Sometimes first-movers can gain an advantage by offering products that others can’t with handsome margins to show for.
That is what’s happened in certain biofuel bunker markets. Bunker suppliers with chemical bunker tankers seem to be reaping the rewards of their investments with sizeable bunker delivery price premiums.
In the past week we have seen delivered 100% used cooking oil methyl ester biofuel (UCOME B100) indicated way above our estimated UCOME cargo price in Singapore. If bunker suppliers fix stems at these price levels, it could help their payback times on chemical tanker investments.
To break down our estimate, PRIMA Markets has assessed UCOME FOB China – a major producer - at $1,000-1,015/mt in the past week. The freight rate for a 40,000 mt medium-range tanker sailing from China to Singapore has been $15/mt. Delivered B100, meanwhile, has been indicated at $1,290-1,300/mt, which leaves $260-285/mt to cover logistics costs like storage, handling and delivery to a receiving ship with a chemical bunker tanker.
That looks like a chunky bunker margin compared to estimates from the ARA, where we have recently seen delivered UCOME B100 fixed at both $5/mt premium and $5/mt discount to Argus UCOME barges, a key benchmark for UCOME pricing in the region. B100 bunker prices are sharper in the ARA not just because of a more established pricing index, but because a greater number of suppliers can offer B100. They are not bound by the same biofuel delivery vessel restrictions as in other bunker locations.
So-called IMO Type II chemical tankers - which can also typically supply methanol - are required to be allowed to supply bio-bunker blends above 25% in ports outside of the ARA, where stems are delivered by river barges exempt from the IMO rules. A growing number of bunker suppliers have invested in them, but only a few of these vessels have entered into operation yet.
Vitol Bunkers, Global Energy, Fratelli Cosulich, BMT, Stena Oil and Peninsula are among the few suppliers with chemical bunker tankers in their fleets that can deliver B100 stems in non-ARA ports today. Singaporean Consort Bunkers has placed orders for up to 20 of these chemical tankers, while Fratelli Cosulich has another two on order and Peninsula-affiliated Hercules Tanker Management has six with an option for another four.
TFG Marine’s Singapore entity will take four of Consort Bunker’s vessels and one of Fratelli Cosulich’s vessels on time charters. TotalEnergies and Mitsui & Co. have both supplied B100 in Singapore with Global Energy’s Maple chemical tanker.
Because of early entries into this burgeoning B100 market, these suppliers are among the only 1-3 suppliers in a given bunker location. Biofuel bunker demand to date has mostly revolved around Scope 1 and 3 emission reductions, with container liners and car carrier companies as typical uptakers.
But with FuelEU Maritime less than a month away, more companies will be enquiring about stems with higher biofuel contents. They will run some vessels on B100 and average out their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity reductions across a pool of vessels, or sell their compliance surpluses in one of the many over-the-counter markets that have popped up.
That leaves a golden pricing window for forward-thinking bunker suppliers as biofuel goes from niche to necessity for more EU-trading vessels.
In other alternative news this week, a string of headlines showed that LNG is still very much in vogue.
LNG bunker supplier Titan has expanded a deal to supply mass-balanced liquified biomethane (LBM) to Norwegian shipping firm United European Car Carriers' (UECC) dual-fuel LNG vessels. Since July, over 95% of the fuel delivered to UECC’s vessels by Titan has been mass-balanced LBM.
More and more fleet renewal programmes boast lower-carbon vessels. A.P. Moller-Maersk has had bragging rights for its methanol-capable container ship orders this decade, before recently pivoting to LNG orders and getting some flack from environmental organisations. This week it put in orders for 20 container ships with LNG-capable engines, and with that it concluded its fleet renewal order target this time around.
And Canadian bunker supplier Seaspan Energy has delivered its first ship-to-ship LNG bunker stem to a container ship in California’s Port of Long Beach.
By Erik Hoffmann
Photo credit: Global Energy Trading
Source: ENGINE
Published: 9 December, 2024