Alternative Fuels

Study: LNG-capable fleet could reach total ‘value at risk’ of ~USD 1trillion by 2030

Shipowners should consider not ordering LNG-capable ships and investing in conventionally fuelled ships which are designed for retrofit to zero-emission fuels, says UCL Energy Institute study.

Published

2 years ago

September 21, 2022

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A new study by UCL Energy Institute released on Tuesday (20 September) revealed that the rapidly growing LNG-capable fleet could reach a total “value at risk” of ~USD 1trillion (USD 850 billion) by 2030.

The study found that if policies that incentivise shipping to decarbonise in line with the Paris Agreement were in place by the end of the decade, the LNG-capable fleet would compete against zero emissions shipping, whilst also being incentivised to switch away from the use of fossil fuel.

Whilst policy and competition would affect all ships built to use fossil fuels, the analysis suggests that more expensive LNG-capable assets (also known as LNG dual-fuel) would see reductions in their value to match the value of similar aged but lower cost conventional vessels designed to use fuel oil.

The report titled Exploring methods for understanding stranded value: case study on LNG-capable ships found that the write-down of the full USD 850 billion value at risk is not realised if LNG-capable vessels retrofit to run on scalable zero emission fuels (hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels such as ammonia). Under these circumstances, the stranded value is estimated at approximately 15-25% of their value (USD 129-USD 210 billion if the LNG-capable fleet grows strongly this decade).

The study said LNG has been portrayed as transitional fuel for the shipping sector, but there is growing scientific evidence that shows the environmental benefits are limited, if not negative, compared to LSHFO (Low Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil), when considering a full lifecycle analysis of emissions and accounting for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions.

The least-cost pathway for shipping to meet its required shift away from fossil fuels is to a mix of electrification in short-sea shipping, and use of scalable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels such as ammonia and methanol for deep-sea shipping.

Marie Fricaudet, lead author and PhD student at UCL Energy Institute, said: “This report is a first attempt to extend the research on stranded power generation assets and unburnable fossil fuel reserves to the shipping sector.”

“The findings highlight that the risk of stranded assets is also very material in the shipping sector. The longer we leave the LNG transition running and then switch, the more painful it will be and technology lock-in during this crucial decade will create more resistance to change later.”

The report shows a boom in the ordering of LNG vessels over the recent years, with 65% of the newbuilding deliveries by 2025 being capable of running on LNG as a marine fuel, up from only 10% a couple of years ago. Yet, the size of the LNG-capable fleet (by dwt and number of ships) is currently small, therefore there is still time to anticipate regulatory and technology developments and manage exposure to a class of assets that may be particularly exposed to stranded value risk.

Public funding has played a major role in financing LNG vessels through various government run schemes, directives and export credit agencies, such as the NOx Fund in Norway, the European Union’s directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure, the European Investment Bank and the Japanese and Korean Export Credit Agencies.

Dr Tristan Smith, co-author and Associate Professor at UCL Energy Institute, said: “As this decade proceeds, we will continue to experience more and more severe impacts from climate change. This will further grow pressure both in markets (ESG) and policy negotiations to align assets to a rapid shift to zero emissions. Anticipating this pressure is straightforwards, and whilst the best solutions for zero emissions international shipping are still emerging, it is already clear that LNG-capable shipping is not well positioned and faces a higher risk of stranded value during the transition.”

The study argued that governments should not use public funding to exacerbate the creation of stranded value and identifies methods that investors can use to identify the risks posed by climate change on shipping assets.

The report said shipowners and financiers should consider not ordering LNG-capable ships and investing in conventionally fuelled ships which are designed for retrofit to zero-emission fuels.

“For existing LNG-capable ships, investors should consider ways to manage the risk of stranded value – e.g. factoring in the cost of retrofit (or other actions to remain compliant) at the point of newbuild or using a steeper than linear depreciation curve,” it said.

For policy makers, the report asks for urgency and clarity of future regulations, especially around when and how methane emissions will be considered, to help investors in both existing ships and newbuilds consider and anticipate the potential impact of regulation on values.

Photo credit: Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash
Published: 21 September, 2022

Alternative Fuels

South Korea launches USD 696 million green bunker fuel infrastructure fund

Out of KRW 1 trillion, KRW 600 billion will be invested to build port storage facilities capable of supplying alternative marine fuels while KRW 400 billion will be used for constructing four bunkering vessels.

