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LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply, says SFOC

SFOC report finds a massive oversupply of LNG shipping capacity is being planned well into the future – an increase of 16 million cubic metres of planned shipping capacity since last year’s report.

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A new analysis released by Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) on Monday (14 October) found a massive oversupply of LNG shipping capacity is being planned well into the future – an increase of 16 million cubic metres of planned shipping capacity since last year’s report.

The analysis Still Adrift Updated assessment of the global energy transition’s impact on the LNG shipbuilding industry, by Climate Analytics and commissioned by SFOC, updates a report released last year, looking at the required – and planned – shipping capacity for future LNG trade under the International Energy Agency scenarios. 

The study was undertaken in light of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) consistent, downward, revision of global fossil gas demand projections under its most conservative scenario, one that reflects current policies and private sector momentum with no increase in climate ambition, and which finds that global gas demand peaks in 2030, at the latest.

“No new LNG carriers are needed in any scenario, including both the IEA’s 2023 Net Zero Emissions (NZE) pathway, which aligns with the globally agreed goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C, and the more conservative Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), that reflects policies already adopted by governments,” said report lead author, Climate Analytics energy analyst Thomas Houlie.

“While the International Energy Agency shows no role for fossil gas in the global energy transition, the LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be heading in the opposite direction, which could be to the detriment of everybody involved in the industry.” 

In 2025 and 2026, 180 carriers with a total of 32 million cubic metres (m3) of shipping capacity are projected to be delivered – 28% of the capacity in operation in 2023. While there were 64 orders for LNG carriers in 2023, the first five months of 2024 alone saw 55 new orders placed and since the report’s cutoff date of May 2024, another 27 have been added. 

Even under the IEA’s more conservative, STEPS scenario, aligned with policies already adopted by governments, an oversupply of LNG shipping capacity is still evident. This excess capacity exists even now and is projected to grow. By 2030, the surplus  is expected to grow to 40% beyond what is required of the industry’s operating capacity – the equivalent of 275 modern carriers.

“As the energy transition accelerates at an unprecedented pace, investing in fossil fuel transport capacity represents not just a risky and shortsighted gamble for investors, shipbuilders, and shipowners, but an imminent threat to their financial stability,” said Dongjae Oh, Head of Gas at SFOC. 

“The LNG shipping industry is approaching a cliff edge of overcapacity, with the widespread looming issue of stranded assets. Every new carrier order pushes the industry closer to unsustainable oversupply. Stakeholders must act now to halt new orders or face severe economic consequences as the global shift away from fossil fuels renders these assets obsolete far sooner than anticipated,” Oh added.

The LNG carrier shipbuilding industry has experienced an intense influx of orders for ships to be delivered later in the decade. The glut of new LNG carriers coming online in the near future will push the market into oversupply, risking stranded assets and locking in capital for purposes at odds with the global energy transition. 

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply, says SFOC

Figure 1: Projected needed liquefied natural gas trade in the 2023 WEO scenarios, compared with the shipping capacity available.

Two countries will build the overwhelming majority of LNG carriers to come online: China, and South Korea, with the latter taking up the vast majority of the industry. 

SFOC’s Oh noted:  “While the construction of fossil-fuel related vessels has been a recent, and worrying, trend, South Korea is well-positioned to pivot towards renewable energy shipbuilding. With its existing expertise and robust supply chain, the country could capitalise on growing demand in the clean energy sector by manufacturing vessels like wind turbine installation ships. This transition aligns with global sustainability trends and offers a promising direction for the Korean shipbuilding industry to decouple from the declining fossil fuel industry.”

 

Photo credit: Chris Pagan on Unsplash
Published: 15 October, 2024

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Alternative Fuels

Shipfinex: The green fleet transition has a financing problem

Capt. Vikas Pandey, Founder & CEO, Shipfinex argues green shipping progress is uneven: major carriers can finance alternative-fuel vessels, while smaller owners face capital constraints.

