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IMO 2020

Don’t Listen To The Alarmists – HFSO Will Be In The Mix For Years

Pacific Green Technologies explains why plenty of HSFO will be available for consumption post IMO 2020.

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Scrubber technology firm Pacific Green Technologies (PGT) on Wednesday (7 August) published an article ‘Don’t Listen To The Alarmists – HFSO Will Be In The Mix For Years’ to assure the shipping industry HSFO will be available for consumption post IMO 2020:

Imminent major changes are often met with panic and scaremongering.

Think back to the panic surrounding the millennium “bug” in late 1999. Not only did people refuse to book flights on December 31, because they feared a computer meltdown that would see aircraft dropping from the skies, many people panic-bought huge stocks of canned goods and bottled water to see out the apocalypse.

Of course, nothing happened. Computers’ clocks ticked over to a new millennium and everything was just dandy (there were a lot of Primus stoves suddenly on sale on eBay in January 2000, though).

IMO 2020 comes into force on January 1, 2020. This new regulations states that ocean-going vessels must reduce their sulphur emissions to 0.5%.

Unlike the millennium bug, there will definitely be some changes. There have to be.

At the very least, according to a recent report by AlixPartners, the container-shipping industry alone could be looking at a US$10 billion increase in its annual fuel bill. This, however, is based on 2018 prices. If prices in 2020 move heavily against low sulphur fuel oils, as many expect them to, this number could be even bigger.

Some shipowners are dealing with this by switching their vessels to run on low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). But an increasing number of owners are plumping for marine exhaust gas cleaning systems (gas scrubbers) which remove sulphur from high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), allowing owners to still benefit from the lower price of HSFO.

In Rotterdam, the price spread between 0.5%-sulphur fuel oil and HSFO is forecast to widen to ­between $200 and $250 per tonne in the fourth quarter, from about $150 per tonne in the second ­quarter, according to Matt Wright, a consulting mana­ger at Argus Media, which analyses energy and other commodity markets.

The spread is expected to increase to between $300 and $350 per tonne in the first quarter of next year.

So, with a clearer picture emerging of potentially major fuel price differentials next year, the economic appeal of scrubbers is becoming increasingly obvious.

But that hasn’t stopped the prophets of doom from casting their shadow over the debate. Recently some in the refinery industry have claimed that demand created by shipowners who fit scrubbers will not be sufficient reason for a refiner to deliver high-sulphur fuel, because refiners can now extract more profitable products from it.

They point to the refineries now being built in India, the Middle East and Asia. They are not looking to supply the marine market with a high-sulphur bunker fuel. Most, they say, are not producing any bunkers in their economic models.

This is true. Most new refineries will be super-modern and will not produce HSFO in the medium-to-short-term. But there are 700 refineries in the world. And very few are super-modern.

The vast majority of current refineries are not being upgraded to exploit the extra levels of refining. The investment required is huge – around $3bn per refinery – and many refineries simply cannot afford the investment.

Indeed, given that the uptake of scrubber-installed vessels is increasing, most refineries see no immediate need to upgrade. There will be plenty of customers for their HSFO and they can upgrade gradually.

Nobody is saying that HSFO demand will be as strong as it is now – but the more scrubbers are installed the more demand there will be post-IMO 2020. And with the current price differential, a shipowner will make back his investment on a scrubber in less than a year.

The refinery representatives say that people who make the investment in scrubbers in the belief HSFO fuel will be around for 20 years are sorely mistaken.

But HSFO doesn’t need to be around for 20 years. Even if it’s just available for the next five-to-ten years, while refineries slowly upgrade, the installation of a scrubber will pay shipowners huge dividends.

There really is no need to panic – the planes will not fall from the skies.

Source: Pacific Green Technologies
Published: 13 August, 2019

 

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Ammonia

AM Green plans to build green ammonia plant at Indian port

Initiative also includes development of green ammonia handling, storage and bunkering infrastructure, pilot bunkering operations, safety procedures and training programmes, says VOC Port Authority.

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VO Chidambaranar (VOC) Port Authority on Friday (29 May) said it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with India’s ammonia producer AM Green Ammonia to collaborate in the development of a green ammonia production plant.

The plant will have a capacity of one million tonnes per annum (MTPA) at Tuticorin.

The initiative also includes development of green ammonia handling, storage and bunkering infrastructure, pilot bunkering operations, safety procedures and training programmes. 

The project is expected to support the development of green fuel corridors connecting VOC Port with major ports in Europe and Asia, thereby strengthening India’s position in the global green fuels value chain.

VOC Port also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bureau Veritas (India) Pvt. Ltd., to collaborate on Green Port certification, emissions accounting, ESG reporting, safety validation, development of green bunkering practices, and establishment of a Centre of Excellence for green fuels and sustainability.

The port also plans for an upcoming 750 m³ green methanol bunkering facility.

 

Photo credit: Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash
Published: 3 June, 2026

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Port & Regulatory

Study: Major drop in ship sulphur emissions confirmed following IMO regulations

National Centre for Atmospheric Science study found that the average sulphur content in ship fuel dropped nearly tenfold in open ocean areas following IMO’s 2020 regulation.

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Recent global regulations have significantly reduced sulphur emissions from ships, helping to improve air quality in coastal regions – confirmed by a recent international study led by researchers at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. 

The research, published in Environmental Science: Atmospheres, used aircraft and ground-based instruments to measure sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emitted by ships in the North-East Atlantic and European coastal waters between 2019 and 2023.

The team found that the average sulphur content in ship fuel dropped nearly tenfold in open ocean areas following the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 regulation, which capped sulphur content in marine fuel at 0.5%. 

