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Integr8 Fuels: Cheaper bunkers ahead? Supply surge signals more downside

Research Contributor Steve Christy analyses dynamics in international relations and focuses on the main drivers within the oil market to gauge where bunker prices are going.

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Integr8 Fuels: Cheaper bunkers ahead? Supply surge signals more downside

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]     

Falling prices in August

Singapore VLSFO prices have continued to track Brent crude, and the good news for bunker buyers is that Brent prices have fallen. VLSFO prices in the main bunker centres are now at their lowest levels for around three months.

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The challenge is always to gauge where prices are going from here. Of course, politics, war and sentiment are going to have a huge bearing, and who knows where the ongoing discussions between President Trump and President Putin will take us. Stating the obvious, an end to the war in Ukraine (and the removal of sanctions on Russia) would see oil prices fall; an escalation in the war, or heightened tensions, or further direct and indirect sanctions on Russian oil exports could see prices rise. But even political experts will struggle to tell us which way it is going to go!

All we can do here is to take onboard the dynamics in international relations, and then separate and focus on the main drivers within the oil market.

OPEC+ unwinding production cuts is pushing prices lower

On the supply side, in April, OPEC+ members started to unwind the 2.2 million b/d of voluntary production cutbacks (these cutbacks were agreed in November 2023 and started in the first quarter of 2024). At the same time as the OPEC+ increase, UAE’s production quota is being raised by 0.3 million b/d.

The increase in OPEC+ production since April has not been linear. There are also other complications, in that some countries are unlikely to be able to raise production back to their quota levels. However, in early August, OPEC+ agreed to increase September production by 0.55 million b/d, which will fully unwind the cuts. This means Saudi Arabian output is likely to be close to 10 million b/d (versus 9 million b/d earlier in the year) and UAE production is forecast to rise as its agreed higher quota is introduced. As a result, by September/October, OPEC+ output is likely to be around 2 million b/d higher than it was in March.

On top of this, non-OPEC+ production is forecast to rise by around 1 million b/d over the same period. Hence supply is forecast to rise very steeply this year, with the graph below illustrating the hike from 104 million b/d in Q1 to 107 million b/d in Q4.

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However, the same cannot be said for oil demand. Relatively weak underlying economies, huge economic uncertainty surrounding proposed hikes in US tariffs and the continual shift towards more electric vehicles (EVs) has undermined growth in global oil demand. There have been continual downwards revisions to forecast demand for this year and next, with the IEA currently indicating growth of 0.7 million b/d for 2025 and another 0.7 million b/d in 2026 (equivalent to 0.7%).

Global oil stocks set to rise sharply?

With OPEC+ restricting output in 2024, oil supply and demand were more-or-less in balance. But this balance is literally unwinding as OPEC+ remove their voluntary production cutbacks over the second and third quarters of this year.

We have already seen slight global stock-builds so far this year. Now we are expecting OPEC+ production to ramp up at the same time as world oil demand goes into a seasonal decline from the third to the fourth quarter. Nowadays peak oil demand is in the northern hemisphere summer months, with a seasonal fall of around 1.5 million b/d from Q3 to Q1 the next year.

The pointers are very clear on this basis; we are looking at potentially very big oil stock-builds over the remainder of this year and going into next year. This bearish view is compounded when looking at the demand fundamentals for next year. Even if OPEC+ keep to their plans and maintain their other 3.65 million b/d of cuts in place through 2026, there is still too much oil in the market!

In the case outlined here, stock builds would start to balloon to around 3 million b/d in the fourth quarter this year and then continue at 3-4 million b/d through the first half of next year.

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The issue for OPEC+ is these bearish fundamentals don’t go away, with potential stock-builds going through the second half of next year as well.

War and politics will cloud the outlook and drive oil prices at certain key periods. But we can’t get away from the fact that OPEC+ unwinding their voluntary production cutbacks at this time has placed a massive bearish fundamental position on the oil market. War, Trump, Putin, and sanctions aside, it would look like bunker prices should go much lower over the rest of this year and into 2026.

Given this, what can change?

Any escalation in wars, or the threat of wider involvement will push oil prices high. As will any tightening of sanctions on Russia (or Iran). These developments would ‘cover’ the increases in OPEC+ output and likely support oil prices at higher levels.

