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DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition

Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia are key to decarbonizing heavy transport including shipping; however, these fuels would not scale until the 2030s, according to a DNV forecast.

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Hydrogen has a crucial role in decarbonizing the world’s energy system, but uptake will be too slow. Governments need to make urgent, significant policy interventions, according to a new report by DNV published on Tuesday (14 June). 

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century. 

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.” 

According to Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolysers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyser capacity of 3,100 gigawatts. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today. 

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop. 

Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be USD 6.8tn, with an additional USD 180bn spent on hydrogen pipelines and USD 530bn on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs. Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but not between continents. Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship transport and the low energy density of hydrogen. The hydrogen derivative ammonia, which is more stable and can be more readily transported by ship, will be traded globally. 

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Hydrogen will not see uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating of buildings will not scale globally, but will see early uptake in some regions that already have extensive gas infrastructure.

“Scaling hydrogen value chains will require managing safety risk and public acceptance, as well as employing policies to make hydrogen projects competitive and bankable. We need to plan at the level of energy systems, enabling societies to embrace the urgent decarbonization opportunities presented by hydrogen,” added Eriksen. 

The uptake of hydrogen will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy. Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050, as enabling policies both kickstart the scaling of hydrogen production and stimulate end-use. 

OECD Pacific (hydrogen 8% of energy mix in 2050) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon-prices and less concrete targets and policies. Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme. These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.

Note: The full report ‘Hydrogen Forecast to 2050’ can be downloaded here

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 15 June, 2022

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SMW 2025: Singapore to launch new standard for electric harbour craft this week

MPA and Enterprise Singapore will launch the Technical Reference 136 to provide guidelines for the development and operation of charging and battery swap systems for electric harbour craft, says minister.

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SMW 2025: Singapore to launch new standard for electric harbour craft this week

Minister of State for Transport Murali Pillai on Monday (24 March) said Singapore will launch a new standard for electric harbour crafts this week as part of Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore’s (MPA) efforts in facilitating decarbonisation for domestic harbour craft to achieve the republic’s national target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

“MPA and Enterprise Singapore will launch the new Technical Reference 136 this week to provide guidelines for the development and operation of charging and battery swap systems for electric harbour craft,” Murali said during his speech at the opening ceremony of the Singapore Maritime Week 2025 (SMW 2025). 

“This will enhance the safety and interoperability of electric harbour craft charging infrastructure.”

This is one of the initiatives MPA is undertaking to prepare for the bunkering of alternative marine fuels and decarbonising Singapore’s domestic maritime sector.

The minister said Singapore is taking steps to support the use of various fuels by the industry and position Singapore as a leading bunkering hub for alternative fuels.

“Over the past two years, we have supported trials of alternative fuels such as ammonia and methanol. These have contributed to the development of new technical references and IMO guidelines to enable the safe and efficient use of these marine fuels,” he said.

“MPA and Enterprise Singapore published the new Technical Reference 129 on Methanol Bunkering earlier this month, and we plan to launch a new standard for ammonia bunkering later this year.”

He added MPA has also recently allowed licensed bunker tankers to carry and deliver biofuels up to B30. 

“Pilots for up to B100 are ongoing, and we welcome bunker suppliers to engage in these pilots,” he said.

At the opening ceremony of SMW 2025, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong, together with Murali, also launched Singapore’s first Maritime Digital Twin, an advanced simulation model developed by MPA in partnership with the Government Technology Agency of Singapore (GovTech) that integrates real-time data to enhance decision-making and improve management of maritime operations in Singapore waters.

Murali said the digital twin will integrate data from different sources and provide a platform for information sharing. This will enable the development of tools to optimise port efficiency and reliability above, at and below the sea surface.

“For example, the digital twin will enable scenario simulations and dispersion modelling, which can inform standard operating procedures for the safe bunkering of alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia,” he said.

The minister added MPA will roll out the digital twin to pilot users later this year, before progressive implementation for the wider industry. 

“In future, we can extend this to the global maritime ecosystem through our Green and Digital Shipping Corridors with other countries and ports,” he said. 

Related: Singapore-registered bunker tankers can transport up to B30 biofuels from 7 March
Related: Singapore releases new standard on methanol bunkering, gears up for multi-fuel future

 

Photo credit: Maritime and Port Authority of SingaporePublished: 24 March, 2025

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TFG Marine welcomes first of four ‘L’ series IMO type II bunkering tankers of Consort Bunkers

TFG Marine to operate Consort Bunkers’ bunkering tanker “Pearl Lavender”, capable of carrying methanol, biogrades up to B100, as well as conventional fuels, at Singapore port from April onwards.

