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ITF/OECD: On Course Towards Carbon-neutral Shipping?

CO2 emissions from international shipping could increase between 50% to 250% by 2050 of no action is taken.

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The International Transport Forum in early November released an article informing of the shipping industry’s rising carbon emissions:

The first-ever CO2 emissions targets for international shipping were adopted by the International Maritime Organisation in April 2018. Which measures will make the strategy work?

The issue

If no drastic action is taken, CO2 emissions from international shipping could increase between 50% and 250% by 2050

Maritime transport emitted 938 tonnes of CO2 in 2012
This represented 2.6% of total global carbon emissions. By 2050, shipping CO2emissions are projected to increase between 50% and 250% if no drastic action is taken. In order to reverse this trajectory, the 174 member states of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) adopted an “Initial IMO Strategy on reduction of Greenhouse Gas emissions from ships” (or “Initial Strategy” for short) in April 2018. The Initial Strategy’s declared aim is to phase out greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping “as soon as possible in this century”. More specifically, the strategy also sets specific emission targets for the shipping sector.

Shipping’s first-ever absolute emissions target awaits implementation
The IMO’s Initial Strategy sets the ambition to reduce the total annual GHG emissions of international shipping “by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008”. In addition to this absolute emission target, the Initial Strategy includes carbon intensity targets for international shipping. These impose a reduction of carbon intensity “by at least 40% by 2030”. They also commit signatories to “pursuing efforts towards 70% [reduction] by 2050” compared to 2008. The Initial Strategy includes a list of “candidate measures” that, if implemented, could contribute to achieving the targets. Debate now centres on which set of measures will make the strategy successful.

Key insights

Using only currently known technologies can already eliminate annual shipping CO2 emissions equal to those of 185 coal-fired power plants

Lower shipping emissions will come from new technologies, improved operations and alternative fuels
Improving the energy efficiency of ships through technological measures can yield part of the needed emission reductions. Ready and available options here include hull design improvements (for instance lighter materials and more slender designs), air lubrication and bulbous bows to reduce friction, or waste heat recovery as a source of energy. Operational measures such as reduced speeds (“slow steaming”), smoother ship-port interfaces and bigger ships that carry more freight in relation to energy used could achieve further emission reductions. Finally, switching from oil to alternative fuels and renewable energy can cut shipping’s carbon emissions.

Alternative fuels can deliver the biggest cut in shipping CO2
Alternative fuels and renewable energy can deliver much of the required reductions. Advanced biofuels are already available, albeit in limited quantities. Gradually, they should be complemented by other natural or synthetic fuels such as hydrogen, methanol and ammonia. Wind assistance for ships could reap additional reductions. The first electric ships already provide transport on short-distance routes.

Maximum deployment of currently known technologies could decarbonise maritime shipping almost completely by 2035

Only a combination of operational measures, technical innovation and alternative fuels will deliver sufficient CO2 reductions
The quickest emissions reductions could be achieved by implementing known technologies and adopting new operational standards. The largest reductions could come from switching to alternative fuels, but the transition to new sources of energy will take time. Any pathway to carbon-neutral shipping will thus need to make use of all three levers at the disposal of policy makers, ship owners and naval architects.

The low price of fossil ship fuel is a major obstacle for decarbonisation
The current price of ship fuel does not reflect the costs created by climate change. As a result, some of the alternative propulsion technologies that emit less carbon dioxide are more expensive than oil-based fuel. Building zero-carbon vessels is also more expensive than the construction of conventional vessels. Retrofitting traditional ships requires capital that ship-owners often will not invest. However, costs will come down as larger numbers of zero- and low-carbon ships are ordered. Regulation or financial incentives can make them technologically feasible and their adoption commercially viable.

To Dos

Regulators can support the uptake of low- and zero-carbon ships through more stringent energy efficiency targets, speed limits and a low-carbon fuel standard

Strengthen mechanisms that will increase the use of alternative ship fuels 
Incentives for promoting the uptake of alternative fuels deserve more attention. For the moment, discussions at the IMO focus mostly on measures to make ship design and the operation of vessels more energy efficient. Working out effective mechanisms to accelerate the transition to alternative ship fuels should be pursued in parallel. Such mechanisms could include a low-carbon fuel standard for the maritime sector to decrease the carbon intensity of ship fuel gradually, similar to practices in road transport.

Develop carbon pricing schemes for shipping 
Financial incentives will reduce the current price gap between conventional ship fuel and more sustainable options. These could include a carbon price for international shipping to use market mechanisms for optimal resource allocation. Receipts from a carbon-pricing scheme could fund further research and development in green shipping or ship retrofitting programmes. They could also help to mitigate adverse impacts of decarbonisation on trade in least developed countries and small island developing states.

