Independent energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy on Friday (6 September) forecasted three essential factors determining the direction of the oil price next year.
It highlighted a balanced oil market in 2020 will be dependent on three pillars:
“Markets can balance with an extension of OPEC cuts through 2020, as we believe the IMO 2020 regulations will create more demand for crude oil,” said Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy.
“Moreover, the global economy needs to avoid a sharp slowdown and oil demand recover to more normal growth rates of between 1 million and 1.2 million barrels per day.
“If the stars fail to align, however, OPEC may need to discuss much deeper cuts to support the market.”
According to Rystad Energy, the latest Oil Market Balances Report finds the market being able to come into balance in 2020, even at current oil prices, as latest revisions suggest a call-on-OPEC crude oil reaching 30.1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, compared to 29.5 million barrels per day in last month’s report.
However, a balanced market next year also implies that the global economy does not enter a technical recession and that demand recovers to around 1.2 million bpd growth.
OPEC will need to maintain current production levels, with extended cuts through at least 2020, while the introduction of stricter shipping fuel regulations – the so-called IMO 2020 effect – will cause a net positive effect on crude demand growth next year of about 1.0 million bpd in order to balance the global gasoil market.
“Without the expected additional crude runs in 2020, on top of the normal growth in refinery runs to keep up with overall products demand without IMO 2020, prices will be even lower next year – unless OPEC cuts its production to around 29 million bpd in 2020,” states Tonhaugen.
As such, Rystad Energy forecasts that crude oil and lease condensate production growth outside of OPEC and Russia will reach 2 million bpd in 2020, down 0.2 million bpd from the previous estimate.
The US oil supply forecast for December 2020 has been revised down by 0.5 million bpd to 14.0 million bpd, which represents a yearly addition of 1.15 million bpd, according to the independent energy research firm.
Photo credit: Rystad Energy
Published: 10 September, 2019
Schedules to start bunker operations from late December with exclusive barges and reliable cargo sourcing.
Additive package provides solution to limit uncertainties in VLSFO blends; positively influencing tests in CIMACs PAS guideline.
‘Xihe is deeply grateful to the lenders and to the Court for this opportunity,’ said the company in an official press release on Wednesday.
Total bunker sales at Panama was 302,330 metric tonnes (mt) in June, compared to sales of 480,464 mt during the similar period in 2019.
Megah Port Management Sdn. Bhd. will be the operating company to carry out Port Management Services at Labuan Port from 1 April 2020.
Sales of low sulphur MGO increased 99.4% to 229,500 mt during comparative period, show MPA data.
The top three positive movers in the 2020 bunker supplier list are Hong Lam Fuels Pte Ltd (+13); Chevron Singapore Pte Ltd (+12); and SK Energy International (+8), according to MPA list.
‘We will operate in the Singapore bunkering market from the Tokyo, with support from local staff at Sumitomo Corporation Singapore,’ source tells Manifold Times.
Changes include abolishing advance declaration of bunkers as dangerous cargo, reducing pilotage fees on vessels receiving bunkers, and a ‘whitelist’ system for bunker tankers.
Claim relates to deliveries of MGO to the vessels Pacific Diligence, Pacific Valkyrie, Pacific Defiance, Crest Alpha 1, and Pacific Warlock between March 2020 to April 2020.
3,490 mt of LSFO from Itochu Enex was lifted at Universal Terminal; the same bunker stem was bought by Global Marine Logistics and delivered by bunker tanker Juma to receiving vessel Kirana Nawa.
Representatives of Veritas Petroleum Services, Maersk, INTERTANKO, ElbOil Singapore, and SDE International provide insight from their respective fields of expertise on what lies ahead.