Before the change, many ships exceeded the previous 3.5% limit. After 2020, only a small number of ships were found to breach the new standard.

In European sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs), such as the English Channel and the Port of Tyne, sulphur levels were even lower – well below the stricter 0.1% limit. Interestingly, ports outside these zones, like Valencia in Spain, also showed low sulphur levels, likely due to EU rules requiring cleaner fuel when ships are docked for extended periods.

This is the first study to use aircraft-based measurements and predictions from the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM3) to assess ship emissions outside of sulphur control zones since the 2020 regulation came into effect. The findings support the widely held view that ships now emit around seven times less sulphur than before the rule change – an important step toward cleaner air and healthier coastal environments.

Note: The research, titled ‘SO2 and NOx emissions from ships in North-East Atlantic waters: in situ measurements and comparison with an emission model’ can be found here. 

 

Photo credit: shraga kopstein on Unsplash
Published: 8 December, 2025

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Interview

IBIA Annual Convention 2025: ‘Exciting times’ for post IMO 2020 bunker suppliers, states Equatorial

Choong Sheen Mao, Chief Operating Officer, Equatorial, describes to Manifold Times the pre/post IMO 2020 challenges and evolution of bunker suppliers.

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The International Bunkering Industry Association (IBIA) will be hosting its flagship Annual Convention in Hong Kong at the Hong Kong Convention Exhibition & Convention Centre between 18 to 20 November 2025, as part of Hong Kong Maritime Week.

Choong Sheen Mao, Chief Operating Officer, Equatorial Marine Fuel Management Services (Equatorial), speaks to bunkering publication Manifold Times about the challenges of a post IMO 2020 bunker supplier.

MT: How does Equatorial continue to offer customer assurance and maintenance of marine fuel quality to ISO8217 standards despite increasing complexity of bunker fuel blends?

We maintain our focus to provide compliant, quality and competitively priced products to our customers. There is no shortcut. We source our products from a wide range of cargo producers and suppliers. We continue to be strict and vigilant with our testing programme for our products before delivering them to our customers. Equatorial has deepened our engagement with the wider industry to have a better and up-to-date understanding of the existing and new marine fuels.

MT: Can you share the evolution of commercial marine fuel procurement, blending and trading strategies on the back of increasing fuel types (pre/post IMO 2020)?

Pre IMO 2020, the main types of marine fuel procured and consumed by vessels were high-sulphur fuel oil, marine diesel oil and marine gas oil. Trading strategies were therefore closely linked to that within the oil industry.

However, many of the new fuel types are from other industries. For example, biofuels, methanol and ammonia are mainly products from the chemical and agriculture industries. There are marked differences between these industries and the energy industry (in particular, the marine fuels industry). LNG is from the gas industry which is distinct from the oil industry.

Without an existing liquid paper market for many of these commodities (especially as a marine fuel), the price risk management is less straightforward. Furthermore, commodity prices are no longer the sole consideration for price itself. The price of compliance must be considered. This could range from guaranteeing the origin of the marine fuel, its sulphur properties as well as its carbon intensity. The list goes on.

MT: Operational wise, what are the changing role and responsibilities of a bunker supplier to date, compared to before IMO 2020?

The role and responsibility of a bunker supplier have evolved. Fundamentally, it has been about providing quality marine fuels at competitive prices. Quantity assurance has been a critical concern which led to the mandatory implementation of the mass flow meter system for bunkering in the Port of Singapore. Interestingly, due to the nature of credit terms in the bunker industry, bunker suppliers also performed the role of “bankers” by extending favourable credit terms to shipowners and charterers.

These days, post IMO 2020, things have become even more complicated. Today, a bunker supplier retains the abovementioned roles and responsibilities, and much more – it has to ensure compliance with a plethora of rules and regulations. Compliance not only with sulphur cap requirements, but with international and regional sanctions and restrictions unrelated to the quality of the marine fuel itself. In fact, especially with alternative low- and zero-carbon marine fuels, this means compliance with standards, rules and regulations on sustainability such as the European Renewable Energy Directive and/or International Sustainability and Carbon Certification. There is also the need to comply with increasingly stringent safety regulations on both conventional and alternative marine fuels.

In addition to the above, a post IMO 2020 bunker supplier is still expected to supply compliant and quality fuel at competitive prices.

MT: Equatorial is Singapore’s largest local-born supplier; what is the next big thing for the company?

Equatorial continues to adapt and improve with the times, while maintaining its core values – Integrity, Teamwork, Commitment, Proficiency and Quality, and Safety and Environment. The bunker industry is a highly competitive one, and it is our intention to keep our competitive edge and remain relevant. This means that we have had to step out of our comfort zone and embrace the two mega trends of our time – digitalisation and decarbonisation.

We have been early adopters and developers of the electronic bunkering note as part of our own digital bunkering efforts. We have diversified our product offering to include low carbon marine fuels and are proud to be one of the pioneers for bunkering B100 biofuels earlier this year. This was made possible by the arrival of our IMO Type II chemical and oil bunker tankers. These same bunker tankers are also capable for carrying and delivering methanol. Equatorial has invested in an LNG bunkering vessel (LBV) newbuilding that is set to be delivered in Q3 2027. We are also involved in a study to develop low- or zero-carbon ammonia bunkering in Singapore.

These are exciting times.

Note: Choong Sheen Mao is amongst panellists featured in ‘Session Three: Bunker Sellers Panel’ at the IBIA Annual Convention 2025.

Join the Conversation

With over 300 delegates expected, the IBIA Annual Convention 2025 is set to be a defining moment for the marine fuels industry. Registration is now open via the IBIA Annual Convention website.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 October 2025

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