximately one-third of the world’s oil trade passes through this narrow waterway. Around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transit Hormuz daily. Any disruption here would therefore affect not only oil prices, but also global refined product flows and the bunker market directly.

Why Strategic Oil Reserves Are Not the Solution

A commonly proposed solution in energy crises is the release of strategic petroleum reserves. However, releasing these reserves does not directly resolve a bunker crisis. Strategic reserves consist of crude oil. To produce bunker fuel, the following chain must be completed:

Crude oil → Refinery → Product logistics → Bunker port

This process takes time. Strategic reserves can temporarily stabilize oil prices, but they cannot solve the access problem in the bunker market in the short term.

Furthermore, the announced reserve release of 400 million barrels, to be drawn down at a rate of 2.5–3 million barrels per day, can only cover a small fraction of the estimated daily loss from the Middle East — optimistically 8–10 million barrels, pessimistically 18–20 million barrels per day.

A Historic Surge in Bunker Fuel Prices

The per-ton price of VLSFO (0.5% sulfur) bunker fuel has surpassed $1,000, reaching approximately double pre-war levels. This also represents some of the highest prices seen since July 2022.

While prices at bunker hubs such as Singapore and Fujairah are approaching $1,100 per ton, European markets have remained comparatively lower.

The Real Problem Is Not Price — It Is Fuel Access

Obtaining bunker quotes for April has become increasingly difficult, particularly at Asian ports. Even where shipowners and traders can secure quotes, the absence of supply guarantees makes pricing extremely challenging.

A senior executive at Oldendorff Carriers summarized the situation in these words:

“We cannot price cargo because we cannot calculate fuel costs; we cannot calculate fuel costs because there is no supply guarantee.”

The CEO of Maersk has compared the current situation to the pandemic era, stating that companies are attempting to source fuel through methods they have never tried before in order to keep global shipping networks supplied.

While supply is tight and prices are near their peak in Singapore and Fujairah, Rotterdam appears relatively more balanced. However, as the conflict drags on, risk perception in European markets is also rising.

The surge in bunker prices will not only increase costs — it will also affect global maritime transport capacity. Ships are expected to reduce their speeds to conserve fuel. This could lead to a reduction in effective carrying capacity, creating new logistical bottlenecks in global trade.

The importance of working with reliable, long-term partners has never been more apparent than during a crisis such as this.

The Widening Price Spread Between Fuel Types

A notable development in the bunker market in recent weeks is the rapid widening of price differentials between different fuel types. Two spreads in particular have expanded significantly:

• Marine Gas Oil (MGO) – VLSFO
• VLSFO – HSFO

Rising demand for distillate products, refinery production balances, and regional supply tightness are all contributing to this widening. As a result, bunker purchases have become not merely a matter of price level, but a strategic decision tied to product type and port selection.

An Unexpected Development: Biofuels Becoming Competitive

Another noteworthy development in the bunker market is that biofuels have remained at relatively competitive price levels. This creates two important opportunities for shipowners.

On one hand, biofuels remain competitively priced in certain markets. On the other, they offer a means of compliance with new regulations entering into force in Europe — particularly the FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS frameworks, which require reductions in carbon intensity. In this context, biofuels have become a strategic option for many shipowners.

Conclusion: Active Bunker Management Is The New Normal

The 2026 bunker market presents one of the most complex energy trading environments in recent years. The rise in oil prices, geopolitical risk at the Strait of Hormuz, tightness in physical fuel supply, and widening price spreads between fuel types have made bunker fuel management more critical than ever.

The prevailing view in energy markets is that as long as the risk at the Strait of Hormuz persists, turbulence in the bunker market will persist with it. As time passes, the depletion of commercial stocks may deepen the existing supply tightness further.

For this reason, the current situation is viewed not merely as an energy crisis, but as a new stress scenario testing the logistical infrastructure of global trade.

The view increasingly heard across energy markets is this:

“As long as Hormuz remains closed, it will not be oil prices but fuel access that constitutes the defining risk for global shipping.”

Finally, for shipowners and operators, bunker strategies are shifting away from a passive purchasing approach toward a model grounded in active risk management.

Photo and article credit: Deniz Ticaret
Published: 7 May 2026

The war involving Iran has pushed the global bunker market into one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory, with Singapore – the world’s largest bunkering hub – feeling the impact.

Once‑reliable supply chains have been disrupted, price volatility has surged to extreme levels, and bunker cargo traders are being forced to abandon long‑standing strategies in favour of defensive, risk‑driven decision‑making.

