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Bunker Fuel

Integr8: Oil-dominated bunker market for at least another 10 years but industry cannot stand still

Research Contributor Steve Christy takes a look at bp’s latest ‘Energy Outlook’, highlighting that it sees alternative fuels accounting for around 15% of the bunker market in 2035, but reaching close to 40% of the market by 2050.

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Integr8: Oil-dominated bunker market for at least another 10 years but industry cannot stand still

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]    

24 July 2024 

BP’s latest analysis looking at the energy sector to 2050

BP has just published its annual ‘Energy Outlook’ looking at two scenarios going through to 2050. These are not forecasts, but illustrate two cases, the first reflecting what it would take to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050, and the second showing a scenario if the world continues on its ‘current trajectory’ of policies and timings towards environmental measures.

A picture paints a thousand words!

Historically, the graph below shows how CO2 emissions have risen since 2000 and that the environmental measures taken so far have not been enough to stop increases in global CO2.

graph1 1024x605

Source: BP

Looking to the future, the net zero case highlights the extreme challenges the world faces to achieve this target by 2050.  It is literally the ‘bottom line’ for any scenario looking at the future for energy, and a 95% decline in CO2 emissions would clearly have an inconceivable impact on almost all industries, including our own.

Even BP’s ‘current trajectory’ case indicates a turning point and a 25% decline in CO2 emissions by 2050.  This is still a major shift from where we are today and would require significant changes in bunker fuels to take place (as is shown later in this report).

A focus on BP’s oil and shipping analysis

In their outlook BP cover oil, gas, coal, power, and low carbon hydrogen.  However, in this report we focus on BP’s scenarios for the oil sector and their cases for marine fuels.

The first main point is that in both scenarios there is a forecast major increase in seaborne trade; a 70% gain in the current trajectory and a 30% gain in the net zero case by 2050.  Despite this, with greater efficiencies and shifts they see no net gain in energy demand for shipping under the current trajectory case, and a 20% decline in net zero.

The common theme in both cases is that BP see a move away from oil as a bunker fuel and a shift to what are currently viewed as ‘alternative fuels’.  This is through the delivery of new ships capable of running on alternative fuels and the retro-fitting of older ships to use these alternative fuels.  In this way, biofuels and low carbon hydrogen are potentially the biggest elements of the bunker market going forward, especially moving towards a ‘net zero’ world.

What is the outlook for oil demand in the two BP scenarios?

Electrification is going to be the major shift in the energy balance.  The ever-falling cost structure of wind and solar power is accelerating this transition.   For oil markets, there is already a seismic shift underway in the electrification of road transport markets, away from gasoline and diesel towards EVs (and electric trucks sometime in the future).

Although shipping is generally a ‘hard to electrify’ industry, we are not immune to what is happening elsewhere in the oil sector.  The loss in gasoline and diesel demand could have a major knock-on effect on refining.

It is not surprising that the future profile for oil demand is very much aligned to the success, or not of reducing global CO2 emissions.  Hitting the net zero target by 2050 (or whenever this may be) would mean a near non-existent oil industry.

graph2 1024x605

Source: BP

In contrast, BP’s ‘current trajectory’ case would mean the size of the oil industry stays more-or-less the same as it is today through the next 10 years.  It is only in the 2035-50 period that oil demand declines, and then only taking it back to the same size of the market we saw in 2000.

The make up of the oil industry is going to change, whatever happens

Even with very little change in the overall size of the oil market through to 2035 under the ‘current trajectory’ case, the refining industry must still adapt.  The graph below highlights the shifts in demand for different sectors:

  • moving away from gasoline, diesel, and gasoil; the products in decline because of electrification in road transport, buildings and industry;
  • and towards the growth markets, including bunkers and aviation, but especially into lighter end products as feedstocks into the petchem industries.
graph3 1024x680

Source: BP

What about in the much longer term?

In this same BP case, the significant changes in the size of the oil industry and the balance in products takes place after 2035.  The more rapid moves away from gasoline, diesel, and gasoil indicate a 20% decline in the size of the oil industry in this 2035-50 period (as opposed to the 1% gain over 2022-35).

graph4 1024x679

Source: BP

Although the scenario shows only a small decline in oil use in bunkers and aviation, this is against significant increases in seaborne and air travel.  The pointers are we are moving more towards alternative fuels.

The drive to alternative bunker fuels must continue

The current discussions, investments, and technologies in alternative fuels for shipping are testament to the future needs for our industry.

