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Oil glut set to halve in May and shrink to 6 million bpd in June, but storage can’t breathe

‘We still believe in an oil price recovery, possibly as early as June, and see a risk for a tight market in 2022 with prices much higher than pre-crisis levels,’ says Rystad Energy.
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Rystad Energy Oil Glut Forecast

Independent energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy on Thursday (30 April) published its forecast for the aftermath and recovery of the global oil market post Covid-19 pandemic for the short term and long term: 

Some good news: The global imbalance between oil supply and demand, which has built to 26.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is set to halve to 13.6 million bpd in May and fall further to just 6.1 million bpd, according to a Rystad Energy analysis. However, despite the improvement, the stock build will still overwhelm remaining global storage, which will fill in weeks.

Global supply is expected to fall in May to 92.8 million bpd, from 98.3 million bpd in April, and further decline to 91.1 million bpd in June. We expect June to see the lowest supply level this year unless further production cuts are announced, with output rebounding from July.

Demand on the other hand, which Rystad Energy estimates will reach its lowest point at 71.8 million bpd in April, will rise to 79.2 million bpd in May and to 85.1 million bpd in June, as governments ease Covid-19-related restrictions and some industrial activity resumes.

This supply figure already includes the cumulative 6.5 million bpd cuts we expect from OPEC+ countries, as well as more than 2 million bpd of production shut-ins from non-OPEC countries (such as Norway) suffering under the unprecedented market squeeze.

“While this may seem like a drastic improvement from April, the oil market is not magically fixed. The storage issue still looms large and will spill over onto trading floors, as buyers are left with crude they cannot physically cannot place, and into the boardrooms of oil companies which must make very costly but necessary decisions to scale back production and give the market some breathing space,“ says Rystad Energy oil market analyst Louise Dickson.

The demand-supply gap will become narrower in practice as we believe the market will be forced to tighten the stock build gap during May when countries run out of local storage. After local storage is exhausted, tankers will be packed with oil barrels seeking refuge in the country with the most remaining storage capacity – the US.

Until this gap is filled by additional shut-ins (possibly even within OPEC+ countries themselves), we can expect further downward pressure on oil prices, especially those that lack a clear conduit to the export market.

If sufficient production isn’t shuttered by 19 May 2020 (the expiration of the WTI June 2020 contract), then the potential remains for another nightmare WTI price collapse, which we do not rule out spreading to other crude blends. However, given that most oil futures outside of WTI do not require the buyer to physically take oil delivery, and instead have cash settlement options, the destruction to other benchmarks should be tamer.

The negative price crash is most clearly linked to the shortage in global storage. Currently, global storage for crude is about 90% full and for crude oil products, that figure is closer to 80%. Rystad Energy currently estimates that there is 400 million barrels of available global crude storage left, and that crude stocks will build by 13.6 million bpd on average in the month of May.

The math isn’t overly complicated, and at this rate, assuming storage tanks can only be filled to about 95% capacity due to technical reasons, Rystad Energy forecasts storage is already hitting the wall in the markets. And, it could reach capacity at the last storage facility standing, the US, towards the end of May. Cushing, Oklahoma could top up even sooner.

“No matter how this physical rebalancing occurs during May, we still expect that the oil price bottom is right in front of us rather than behind us. The next question for markets now is what the recovery will look like and how many oil companies are able to weather the storm and bring inevitable field shut-ins back onstream,” adds Dickson.

We still believe in an oil price recovery, possibly starting as early as June, and see a risk for a tight market in 2022 with prices much higher than pre-crisis levels. This will be facilitated by a recovery in demand to above pre-Covid-19 levels in 2022, ongoing OPEC+ cuts, and a loss of supply capacity in both US shale and long-cycled global production. Not all production that is currently being shut-in will be able to swiftly return.