The sharp reduction in Middle Eastern supply flows has exposed structural vulnerabilities in the market, while suppliers and traders alike have tightened terms amid unprecedented uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, bunker cargo trading has shifted from margin optimisation to survival mode. In this executive interview, Tomas Stacy, Managing Director of Bunker Trading at Singapore-headquartered independent oil cargo and bunker trading company, Nunchi Marine shares how the conflict is reshaping bunker cargo trading, the challenges importers now face, and what it takes to navigate a market defined by scarcity, volatility and risk.

MT: How has the Iran war changed the bunker cargo trading landscape in Singapore?

TS: The change has been structural rather than cyclical. The market is now characterised by extreme price volatility, tighter availability, and far more defensive behaviour from both traders and physical suppliers. The conflict has disrupted a core supply artery into Asia, and that has exposed just how dependent Singapore has been on stable Middle Eastern flows. Trading today is less about optimising margins and more about managing risk and ensuring continuity of supply.

MT: What has been the most immediate impact on bunker cargo importers since the conflict began?

TS: Margin pressure and uncertainty have intensified almost overnight. The sharp drop in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively choked a primary supply source, and that has translated directly into price shocks. Since the war began, VLSFO prices in Singapore have more than doubled, while MGO prices have surged even more sharply. For importers, this has made forward planning extremely difficult and increased exposure on every cargo decision.

MT: Why has the market struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels?

TS: The scale of the disruption is the key issue. The Middle East typically supplies around 1.2 million metric tons of fuel oil per month to Asia, and there is no simple replacement for that volume. Alternative supplies from the Americas or Russia exist, but they are constrained by high freight costs, sanctions, or limited availability. In practical terms, arbitrage opportunities into Singapore have become largely unworkable, leaving the market structurally tight.

MT: How has extreme price volatility changed trading behaviour and supplier relationships?

TS: Volatility has fundamentally altered risk appetite. At the onset of the conflict, prices were moving by as much as $100 to $150 per metric ton in a single day, which makes holding large cargo positions highly risky. In response, physical suppliers have become increasingly defensive—rationing volumes, prioritising long‑standing customers, and avoiding even short‑term term contracts. For traders, this has meant smaller position sizes, shorter, and a much greater emphasis on counterparty strength and reliability.

MT: Beyond price and supply, what risks are now top of mind for bunker cargo traders?

TS: Quality and logistics have moved sharply up the risk agenda. Recent alerts around off‑spec VLSFO in Singapore which were linked to engine damage, have added a new layer of concern for cargo procurement. At the same time, tight supply conditions are beginning to create logistical bottlenecks, with some vessels struggling to secure bunker slots and early signs of congestion appearing at major ports. In this environment, survival depends on disciplined risk management—avoiding long‑term fixed‑price exposure, strengthening supplier relationships, enforcing stricter quality controls, and building greater operational flexibility into voyage planning.

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 March 2026

Asia Pacific Maritime (APM) 2026 kicked off on Wednesday (25 March) to a record-breaking turnout, with its largest-ever edition occupying 6 exhibition halls across 2 levels at the Sands Expo & Convention Centre, Marina Bay Sands Singapore. 

Bringing together 819 exhibitors, including 20 international pavilions, the 19th edition sets the stage for three days of industry dialogue, innovation & tech breakthroughs in maritime collaboration, under the theme “Future of Vessels, Solutions for Tomorrow”.

The event opened with a welcome address by Guest-of-Honour Ang Wee Keong, Chief Executive of the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), who emphasised the sector’s resilience and its ability to turn current challenges into opportunities for innovation and sustainable growth.

He said: “We’ve dealt with so many changes over the years, and apart from geopolitical uncertainties, we’ve also been working on things like supply chain disruptions, rapid technological advances. 

“These are all things we have been working together to prepare our sector and make sure we future-proof the maritime and marine sector. Today we are looking at things like automation, artificial intelligence, as well as alternative fuels and propulsion technologies, all while maintaining safety and reliability, which is a core mission for all of us.”

Setting the tone for Day 1 discussions, the keynote panel, “The Maritime State of Play & What’s Next for Asia”, brought together industry leaders to discuss how maritime leaders are responding to rising geopolitical tensions, fuel and cost volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and the long investment cycles of shipping assets. 

Highlighting the immediate impact of ongoing disruptions, SK Lim, Managing Director, Pacific, G2 Ocean, said: “For those out there who have not realised it yet, you are going to start paying more for everything that you buy, consume, and wear. Every carrier is imposing a surcharge from bunker to emergency.” 

While Ben Pike, COO, Swire Shipping, emphasised the importance of staying focused amid continued uncertainty, noting that “disruption and volatility is just the new norm. I think over the last five or six years, we’ve just got used to this now.” 

