Bunker Fuel

DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition

Research investigates bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle shift to carbon-neutral fuels while providing map of present and planned carbon-neutral marine fuel production.

Published

3 years ago

September 14, 2023

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Classification society DNV on Tuesday (12 September) officially launched the 7th edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report in London.

The latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 document provides an independent outlook of shipping’s energy future and examines how the technology and energy transition will affect the industry. DNV investigated bunker fuel production, technology, and green shipping corridors to tackle the shift to carbon-neutral fuels.

The report also provides a valuable mapping of present and planned production of carbon-neutral marine fuels.

The following are important bunkering industry related highlights extracted from the report:

Outlook on ship technologies and bunker fuels

We report and discuss notable trends, developments, and prospects in the fuel technolog transition underway, including:

Half the ordered tonnage can use LNG, LPG or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared with a third last year, but urgent action is needed for training in the use of new fuels.
Wind-assisted propulsion and air lubrication are being installed on more vessels.
Onboard carbon capture and, later, nuclear propulsion can reduce dependence on sustainable
biomass and renewable electricity.

Outlook on alternative fuel production and demand

We assess the future for carbon-neutral fuels for which shipping will compete with other sectors, concluding that:

The estimated demand from shipping to achieve emission reduction goals in 2030 is 30% to 40% of the total world supply of carbon-neutral fuels.
Competition means production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives must accelerate if emission reduction goals are to be met.
Price fluctuations due to supply uncertainty while production of carbon-neutral fuels ramps up mean
fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners during the transition period.

Alternative fuel ship orders

A fuel technology transition is already underway in the maritime industry, with half the ordered tonnage capable of using LNG, LPG, or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared to one third of the tonnage on order last year. For ships in operation, 6.2% of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels, compared to 5.5% last year. The uptake of methanol and LPG is starting to show in the statistics together with the first hydrogen-fuelled newbuilds.

Though several demonstration projects for ammonia-fuelled ships are ongoing, there are no ammonia-fuelled ships in the official order book.

Fuel technology solutions

While the fuel technology transition gathers pace, the search for solutions continues. We know that technology to reduce both energy consumption and the need for expensive fuel will be important. Given the need to understand and have a clear view of all the options, we present an outlook on six selected technologies that are receiving increased attention in the industry: solid oxide fuel cells, liquefied hydrogen, wind-assisted propulsion, air lubrication systems, onboard carbon capture, and nuclear propulsion. With the industry seeing energy-saving technologies as increasingly important, wind-assisted propulsion systems have now been installed on 28 large vessels. Air lubrication systems are installed on or ordered for more than 250 vessels in total.

Carbon capture and nuclear propulsion

Considering onboard carbon capture and nuclear propulsion, we have performed a feasibility study using the FuelPath model of a 15,000 TEU container vessel as a case, benchmarking against fuel oil, LNG, methanol and ammonia. We find that onboard carbon capture can be operationally feasible for a large container vessel using 4,000 cubic metres (m³) of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) storage on board, offloading CO2 twice per trip AsiaEurope, and annually capturing 70% of the carbon dioxide. If the increase in energy use to capture the CO2 can be kept below 15%, and if the cost for offloading, transporting, and sequestering the CO2 is below 40 USD/tonne, onboard carbon capture can be a competitive option for decarbonization.

There are 160, mostly naval, nuclear-powered vessels today, and we find that it is a technically feasible solution for the case study ship, with a reactor and gensets for redundancy and take-me-home functionality. We find that nuclear propulsion can be a competitive option if reactor costs are in the lower range of historical costs for land-based nuclear power plants.

Production of alternative bunker fuels needs to be ramped up

While energy saving will reduce the need for alternative fuels, and both nuclear and onboard carbon capture may alleviate the need for such fuels, we still see that large volumes of carbon-neutral fuels will be needed to decarbonize shipping, and that the production of these fuels will be a key challenge. Currently, only 0.1% of fuels used by merchant shipping are biofuels, while 99.9% are fossil fuels. We present a new and comprehensive global database of more than 2,200 existing and planned production plants for relevant fuels: all biofuels, methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, including bio-, electro-, and blue versions of all fuels.

We find that the probability-adjusted global cross-sector production volume in 2030 is between 44 and 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The estimated demand for carbon-neutral fuel in shipping is 17 Mtoe in 2030, meaning that 30% to 40% of our estimated global cross-sector production volume will be required to supply the shipping sector.

