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DNV: Maritime fuel mix by 2050 projected to consists of 84% alternative bunker fuels

Maritime fuel mix composition by 2050 will be shifting away from the predominantly oil-based fuel mix of today and mainly encompass 84% of low- and/or zero-carbon marine fuels, says new DNV report.

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The composition of the maritime fuel mix by 2050 will be shifting away from the predominantly oil-based fuel mix today and mainly encompass 84% of low- and/or zero-carbon fuels, according to classification society DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook report.

Among the low- and zero-carbon fuels, ammonia is projected to command the largest share (36%), followed by biofuel at 25% and e-fuels at 19%, according to the report, which was published on Wednesday (11 October).

The role of electricity is anticipated to be minimal at 4%. This extensive shift in fuel types will be bolstered by region-specific decarbonization initiatives.

DNV noted the view on the maritime sector's ability to decarbonize has progressed rapidly over the last five years, pushed by the IMO's decarbonization strategy introduced in 2018 and revised in 2023.

“A shift in mindset within the sector towards shouldering its part of the net-zero challenge is evident, and will help to drive a significant change in fuel composition over the coming decades,” it said in the report.

However, DNV said the fuel switch in the maritime industry depends on many factors such as advanced biofuel availability and sufficient availability of renewable hydrogen for e-fuel production. 

Those uncertainty factors are captured in DNV’s 2022 version of the Maritime Forecast to 2050 where 24 scenarios for the maritime sector's future fuel mix are outlined.

“Based on the updated IMO strategy and a push from both charterers and regulators such as the EU, our main ETO 2023 has a more decarbonized fuel mix than last year’s forecast. Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations,” it said.

“Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations.”

DNV said the fuel mix forecast for maritime illustrated in Figure 1.11 is a result of its best estimate assessment and not the result of a cost competition-based model output. 

Screenshot 2023 10 12 at 12.10.56 PM

“This implies that our view on the maritime fuel mix to 2050 holds significant uncertainties, partly described above and more fully detailed in DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050.

The report also found that limiting global warming to 1.5°C warming is less likely than ever.

“To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions would need to halve by 2030, but DNV forecasts that this will not even happen by 2050. CO2 emissions will be only 4% lower than today in 2030 and 46% lower by midcentury. Energy related CO2 emissions are still hitting record highs and are only likely to peak in 2024, which is effectively the point at which the global energy transition begins,” the classification society said.

“Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Clearly, the energy transition has begun at a sector, national, and community level, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher next year.”

Note: The full report of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook can be found here while the executive summary can be found here.

Related: DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition
Related: DNV Maritime CEO urges shipping industry to take more action and move faster in bid to decarbonise
Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 12 October, 2023

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Bunker Fuel

Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 9.1% on year in January 2025

4.46 million mt of various marine fuel grades were delivered at the world’s largest bunkering port in January, a drop from 4.91 million mt recorded during the similar month in 2024, according to MPA data.

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Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 9.1% on year in January 2025

Sales of marine fuel at Singapore port decreased by 9.1% on year in January 2025, according to Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) data.

In total, 4.46 million metric tonnes (mt) (exact 4,461,710 mt) of various marine fuel grades were delivered at the world’s largest bunkering port in January, a drop from 4.91 million mt (4,906,100 mt) recorded during the similar month in 2024.

Deliveries of marine fuel oil, low sulphur fuel oil, ultra low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and marine diesel oil in January (against on year) recorded respectively 1.66 million mt (zero from 1.66 million mt), 2.43 million mt (-15% from 2.86 million mt), 900 (+100% from zero), 3,100 mt (-77% from 13,500 mt) and zero (from zero).

Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 9.1% on year in January 2025

Bio-blended variants of marine fuel oil, low sulphur fuel oil, ultra low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and marine diesel oil in January (against on year) recorded respectively 16,000 (+100% from zero), 92,000 mt (+103% from 45,300 mt), zero (from zero), zero (from zero) and zero (from zero).

LNG and methanol sales were posted respectively at 6,600 mt (-36.5% from 10,400) and zero (from zero).

A complete series of articles on Singapore bunker volumes by Manifold Times in 2024 can be found below:

Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 5.2% on year in December 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales gain by 4.6% on year in November 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales gain by 10.8% on year in October 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales continue to increase by 2.8% on year in September 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales increase by 7.2% on year in August 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales up by 3.3% on year in July 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales gain 8.7% in June 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales increase by 6.7% in May 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales down by 0.6% on year in April 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales increase by 6.4% on year in March 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales up by 18.8% on year in February 2024
Related: Singapore: Bunker fuel sales up by 12.1% on year in January 2024

 

Photo credit: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore
Published: 14 February, 2025

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Bunker Fuel

Singapore-based Straits Bio-LNG aims to deliver 250,000 mt of bio-LNG bunker fuel per year

Firm is currently in advanced stage of testing breaking down Empty Fruit Bunch through an established biological process with high enzyme concentration in its R&D facility in Malaysia to produce bio-LNG.

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Singapore-based Straits Bio-LNG aims to deliver 250,000 mt of bio-LNG bunker fuel per year

Straits Bio-LNG, a privately owned supplier of bio-LNG, is aiming to deliver 250,000 metric tonnes (mt) of bio-LNG per year in Singapore, according to SEA-LNG on Thursday (13 February).

