By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]       

28 September 2023

VLSFO prices have been on another rise

A month ago, we wrote about high bunker prices which were based on two key factors: Tightness in most product markets; And additional oil production cutbacks by Saudi Arabia. Now, bunker prices are even higher.

Brent has moved above $90/bbl, with Singapore VLSFO above $660/mt and close to peak levels seen at the start of this year. Rotterdam VLSFO has been trading at around $615-635/mt, its highest so far this year. More recently Rotterdam prices have eased slightly but they are still above this year’s previous peaks, and Singapore prices remain at high levels.

Much tighter fundamentals are behind the price hike

On a very short-term basis, the market can see dramatic price shifts, but it is normally the fundamentals that drive price direction over a period of weeks and months. We are now in a strong fundamental period, with year-on-year growth in global oil demand at 3 million b/d in Q2 this year and projected at 2 million b/d in Q3 and Q4. The key factor here is growth is almost entirely centred on China.

At the same time there are huge constraints in oil supply, with the additional 1 million b/d voluntary cut made by Saudi Arabia, starting in July. In fact, part of the recent price hike is that Saudi Arabia has recently committed to extending these additional cuts through to the end of this year.

Additionally, the September 21st announcement by Russia which banned all diesel and gasoline exports to support their own domestic market and, we can see clear reasons why oil prices have taken another leap higher over the past month.

On the supply side, it is what’s happening to Saudi oil production

Saudi Arabia’s stated policy is aimed at supporting a market with less volatility, and more sustainable and predictable outcomes. As part of this strategy, the country had reduced crude output by 0.5 million b/d in line with the overall OPEC+ agreement, and then made a further 1 million b/d cut over the second half of this year. The net result is that Saudi crude production has fallen sharply over the past few months and is currently some 1.5 million b/d lower than average 2022 levels (8.9 million b/d in August vs an average of 10.4 million b/d last year). This lower level of output is expected to be maintained through to the end of the year.

Looking at alternative crude supplies, US production crude production is near record highs and higher oil prices has incentivised even greater investment in US shale oil. However, the problem here is Saudi cuts are instantaneous and any rise in US shale production from new investment takes months. Hence, current signals are for a potential tightness in supply over the rest of this year, before an expected 1 million b/d hike in January as Saudi crude output climbs back towards 10 million b/d.

On the demand side it is all about China, China, China

Fundamentals on the demand side also point to higher oil prices. As mentioned, increases in global oil demand are running at 2-3 million b/d (year-on-year), and these are big numbers. However, they are almost entirely based on what is happening in China; product demand developments elsewhere are minimal, and even falling in Europe and projected to start falling in the US next year.

The reason for current very high year-on-year growth rates in China is that the country was still largely in lockdown through 2022, and the easing has only taken place this year. This is much later than almost all other countries worldwide, where the post-pandemic ‘boom’ took place in 2022, not 2023. Therefore, it is more-or-less China alone that is driving up oil demand this year.

Clearly there is a risk of weaker demand than forecast in many countries but if we are looking for a big price impact from the demand side, then it is more likely to be stories about China that are going to drive prices up or down.

Market tightness in Q3 & Q4, but potentially changing going into 2024

Bringing together these more extreme developments in supply and demand, the graph below illustrates global fundamentals on a quarterly basis. The key for us is that global oil supply exceeded demand through most of 2022 and in the first quarter of this year, resulting in an ongoing global stock build. However, we have just been through a turning point, where demand is exceeding supply in Q3 this year and this is expected to be repeated in Q4, leading to stock draws.

It is not until the start of next year that we see a reversal and another turning point is envisaged. It is at this stage; Saudi Arabia says it will lift its voluntary 1 million b/d cutbacks. At the same time year-on-year growth in oil demand is expected to ease back to around 1 million b/d. So, at the start of next year oil supply is projected to exceed demand once again, reverting us back to a world of stock builds.

Summarising by looking at the global stock build/stock draw positions, we can see the exceptional times we are currently in; Having moved to a position of stock draws in Q3 and projected for Q4 this year. In addition, the tightness in global stocks lies with oil products, and not crude oil. This has been driven by high product demand and exacerbated by several unplanned refinery outages this year.

Going into next year the position looks like reversing again, going back to a fundamental global stock build.

What’s next?

Given the fundamentals, these developments explain the wave of price rises we have seen in September.

Looking ahead over the rest of this year and into 2024, on the demand side China is the main story. Of course, Chinese demand could be higher than currently projected, in which case Brent crude could easily pass the $100/bbl ‘barrier’, along with Singapore VLSFO going above $700/mt.

However, the chatter at the moment is about weakness in the Chinese economy. If this translates to lower oil demand, then it will be a sign ‘to sell’, and prices for us all would come down. This is clearly the story to watch on the demand side.

The supply side seems more predictable - When Saudi Arabia announces the additional cutbacks will be eased (or there are strong indications of this), then oil prices are likely to fall. A reversal of the Russian ban on diesel and gasoline exports could also have a bearish impact.

Timing is everything in all these developments, and the extent of any fall in prices may still be dependent on how tight oil product stocks are at the time and what stocks look like doing in the near term.