As the shipping industry will compete for carbon-neutral fuels with aviation and road transportation, as well as other industries, the production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives needs to significantly accelerate if the emission reduction goals are to be met. The period of ramping up production of different carbon-neutral fuels may come with uncertainty in supply, and price fluctuations are therefore expected. Thus, fuel flexibility will be key for shipowners to navigate these uncharted waters. In addition to the lack of supply of carbon-neutral fuels, there are other important barriers to decarbonizing shipping. Examples include lack of infrastructure, novel safety risks, lack of competence, immature technology and high costs.

Three-step approach for stakeholders to establish green shipping corridor

This report presents an outlook on green shipping corridors. These can accelerate uptake of carbon neutral fuels by allowing barriers to be identified and overcome in a more targeted and practicable way than on a global scale. We provide a three-step approach for stakeholders within the value chain aiming to establish green shipping corridors. It is based on DNV’s experience over a decade with already existing green shipping corridors in Norway. At the approach’s core is identifying barriers to achieving viable business cases for green shipping corridor partners.

A shipowner navigating these uncharted waters should consider all available decarbonization options, focusing on reduced energy consumption and fuel flexibility in the short term, while also considering a long-term fuel sourcing strategy.

The 2020s is a decisive decade for shipping and the quality and effectiveness of plans put in place now will dictate how successful the maritime industry is in reaching its decarbonization goals over the coming decades.

Note: The full version of the 7th edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 14 September, 2023

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Methanol

World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to “Arctic Tern” via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel “M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan”.

Published

19 hours ago

July 22, 2026

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World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Marine fuel provider World Fuel on Tuesday (21 July) said it successfully completed the first green methanol bunkering of M/V Arctic Tern, with EUKOR Car Carriers and SIPG Energy at the Port of Shanghai.

Arctic Tern is the first vessel in the new Shaper Class series of car carriers.

The operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to Arctic Tern via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan, the largest vessel of its kind in operation.

The bunkering operation was carried out at Haitong Terminal, Waigaoqiao Port Area, Shanghai Port, with cargo handling operations conducted simultaneously during bunkering.

This marks EUKOR Car Carriers’ first green methanol operation and the first time Arctic Tern has bunkered methanol since its delivery on 9 July. The operation marked the first bunkering at Shanghai Port of green methanol produced locally in Shanghai for an international PCTC operator.

It also demonstrated the city’s integrated green methanol value chain, spanning local production, storage and bunkering, and established a replicable “Shanghai Model” for green methanol supply.

World Fuel arranged the supply and delivery of the fuel on behalf of EUKOR Car Carriers, working with SIPG Energy as the physical supplier at the Port of Shanghai.

The green methanol supplied was produced from municipal solid waste, ISCC-EU certified, and had a carbon intensity value below 25 gCO₂e/MJ.

Arctic Tern is the first of fourteen Shaper Class vessels ordered by Wallenius Wilhelmsen. With a capacity of 9,300 car equivalent units and methanol dual-fuel capability, the vessel will be operated by EUKOR Car Carriers, jointly owned by Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Hyundai Motor Group. Following her first green methanol bunkering, Arctic Tern will continue her maiden voyage from Asia to Europe.

Xavier Leroi, COO Shipping Services at Wallenius Wilhelmsen and CEO of EUKOR Car Carriers, said: “Completing Arctic Tern’s first green methanol bunkering shortly after delivery is a significant milestone towards our decarbonisation ambition for both EUKOR Car Carriers and Wallenius Wilhelmsen. It demonstrates how investments in next-generation vessel technology and fuel flexibility are being translated into real-world operations.

“This achievement reflects the strong collaboration between all parties involved. Together, we have shown how partnerships across the maritime value chain can help make lower-emission fuels available and operationally viable at scale.”

Mark Tamsitt, SVP Global Marine Sales at World Fuel, said, “The first bunkering event with a new fuel is a significant moment for any shipowner, and our role is to make it as seamless as possible. By connecting EUKOR Car Carriers with SIPG Energy’s proven green methanol capability at the Port of Shanghai, we were able to deliver on reliable supply, fuel quality, and safe processes. As more of our customers bring methanol dual-fuel tonnage into service, we are committed to being the partner that makes these kinds of operations routine.”

