Classification society DNV on recently published a Maritime Impact article on Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, DNV Maritime’s CEO, sharing his reflections on the latest findings of the new Maritime Forecast to 2050 report and how maritime can get closer to achieving upcoming decarbonization goals:
Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO, DNV Maritime, says shipping must invest in the exploration and development of technological solutions that improve energy efficiency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions until carbon-neutral fuels become available.
Decarbonization is one of the greatest challenges facing shipping. Following a slow start, decarbonization aspirations have been embraced by the maritime industry. IMO goals have been set, notably full-scale decarbonization by or around 2050, a 20% emissions reduction by 2030, and a 70% reduction by 2040.
While these moves have been widely welcomed, it’s time to get real. Setting goals is the easy part. Achieving them is extremely difficult, bordering on the impossible. Indeed, a pragmatic assessment of the shipping industry today indicates that decarbonization is slowing down, not accelerating.
Let’s look at the facts.
The costly transition to carbon-neutral fuels
Full decarbonization will require a large-scale transition to carbon-neutral fuels. This is a huge challenge requiring the construction of new vessels and the retrofitting of existing vessels to enable them to operate on, likely very expensive, green versions of fuels. In a global economy already heavily burdened by inflation and high interest rates, the extra costs associated with this transformation are about as appealing to shipowners as a leaky hull.
Indeed, in an era of higher freight rates, shipowners are understandably seeking to harvest profits and have little incentive to join the queue for limited yard space. While around 50% of new orders today are for ships with dual-fuel capability, constructing them comes at a premium which is difficult to pass along the supply chain. The happy hour for methanol appears to be over already, and the reality is that 93% of the global fleet is still running on conventional fuels.
Even if this technological shift on board the vessels is eventually successful, global supplies of carbon-neutral fuels remain miniscule and shipping needs to compete with other industries for its share. Fuel suppliers are reluctant to invest billions of dollars in projects for which demand is uncertain and, so far, the exponential growth in supply that we need is nowhere to be seen.
But all is not lost yet.
Harnessing technology and cultural changes to drive energy efficiency
Using simulations, this year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report by DNV estimates that fuel consumption can be reduced by between 4% and 16% by 2030 using energy efficiency measures.
The first few percentage points can be achieved quite easily. Many maritime companies have already shown that by instilling cultural changes throughout an organization, and by encouraging crew members to seek efficiencies through their day-to-day operations, fuel consumption can be reduced, and emissions reductions of around 5% can be achieved.
However, going to the next level and reaching double-digit energy efficiency requires technological solutions. Technologies like wind-assisted propulsion and waste-heat recovery systems, to name just a few, have already been proven to deliver tangible emissions reductions.
But technology can do even more.
Note: DNV’s full article titled ‘Decarbonizing maritime: Overcoming challenges with innovation and ingenuity’ can be read here.
Related: DNV report: Technological developments key to reducing maritime sector emissions
Photo credit: DNV
Published: 16 September, 2024