DNV: Maritime fuel mix by 2050 projected to consists of 84% alternative bunker fuels

The composition of the maritime fuel mix by 2050 will be shifting away from the predominantly oil-based fuel mix today and mainly encompass 84% of low- and/or zero-carbon fuels, according to classification society DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook report.

Among the low- and zero-carbon fuels, ammonia is projected to command the largest share (36%), followed by biofuel at 25% and e-fuels at 19%, according to the report, which was published on Wednesday (11 October).

The role of electricity is anticipated to be minimal at 4%. This extensive shift in fuel types will be bolstered by region-specific decarbonization initiatives.

DNV noted the view on the maritime sector’s ability to decarbonize has progressed rapidly over the last five years, pushed by the IMO’s decarbonization strategy introduced in 2018 and revised in 2023.

“A shift in mindset within the sector towards shouldering its part of the net-zero challenge is evident, and will help to drive a significant change in fuel composition over the coming decades,” it said in the report.

However, DNV said the fuel switch in the maritime industry depends on many factors such as advanced biofuel availability and sufficient availability of renewable hydrogen for e-fuel production. 

Those uncertainty factors are captured in DNV’s 2022 version of the Maritime Forecast to 2050 where 24 scenarios for the maritime sector’s future fuel mix are outlined.

“Based on the updated IMO strategy and a push from both charterers and regulators such as the EU, our main ETO 2023 has a more decarbonized fuel mix than last year’s forecast. Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations,” it said.

“Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations.”

DNV said the fuel mix forecast for maritime illustrated in Figure 1.11 is a result of its best estimate assessment and not the result of a cost competition-based model output. 

“This implies that our view on the maritime fuel mix to 2050 holds significant uncertainties, partly described above and more fully detailed in DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050.”

The report also found that limiting global warming to 1.5°C warming is less likely than ever.

“To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions would need to halve by 2030, but DNV forecasts that this will not even happen by 2050. CO2 emissions will be only 4% lower than today in 2030 and 46% lower by midcentury. Energy related CO2 emissions are still hitting record highs and are only likely to peak in 2024, which is effectively the point at which the global energy transition begins,” the classification society said.

“Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Clearly, the energy transition has begun at a sector, national, and community level, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher next year.”

Note: The full report of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook can be found here while the executive summary can be found here.

Related: DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition
Related: DNV Maritime CEO urges shipping industry to take more action and move faster in bid to decarbonise
Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 12 October, 2023