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DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition

Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia are key to decarbonizing heavy transport including shipping; however, these fuels would not scale until the 2030s, according to a DNV forecast.
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Hydrogen has a crucial role in decarbonizing the world’s energy system, but uptake will be too slow. Governments need to make urgent, significant policy interventions, according to a new report by DNV published on Tuesday (14 June). 

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century. 

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.” 

According to Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolysers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyser capacity of 3,100 gigawatts. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today. 

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop. 

Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be USD 6.8tn, with an additional USD 180bn spent on hydrogen pipelines and USD 530bn on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs. Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but not between continents. Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship transport and the low energy density of hydrogen. The hydrogen derivative ammonia, which is more stable and can be more readily transported by ship, will be traded globally. 

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Hydrogen will not see uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating of buildings will not scale globally, but will see early uptake in some regions that already have extensive gas infrastructure.

“Scaling hydrogen value chains will require managing safety risk and public acceptance, as well as employing policies to make hydrogen projects competitive and bankable. We need to plan at the level of energy systems, enabling societies to embrace the urgent decarbonization opportunities presented by hydrogen,” added Eriksen. 

The uptake of hydrogen will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy. Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050, as enabling policies both kickstart the scaling of hydrogen production and stimulate end-use. 

OECD Pacific (hydrogen 8% of energy mix in 2050) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon-prices and less concrete targets and policies. Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme. These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.

Note: The full report ‘Hydrogen Forecast to 2050’ can be downloaded here. 

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 15 June, 2022

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Biofuel

Chimbusco and SPG complete first biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China

Chimbusco’s “DA YUAN YOU 8” tanker refuelled the “HMM VANCOUVER” with 1,300 metric tonnes of B24 biofuel at Qingdao Port.
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Chimbusco and SPG achieves first biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China

China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co Ltd (Chimbusco) and Shandong Port Group (SPG) recently said they successfully completed the first B24 biofuel bunkering operation in Northern China on 14 June.

Chimbusco’s “DA YUAN YOU 8 ” tanker refuelled the “HMM VANCOUVER” with 1,300 metric tonnes (mt) of B24 biofuel at Qingdao Port.

Chimbusco said the successful bunkering operation not only marks a milestone in the bonded biofuel bunkering business for international voyage vessels in northern China but also represents a critical milestone in the green and low-carbon transformation of the shipping industry around the Bohai Sea and throughout northern China. 

B24 biofuel is a blend of 24% waste cooking oil and 76% high-sulphur fuel oil. Authoritatively certified, the company said this fuel can significantly reduce carbon emissions from vessel operations by up to 20%, providing shipowners with an efficient and convenient low-carbon solution to comply with increasingly stringent International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction regulations. 

Since the beginning of this year, Chimbusco said it has achieved top records of bunkering volumes in the green fuel sector. From the first successful operation at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in eastern China to subsequent bunkering operations in Shenzhen, Xiamen, and other major ports across the country, the company has further consolidated its regular supply capabilities. 

During this in-depth cooperation with SPG’s Qingdao Port, Chimbusco’s “Green Energy Label” made its debut at the operation site. 

“This further confirms that Chimbusco is deploying green fuel bunkering services to help Chinese ports accelerate the construction of a maritime green energy supply network,” the company said. 

 

Photo credit: Shandong Port Group
Published: 20 June, 2025

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Ammonia

Korea to develop global standards for discharge of toxic effluent from ammonia-fuelled ships

KR and major Korean shipyards such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Samho and Samsung Heavy Industries will be part of the group.

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Korea to develop global standards for discharge of toxic effluent from ammonia-fuelled ships

Classification society Korean Register (KR) said it has launched a joint working group to establish international standards for the safe discharge of toxic ammonia effluent generated from ammonia-fuelled ships.

Major Korean shipyards such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Samho, Samsung Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, and the Korea Testing & Research Institute (KTR) will be part of the group. 

KR said ammonia is attracting attention as an eco-friendly alternative fuel that does not emit carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, but due to its strong toxicity and concerns about marine pollution, it is essential to establish separate safety standards. 

In particular, ammonia effluent generated from wet treatment systems currently has no clear treatment standards, which causes considerable technical and operational uncertainty in ship design and operation.

Accordingly, the group aims to establish international standards related to the storage, treatment, and discharge of ammonia wastewater generated from ships and to officially propose this to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) through the Korean government.

The launch of this consultative body is a follow-up measure to a proposal by KR and the Korean government to the IMO in 2024 for the need to establish safety standards for ammonia effluent, which was officially approved at the 83rd IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in April 2025. The group plans to propose a draft standard to the IMO in 2026 and lead international discussions.

Kim Tae-seong, Head of the KTR headquarters, said: “We will provide reliable scientific data to establish ammonia wastewater management guidelines and treatment standards. We will actively cooperate to secure the international competitiveness of the domestic shipbuilding and shipping industries.”
Kim Kyung-bok, Vice President of KR, said: “This consultative body is a symbolic case of our shipbuilding and shipping industries joining forces to lead the establishment of international safety standards based on our country’s advanced technologies.”

“KR will continue to support the development of alternative fuel safety standards and international standardisation efforts together with our government.”

 

Photo credit: Korean Register
Published: 20 June, 2025

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Alternative Fuels

Fratelli Cosulich and IINO Lines to collaborate on alternative bunker fuels

Fratelli Cosulich Marine Energy and IINO Lines signed a MoU, setting a foundation for further collaboration in the areas of methanol, LNG, and ammonia bunkering.

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June 20, 2025

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RESIZED scott graham

Fratelli Cosulich Marine Energy and IINO Lines on Thursday (19 June) announced a strategic cooperation that reinforces their shared commitment to the decarbonisation of the maritime industry.

The two companies have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore new business opportunities in the alternative marine fuels sector. 

“This agreement marks a significant step in the long-standing relationship between the two companies and sets the foundation for further collaboration in the areas of methanol, LNG, and ammonia bunkering,” Fratelli Cosulich said. 

Through the MoU, the parties will engage in joint initiatives, exchange market insights, and facilitate connections with potential suppliers and stakeholders in the alternative fuels space. 

“We are proud to announce the partnership with Fratelli Cosulich for initiatives in alternative marine fuels. Both companies have extensive history in the shipping industry,” said Yusuke Otani, President of IINO Lines. 

“The joint development will enable a holistic approach for building a supply chain of alternative marine fuels.”

“As we navigate the energy transition, partnerships like the one we announce today with IINO Lines are essential in shaping the future of sustainable shipping,” said Timothy Cosulich, CEO of Fratelli Cosulich Group. 

“By combining our expertise and resources, we aim to drive the adoption of cleaner marine fuels and contribute to the decarbonization of global shipping.”

 

Photo credit: Scott Graham
Published: 20 June, 2025

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