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Shipfinex: The green fleet transition has a financing problem

By Capt. Vikas Pandey, Founder & CEO, Shipfinex

The numbers on alternative-fuel orders look encouraging. Seventy-two percent of newbuild capacity ordered in the first ten months of 2025 was for alternative-fuel vessels, with LNG dual-fuel accounting for 60% of that figure. More than 1,369 LNG dual-fuel vessels are now in operation or on order globally. By most measures, the transition appears to be happening.

Look at who is actually placing those orders. MSC. Hapag-Lloyd. CMA CGM. Carriers with balance sheets large enough to absorb the cost premium of alternative-fuel newbuilds and relationships with Chinese leasing companies that extend leverage ratios unavailable to most of the industry. The Strait of Hormuz disruption this March accelerated that activity further: LNG tanker charter rates spiked above $200,000 per day and carriers with deep pockets moved to lock in fuel flexibility. Meanwhile, for vessels under 6,000 TEU, orders for conventionally fuelled tonnage rose to 28% of capacity ordered in 2025, up from 19% the year before. That is not a story of broad commitment to green fuels. It is a story about who has access to capital.

An alternative-fuel newbuild costs materially more than a conventional equivalent. Methanol-ready designs, ammonia-ready structures, LNG dual-fuel systems, each carries a cost premium above the base vessel price. For an independent shipowner financing through a traditional bank, that gap is increasingly difficult to bridge. Top-40 bank lending to shipping fell from $454.9 billion in 2011 to $284.3 billion by end-2023. The Chinese leasing companies that absorbed part of that contraction are structurally oriented toward Chinese-built vessels under long-term contracts with tier-one counterparties. Independent bulk owners, mid-tier tanker operators, feeder container companies: they are working with a materially shrunken pool of willing lenders at precisely the moment they are being asked to upgrade their fleets.

This bifurcation deserves more attention from the marine fuels industry than it currently receives. Bunkering infrastructure investment follows demand signals. Alternative-fuel bunkering at secondary ports, methanol at regional hubs, LNG outside the major transhipment centres, requires a broader fleet base of alternative-fuel vessels to justify the investment. If green fuel adoption stays concentrated among a handful of majors rather than spreading across the independent owner fleet, the economics of scaling bunkering supply infrastructure outside the primary corridors remain thin.

Capital market structure and marine fuel adoption are connected, and pretending otherwise slows both. Digital instruments representing economic exposure to vessel-owning Special Purpose Vehicles, structured within regulated frameworks like VARA in Dubai, can extend the base of capital available to shipowners below the tier-one threshold. That capital base does not replace bank lending. It reaches operators that bank lending currently does not.

The Hormuz disruption reminded the industry that fuel supply chains carry geopolitical risk. The financing gap raises a quieter but equally structural point: the demand side of the green fuel equation depends on shipowners being able to afford the vessels that create that demand. Alternative-fuel bunkering infrastructure will scale when the fleet ordering those vessels does. Right now, that fleet is smaller than the order book numbers suggest.

About the Author

Vikas Pandey is a Master Mariner with decades at sea across various vessel categories. He is Founder and CEO of Shipfinex FZCO, a maritime asset tokenization platform operating under VARA In-Principle Approval (IPA/26/01/002) in Dubai and registered as a Virtual Asset Service Provider in Poland.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or virtual asset. Maritime Asset Tokens are virtual assets; values may decline materially below purchase price. VARA In-Principle Approval does not constitute a final licence.

Linkedin: https://ae.linkedin.com/in/capt-vikaspandey
Website: https://www.shipfinex.com/

 

Photo credit: Shipfinex
Published: 4 June, 2026

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Newbuilding

LR launches Newbuild Advisory service, guide on major North Asian shipyards

Advisory service is designed to support shipowners, operators, yards, and investors throughout the design and build process while updated guide gives detailed insight into shipyards across China, Korea and Japan.