“We have our long-term strategies, our long-term goals and visions, and then we take sort of more of a tactical approach in terms of how we deal with the day-to-day issues,” he added.

Collaboration also took centre stage, with multiple agreements announced during the day. Among the highlights, Siemens Energy and Marco Polo Shipyard announced a collaboration to advance next-generation hybrid-electric fleet technology for offshore wind support vessels. The collaboration will see Siemens Energy’s integrated BlueDrive PlusC system deployed in a new class of hybrid-electric vessels, combining propulsion, energy storage and intelligent power management to deliver 20–30% reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. 

Designed as a first-of-its-kind CSOV Plus vessel supporting both offshore wind and oil & gas operations, the initiative underscores how cross-sector collaboration is accelerating the development of scalable, low-emission vessel solutions, while strengthening Asia’s capabilities in supporting the growing offshore renewables market.

Marking a significant launch at APM 2026, Electric & Hybrid Power is dedicated to spotlighting practical solutions and technologies driving electrification in vessels, a definitive step towards cleaner and more efficient vessel operation. Among the solution providers, several new product highlights include:

• Korindo Energy will showcase its SCANIA E-Machine, a hybrid and fully electrified configuration designed to support vessel electrification. The compact, modular electric drive system can operate alongside combustion engines or function as a fully electric propulsion unit, enabling flexible transition pathways for shipowners. Live demonstrations of the SCANIA E-Machine took place at stand E-K12, on 25 March, allowing visitors to experience its integration capabilities and modular battery systems firsthand.
• Volvo Penta introduced its IPS Professional Platform to the Southeast Asia market, marking the next evolution of its integrated propulsion system for larger commercial vessels. Designed with a future-ready dual-power-input concept, the platform also delivers up to a 30% reduction in fuel consumption and emissions. See it for yourself at booth B-J10.
• Kuok Maritime Group is advancing the deployment of electric vessels through its development of Singapore’s first fully electric tug, with Coastal Sustainability Alliance (CSA). Albert Tsui, Head of Strategic & Corporate Development, Kuok Maritime Group, presented a case study at the Power Stage (Level 1, Hall C) on 26 March.

These developments build on wider progress in next energy solutions, including Weichai’s testing and certification ceremony following the successful 1,000-hour sea trial of Pinnacle Marine’s (Singapore) President 100, powered entirely by 100% biodiesel, signalling continued progress in the adoption of alternative fuels for commercial vessels. 

Future of electrification in Shipping was also discussed at the Power Stage on 26 March where industry leaders will examine how the sector can transition from pilot projects to large-scale deployment. 

Discussions will be led by DNV, Foreship (A RINA Company), Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping, Sea Forrest and Maritime Battery Forum as they discuss technology readiness, infrastructure development and regulatory frameworks needed to accelerate adoption across different vessel segments.

To further support the industry’s transition, a dedicated Expert Consultation Lounge will anchor the Electric & Hybrid Power segment. Specialists in this area will offer practical insights into the technical, operational and commercial considerations as shipowners, shipyards and operators embark on their journey towards vessel electrification. 

“Electrification is already moving from demonstration to real, operational deployment, particularly in Asia, where we’re seeing strong leadership in battery-electric vessels and supporting infrastructure. The next step is scaling these solutions, and that requires not just technology but alignment across the entire ecosystem. Platforms like the Electric & Hybrid Lounge are critical in bringing together the right stakeholders to have practical, solution-driven conversations on how we move from pilot projects to scaled adoption,” Madadh MacLaine, Secretary General, Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association (ZESTAs).

More key conversations across the programme

APM 2026 will also continue to address the commercial and risk considerations shaping maritime decision-making in these sessions:

• The panel “What Will Unlock Capital for Shipowners in 2026?”, on 27 March, 10:30 – 11:20, will explore how financing priorities are evolving amid tightening decarbonisation targets and shifting market conditions. Industry leaders will examine how access to capital is being influenced by sustainability performance, regulatory compliance and digital transparency, as well as what shipowners must do to remain investable in an increasingly complex environment.
• This will be followed by “Shipping Insurance in an Age of New Risks”, on 27 March, 11:20 – 12:10, which will examine how emerging risks, from cyber threats and climate-related disruptions to heightened geopolitical volatility and new vessel technologies, are reshaping traditional insurance models. The session will explore whether current frameworks remain fit for purpose and how stakeholders can adapt to a rapidly evolving risk landscape.

Note: More information on APM 2026, which will take place until 27 March, can be found here. 

Photo credit: RX Global
Published: 26 March, 2026