The Singapore-based company, led by SK Tan as CEO, is doing so in response to the growing demand for LNG. LNG bunkering volumes have grown significantly in key bunkering hubs as more LNG-fuelled vessels have entered into operation. 

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) saw a dramatic four-fold increase in 2024 to almost 340,000 mt, SEA-LNG said in a statement announcing Straits Bio-LNG joining the coalition. 

Headquartered in Singapore, the company boasts a growing team led by SK Tan as CEO.  

Yiyong He, Director at Straits Bio-LNG, said: “We’re firmly convinced in the viability of the LNG pathway to decarbonise the shipping industry. With its very low carbon intensity and improving commerciality, liquified biomethane will be a critical piece of the puzzle for decarbonising the sector.”

“By joining SEA-LNG, we’re proud to be part of a collection of first movers making real strides to make the LNG pathway a tangible reality today.”

Straits Bio-LNG aims to reach its bio-LNG supply goal by using pioneering methods. It is currently in the advanced stage of testing breaking down Empty Fruit Bunch (EFB) through an established biological process with high enzyme concentration in its R&D facility in Malaysia. 

Both Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) and EFB are sustainable biomass resources listed in the “List of Materials Eligible for ISCC EU Certification” and are therefore compliant with the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED).

Peter Keller, chairman of SEA-LNG, added: “The Port of Singapore is the largest global bunkering hub. As seen in our View from the Bridge report, 2024 saw record growth in LNG and liquified biomethane bunkering, but we need more fuel to meet upcoming demand.”

“The use of liquefied biomethane as a marine fuel can reduce GHG emissions by up to 80% compared to marine diesel on a full well-to-wake basis. When produced from the anaerobic digestion of waste materials, such as manure, POME or EFB, methane that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere is captured, resulting in negative emissions of up to -190% compared with diesel."

An independent study by the Maritime Energy and Sustainable Development Centre of Excellence at Nanyang Technical University in Singapore found that pure bio-LNG could cover up to 13% of the total energy demand for shipping fuels in 2050, rising to 63% for a 20% blending ratio. 

SEA-LNG added MPA has firmly established itself as a leader in the LNG pathway, with suppliers such as Straits Bio-LNG reinforcing this position. 

Recently, the port launched an Expression of Interest (EOI) to explore scalable solutions for sea-based LNG reloading to complement the existing onshore LNG bunkering storage and jetty capacities and the supply of e/bio-methane as marine fuel in the Port of Singapore.

“Straits Bio-LNG will play a critical role in furthering the expansion of liquified biomethane at scale to meet the demand and continuing to showcase the LNG pathway as a practical and realistic solution for shipowners to decarbonise their operations, starting today,” it said. 

Related: Singapore: MPA launches EOI to expand LNG bunkering services amid growing demand

 

Photo credit: Straits Bio-LNG
Published: 14 February, 2025

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Alternative Fuels

South Korea to invest USD 154 million into construction of environment-friendly ships

Government, local governments, and public institutions plan to invest approximately KRW 222.3 billion (USD 154 million) to support the building or conversion of 81 environment-friendly ships.

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RESIZED Lauren Seo on Unsplash

The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (MOF) Tuesday (11 February) announced that it has prepared the 2025 Implementation Plan for Environment-Friendly Ship Distribution in accordance with the first Master Plan for Environment-Friendly Ship Development and Distribution (2021-2030).

The government enacted the Act on the Promotion of Development and Distribution of Environment-Friendly Ships in December 2018 to mandate the public sector to build environment-friendly ships and provide the private sector with a legal basis to reduce acquisition taxes and provide subsidies when converting into environment-friendly ships. 

As a result, 199 ships were converted into environment-friendly ships as of last year.

This year, the government, local governments, and public institutions plan to invest approximately KRW 222.3 billion (USD 154 million) to support the building or conversion of 81 environment-friendly ships.

The public sector plans to build a total of 34 environment-friendly vessels, including electric-powered or hybrid ships, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, 15 operating ships will be equipped with diesel particulate filters (DPF) to reduce fine dust emissions.

In the private sector, support will be provided for building 20 ships in keeping with the demand for transitioning to environment-friendly vessels. Financial assistance such as secondary financing will continue to be offered as well for 12 vessels for installing environment-friendly equipment.

Meanwhile, applications for the 2025 First Phase of the Certified Environment-Friendly Vessel Supply Support Project will be accepted from 31  January 31 to 27 March to support the construction of environment-friendly vessels by small and medium-sized coastal shipping companies operating in domestic ports.

Eligible applicants include coastal shipping companies that order certified environment-friendly vessels such as electric-powered or liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fuelled ships. Selected applicants can receive subsidies of up to 30% of the ship's construction cost depending on the certification grade and vessel construction expenses.

“We will make generous investments in small and medium-sized shipping companies to convert into environment-friendly ships, drastically reduce greenhouse gases in the shipping industry, and proactively respond to strengthening international decarbonization regulations,” Minister Kang Do-hyung said.

 

Photo credit: Lauren Seo on Unsplash
Published: 14 February, 2025

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