Alternatively, any end to the war in Ukraine and ‘reinstatement’ of Russia back into the international arena will only add to the bearish fundamentals outlined here, and push prices even lower. This second option looks good for ‘world order’ and for bunker buyers!

If prices go ‘too low’ then expect an OPEC+ response

However, if prices fall to very low levels because of very weak fundamentals, or a solution to the Russia/Ukraine war, or a combination of both, then OPEC+ is likely to respond. The big players in these OPEC+ decisions are still hugely reliant on oil incomes for their economies and development programs. They are also very good, and ultimately successful, at responding to extreme price falls, with production cuts to re-balance the market. A 10% cut in oil production by these players would result in a much bigger than 10% rise in oil prices, i.e. a cut would raise their revenues.

So, perhaps we want lower prices, but not too low to provoke an OPEC+ response!

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 21 August, 2025

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Methanol

World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to “Arctic Tern” via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel “M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan”.

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World Fuel and partners complete first green methanol bunkering of car carrier in Shanghai

Marine fuel provider World Fuel on Tuesday (21 July) said it successfully completed the first green methanol bunkering of M/V Arctic Tern, with EUKOR Car Carriers and SIPG Energy at the Port of Shanghai. 

Arctic Tern is the first vessel in the new Shaper Class series of car carriers. 

The operation involved the delivery of approximately 2,800 MT of green methanol to Arctic Tern via a ship-to-ship transfer using SIPG Energy’s dedicated methanol bunkering vessel M/V Hai Gang Zhi Yuan, the largest vessel of its kind in operation. 

The bunkering operation was carried out at Haitong Terminal, Waigaoqiao Port Area, Shanghai Port, with cargo handling operations conducted simultaneously during bunkering.

This marks EUKOR Car Carriers’ first green methanol operation and the first time Arctic Tern has bunkered methanol since its delivery on 9 July. The operation marked the first bunkering at Shanghai Port of green methanol produced locally in Shanghai for an international PCTC operator. 

It also demonstrated the city’s integrated green methanol value chain, spanning local production, storage and bunkering, and established a replicable “Shanghai Model” for green methanol supply.

World Fuel arranged the supply and delivery of the fuel on behalf of EUKOR Car Carriers, working with SIPG Energy as the physical supplier at the Port of Shanghai.

The green methanol supplied was produced from municipal solid waste, ISCC-EU certified, and had a carbon intensity value below 25 gCO₂e/MJ.

Arctic Tern is the first of fourteen Shaper Class vessels ordered by Wallenius Wilhelmsen. With a capacity of 9,300 car equivalent units and methanol dual-fuel capability, the vessel will be operated by EUKOR Car Carriers, jointly owned by Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Hyundai Motor Group. Following her first green methanol bunkering, Arctic Tern will continue her maiden voyage from Asia to Europe.

Xavier Leroi, COO Shipping Services at Wallenius Wilhelmsen and CEO of EUKOR Car Carriers, said: “Completing Arctic Tern’s first green methanol bunkering shortly after delivery is a significant milestone towards our decarbonisation ambition for both EUKOR Car Carriers and Wallenius Wilhelmsen. It demonstrates how investments in next-generation vessel technology and fuel flexibility are being translated into real-world operations. 

“This achievement reflects the strong collaboration between all parties involved. Together, we have shown how partnerships across the maritime value chain can help make lower-emission fuels available and operationally viable at scale.”

Mark Tamsitt, SVP Global Marine Sales at World Fuel, said, “The first bunkering event with a new fuel is a significant moment for any shipowner, and our role is to make it as seamless as possible. By connecting EUKOR Car Carriers with SIPG Energy’s proven green methanol capability at the Port of Shanghai, we were able to deliver on reliable supply, fuel quality, and safe processes. As more of our customers bring methanol dual-fuel tonnage into service, we are committed to being the partner that makes these kinds of operations routine.”

Mr. Zhang Da, General Manager of SIPG Energy, said, “Welcoming Arctic Tern to the Port of Shanghai for her first green methanol bunkering demonstrates the strength and maturity of our supply capability. Building on our well-established methanol ship-to-ship bunkering services for container vessels, we have already extended such services to pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). This bunkering sets a new record for the largest single SIMOPs green methanol bunkering for PCTCs in China, marking another step in building Shanghai’s position as a global green energy hub for international shipping.”

This operation follows Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s announcement on 9 July that Arctic Tern would complete her first methanol bunkering shortly after delivery. The vessel entered service on routes between Asia and Europe immediately following handover from China Merchants Jinling Shipyard in Nanjing.

