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SEA-LNG: Lifetime fuel costs of LNG pathway expected to be half of methanol and ammonia

Analysis shows lifetime cost of complying with regulatory regimes like FuelEU Maritime for LNG-fuelled vessels will be around half that of methanol and ammonia powered alternatives over coming decades.

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Global multi-sector industry coalition SEA-LNG on Thursday (15 June) said its analysis showed the lifetime fuel costs of meeting key European decarbonisation targets for shipping through the LNG pathway are expected to be roughly half that of the methanol or ammonia pathways.

Building on recent work by the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) projecting fuel costs for alternative marine fuels out to 2050 (see Figure 1) and using long-term price benchmarks for ammonia, methanol and LNG as a marine fuel, SEA-LNG has calculated the cost of compliance with FuelEU Maritime regulations for a typical 14k TEU newbuild container vessel coming into operation in 2025.

FuelEU Maritime requires vessels to reduce the intensity of greenhouse gases produced by their energy consumption in coming years against a benchmark of the fleetwide average in 2020. 

Grey versions of ammonia and methanol start at a significant disadvantage to LNG. The additional greenhouse gas emissions involved in producing ammonia and methanol from natural gas means that respectively these grey fuels emit 47% and 14% more GHG emissions than VLSFO on a well-to-wake basis. Fossil, or grey LNG, offers up to 23% immediate GHG emission reductions compared to VLSFO on a well-to-wake lifecycle basis.

What this means is that owners opting for LNG-fuelled vessels will be able to meet the reduction targets until 2039 without needing to blend their fuel with low-carbon bio-LNG or renewable synthetic e-LNG. By contrast, owners of methanol and ammonia fuelled vessels will need to include significant proportions of a green fuel immediately to meet the regulations, vastly inflating their fuel bills.

Assuming an average fuel burn for the typical 14k TEU newbuild container vessel of 146 tonnes of VLSFO equivalent per day (as per Figure 2 above), a methanol-powered vessel would require a 14% green fuel blend to comply with FuelEU Maritime in 2025 at a fuel cost of almost USD55m per year, assuming the use of biomethanol. An ammonia powered vessel, if such a thing existed, would require a 33% green fuel blend to comply and face a fuel bill of about USD80m per year if using e-ammonia. LNG by contrast would require no blending with a fuel bill of just over USD20m per year. 

By 2040, LNG would require a 14% green fuel blend and annual fuel costs are expected to reach around USD25m, assuming the use of bio-LNG. Methanol’s green fuel blend requirement, will have increased to 40%, resulting in an annual fuel bill of just over USD 55m, assuming the use of biomethanol - the effects of the increased volume of biomethanol required offset by the falling costs of the green fuel. For ammonia the blend ratio will have increased to 53% with a blended fuel cost of approximately USD70m – the effects of the increased volume of e-ammonia required more than offset by the falling costs of the e-fuel. By 2050, SEA-LNG analysis shows that all three fuel options will have significant blends of green fuels in the form of bio- and e-fuels and we expect to see a convergence in overall fuel costs.

In summary, this simple analysis shows (as illustrated in Table 1, below) that the LNG pathway to compliance with FuelEU Maritime offers massively lower fuel costs than both the methanol and ammonia pathways, particularly in the first 15 years’ of the vessel’s life – a period critical for vessel financing decisions. The methanol pathway is approximately 2.5 times more expensive and the ammonia pathway 3.5 times more expensive.

Similar analysis can be undertaken for other sectors and while the absolute numbers will be different the cost ratios for the different pathways will be similar.

SEA-LNG COO Steve Esau, said: “Our analysis shows that lifetime fuel costs of achieving net-zero emissions through the LNG pathway are expected to be roughly half that of those for methanol and ammonia. This underlines the importance of understanding the implications of the journey to net zero as well as the destination. LNG offers GHG reductions today and a low cost, incremental solution for decarbonisation.”

SEA-LNG added it is currently developing a cost of compliance calculator that will enable ship owners, investors, charterers, and operators to explore the commercial implications of different fuel choices in complying with EU and IMO regulations.