BP comment on this and in the next 10 years highlight LNG, biofuels (bio-methanol and biodiesel) and hydrogen derived fuels (ammonia and methanol).  In their current trajectory case, they see these alternative fuels accounting for around 15% of the bunker market in 2035, BUT reaching close to 40% of the market by 2050.

graph5 1024x628

Source: BP

For a 40% share of the bunker market by 2050 an enormous amount of work has to be done in low carbon shipping, especially considering the lead times in the industry.

What about the net zero case, whenever it may happen?

An even more radical approach must be adopted if ‘net zero’ is to be met, even if the target or achievement is after 2050.  In their net zero case, BP put oil products at only 10% of the bunker market. The growth in LNG is also constrained in this case, again as it is a fossil fuel.

In a decarbonised world there would have to be a strong drive into biofuels and hydrogen derived fuels to achieve the ‘net zero’ balance.

graph6 1024x628

Source: BP

As we are currently seeing in the wind and solar power sectors, we need high volumes and lower costs in hydrogen derived fuels to make low carbon shipping possible.

No big changes in the bunker market in the next 10 years, but that doesn’t mean we can do nothing!

In general terms, a number of analysts are still indicating oil demand rising through the next 10 years or so, and pushing the point of peak oil demand to around the mid-2030s.  In fact, Goldman Sachs Research has just put out an article along these lines, with peak demand another decade away and then plateauing around this level for another few years (i.e. not falling until the late 2030s).

So, it seems oil is going to be the key supplier to the bunker market for at least the next 10 years or so.  This could instil a degree of complacency, but given political direction, public sentiment and impacts on the oil industry outside the bunker sector, it is only a question of time when ‘alternative fuels’ dominate our business, even if it is post 2050.

Given the lead times and the technological advances needed, it is clear we have to continue to drive our industry forward along a low carbon path.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 8 August 2024

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Methanol

World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to “Arctic Tern” via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel “M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan”.

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World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Marine fuel provider World Fuel on Tuesday (21 July) said it successfully completed the first green methanol bunkering of M/V Arctic Tern, with EUKOR Car Carriers and SIPG Energy at the Port of Shanghai. 

Arctic Tern is the first vessel in the new Shaper Class series of car carriers. 

The operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to Arctic Tern via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan, the largest vessel of its kind in operation. 

The bunkering operation was carried out at Haitong Terminal, Waigaoqiao Port Area, Shanghai Port, with cargo handling operations conducted simultaneously during bunkering.

This marks EUKOR Car Carriers’ first green methanol operation and the first time Arctic Tern has bunkered methanol since its delivery on 9 July. The operation marked the first bunkering at Shanghai Port of green methanol produced locally in Shanghai for an international PCTC operator. 

It also demonstrated the city’s integrated green methanol value chain, spanning local production, storage and bunkering, and established a replicable “Shanghai Model” for green methanol supply.

World Fuel arranged the supply and delivery of the fuel on behalf of EUKOR Car Carriers, working with SIPG Energy as the physical supplier at the Port of Shanghai.

The green methanol supplied was produced from municipal solid waste, ISCC-EU certified, and had a carbon intensity value below 25 gCO₂e/MJ.

Arctic Tern is the first of fourteen Shaper Class vessels ordered by Wallenius Wilhelmsen. With a capacity of 9,300 car equivalent units and methanol dual-fuel capability, the vessel will be operated by EUKOR Car Carriers, jointly owned by Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Hyundai Motor Group. Following her first green methanol bunkering, Arctic Tern will continue her maiden voyage from Asia to Europe.

Xavier Leroi, COO Shipping Services at Wallenius Wilhelmsen and CEO of EUKOR Car Carriers, said: “Completing Arctic Tern’s first green methanol bunkering shortly after delivery is a significant milestone towards our decarbonisation ambition for both EUKOR Car Carriers and Wallenius Wilhelmsen. It demonstrates how investments in next-generation vessel technology and fuel flexibility are being translated into real-world operations. 

“This achievement reflects the strong collaboration between all parties involved. Together, we have shown how partnerships across the maritime value chain can help make lower-emission fuels available and operationally viable at scale.”

Mark Tamsitt, SVP Global Marine Sales at World Fuel, said, “The first bunkering event with a new fuel is a significant moment for any shipowner, and our role is to make it as seamless as possible. By connecting EUKOR Car Carriers with SIPG Energy’s proven green methanol capability at the Port of Shanghai, we were able to deliver on reliable supply, fuel quality, and safe processes. As more of our customers bring methanol dual-fuel tonnage into service, we are committed to being the partner that makes these kinds of operations routine.”

