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DNV: Maritime fuel mix by 2050 projected to consists of 84% alternative bunker fuels

Maritime fuel mix composition by 2050 will be shifting away from the predominantly oil-based fuel mix of today and mainly encompass 84% of low- and/or zero-carbon marine fuels, says new DNV report.

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The composition of the maritime fuel mix by 2050 will be shifting away from the predominantly oil-based fuel mix today and mainly encompass 84% of low- and/or zero-carbon fuels, according to classification society DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook report.

Among the low- and zero-carbon fuels, ammonia is projected to command the largest share (36%), followed by biofuel at 25% and e-fuels at 19%, according to the report, which was published on Wednesday (11 October).

The role of electricity is anticipated to be minimal at 4%. This extensive shift in fuel types will be bolstered by region-specific decarbonization initiatives.

DNV noted the view on the maritime sector’s ability to decarbonize has progressed rapidly over the last five years, pushed by the IMO’s decarbonization strategy introduced in 2018 and revised in 2023.

“A shift in mindset within the sector towards shouldering its part of the net-zero challenge is evident, and will help to drive a significant change in fuel composition over the coming decades,” it said in the report.

However, DNV said the fuel switch in the maritime industry depends on many factors such as advanced biofuel availability and sufficient availability of renewable hydrogen for e-fuel production. 

Those uncertainty factors are captured in DNV’s 2022 version of the Maritime Forecast to 2050 where 24 scenarios for the maritime sector’s future fuel mix are outlined.

“Based on the updated IMO strategy and a push from both charterers and regulators such as the EU, our main ETO 2023 has a more decarbonized fuel mix than last year’s forecast. Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations,” it said.

“Nevertheless, this forecast acknowledges that the IMO ambitions lack enforcement mechanisms and might not be fully met, as the ambitions have yet to be translated to ship-specific regulations.”

DNV said the fuel mix forecast for maritime illustrated in Figure 1.11 is a result of its best estimate assessment and not the result of a cost competition-based model output. 

Screenshot 2023 10 12 at 12.10.56 PM

“This implies that our view on the maritime fuel mix to 2050 holds significant uncertainties, partly described above and more fully detailed in DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050.

The report also found that limiting global warming to 1.5°C warming is less likely than ever.

“To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions would need to halve by 2030, but DNV forecasts that this will not even happen by 2050. CO2 emissions will be only 4% lower than today in 2030 and 46% lower by midcentury. Energy related CO2 emissions are still hitting record highs and are only likely to peak in 2024, which is effectively the point at which the global energy transition begins,” the classification society said.

“Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Clearly, the energy transition has begun at a sector, national, and community level, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher next year.”

Note: The full report of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook can be found here while the executive summary can be found here.

Related: DNV ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report examines shipping’s energy future and role of technology in energy transition
Related: DNV Maritime CEO urges shipping industry to take more action and move faster in bid to decarbonise
Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 12 October, 2023

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Biofuel

Chimbusco and SPG complete first biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China

Chimbusco’s “DA YUAN YOU 8” tanker refuelled the “HMM VANCOUVER” with 1,300 metric tonnes of B24 biofuel at Qingdao Port.

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Chimbusco and SPG achieves first biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China

China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co Ltd (Chimbusco) and Shandong Port Group (SPG) recently said they successfully completed the first B24 biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China on 14 June.

Chimbusco’s “DA YUAN YOU 8 ” tanker refuelled the “HMM VANCOUVER” with 1,300 metric tonnes (mt) of B24 biofuel at Qingdao Port.

Chimbusco said the successful bunkering operation not only marks a milestone in the bonded biofuel bunkering business for international voyage vessels in northern China but also represents a critical milestone in the green and low-carbon transformation of the shipping industry around the Bohai Sea and throughout northern China. 

B24 biofuel is a blend of 24% waste cooking oil and 76% high-sulphur fuel oil. Authoritatively certified, the company said this fuel can significantly reduce carbon emissions from vessel operations by up to 20%, providing shipowners with an efficient and convenient low-carbon solution to comply with increasingly stringent International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction regulations. 