Note: The full analysis can be read here

Related: SEA-LNG slams ‘Say No to LNG’: Campaign based on ‘false contention’
Related: Énestas joins SEA-LNG to share insights on Mexican and U.S. LNG bunkering
Related: SEA-LNG publishes overview of LNG as bunker fuel for 2022 to 2023
Related: SEA-LNG: Bio-LNG is the most readily available solution to decarbonise shipping
Related: SEA-LNG: New independent study confirms bio-LNG’s role in shipping’s decarbonisation
Related: SEA-LNG calls UCL report on LNG capable ships ‘a flawed academic exercise, detached from reality’
Related: SEA-LNG slams ICCT: Report on LNG Pathway makes ‘flawed assumptions based on outdated data’
Related: SEA-LNG: LNG retrofits will rate higher under CII than HFO/scrubber or VLSFO alternatives
Related: SEA LNG: Compare ‘apples with apples’ to cut emissions and costs

 

Photo credit: Cameron Venti from Unsplash
Published: 16 June, 2023

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Biofuel

TotalEnergies Marine Fuels renews ISCC EU certification for bio bunker fuel  

Firm’s operations teams in Singapore and Geneva successfully renewed its ISCC EU sustainability certification for the supply of biofuel bunkers, says Louise Tricoire, Vice President.

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TotalEnergies Marine Fuels renews ISCC EU certification for bio bunker fuel

Louise Tricoire, Vice President of TotalEnergies Marine Fuels recently said the firm’s operations teams in Singapore and Geneva successfully renewed its International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) EU sustainability certification for the supply of biofuel bunkers.

“This means that TotalEnergies Marine Fuels can continue sourcing and supplying marine biofuels in accordance with EU renewable energy regulations ensuring the highest sustainability standards,” she said in a social media. 

“It's the third year in a row that we have successfully renewed this certification, after a deep and comprehensive audit which showed zero non-conformity.”

She added marine biofuels have grown in demand among shipping companies that want to cut greenhouse gas emissions immediately. 

“TotalEnergies Marine Fuels offers marine biofuels commercially in Singapore and we are starting in Europe. This certification enables us to accompany our customers in their decarbonisation journey with the best standard solutions available today.”

Photo credit: TotalEnergies Marine Fuels
Published: 29 September, 2023

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Alternative Fuels

Seapath, Pilot LNG launch JV to develop dedicated LNG bunkering facility in US Gulf Coast

With operations beginning in early 2026, the construction of the new facility will provide bunker fuel for LNG-powered vessels in the greater Houston/ Galveston area of Texas.

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Seapath, Pilot LNG launch JV to develop dedicated LNG bunkering facility in US Gulf Coast

Seapath, a maritime subsidiary of Libra Group, and Pilot LNG, LLC (Pilot), a leading Houston-based clean energy solutions company, on Thursday (28 September) announced that they have formed a joint venture (JV) to develop, construct, and operate the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering facility in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

With operations beginning in early 2026, the construction of the new facility will provide bunker fuel for LNG-powered vessels in the greater Houston/ Galveston area of Texas.

The project, which will be developed with an initial investment of approximately USD 150 million, meets the needs of a vital global and U.S. trade corridor. According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Greater Houston waterways generated over USD 906 billion in economic value to the U.S. in 2022. 

In addition, a 2023 U.S. Department of Transportation report recognised the Greater Houston area as the top US port by tonnage.

While LNG bunkering infrastructure has been developing overseas, U.S. infrastructure supporting its uptake has developed slower. Pilot and Seapath’s LNG bunkering facility will use their combined expertise to serve essential U.S. Gulf Coast port complexes, including servicing major cruise lines and container vessel operators.

Led by LNG industry veterans with extensive experience on the terminal and marine side, Pilot LNG is committed to delivering LNG to new and existing U.S. markets, including fuel/bunkering terminals and related infrastructure. This is the first in a series of strategic investments by Seapath and Pilot to create a network of LNG facilities in areas of unmet need in the U.S.