Mr. Zhang Da, General Manager of SIPG Energy, said, “Welcoming Arctic Tern to the Port of Shanghai for her first green methanol bunkering demonstrates the strength and maturity of our supply capability. Building on our well-established methanol ship-to-ship bunkering services for container vessels, we have already extended such services to pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). This bunkering sets a new record for the largest single SIMOPs green methanol bunkering for PCTCs in China, marking another step in building Shanghai’s position as a global green energy hub for international shipping.”

This operation follows Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s announcement on 9 July that Arctic Tern would complete her first methanol bunkering shortly after delivery. The vessel entered service on routes between Asia and Europe immediately following handover from China Merchants Jinling Shipyard in Nanjing.

 

Photo credit: World Fuel
Published: 22 July, 2026

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Ammonia

HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

HPA says the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

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HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

The Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) and integrated energy company MB Energy on Tuesday (21 July) said they have completed a comprehensive risk analysis and developed a dedicated safety concept for ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering.

MB Energy said the analysis lays the groundwork for the safe introduction of ammonia as a future marine fuel.

“With our planned ammonia import terminal in Hamburg-Blumensand, MB Energy intends to provide the reliable land side supply infrastructure needed to support this transition across northern German ports,” it said in a social media post. 

Mabanaft Group was renamed to MB Energy last year and merged over 50 existing brands under one identity. 

Separately, HPA said the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

“The focus is in particular on container ships, cruise ships as well as RoRo and ConRo (Container/RoRo) ships,” it said. 

“We expect ammonia to establish itself as an alternative marine marine fuel in the coming years. With our preparatory work, we are already creating the conditions to welcome the first ammonia-powered ships in Hamburg and to bunker them safely.:

HPA added that the import terminal for ammonia planned by MB Energy from 2029 will make a decisive contribution to ensuring the reliable availability of ammonia as a bunker fuel in northern German ports in the long term. 

“The use of an ammonia bunker barge is considered a possible addition to the landside infrastructure to enable ship bunkering in the port and beyond in the future,” it said.

Related: Mabanaft Group renames as MB Energy, merging over 50 brands under one identity

 

Photo credit: Hamburg Port Authority
Published: 22 July, 2026

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Bunker Fuel

Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

Darren Lee Axisa discusses the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub.

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Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

In an article published on Alkagesta Market Insights, Darren Lee Axisa, Malta Country Manager of Alkagesta, on Monday (20 July) discussed the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub: 

Malta’s bunkering and energy market is moving through a period of structural adjustment. The disruptions that defined the first half of 2026 have accelerated shifts in product demand, terminal strategy, and the competitive dynamics of one of the Mediterranean’s most strategically positioned bunkering hubs. For Alkagesta, whose storage footprint on the island approaches 300,000 cubic metres, the period has tested operational flexibility while reinforcing the value of diversified infrastructure access.

A Market Shifting in Two Directions

Malta’s broader economy has remained resilient — GDP growth reached 3.9% in Q1 2026 — but the bunkering market has undergone a significant product mix shift, the roots of which predate the current geopolitical disruption.

The Mediterranean Emission Control Area, which came into force on 1 May 2025, triggered an immediate and measurable realignment in fuel demand across the region. VPS data covering the first six months post-ECA implementation shows that across the top ten Mediterranean bunkering ports, VLSFO volumes fell 23%, MGO more than doubled, ULSFO quadrupled, and biofuels increased fivefold. In Valletta specifically, the shift was even more pronounced: VLSFO dropped 57% from 111,641 mt to 47,732 mt, while MGO volumes more than tripled from 33,299 mt to 103,445 mt, and ULSFO rose from 2,821 mt to 34,535 mt over the same period.

This structural rotation has been further accelerated by the broader regulatory environment. FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS requirements are pushing shipowners toward cleaner, verifiable fuel options at every port call — a direction Alkagesta had already positioned itself ahead of, having been among the first movers in the Mediterranean to support the transition to 0.1% sulphur fuel oil following the ECA’s introduction.

Layered on top of this regulatory shift has been a period of reduced terminal capacity affecting bunkering market availability across the island. Fuel oil volumes dropped roughly 35% year-on-year between January and May 2026, falling from approximately 382,000 mt in 2025 to 247,000 mt. DMA demand moved sharply in the opposite direction, rising from around 150,000 mt in January to April 2025 to 247,000 mt over the same period in 2026 — a trend consistent with both the ECA-driven product mix shift and the disruption to heavier fuel availability during the constrained period.

Note: The full article can be read here

 

Photo credit: Alkagesta
Published: 22 July, 2026

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