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DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition

Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia are key to decarbonizing heavy transport including shipping; however, these fuels would not scale until the 2030s, according to a DNV forecast.

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Hydrogen has a crucial role in decarbonizing the world’s energy system, but uptake will be too slow. Governments need to make urgent, significant policy interventions, according to a new report by DNV published on Tuesday (14 June). 

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century. 

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. 

“Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.” 

According to Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolysers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyser capacity of 3,100 gigawatts. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today. 

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop. 

Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be USD 6.8tn, with an additional USD 180bn spent on hydrogen pipelines and USD 530bn on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs. Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but not between continents. Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship transport and the low energy density of hydrogen. The hydrogen derivative ammonia, which is more stable and can be more readily transported by ship, will be traded globally. 

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts. 

Hydrogen will not see uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating of buildings will not scale globally, but will see early uptake in some regions that already have extensive gas infrastructure.

“Scaling hydrogen value chains will require managing safety risk and public acceptance, as well as employing policies to make hydrogen projects competitive and bankable. We need to plan at the level of energy systems, enabling societies to embrace the urgent decarbonization opportunities presented by hydrogen,” added Eriksen. 

The uptake of hydrogen will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy. Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050, as enabling policies both kickstart the scaling of hydrogen production and stimulate end-use. 

OECD Pacific (hydrogen 8% of energy mix in 2050) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon-prices and less concrete targets and policies. Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme. These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.

Note: The full report ‘Hydrogen Forecast to 2050’ can be downloaded here

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 15 June, 2022

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Biofuel

GoodFuels ceases bio bunker fuel deliveries in Singapore after near three-year run

‘Whilst the GoodFuels team will continue its efforts to decarbonise global shipping from the Amsterdam office, we will be stopping all biofuel deliveries in Singapore with immediate effect,’ says Jing Xieng Han.

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Biofuel supplier GoodFuels, FincoEnergies’ sustainable fuels brand, has stopped all biofuel deliveries in Singapore with immediate effect, according to Jing Xieng Han, General Manager of GoodFuels Asia Pacific, on Wednesday (6 November). 

GoodFuels first announced the opening of its first office in Singapore in February 2022. The Singapore office was GoodFuels’ second office and its first outside of Europe. 

At the time, GoodFuels said Singapore was chosen as the target for its first international expansion because of its importance to the global shipping industry and its leading position as a key bunkering hub, with mature bunkering infrastructure that will support the delivery of marine biofuel.

Jing said FincoEnergies has decided to consolidate GoodFuels operations in the Asia Pacific and ARA regions. 

“Whilst the GoodFuels team will continue its efforts to decarbonise global shipping from the Amsterdam office, we will be stopping all biofuel deliveries in Singapore with immediate effect,” she said in a social media post. 

“Our Amsterdam team remains dedicated to furthering the decarbonization of global shipping 'the Good Way' and I wish them continued success.”

Jing also announced that she will be departing GoodFuels Asia Pacific, effective 6 November as well. 

“It has been a privilege to contribute to the integration of biofuels into the bunkering sector in Singapore over the past three years,” she said.

“The rapid evolution of the industry has been mind-blowing, and I fondly recall addressing numerous queries on the technical feasibilities of biofuels as bunker fuels when I first launched our Singapore office in early 2022.”

Related: GoodFuels opens first Singapore office to meet growing biofuel demand

 

Photo credit: GoodFuels
Published: 7 November, 2024

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Biofuel

Chimbusco Pan Nation completes first B24 bio bunker fuel delivery in Singapore

CPN supplied 1,000 metric tonnes of ISCC-EU Certified B24 marine biofuel for “YM WITNESS”, a containership of Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp on 16 October.

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Chimbusco Pan Nation completes first B24 bio bunker fuel delivery in Singapore

Hong Kong-based marine fuel oil supplier Chimbusco Pan Nation Petro-Chemical (CPN) on Wednesday (6 November) completed the supply of 1,000 metric tonnes of ISCC-EU Certified B24 marine biofuel for YM WITNESS, a containership of Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp on 16 October. 

“This also embarks on CPN’s new journey to arrange supplying marine biofuel in Singapore,” the firm said in a social media post. 

B24 marine biofuel is a blend of 24% B100 biodiesel and Marine Fuel Oil, which significantly reduces carbon emissions and lowers its carbon footprint. Such product aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and reduces environmental impact. 

“CPN is committed to be the frontrunner in the transition towards more sustainable marine fuel options. This biofuel delivery reinforces CPN’s commitment to realizing eco-friendly port energy solutions and global decarbonisation goals,” it added. 

 

Photo credit: Chimbusco Pan Nation Petro-Chemical
Published: 7 November, 2024

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LNG Bunkering

Titan completes LNG bunkering operation in Port of Zeebrugge

Titan supplied newly built PCTC “Peony Leader” using bunkering vessel “Optimus”, marking the PCTC’s maiden LNG bunkering operation.

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Titan completes LNG bunkering operation in Port of Zeebrugge

LNG bunker fuel supplier Titan on Wednesday (6 November) said it has completed a LNG bunkering operation in the Port of Zeebrugge. 

Titan supplied the newly built Peony Leader Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC) using Optimus – one of its LNG bunkering vessels (LBV).

“This was the maiden voyage for the Peony Leader, as well as the first time it bunkered LNG while in service. The Optimus’ crew closely supported throughout the process, providing guidance and information to the seafarers onboard the vehicle carrier,” it said in a social media post. 

“Our commercial team also visited CSP Zeebrugge to meet the new client, Chimbusco. With a greatly increasing number of PCTC newbuilds being LNG dual-fuelled, we look forward to many more successful LNG bunkering operations with Chimbusco and other shipowners in this segment.”

 

Photo credit: Titan
Published: 7 November, 2024

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