Mr. Zhang Da, General Manager of SIPG Energy, said, “Welcoming Arctic Tern to the Port of Shanghai for her first green methanol bunkering demonstrates the strength and maturity of our supply capability. Building on our well-established methanol ship-to-ship bunkering services for container vessels, we have already extended such services to pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). This bunkering sets a new record for the largest single SIMOPs green methanol bunkering for PCTCs in China, marking another step in building Shanghai’s position as a global green energy hub for international shipping.”

This operation follows Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s announcement on 9 July that Arctic Tern would complete her first methanol bunkering shortly after delivery. The vessel entered service on routes between Asia and Europe immediately following handover from China Merchants Jinling Shipyard in Nanjing.

Photo credit: World Fuel
Published: 22 July, 2026

Ammonia

HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

HPA says the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

Published

19 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Admin

HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

The Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) and integrated energy company MB Energy on Tuesday (21 July) said they have completed a comprehensive risk analysis and developed a dedicated safety concept for ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering.

MB Energy said the analysis lays the groundwork for the safe introduction of ammonia as a future marine fuel.

“With our planned ammonia import terminal in Hamburg-Blumensand, MB Energy intends to provide the reliable land side supply infrastructure needed to support this transition across northern German ports,” it said in a social media post.

Mabanaft Group was renamed to MB Energy last year and merged over 50 existing brands under one identity.

Separately, HPA said the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

“The focus is in particular on container ships, cruise ships as well as RoRo and ConRo (Container/RoRo) ships,” it said.

“We expect ammonia to establish itself as an alternative marine marine fuel in the coming years. With our preparatory work, we are already creating the conditions to welcome the first ammonia-powered ships in Hamburg and to bunker them safely.:

HPA added that the import terminal for ammonia planned by MB Energy from 2029 will make a decisive contribution to ensuring the reliable availability of ammonia as a bunker fuel in northern German ports in the long term.

“The use of an ammonia bunker barge is considered a possible addition to the landside infrastructure to enable ship bunkering in the port and beyond in the future,” it said.

Photo credit: Hamburg Port Authority
Published: 22 July, 2026

Bunker Fuel

Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

Darren Lee Axisa discusses the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub.

Published

19 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Admin

Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

In an article published on Alkagesta Market Insights, Darren Lee Axisa, Malta Country Manager of Alkagesta, on Monday (20 July) discussed the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub:

Malta’s bunkering and energy market is moving through a period of structural adjustment. The disruptions that defined the first half of 2026 have accelerated shifts in product demand, terminal strategy, and the competitive dynamics of one of the Mediterranean’s most strategically positioned bunkering hubs. For Alkagesta, whose storage footprint on the island approaches 300,000 cubic metres, the period has tested operational flexibility while reinforcing the value of diversified infrastructure access.

A Market Shifting in Two Directions

Malta’s broader economy has remained resilient — GDP growth reached 3.9% in Q1 2026 — but the bunkering market has undergone a significant product mix shift, the roots of which predate the current geopolitical disruption.

The Mediterranean Emission Control Area, which came into force on 1 May 2025, triggered an immediate and measurable realignment in fuel demand across the region. VPS data covering the first six months post-ECA implementation shows that across the top ten Mediterranean bunkering ports, VLSFO volumes fell 23%, MGO more than doubled, ULSFO quadrupled, and biofuels increased fivefold. In Valletta specifically, the shift was even more pronounced: VLSFO dropped 57% from 111,641 mt to 47,732 mt, while MGO volumes more than tripled from 33,299 mt to 103,445 mt, and ULSFO rose from 2,821 mt to 34,535 mt over the same period.

This structural rotation has been further accelerated by the broader regulatory environment. FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS requirements are pushing shipowners toward cleaner, verifiable fuel options at every port call — a direction Alkagesta had already positioned itself ahead of, having been among the first movers in the Mediterranean to support the transition to 0.1% sulphur fuel oil following the ECA’s introduction.

Layered on top of this regulatory shift has been a period of reduced terminal capacity affecting bunkering market availability across the island. Fuel oil volumes dropped roughly 35% year-on-year between January and May 2026, falling from approximately 382,000 mt in 2025 to 247,000 mt. DMA demand moved sharply in the opposite direction, rising from around 150,000 mt in January to April 2025 to 247,000 mt over the same period in 2026 — a trend consistent with both the ECA-driven product mix shift and the disruption to heavier fuel availability during the constrained period.

Note: The full article can be read here.

Photo credit: Alkagesta
Published: 22 July, 2026