“Seapath is dedicated to investing across the marine infrastructure space and will provide strong financial backing to Pilot’s LNG bunker projects,” said Jonathan Cook, CEO of Pilot. 

“We look forward to working closely with Seapath to support the gradual decarbonization of the marine industry. We look forward to delivering a U.S. Gulf Coast facility in a timely manner based on the extensive development work already completed to meet the significant needs for LNG fuel, which also supports ongoing decarbonization across the industry.”

A U.S. company led by Merchant Mariners and former service members, Seapath was formed recognizing the need for critical investments in the U.S. maritime economy. The company plans to continue investing in innovative projects within maritime connectivity, industrial technologies, port real estate, and Jones Act vessels.

“The infrastructure under development will provide LNG to a growing market seeking cleaner marine fuel, particularly as customers look for economical ways to comply with tightening emissions regulations, including regulations set by the IMO in 2020,” said Seapath CEO Greg Otto.  

“We are pleased to be working with a first-class team in Pilot LNG and with some of the leading ports in the United States to bring this critical LNG bunkering infrastructure to the Gulf Coast region where there is high demand for it. Thanks to our valuable partnership with Pilot, we look forward to developing more of these much-needed facilities in ports across the United States.”

Seapath is one of 30 operational entities of Libra Group, a privately owned business group whose subsidiaries own and operate assets in nearly 60 countries with six business sectors, including maritime and renewable energy. The Group’s three maritime subsidiaries include Lomar Shipping, a global shipping company with a fleet of more than 40 vessels, and Americraft Marine, which owns and operates a Jones Act Shipyard in Palatka, Florida. Significantly, the shipyard is among the few in the U.S. to construct crew transfer vessels to service the growing offshore-wind industry and traditional inland-marine assets such as tugboats and barges.

“Libra Group is committed to advancing innovation across our sectors, from maritime to aerospace, to renewable energy and more. As a global organization, we will harness insights from across our network to bolster the uptake of more sustainable technologies to advance our sectors while identifying potential applications across our other sectors,” said Manos Kouligkas, CEO of Libra Group.

“Adoption of more sustainable fuels is critical to future-proofing our industries against a rapidly changing ecosystem. We will continue to support the transition to greener energy solutions, and we look forward to following Seapath’s work to evolve the U.S. maritime industrial sector.”

Pilot and Seapath will continue with all front-end engineering and design development for their projects in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 to file applications with the necessary federal and state agencies to permit, site, construct and operate the small-scale LNG terminal for marine fuel. Pilot and Seapath anticipate announcing details of their project investment by the second half of 2024.

Photo credit: Libra Group
Published: 29 September, 2023

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Biofuel

Bureau Veritas on biofuels: The transitional bunker fuel of today? 

BV published an article stating that biofuels are a promising turnkey transitional fuel but outlined practical and technical issues that shipping companies should consider.

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Bureau Veritas on biofuels: The transitional bunker fuel of today?

Classification society Bureau Veritas on Thursday (28 September) published an article stating that biofuels is a promising turnkey transitional bunker fuel but outlined practical and technical issues that shipping companies should consider: 

The race is on to transition to low-carbon alternative fuels and biofuels are gaining momentum. But what are they? Biofuels are gaseous or liquid fuels produced from biomass – organic matter of biological and non-fossil origin. Easily adaptable to existing vessels, biofuels are a promising turnkey transitional fuel. Let’s dive deeper to examine this promise.

ARE LOW-CARBON BIOFUELS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE?

Biofuels can be broadly categorized into three generations, some of which are ready for use in shipping, and others still maturing:

  • First generation, or conventional biofuels, are generated using agricultural crops, vegetable oil or food waste. These are the most commonly used biofuels worldwide.
  • Second generation, or advanced biofuels, are produced from- non-food biomass feedstocks like residual feedstocks from forestry or crops. They could have fewer negative environmental impacts relating to land use and food production.
  • Third generation biofuels are a future generation of biofuels currently needing further development, produced from algae and microbes.

Currently, first-generation biofuels are the most widely available. However, their scalability is constrained by the origin of their feedstock, which is food-purposed crops and thus entails direct and indirect land-use changes.