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Classification society Lloyd’s Register (LR) on Tuesday (2 June) said it is growing its role in the newbuilding market with the launch of its Newbuild Advisory Service and updated New Construction Guide.

With global demand continuing to reshape shipyard orderbooks, owners are balancing a growing number of considerations during the planning phase of newbuilding projects, including fuel readiness, delivery timelines, technical capability and long-term operational requirements.

Launching at Posidonia 2026, the Newbuild Advisory service is designed to support shipowners, operators, yards, and investors throughout the design and build process, helping them to manage risk, optimise performance, and make informed decisions from concept through to delivery.

Drawing on experience from more than 500 new building projects, the Newbuild Advisory Service helps clients make better design and technology choices upfront, giving greater control over cost and schedule as projects progress, and reducing the risk of misalignment between owner expectations and yard execution.

It also adds a layer of independent oversight, with a focus on build quality, efficiency and long-term asset performance.

Sujith Tooneri, Global Head – Newbuild Advisory Services, LR, said: “Ship newbuilding for the future starts with making the right decisions today, and these decisions will shape the next generation of maritime operations.

“LR’s Newbuild Advisory Services provide expert guidance from concept to delivery, helping you design, specify and implement solutions that meet tomorrow’s standards. From concept, regulatory impact and risk to GHG reduction strategies and integrating innovative technologies, we ensure your fleet is smarter, safer and future ready.”

Alongside the Newbuild Advisory Service launch, LR is introducing an updated New Construction Guide, providing detailed insight into major North Asian shipyards, on yard capabilities, experience and regional strengths in a single, easy-to-use tool.

The guide brings together independent shipyard intelligence across China, Korea and Japan to help owners, operators and project teams compare options more confidently before entering newbuild discussions.

The guide reflects LR’s extensive knowledge of key shipyards, regional shipbuilding activity and newbuilding considerations, combined with its technical expertise across classification, plan approval, technical advisory and digital support services.

Sherry Li, Global Head of New Construction, LR, said: “Selecting the right shipyard has become more complex as owners balance delivery schedules, fuel transition strategies and changing market requirements. Clients need reliable insight early in the process to help them make confident decisions and reduce uncertainty around newbuilding projects.

“Our updated New Construction Guide reflects LR’s depth of knowledge across key shipbuilding regions, particularly North Asia. It is designed to give clients practical support as they evaluate shipyard capability, plan future fleet investment and navigate increasingly complex construction requirements.”

The Newbuild Advisory Service and updated New Construction Guide will be featured at the LR stand during Posidonia, as part of broader engagement with owners, yards and charterers on the next phase of newbuild activity.

 

Photo credit: Chris Pagan on Unsplash
Published: 3 June, 2026

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Methanol

Maritime Blue calls for proposals on methanol bunker barge design

Maritime Blue, in collaboration with the Port of Seattle, Port of Tacoma, Northwest Seaport Alliance, and ABS, is seeking a naval architecture firm to develop design schematics for a methanol bunker barge.

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Maritime Blue, in collaboration with the Port of Seattle, Port of Tacoma, Northwest Seaport Alliance, and American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), is seeking a qualified naval architecture firm to develop design schematics for a methanol bunker barge.

A Request for Proposals (RFP), issued on 11 May, invited companies to submit a proposal for the barge, which will be used as the supply ship in a ship-to-ship methanol bunkering exercise during a high level risk assessment workshop planned for September 2026. 

The design is intended for a desktop exercise to identify operational requirements and safety gaps for green methanol bunkering in the Seattle-Tacoma Gateway.

The bunker barge is expected to have a methanol capacity of approximately 30,000 bbls but contractors may propose alternative capacities with justification. 

The receiving ship for the workshop has not been selected yet, but is anticipated to be a cargo, container, cruise, or ro-ro ship.

Maritime Blue said the submission deadline for the proposals is 1 June at 3pm PDT.

 

Photo credit: Venti Views on Unsplash
Published: 29 May, 2026

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