Source: International Transport Forum
Photo credit: International Transport Forum
Published: 19 November, 2018

 

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Methanol

GENA Solutions: Total renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline increases from 61.8 to 62.2 Mt by 2032

Information shared by MI – the Global Methanol Alliance meant to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.

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MI – the Global Methanol Alliance recently shared with Manifold Times the renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline August 2026 release produced by GENA Solutions Oy.

Information from the release is meant to provide the bunkering publication’s readers with insight on renewable methanol availability, and to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.

Key takeaways from GENA’s August 2026 Methanol release are as follows:

  • As of the end of August 2026, GENA tracks 286 renewable and low carbon methanol projects, representing 62.2 Mt of capacity by 2032. This includes 25.1 Mt of e-methanol, 25.9 Mt of biomethanol, and 11.2 Mt of low carbon methanol capacity.
  • Two new projects were added to Project Navigator last month, while one frozen project was excluded. The project pipeline increased by 0.4 Mt month on month.
  • Four new offtake agreements were registered during August, including two biomethanol and two e-methanol agreements.
  • About 8% of the cumulative renewable methanol project pipeline capacity has reached FID so far, with another 11% at the FEED stage.
  • Considering the current uncertainty around regulatory developments and demand growth, GENA projects that renewable methanol capacity could reach 6 Mt to 12 Mt by 2031.

Note: The full article can be viewed here.

Renewable methanol project pipeline 4 Renewable methanol by feedstock 8 Renewable methanol by region 7 Project pipeline by status Methanol capacity scenarios

 

Photo credit: GENA Solutions
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Business

Singapore: MPA urges maritime firms to prepare for potential haze with plan

MPA encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

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The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Monday (31 August) issued Port Marine Circular No. 9 of 2026 on steps for maritime companies to take for potential haze affecting Singapore:

BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR HAZE

This circular supersedes Port Marine Circular No. 09 of 2023.

With reference to the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) joint media release issued on 9 August 2026, hotspots were observed in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, with prevailing winds potentially bringing smoke haze towards Singapore. The dry conditions may further increase the likelihood of haze affecting Singapore. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

MPA advises all maritime companies to monitor the PSI level through the media and the NEA’s website (www.haze.gov.sg), keep at least a one-week supply of N95 masks for workers especially those who work outdoors, and observe the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) Haze guidelines and advisory for work which can be found on their website (www.mom.gov.sg/haze). The latter include guidelines to ensure that stocks of N95 masks are periodically inspected, remain serviceable, and not expired.

The visibility in the Singapore Strait and port waters could be significantly reduced in the event of haze. During periods of restricted visibility, shipmasters are advised to keep a proper lookout and navigate with caution. They are also advised to comply with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and in particular Rule No. 19, Rule No. 20 and Rule 35 concerning conduct of vessels in restricted visibility, exhibition of navigation lights and sound signals in restricted visibility, respectively.

In the interest of safety of navigation and life at sea, the Port Master may restrict the movement of harbour craft and pleasure craft in the port waters during reduced visibility conditions.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 August, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of IMO NZF in its current form to its outright rejection, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term bunker fuel and technology strategies.

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DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios, said classification society DNV on Thursday (27 August). 

According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said: “Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”

Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit. A case study of a hydrodynamic measures retrofit on a 5,000 TEU container vessel showed potential annual fuel savings of 16%, with a payback time of around one to four years depending on future fuel prices. Retrofits can add similar value across many ship types and with sufficient planning can typically be completed during a standard class-renewal dry docking.

The development of the marine low-GHG fuel market remains a key challenge. While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.

Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share. However, the cost of reducing emissions varies significantly between fuel pathways, with abatement costs ranging from about 180 to 1,290 USD per tonne of CO₂ avoided, highlighting the importance of regulation and market incentives in enabling low-GHG fuel markets to develop.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, said: “Scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and consequently, GHG emissions. By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve. Strategies that each owner chooses will also be dependent on their fleet type and operating context.”

Key findings from the report: 

  • Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
  • With global regulatory incentives in place, the world-fleet could consume 25% less energy by 2050 than under a scenario limited to regional regulations.
  • Energy efficiency can pay off regardless of regulatory outcome – 5,000 TEU container ship case study shows 16% annual fuel savings from hydrodynamic measures retrofit.
  • Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and the availability of these fuels in a competitive global market.
  • Current project pipelines indicate that a maximum of 270 Mtoe of supply could be available by 2030, though actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share.
  • Testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition. Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Note: DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be found here. 

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 28 August, 2026

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