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TFG Marine welcomes first of four 'L' series IMO type II bunkering tankers of Consort Bunkers

Global marine fuel supply and procurement firm TFG Marine on Friday (21 March) said it attended the delivery ceremony of bunker tanker Pearl Lavender at China Merchants Jinling shipyard in Nanjing. 

The IMO type II chemical bunkering tanker newbuilding is amongst others under long-term time charter from Singapore-based bunker supplier and logistics services provider Consort Bunkers Pte Ltd (Consort). 

"This state of the art vessel, capable of carrying methanol, biogrades up to B100, as well as conventional fuels, will be operational at the Port of Singapore from April 2025, further advancing our product offering to our client base in the APAC region," said TFG Marine. 

"As the first of four barges in this order, this investment builds on our commitment to low-carbon fuel bunkering infrastructure, reinforcing our vision for a multi-fuel future. 

"With methanol, biofuels, ammonia, and other alternative fuels playing an increasingly significant role alongside traditional marine fuels, we continue to support the industry's transition towards cleaner energy solutions."

Manifold Times previously reported that Consort first contracted six ‘L’ series 6,500 dwt IMO Type II bunker tankers with China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. in April 2023.

The ‘L’ series of bunker tanker newbuildings gained recognition from the China Association of The National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) as amongst the Chinese shipbuilding sector’s top 10 innovative vessels for 2024.

Last year, TFG Marine announced the signing of a long-term time charter agreement with Singapore-based bunker supplier and logistics services provider Consort Bunkers for four newbuild bunker tankers.

Related: TFG Marine to charter Consort Bunkers newbuild methanol bunker tankers in Singapore
Related: Consort Bunkers ‘L’ series newbuildings amongst top 10 ‘innovative achievements’ of Chinese shipbuilders
Related: Consort Bunkers ordering up to 20 x IMO Type II bunker tankers in region of USD $350 million

 

Photo credit: TFG Marine
Published: 24 March, 2025

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RINA awards Type Approval to VINSSEN for maritime fuel cell stack

Approval of VINSSEN 60kW maritime fuel cell stack will accelerate the demonstration and commercialisation of its 120kW maritime fuel cell power generation system.

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RINA awards Type Approval to VINSSEN for maritime fuel cell stack

South Korea’s maritime decarbonisation technology provider VINSSEN on Friday (21 March) said it has received Type Approval from Italian classification society RINA for its 60kW maritime fuel cell stack. 

The company said the approval will accelerate the demonstration and commercialisation of VINSSEN's 120kW maritime fuel cell power generation system.

Despite the absence of clear maritime hydrogen-related legal standards, the company has leveraged regulatory sandboxes to systematically conduct technology verification and rigorous certification procedures, demonstrating its technical expertise.

“The recent Type Approval from RINA not only strengthens international confidence in hydrogen fuel cell technology for eco-friendly ships but also marks a significant step toward full commercialisation,” it said. 

“This milestone reflects the company's commitment to promoting hydrogen fuel cells as a key solution for reducing maritime carbon emissions.”

The certification process involved performance and environmental tests based on IEC standards, all of which VINSSEN successfully passed. The vibration test confirmed the system's durability under specific frequency and acceleration conditions. 

Additionally, the dielectric strength test showed that the system could withstand high voltage without insulation failure, meeting all required standards. 

“These challenging tests were successfully completed, confirming the reliability and safety of VINSSEN's fuel cell module for maritime and shipbuilding applications,” the company said. 

Looking ahead, VINSSEN plans to accelerate the development of next-generation hydrogen fuel cell solutions, including a 150kW high-output fuel cell stack and an onboard fuel cell power generation system using reformed gas (75% hydrogen and 25% nitrogen). These innovations will increase the feasibility of applying MW-class hydrogen fuel cell systems to larger vessels.

A VINSSEN representative said: “This Type Approval is a key milestone for the commercialisation of MW-class maritime hydrogen fuel cell systems. We will continue leading the maritime market through ongoing technological innovation and the pursuit of global certifications.”

Manifold Times recently reported VINSSEN receiving an Approval in Principle (AIP) certification from the Korean Register (KR) for Korea's first tugboat featuring a hydrogen fuel cell propulsion system.

Related: KR awards AiP to VINSSEN for Korea’s first hydrogen fuel cell-powered tugboat

 

Photo credit: VINSSEN
Published: 24 March, 2025

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