Bunker Fuel

Integr8: What is driving increased bunker prices and how quickly can they fall?

Integr8 breaks down the fundamentals that are behind the price hikes, specifically, what is happening on supply side in Saudi oil production and what is behind demand increase coming from China.

Published

1 year ago

October 4, 2023

Admin

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]

28 September 2023

VLSFO prices have been on another rise

A month ago, we wrote about high bunker prices which were based on two key factors: Tightness in most product markets; And additional oil production cutbacks by Saudi Arabia. Now, bunker prices are even higher.

Brent has moved above $90/bbl, with Singapore VLSFO above $660/mt and close to peak levels seen at the start of this year. Rotterdam VLSFO has been trading at around $615-635/mt, its highest so far this year. More recently Rotterdam prices have eased slightly but they are still above this year’s previous peaks, and Singapore prices remain at high levels.

Much tighter fundamentals are behind the price hike

On a very short-term basis, the market can see dramatic price shifts, but it is normally the fundamentals that drive price direction over a period of weeks and months. We are now in a strong fundamental period, with year-on-year growth in global oil demand at 3 million b/d in Q2 this year and projected at 2 million b/d in Q3 and Q4. The key factor here is growth is almost entirely centred on China.

At the same time there are huge constraints in oil supply, with the additional 1 million b/d voluntary cut made by Saudi Arabia, starting in July. In fact, part of the recent price hike is that Saudi Arabia has recently committed to extending these additional cuts through to the end of this year.

Additionally, the September 21st announcement by Russia which banned all diesel and gasoline exports to support their own domestic market and, we can see clear reasons why oil prices have taken another leap higher over the past month.

On the supply side, it is what’s happening to Saudi oil production

Saudi Arabia’s stated policy is aimed at supporting a market with less volatility, and more sustainable and predictable outcomes. As part of this strategy, the country had reduced crude output by 0.5 million b/d in line with the overall OPEC+ agreement, and then made a further 1 million b/d cut over the second half of this year. The net result is that Saudi crude production has fallen sharply over the past few months and is currently some 1.5 million b/d lower than average 2022 levels (8.9 million b/d in August vs an average of 10.4 million b/d last year). This lower level of output is expected to be maintained through to the end of the year.

Looking at alternative crude supplies, US production crude production is near record highs and higher oil prices has incentivised even greater investment in US shale oil. However, the problem here is Saudi cuts are instantaneous and any rise in US shale production from new investment takes months. Hence, current signals are for a potential tightness in supply over the rest of this year, before an expected 1 million b/d hike in January as Saudi crude output climbs back towards 10 million b/d.

On the demand side it is all about China, China, China

Fundamentals on the demand side also point to higher oil prices. As mentioned, increases in global oil demand are running at 2-3 million b/d (year-on-year), and these are big numbers. However, they are almost entirely based on what is happening in China; product demand developments elsewhere are minimal, and even falling in Europe and projected to start falling in the US next year.

The reason for current very high year-on-year growth rates in China is that the country was still largely in lockdown through 2022, and the easing has only taken place this year. This is much later than almost all other countries worldwide, where the post-pandemic ‘boom’ took place in 2022, not 2023. Therefore, it is more-or-less China alone that is driving up oil demand this year.

Clearly there is a risk of weaker demand than forecast in many countries but if we are looking for a big price impact from the demand side, then it is more likely to be stories about China that are going to drive prices up or down.

Market tightness in Q3 & Q4, but potentially changing going into 2024

Bringing together these more extreme developments in supply and demand, the graph below illustrates global fundamentals on a quarterly basis. The key for us is that global oil supply exceeded demand through most of 2022 and in the first quarter of this year, resulting in an ongoing global stock build. However, we have just been through a turning point, where demand is exceeding supply in Q3 this year and this is expected to be repeated in Q4, leading to stock draws.

It is not until the start of next year that we see a reversal and another turning point is envisaged. It is at this stage; Saudi Arabia says it will lift its voluntary 1 million b/d cutbacks. At the same time year-on-year growth in oil demand is expected to ease back to around 1 million b/d. So, at the start of next year oil supply is projected to exceed demand once again, reverting us back to a world of stock builds.

Summarising by looking at the global stock build/stock draw positions, we can see the exceptional times we are currently in; Having moved to a position of stock draws in Q3 and projected for Q4 this year. In addition, the tightness in global stocks lies with oil products, and not crude oil. This has been driven by high product demand and exacerbated by several unplanned refinery outages this year.

Going into next year the position looks like reversing again, going back to a fundamental global stock build.

What’s next?

Given the fundamentals, these developments explain the wave of price rises we have seen in September.

Looking ahead over the rest of this year and into 2024, on the demand side China is the main story. Of course, Chinese demand could be higher than currently projected, in which case Brent crude could easily pass the $100/bbl ‘barrier’, along with Singapore VLSFO going above $700/mt.

However, the chatter at the moment is about weakness in the Chinese economy. If this translates to lower oil demand, then it will be a sign ‘to sell’, and prices for us all would come down. This is clearly the story to watch on the demand side.

The supply side seems more predictable - When Saudi Arabia announces the additional cutbacks will be eased (or there are strong indications of this), then oil prices are likely to fall. A reversal of the Russian ban on diesel and gasoline exports could also have a bearish impact.