 

Photo credit: World Fuel
Published: 22 July, 2026

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Ammonia

HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

HPA says the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

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HPA and MB Energy develop safety concept for STS ammonia bunkering

The Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) and integrated energy company MB Energy on Tuesday (21 July) said they have completed a comprehensive risk analysis and developed a dedicated safety concept for ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering.

MB Energy said the analysis lays the groundwork for the safe introduction of ammonia as a future marine fuel.

“With our planned ammonia import terminal in Hamburg-Blumensand, MB Energy intends to provide the reliable land side supply infrastructure needed to support this transition across northern German ports,” it said in a social media post. 

Mabanaft Group was renamed to MB Energy last year and merged over 50 existing brands under one identity. 

Separately, HPA said the Port of Hamburg will become “bunker ready” for ammonia, laying the groundwork for safe and reliable ammonia bunkering in the future.

“The focus is in particular on container ships, cruise ships as well as RoRo and ConRo (Container/RoRo) ships,” it said. 

“We expect ammonia to establish itself as an alternative marine marine fuel in the coming years. With our preparatory work, we are already creating the conditions to welcome the first ammonia-powered ships in Hamburg and to bunker them safely.:

HPA added that the import terminal for ammonia planned by MB Energy from 2029 will make a decisive contribution to ensuring the reliable availability of ammonia as a bunker fuel in northern German ports in the long term. 

“The use of an ammonia bunker barge is considered a possible addition to the landside infrastructure to enable ship bunkering in the port and beyond in the future,” it said.

Related: Mabanaft Group renames as MB Energy, merging over 50 brands under one identity

 

Photo credit: Hamburg Port Authority
Published: 22 July, 2026

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Bunker Fuel

Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

Darren Lee Axisa discusses the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub.

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Alkagesta highlights key insights of Malta bunkering market in 2026

In an article published on Alkagesta Market Insights, Darren Lee Axisa, Malta Country Manager of Alkagesta, on Monday (20 July) discussed the key trends influencing Malta’s bunkering market and the factors that will determine Malta’s long-term competitiveness as a regional bunkering hub: 

Malta’s bunkering and energy market is moving through a period of structural adjustment. The disruptions that defined the first half of 2026 have accelerated shifts in product demand, terminal strategy, and the competitive dynamics of one of the Mediterranean’s most strategically positioned bunkering hubs. For Alkagesta, whose storage footprint on the island approaches 300,000 cubic metres, the period has tested operational flexibility while reinforcing the value of diversified infrastructure access.

A Market Shifting in Two Directions

Malta’s broader economy has remained resilient — GDP growth reached 3.9% in Q1 2026 — but the bunkering market has undergone a significant product mix shift, the roots of which predate the current geopolitical disruption.

The Mediterranean Emission Control Area, which came into force on 1 May 2025, triggered an immediate and measurable realignment in fuel demand across the region. VPS data covering the first six months post-ECA implementation shows that across the top ten Mediterranean bunkering ports, VLSFO volumes fell 23%, MGO more than doubled, ULSFO quadrupled, and biofuels increased fivefold. In Valletta specifically, the shift was even more pronounced: VLSFO dropped 57% from 111,641 mt to 47,732 mt, while MGO volumes more than tripled from 33,299 mt to 103,445 mt, and ULSFO rose from 2,821 mt to 34,535 mt over the same period.

This structural rotation has been further accelerated by the broader regulatory environment. FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS requirements are pushing shipowners toward cleaner, verifiable fuel options at every port call — a direction Alkagesta had already positioned itself ahead of, having been among the first movers in the Mediterranean to support the transition to 0.1% sulphur fuel oil following the ECA’s introduction.

Layered on top of this regulatory shift has been a period of reduced terminal capacity affecting bunkering market availability across the island. Fuel oil volumes dropped roughly 35% year-on-year between January and May 2026, falling from approximately 382,000 mt in 2025 to 247,000 mt. DMA demand moved sharply in the opposite direction, rising from around 150,000 mt in January to April 2025 to 247,000 mt over the same period in 2026 — a trend consistent with both the ECA-driven product mix shift and the disruption to heavier fuel availability during the constrained period.

Note: The full article can be read here

 

Photo credit: Alkagesta
Published: 22 July, 2026

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