Photo credit and source: Rystad Energy
Published: 4 May, 2020

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Mass Flowmeter

Hong Kong backs MFM adoption with voluntary scheme to boost bunkering competitiveness

Hong Kong’s Marine Department launched the Quality Bunker Operator Scheme to encourage bunker operators to install and use mass flow meter systems on their bunker vessels.
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June 4, 2026

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RESIZED EH dual mfm setup

Hong Kong’s Marine Department (MD) on Wednesday (3 June) launched the Quality Bunker Operator Scheme to encourage bunker operators to install and use mass flow meter systems (MFM systems) on their bunker vessels.

MD said the scheme aims to enhance Hong Kong’s bunkering service quality and the competitiveness of Hong Kong ports, thereby further consolidating Hong Kong’s position as an international maritime centre and a major bunkering port.

Under the Scheme, bunker operators of traditional maritime fuel and biodiesel that install and use MFM systems on their bunker vessels, with the MFM systems inspected and certified by an accredited body in accordance with the International Organization for Standardization’s ISO 22192 Standard or equivalent requirements, can apply to the MD for inclusion in the scheme’s “List of Quality Bunker Vessels”, provided they meet the relevant technical and operational requirements. 

Details of the bunker vessels successfully included in the List will be published on a dedicated page on the MD’s website for reference by shipping companies and relevant stakeholders.

Participation in the Scheme is voluntary. In addition to receiving recognition from the MD, participating bunker operators will benefit from enhanced corporate image and competitiveness through the adoption of MFM systems, thereby boosting customers’ confidence and helping to create new business opportunities.

 A spokesman for the MD, said: “As an international maritime centre supported by our country, Hong Kong has a strategic location adjacent to major international fairways. Coupled with years of development in marine fuel bunkering, Hong Kong possesses rich experience and talent in the field. For many years, Hong Kong has consistently ranked as the seventh-largest bunkering port globally, the second-largest in our country, and the largest in the Greater Bay Area, providing reliable and competitive fuel bunkering services to ocean-going vessels from around the world. 

“As the international shipping industry has an increasing demand for accuracy and transparency in bunkering services, service quality and measurement precision in bunkering operations have become important indicators of a bunkering port’s competitiveness. The Scheme will enhance bunkering accuracy and transparency, further enhancing the quality of Hong Kong’s bunkering services.

The spokesman added that comprehensive port services are one of Hong Kong’s key advantages as an international maritime centre.

“We will also mandate the use of MFM systems on all methanol bunker vessels this year to ensure that Hong Kong continues to provide high-quality bunkering services in the era of green maritime fuels.” 

Note: The application form for the Scheme can be found on the MD’s website. Interested bunker operators can download the application form from the website or contact the MD’s Green Maritime Fuel Team via email ([email protected]) for details.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 4 June, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

MPA and MSC ink MoU to support adoption of alternative bunker fuels

MPA and MSC will explore new routes and services to strengthen connectivity, support the adoption of alternative marine fuels such as bio-LNG, and advance technologies to improve vessel energy efficiency.
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MPA and MSC ink MoU to support adoption of alternative bunker fuels

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Wednesday (3 June) said it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company to strengthen collaboration in maritime decarbonisation, digitalisation, innovation, and manpower development. 

The MoU was signed on 25 May 2026 by Mr Ang Wee Keong, Chief Executive of MPA, and Mr Soren Toft, Chief Executive Officer of MSC.

The MoU underscores the shared commitment of MPA and MSC to foster a sustainable, digital, and future-ready maritime sector, while enhancing MSC’s operational and business activities in Singapore. This year also marks the 30th anniversary of MSC establishing its Asia Regional Office and local office in Singapore.

Under the MoU, MPA and MSC will explore new routes and services to strengthen connectivity, support the adoption of alternative marine fuels such as bio-LNG, and advance technologies to improve vessel energy efficiency and operational performance.

MPA and MSC will also collaborate on maritime digitalisation initiatives to improve operational efficiency, including streamlining vessel arrivals and port operations. 

