Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios, said classification society DNV on Thursday (27 August). 

According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said: “Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”

Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit. A case study of a hydrodynamic measures retrofit on a 5,000 TEU container vessel showed potential annual fuel savings of 16%, with a payback time of around one to four years depending on future fuel prices. Retrofits can add similar value across many ship types and with sufficient planning can typically be completed during a standard class-renewal dry docking.

The development of the marine low-GHG fuel market remains a key challenge. While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.

Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share. However, the cost of reducing emissions varies significantly between fuel pathways, with abatement costs ranging from about 180 to 1,290 USD per tonne of CO₂ avoided, highlighting the importance of regulation and market incentives in enabling low-GHG fuel markets to develop.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, said: “Scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and consequently, GHG emissions. By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve. Strategies that each owner chooses will also be dependent on their fleet type and operating context.”

Key findings from the report: 

• Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
• With global regulatory incentives in place, the world-fleet could consume 25% less energy by 2050 than under a scenario limited to regional regulations.
• Energy efficiency can pay off regardless of regulatory outcome – 5,000 TEU container ship case study shows 16% annual fuel savings from hydrodynamic measures retrofit.
• Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and the availability of these fuels in a competitive global market.
• Current project pipelines indicate that a maximum of 270 Mtoe of supply could be available by 2030, though actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share.
• Testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition. Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Note: DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be found here. 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 28 August, 2026

Classification society ClassNK on Tuesday (18 August) said it has revised the safety requirements within its guidelines for ships using methanol, ethanol and hydrogen as marine fuels. 

In Part D of the guidelines, covering hydrogen-fuelled ships, the revision incorporates the Interim Guidelines for the Safety of Ships Using Hydrogen as Fuel (MSC.1/Circ.1701) issued by the IMO this year, and additionally introduces a hydrogen leak frequency table that can be used for the safety assessments required under the IMO guidelines. 

In Part A, covering methanol and ethanol-fuelled ships, new structural strength requirements for methanol/ethanol fuel tanks—which are not addressed in the IMO guidelines—have been established. 

“Through this revision, shipyards, designers, and shipowners can carry out design and safety assessments in line with the latest international standards, and by utilizing ClassNK’s own leak frequency estimates and the relevant requirements, they can proceed the development of alternative-fuelled ships in a more rationally,” ClassNK said in a statement. 

As the building of alternative-fuelled ships advances in response to the global challenge of reducing GHG emissions, ClassNK has comprehensively compiled the safety requirements for ships using methanol, ethanol, LPG, ammonia, and hydrogen—fuels regarded as promising alternatives—and has issued the guidelines. 

“Taking into account the risks that the use of alternative fuels poses to the environment, seafarers, and ships, the guidelines set out requirements for equipment, controls, and safety devices to minimize such risks,” it added. 

With the issuance of the IMO guidelines for hydrogen-fueled ships (MSC.1/Circ.1701), ClassNK said it has fully incorporated the IMO guidelines to make the guidelines more user-friendly for shipyards, designers, and shipowners, while also enhancing the requirements serving as design and assessment guidance for other alternative fuels. 

In the development of the IMO guidelines, now reflected in Part D, ClassNK participated as a member of the Japanese delegation to the IMO Sub-Committee CCC 11 and contributed to the discussions.

Note: The Guidelines for Ships Using Alternative Fuels (Edition 3.1)  can be viewed under “Guidelines” on My Page by registering as a user on the ClassNK website. 

Photo credit: Venti Views on Unsplash
Published: 20 August, 2026

As interest in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to grow across the maritime industry, many organizations are exploring how the technology can be applied in practice. At the same time, questions remain around data quality, workforce readiness, trust and the practical challenges of scaling AI beyond pilot projects.

In this Q&A, Dr. Piyush Raj, Head of Maritime Technology & Innovation, DNV Maritime Advisory, and trainer at DNV Maritime Academy (Singapore), shares his perspectives on the industry’s evolving AI landscape and the skills maritime professionals will need in the years ahead:

MT: AI has become an increasingly common topic across the maritime industry. Based on your interactions with maritime organizations, what are some of the key challenges they face when exploring or applying AI?

From my experience, the challenge when maritime organizations look to implement AI tools is building the foundation for it to produce useful results, rather than the implementation or use of the technology itself. Many organizations have large amounts of data, but struggle with data quality and standardization. On top of that, there are governance, cyber security, and control and assurance issues, both of the data and of the tools and systems themselves. Even when we have something that looks promising, there can be scaling challenges. Moving beyond a proof-of-concept or pilot project to a broader operational or fleet level requires a whole new approach in terms of organizational buy in, process integration, and trust within and beyond the organization itself.

This is because maritime is a safety critical industry and safety is the backbone of how shipping has created the modern global economy. If we lose confidence in the safety of our industry, we’ve lost everything. So, we need to be sure that as AI adoption increases, we have a firm basis for demonstrating that these systems are just as reliable, secure, transparent, and aligned with regulatory expectations as the systems we have today. Equivalent safety levels are a very familiar concept to us in the maritime industry – we have technologies that have been rolled out on that basis and enjoy great trust today. But building that trust is just as important as developing the technology itself.

MT: Singapore has established itself as a hub for maritime innovation and digitalization. How are these developments shaping the skills and capabilities maritime professionals need today?

Singapore has built a reputation for leadership in maritime innovation, especially as relates to digitalization, largely due to the efforts of the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) and cooperation with both industry and academia. At DNV for example, Singapore is home to our Maritime Decarbonization and Smart Shipping Centre of Excellence where we focus on working with partners to build in these areas, alongside enhancing sustainability and talent development. All these combined have resulted in a lot of expertise developing, as well as the associated rollout and adoption of technologies like predictive maintenance, vessel performance monitoring, decision support systems, smart port operations, the wider use of digital twins, and data-driven optimization, throughout the maritime value chain.

One thing these technologies tend to have in common is that they are data driven, and this has increased expectations that maritime professionals and crew in Singapore should be able to work with data-driven tools as part of their day-to-day responsibilities. Today, the rise of AI adds a new level of expectation, that professionals will need an understanding of AI, process and system automation, and the cybersecurity implications of these tools, and on top of that the ability to critically evaluate digital outputs, so that they can be applied in operational decision-making.

As a result, there is growing interest in training programmes that help maritime professionals build up these skills, and especially their understanding of AI and its practical applications.

MT: What can maritime professionals expect to gain from DNV Maritime Academy’s AI courses?

Our AI courses are designed to help maritime professionals understand where AI can deliver real value in maritime operations today, and where the potential is over the long term. Developed specifically for the industry, the trainings combine AI fundamentals with practical, maritime-specific, use cases that cover everything from operations, maintenance, safety, through to fleet management and decision support.

Beyond the technology itself, participants will gain insights into regulations and governance, cybersecurity, assurance and human factors – all of which are critical considerations in a safety-critical industry like shipping. We also like to think that a key differentiator of our courses is our focus on responsible AI adoption, and this is an area where we as DNV have a particular emphasis on developing recommended practices and guidance on AI-enabled systems and AI assurance.

Most importantly, we hope participants will leave with a practical framework to evaluate AI opportunities, identify high-value use cases, avoid common pitfalls, and be able to make more informed decisions about AI adoption and the ongoing digital transformation of shipping.

Note: Maritime Cluster Fund (MCF) Training Grant is available for eligible participants. Please refer to https://www.mpa.gov.sg/maritime-singapore/what-maritime-singapore-offers/developing-manpower/training@maritimesingapore for information on the MCF Training Grant.

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 1 August, 2026