Being precise on price movements is difficult, but we know prices never wait for the fundamentals to be borne out; Markets react on news, changes, and psychology. If the fundamentals do play out as shown in this report, then prices are more likely to fall before the end of the year, in anticipation of weaker fundamentals going into 2024. Let’s see what happens…..

Photo credit and source: Integr8
Published: 4 October, 2023

The following article regarding Europe and Africa bunker fuel availability has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

• HSFO availability “super tight” in Gibraltar
• South African authorities impound barges for tax violations
• VLSFO and LSMGO supply normal in most Mediterranean ports

Northwest Europe

HSFO availability has improved a bit in Rotterdam and in the wider ARA hub. Some suppliers can offer the grade for prompt delivery dates, unlike last month when supply was limited, a source says. Lead times of 5-7 days are still recommended for the grade to ensure full coverage from suppliers there, a source says.

Rotterdam’s HSFO price was trading around $595/mt on Wednesday, slightly down from levels of $620/mt seen last week. VLSFO and LSMGO availability remains normal in the ARA hub. Lead times of 4-6 days are recommended for VLSFO, and 1-3 days for LSMGO.

VLSFO and LSMGO availability remains normal for delivery off Skaw. Recommended lead times for both grades are around 7-10 days.

Mediterranean

HSFO availability is “super tight” in Gibraltar. Two bunker suppliers have almost run out of HSFO stock, while only one supplier has a decent amount of supply available. However, the supplier is taking advantage of the tight market by quoting prices unusually high for prompt supply, a source says. Tight supply of HSFO coupled with upward price pressure on VLSFO narrowed the port’s Hi5 spread to just $20/mt on Wednesday.

Gibraltar’s HSFO was indicated in a wide range of $35/mt on Wednesday, with indications for prompt dates often featuring towards the top of that price range. One supplier can supply the grade for delivery dates at the end of September, a source says. VLSFO and LSMGO availability is relatively better in Gibraltar. Lead times of 3-5 days are recommended for both grades.  

Gibraltar, one of the biggest bunkering ports in the Mediterranean region, has experienced a lack of competition for HSFO sales. One bunker supplier in Portugal stopped offering HSFO after IMO’s 0.50% sulphur mandate came into force in 2020. Product availability has also been patchy in other bunker locations around the Mediterranean, such as Las Palmas, off Malta and Italian ports, partly because fewer suppliers offer the grade.

However, the narrowing of Gibraltar's Hi5 spread has diminished fuel cost savings against VLSFO for scrubber-fitted vessels. A Hi5 spread above $100/mt is typically considered lucrative for scrubber-fitted vessels burning HSFO.

HSFO is also almost out of stock in Livorno and Venice in Italy, a source says.

Other bunker delivery locations in the Mediterranean such as off Malta, Lisbon, Sines, Piraeus and Istanbul have normal availability of VLSFO and LSMGO, sources say.

Africa

Bunker operations have been restricted in Algoa Bay after the South African Revenue Service (SARS) recently detained five bunker barges over import duties disputes. SARS has demanded offshore bunkering companies pay excise duties for marine fuels imported into South Africa, sources say.

The bunker suppliers operating offshore have resisted SARS' demand by arguing that no import duties should be levied as the fuel is transferred via ship-to-ship (STS) operations without onshore involvement.

The disagreement between SARS and bunker suppliers has triggered concerns about a potential shutdown of offshore bunkering in Algoa Bay. One major bunker supplier in the bay has had its barges detained, while another company's barges are still operating but with limited product capacity, a source claims.

One vessel was receiving bunkers at anchorage, while two were held up waiting on Wednesday, according to Rennies Ships Agency. A total of 12 vessels are scheduled to arrive for bunkers in Port Elizabeth and Algoa Bay over the remaining days of the week.

Some ships seeking bunkers in the region have been diverted to other nearby ports, such as Durban, where the average waiting time for bunker-only calls is about 5-6 days, a source says. LSMGO availability is said to be tight in Durban and Richards Bay, with VLSFO supply also tightening in both ports.

VLSFO and LSMGO availability is good in Mozambique’s Nacala and Maputo ports, a source says. HSFO is almost out of stock in Nacala, where a replenishment cargo is only expected to arrive after 28 September.

By Nithin Chandran

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 21 September, 2023

Beijing-based commodity market information provider JLC Network Technology Co. recently shared its JLC China Bunker monthly report for August 2023 with Manifold Times through an exclusive arrangement:

Bunker Fuel Demand

China’s bonded bunker fuel sales rally in August

China’s bonded bunker fuel sales rallied in August, because of multiple factors.

The country sold roughly 1.80 million mt of bonded bunker fuel in the month, with the daily sales rebounding by 11.80% from the previous month to about 58,065 mt, JLC’s data indicates.

The sales by Chimbusco, Sinopec Zhoushan, SinoBunker and China ChangJiang Bunker (Sinopec) were 580,000 mt, 650,000 mt, 80,000 mt and 40,000 mt, respectively. Meanwhile, suppliers with regional bunkering licenses tallied about 450,000 mt of bonded bunker fuel sales.