Since the beginning of this year, Chimbusco said it has achieved top records of bunkering volumes in the green fuel sector. From the first successful operation at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in eastern China to subsequent bunkering operations in Shenzhen, Xiamen, and other major ports across the country, the company has further consolidated its regular supply capabilities. 

During this in-depth cooperation with SPG’s Qingdao Port, Chimbusco’s “Green Energy Label” made its debut at the operation site. 

“This further confirms that Chimbusco is deploying green fuel bunkering services to help Chinese ports accelerate the construction of a maritime green energy supply network,” the company said. 

 

Photo credit: Shandong Port Group
Published: 20 June, 2025

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Ammonia

Korea to develop global standards for discharge of toxic effluent from ammonia-fuelled ships

KR and major Korean shipyards such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Samho and Samsung Heavy Industries will be part of the group.

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Korea to develop global standards for discharge of toxic effluent from ammonia-fuelled ships

Classification society Korean Register (KR) said it has launched a joint working group to establish international standards for the safe discharge of toxic ammonia effluent generated from ammonia-fuelled ships.

Major Korean shipyards such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Samho, Samsung Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, and the Korea Testing & Research Institute (KTR) will be part of the group. 

KR said ammonia is attracting attention as an eco-friendly alternative fuel that does not emit carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, but due to its strong toxicity and concerns about marine pollution, it is essential to establish separate safety standards. 

In particular, ammonia effluent generated from wet treatment systems currently has no clear treatment standards, which causes considerable technical and operational uncertainty in ship design and operation.

Accordingly, the group aims to establish international standards related to the storage, treatment, and discharge of ammonia wastewater generated from ships and to officially propose this to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) through the Korean government.

The launch of this consultative body is a follow-up measure to a proposal by KR and the Korean government to the IMO in 2024 for the need to establish safety standards for ammonia effluent, which was officially approved at the 83rd IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in April 2025. The group plans to propose a draft standard to the IMO in 2026 and lead international discussions.

Kim Tae-seong, Head of the KTR headquarters, said: “We will provide reliable scientific data to establish ammonia wastewater management guidelines and treatment standards. We will actively cooperate to secure the international competitiveness of the domestic shipbuilding and shipping industries.”
Kim Kyung-bok, Vice President of KR, said: “This consultative body is a symbolic case of our shipbuilding and shipping industries joining forces to lead the establishment of international safety standards based on our country’s advanced technologies.”

“KR will continue to support the development of alternative fuel safety standards and international standardisation efforts together with our government.”

 

Photo credit: Korean Register
Published: 20 June, 2025

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Alternative Fuels

Fratelli Cosulich and IINO Lines to collaborate on alternative bunker fuels

Fratelli Cosulich Marine Energy and IINO Lines signed a MoU, setting a foundation for further collaboration in the areas of methanol, LNG, and ammonia bunkering.

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Fratelli Cosulich Marine Energy and IINO Lines on Thursday (19 June) announced a strategic cooperation that reinforces their shared commitment to the decarbonisation of the maritime industry.

The two companies have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore new business opportunities in the alternative marine fuels sector. 

“This agreement marks a significant step in the long-standing relationship between the two companies and sets the foundation for further collaboration in the areas of methanol, LNG, and ammonia bunkering,” Fratelli Cosulich said. 

Through the MoU, the parties will engage in joint initiatives, exchange market insights, and facilitate connections with potential suppliers and stakeholders in the alternative fuels space. 

“We are proud to announce the partnership with Fratelli Cosulich for initiatives in alternative marine fuels. Both companies have extensive history in the shipping industry,” said Yusuke Otani, President of IINO Lines. 

“The joint development will enable a holistic approach for building a supply chain of alternative marine fuels.”

“As we navigate the energy transition, partnerships like the one we announce today with IINO Lines are essential in shaping the future of sustainable shipping,” said Timothy Cosulich, CEO of Fratelli Cosulich Group. 

“By combining our expertise and resources, we aim to drive the adoption of cleaner marine fuels and contribute to the decarbonization of global shipping.”

 

Photo credit: Scott Graham
Published: 20 June, 2025

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