Second-generation biofuels, produced from non-food feedstocks such as forest biomass and agricultural crops, are free of some constraints associated with first-generation biofuels. Their role in decarbonizing shipping will likely be crucial. However, it will require a sharp uptake in supply, which inherently requires significant investments.

DO BIOFUEL PRODUCTION PATHWAYS MATTER?

Yes, they absolutely do! The way a biofuel is produced and the feedstock used are key when analyzing a biofuel’s lifecycle GHG emissions. They therefore have an impact on determining whether they can be considered as low-carbon fuel. There is currently no globally accepted standard or certification in place to ensure the end-to-end sustainable production of biofuels. First generation biofuels, for example, are carbon neutral on paper. But, this claim becomes far more complex from a well-to-wake perspective and when considering more holistic sustainability criteria.

What other kind of ramifications might biofuel production entail? For one, the land needed for production is already in high demand to expand croplands around the world. This puts first-generation biofuel production and food markets in competition with each other – not an easy battle to win. From an ethical standpoint, most would prioritize meeting global food demand over fueling ships.

WHAT SHIPPING COMPANIES NEED TO KNOW

When it comes to biofuel use there are two broad categories of considerations for shipping companies: the practical and the technical.

ON THE PRACTICAL SIDE…

Thus far, as with many fuels, it is difficult to predict the exact future prices of biofuels. Blending biofuels with fossil fuels can reduce the overall energy content which means more fuel is needed to maintain performance. Besides, maintenance may have to be adapted in cooperation with OEMs depending on which biofuels and blends are used. The latter can lead to additional OPEX costs that shipping companies will need to shoulder.

Another crucial factor is availability. At current production rates biofuels are unlikely to be able to meet a large proportion of global maritime demand. Competition with other sectors, such as land-based transportation, may compound concerns surrounding availability. This factor is not, however, specific to biofuels – availability remains a challenge for several other potential marine fuels.

The practical disadvantage of biofuels is a question of supply – particularly for the more ecological second- and third-generations. Theoretically, these later second generation biofuels could become a flexible and sustainable refueling option. Their required feedstocks are available worldwide, and port infrastructure should not require significant adaptations to accommodate them. Practically, however, they need to be produced at much greater scale.

AND THE TECHNICAL SIDE

One of the major advantages of biofuels is the maturity of compatible engines. Vessels typically require no modification to use biofuels, making them a “drop in” replacement for conventional marine fuels. This sets biofuels apart from the majority of alternative fuels – including hydrogen, ammonia and LNG – which require specific engines or fuel storage and supply systems.

Characteristically speaking, biofuels are similar to standard fuel oil. This means minimal investment would be needed to meet evolving regulations and ensure crew safety onboard.

WHAT REGULATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR BIOFUELS?

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is now developing guidelines for the life cycle GHG analysis of marine fuels, which is expected to be the cornerstone when considering the emissions reduction potential of marine biofuels.

Specific biofuel regulations may still be in the early stages, but ship operators are adapting their fleets now to comply with IMO emissions regulations. Biofuels may be part of the solution to reducing emissions and meeting compliance requirements. With a sustainable production pathway, biofuels promise significant carbon emissions reductions compared to standard fossil fuels.

Biofuels also appear to be in line with NOx (nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide) emission limits. The challenge, however, comes in proving compliance. This may require onboard emission testing or engine and fuel-specific NOx emissions validation testing. However, the IMO regulations now consider blends of 30% biofuel or less in the same way as traditional oil-based bunkers.

BIOFUEL READY

To help the industry prepare for the use of biofuels or biofuel blends, Bureau Veritas created its BIOFUEL READY notation. It provides a set of requirements and comprehensive guidelines for the necessary documentation and testing. Suitable for new and existing ships, BIOFUEL READY is one example of how we leverage our transversal expertise to support the maritime industry’s decarbonization journey and safely progress innovative solutions. This includes assessing NOx emissions, which remain at the forefront of current regulatory compliance.

Photo credit: Bureau Veritas
Published: 29 September, 2023

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