Timing is everything in all these developments, and the extent of any fall in prices may still be dependent on how tight oil product stocks are at the time and what stocks look like doing in the near term.

Being precise on price movements is difficult, but we know prices never wait for the fundamentals to be borne out; Markets react on news, changes, and psychology. If the fundamentals do play out as shown in this report, then prices are more likely to fall before the end of the year, in anticipation of weaker fundamentals going into 2024. Let’s see what happens…..

Photo credit and source: Integr8
Published: 4 October, 2023

Related Topics:Bunker fuel - VLSFO Others - Research

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China launched its first training platform to simulate methanol bunkering operations at Putuo District, Zhoushan on 15 January.

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Through the real-life simulation, the platform helps ship operators improve their safety management and emergency response capabilities, improving the development of green shipping technologies.

The platform was jointly developed by Zhejiang Ocean-U New Energy System Engineering and Zhejiang Ocean University.

At the press conference , Zhejiang Ocean-U New Energy System Engineering successfully signed its first purchase agreement with Seacon Ships Management (Zhejiang), making Seacon the first customer to purchase the platform service.

Wang Guofeng, chairman of Seacon, said that the platform has great potential in improving crew operating efficiency and safety, and he looks forward to deeper cooperation with Zhejiang Ocean-U New Energy System Engineering in the future.

Professor Lu Jinshu, Vice President of Zhejiang Ocean University, said they will continuously improve the platform to contribute more in the field of green shipping solutions to the industry.

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Klaipėda Port launches Lithuania’s first hydrogen-powered vessel

Tanker’s power system, which will consist of two electric motors powered by 2,000 kWh batteries and a hydrogen fuel cell system, will enable it to operate for up to 36 hours without additional power charging.

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Klaipėda Port launches Lithuania’s first hydrogen-powered vessel

Klaipėda State Seaport Authority on Wednesday (22 January) said the first ever green hydrogen and electricity-powered ship in Lithuania has been moved from shipyard into water.

Leaving no trace on the environment, it will clean other vessels entering the port, accepting waste from them.

According to the current rules, vessels are obliged to hand over the waste they produce when they arrive and before they leave Klaipėda Port. The Seaport Authority was entrusted with the collection of the waste, and the company decided to use modern and environmentally friendly equipment to further improve the quality of the ship waste collection service.

The tanker’s main function is to collect storm water, sewage, sludge and garbage, as well as to ensure efficient waste management. The ship will be equipped with special tanks and a modern rainwater treatment plant that will allow the treated water to be transferred to the city’s sewage treatment plants. The tanker will be ready to work around the clock and collect up to 400 cubic metres of liquid waste.

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This ship building project with a total value of EUR 12 million (USD 12.5 million) has been commissioned by the Port Authority and is being built by West Baltic Shipyard together with Baltic Workboats under a joint operating agreement.

“We have not only launched a tanker, but also a new approach to port operations – cleaner, smarter and more environmentally friendly. This first ever hydrogen and electricity-powered ship is not only an innovative technological solution, but also an important step in strengthening Lithuania’s image as a modern maritime nation,” said Algis Latakas, Director General of Klaipėda State Seaport Authority.

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Once the tanker is moved into the water, the engine room equipment will be installed, the interior of the wheelhouse will be redecorated, the electrical wiring and the main electrical engines will be installed, the hydrogen system will be installed and other work necessary for the operation of the ship will be carried out.

Photo credit: Klaipėda State Seaport Authority
Published: 23 January, 2025

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Dublin Bay Cruises opts for HVO bunker fuel for passenger ship “St. Bridget”

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Dublin Bay Cruises opts for HVO bunker fuel to power passenger ship “St. Bridget”

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In adapting the Circular Economy Policy they have remanufactured the engines of St Bridget, making her more fuel-efficient, and dramatically reducing emissions. By doing this, instead of building from scratch, they not only reduced waste but also took a major step toward a greener future.

This change will reduce emissions by up to 90%, which will exceed the climate targets set by the EU and Ireland. This thoughtful investment underscores Dublin Bay Cruises’ commitment to environmental stewardship and sustainable tourism.

“Recently Dublin Bay Cruises faced a crucial decision—whether to invest in a larger vessel for increased passenger numbers or to reconsider our approach and focus on sustainability,” said founder and Managing Director Eugene Garrihy.

“After careful thought, we chose the latter. Our choice reflects not just a business decision, but a responsibility to the environment and the future of our coastal communities. We need to slow things down.”

Garrihy added: “We are deeply aware of the privilege and responsibility we have to operate in UNESCOs Dublin Bay Biosphere, one of the most beautiful marine environments in the world. This initiative is a reflection of our commitment to preserving Dublin Bay for future generations while still providing our customers with an unforgettable and sustainable marine experience,”

The transition includes substantial investments in reducing carbon emissions, improving energy efficiency onboard with solar panels, and incorporating green technologies into its daily operations. Dublin Bay Cruises has also partnered with Failte Ireland’s “Climate Action Programme” and with local marine conservation groups to support biodiversity and the protection of the rich marine life found in Dublin Bay.

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