On manpower development, MSC will support internship and scholarship opportunities through Singapore Maritime Foundation’s Maritime Outreach Network (MaritimeONE) platform, an industry-led tripartite partnership comprising industry, government and institutes of higher learning that aims to raise awareness of the maritime industry and attract quality talent into the maritime sector.

Mr Ang Wee Keong, Chief Executive of MPA, said: “This partnership reflects the strong collaboration between MPA and MSC in driving sustainability and digitalisation in the maritime sector. By working together on decarbonisation, operational efficiency and talent development, we aim to strengthen Maritime Singapore’s position as a trusted and future-ready global maritime hub.”

Mr Soren Toft, Chief Executive Officer of MSC, said: “Singapore is a strategically important hub for MSC and a key gateway to the broader Asia region. As we mark 30 years in Singapore, this MOU reinforces our long-term commitment to strengthening our presence here. MSC and Singapore are closely aligned on the priorities shaping the future of global shipping, and we look forward to deepening this partnership to drive the continued growth and resilience of the maritime industry.”

 

Photo credit: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore
Published: 4 June, 2026

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Emissions reporting

StormGeo and OceanScore link emissions data, compliance workflows

Cooperation combines StormGeo’s expertise in operational vessel and emissions data with OceanScore’s expertise in emissions compliance workflows across EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and UK ETS requirements.
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StormGeo and OceanScore link emissions data, compliance workflows

Weather intelligence and decision support solutions provider StormGeo and Hamburg-based technology platform OceanScore on Wednesday (3 June) said they have deepened their ongoing cooperation through the signing of a collaboration agreement during Posidonia 2026 in Athens on 2 June.

The cooperation combines StormGeo’s expertise in operational vessel and emissions data with OceanScore’s expertise in emissions compliance workflows across EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and upcoming UK ETS requirements.

Together, the companies aim to help shipping companies seamlessly navigate increasing regulatory complexity more efficiently — from emissions reporting and data validation to compliance exposure management, pooling and financial settlement.

As emissions regulation becomes an increasingly important part of commercial shipping operations, the need for reliable operational data and streamlined compliance processes continues to grow. The cooperation between StormGeo and OceanScore is designed to support shipping companies with more connected, transparent and actionable processes across operational and commercial teams.

“From the outside, companies like StormGeo and OceanScore may sometimes be perceived as competitors because both operate around emissions and compliance workflows,” said Albrecht Grell, Managing Director at OceanScore. 

“But in reality, the industry increasingly needs both perspectives working together: trusted operational emissions data on one side and commercial compliance execution on the other. Our cooperation reflects that shipping companies are no longer looking for isolated solutions — they need connected processes, automated across different systems and reliable decision-making throughout the full compliance chain.”

By connecting validated operational emissions data with commercial compliance management, the cooperation supports workflows across:

  • emissions reporting and validation 
  • compliance management across EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and upcoming UK ETS requirements
  • exposure visibility and cost transparency
  • pooling, settlement and financial processes 

The cooperation also aims to improve commercial transparency and coordination across operational and commercial stakeholders.

“StormGeo plays a central role in helping shipping companies turn operational vessel and emissions data into trusted, decision-ready insights,” said Espen Martinsen, Chief Commercial Officer at StormGeo. 

“As emissions regulations become more complex, this data is essential for transparent and efficient compliance management. By working with OceanScore, we can help customers connect StormGeo’s validated operational data with commercial compliance processes, creating a more integrated and practical approach to emissions management.”

The signing ceremony took place at the StormGeo booth during Posidonia 2026 in Athens and was attended by representatives from both companies.

Both companies expect the cooperation to continue evolving alongside upcoming regulatory developments, including FuelEU Maritime, EU ETS, the upcoming UK ETS and future emissions-related frameworks affecting global shipping.

 

Photo credit: StormGeo
Published: 4 June, 2026

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