Though the negative impact of bad weather lingered in Zhoushan and Ningbo, more shipowners came to refuel as bonded bunker fuel prices in the two regions were more competitive than those in Singapore. Meanwhile, the barging capacity at Shandong ports recovered to some degree, which also drove up the sales. On the other hand, however, the barging capacity at southern ports was insufficient amid tighter customs inspections, leading to a dip in the sales in South China.

China’s bonded bunker fuel exports drop in July

China’s bonded bunker fuel exports dropped in July, because of inclement weather and some other factors, despite a modest increase in domestic low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) production.

The country exported about 1.62 million mt of bonded bunker fuel in the month, down by 20.82% month on month and 4.63% year on year, JLC estimated, with reference to data from the General Administration of Customs of PRC (GACC).

Specifically, heavy bunker fuel exports amounted to about 1.53 million mt, accounting for 94.70% of the total, while light bunker fuel exports settled at 85,700 mt, making up 5.30%.

Regarding the exports by supplier, enterprises with national bunkering licenses exported roughly 1.30 million mt, accounting for 80.73% of the country’s total, with Sinopec Fuel Oil and Chimbusco taking 71.68%. Meanwhile, enterprises with regional licenses exported 311,500 mt, accounting for 19.27%, with PetroChina Fuel Oil (Zhoushan, Shanghai and Guangzhou) taking 194,800 mt which occupied 12.07% of China’s exports and 62.54% of regional suppliers’ total.

Bunkering business at some Chinese ports was disturbed by rains and typhoons, dragging down China’s bonded bunker fuel exports. Meanwhile, some shipowners’ refueling demand was also depressed by bad weather, which added to the downward pressure on the exports.

On the other hand, domestic bunker fuel supply increased moderately amid larger LSFO production, putting a cap on the decline in the exports. China produced about 1.35 million mt of LSFO in July, up by 61,000 mt or 4.73% month on month, with the daily output up by 1.35% to 43,548 mt, JLC’s data shows.

In the first seven months, China’s bonded bunker fuel exports totaled about 12.03 million mt, growing by 6.38% from the same months in 2022, slowing down from a boost of 8.32% in the first six months.

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand climbs further in Aug

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand climbed further in August, as most shipowners resumed voyages after typhoons and bullish sentiment popped up in the shipping market. Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand increased to 330,000 mt in the month, up by 20,000 mt or 6.45% from the previous month, JLC’s data shows.

On the contrary, domestic-trade light bunker fuel demand shrank as continuously rising prices somewhat deterred buyers. Domestic-trade light bunker fuel demand settled at 130,000 mt in August, descending by 10,000 mt or 7.14% month on month.

Bunker Fuel Supply

China boosts bonded bunker fuel imports from Russia in July

China sharply boosted its bonded bunker fuel imports from Russia in July, because of large discounts on Russian cargoes.

Russia became the biggest bonded bunker fuel supplier to China in the month, supplying 275,000 mt to the latter, surging by 253.02% year on year and accounting for 82.34% of China’s total imports, JLC estimated, with reference to data from the General Administration of Customs of PRC (GACC). Chinese importers placed more orders for cargoes from Russia, because of significant price advantages for Russian cargoes.

Japan replaced Singapore as the second largest supplier by shipping 46,300 mt of bonded bunker fuel to China, rising by 18.72% month on month and accounting for 13.86% of China’s total.

South Korea remained in the third place with 10,700 mt, accounting for 3.20%, despite a plunge from 70,900 mt in June 2023. Meanwhile, inflows from Singapore tumbled to 2,000 mt, rapidly down from 140,100 mt in the previous month, sending the country to the fourth place. The imports accounted for 0.60% of the total.

Despite an upsurge in imports from Russia and Singapore, China’s total bonded bunker fuel imports dropped to 334,000 mt in July, a cut of 26.33% month on month and 5.28% year on year. Underlying the decline was an increase in domestic low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) output and relatively high freight rates for imported cargoes.

Domestic LSFO supply increased as Chinese refiners ramped up their production to quicken the utilization of export quotas, and production basically met demand for low-sulfur bunker fuel. China’s LSFO output settled at 1.35 million mt in the month, gaining 61,000 mt or 4.73% month on month, with the daily output up by 1.35% to 43,548 mt, JLC’s data shows.

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel supply increases in Aug

Chinese blenders supplied about 370,000 mt of domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel in August, an increase of 10,000 mt or 2.78% from a month earlier, JLC’s data shows. Blenders bought more low-sulfur residual oil as blendstock amid lower prices, and they continued to raise their bunker fuel output when downstream buyers increased purchases with a bullish attitude.

At the same time, domestic-trade marine gas oil (MGO) supply stabilized at 170,000 mt. Light bunker fuel supply was still relatively abundant amid good coking margins.

Bunker Prices, Profits

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JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report is published by JLC Network Technology Co., Ltd every month on China bunker market, demand, supply, margin, freight index, forecast and so on. The report provides full-scale & concise insight into China bunker oil market.

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Note: China-based commodity market information provider JLC Technology has been providing Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times China bunker volume data since 2020. Data from that period is available here.

Photo credit: JLC Network Technology
Published: 13 September, 2023