Published

17 hours ago

January 22, 2025

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South Korea launches USD 696 million green bunker fuel infrastructure fund

South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and Korea Ocean Business Corporation recently held a launch ceremony in Seoul for a KRW 1 trillion (USD 696 million) infrastructure fund that will be used to support the development of storage facilities for green marine fuels and bunkering vessels.

Out of the KRW 1 trillion, KRW 600 billion will be invested to build port storage facilities capable of supplying LNG, methanol, and ammonia, and the remaining KRW 400 billion will be invested in constructing four new LNG and ammonia bunkering vessels by 2030.

The move is expected to meet growing demand for green bunker fuels for domestic vessels and ensure reliable fuel supplies for foreign ships calling at domestic ports.

The ministry also announced that the Ulsan Hyundai Liquid Cargo Terminal Expansion Project was selected as the new fund’s first project to support the demand for methanol bunker fuel for domestic and foreign vessels. The total cost of the project is KRW 240 billion, of which KRW 130 billion will be provided by the infrastructure fund.

In addition, the government plans to strengthen LNG supply capabilities through the Yeosu Myodo LNG Hub Terminal Project scheduled as the second project to be supported by the fund.

Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Kang Do-hyung, said: “Through the infrastructure fund, the government will flexibly expand the eco-friendly ship fuel supply infrastructure in line with future demand so that our ports can continue to secure a competitive edge as a global hub port.”

Photo credit: Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries of South Korea
Published: 22 January, 2025

Alternative Fuels

UECC green bunker fuel investments avert FuelEU surcharges for customers

UECC said it has been able to eliminate surcharges for its customers under FuelEU Maritime as proactive adoption of green marine fuels has drastically reduced its financial exposure to the regulation.

Published

17 hours ago

January 22, 2025

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UECC and Titan team up on bio-LNG bunkering operations in Port of Zeebrugge

United European Car Carriers (UECC) on Monday (20 January) said it has been able to eliminate surcharges for its customers under FuelEU Maritime as proactive adoption of green fuels has drastically reduced its financial exposure to the newly implemented regulation.

Currently, switching to low-carbon biofuels is generally seen as the most effective route to achieve compliance with progressively tighter carbon intensity reduction targets and thereby avoid penalties under FEUM, which is designed to promote uptake of alternative fuel technologies towards the goal of net zero.

However, this approach will typically entail higher fuel costs for shipping companies given that biofuels - which can deliver respective reductions of 85% and 100% in well-to-wake and tank-to-wake emissions - cost between 50-150% more than conventional fossil fuels, while there is also limited feedstock supply.

An additional ‘Energy Surcharge’ levied on shippers to compensate for this price differential can be as much as 2-5% with the use of biofuel, according to UECC’s Energy & Sustainability Manager Daniel Gent.

But he said: “UECC will change absolutely nothing about its pricing structure in relation to FEUM.”

Gent explained this is largely due to the fact that UECC has already achieved significant reductions in carbon intensity by expanding the use of biofuels across its 15-vessel fleet since 2020.

It has also adopted liquefied biomethane (LBM) on its five dual and multi-fuel LNG Pure Car and Truck Carriers under the Sail for Change sustainability initiative launched last year that is supported by several major vehicle manufacturers.

“Consequently, we are already running a compliance surplus in relation to FEUM with our current energy mix and this is expected to extend into the early 2030s,” he says.

“We have previously informed our customers that their support for our investment in multi-fuel LNG vessels would insulate them against regulatory penalties and this is exactly what is happening here. This demonstrates the clear benefits of being ahead of regulation, investing in progressive technology and in the process of generating savings for our customers.”

UECC’s fleet decarbonisation effort has focused on investments in eco-friendly newbuilds - with two more multi-fuel LNG battery hybrid PCTCs currently on order - as well as piloting alternative fuels, in addition to operational efficiencies and technical measures such as waste heat recovery and hull anti-fouling.

The company has rigorous fuel selection criteria based on sustainability, technical suitability and commercial viability. Its bio-products are compliant with Renewable Energy Directive (RED) criteria and sourced from Annex 9 feedstocks in line with regulatory requirements, while all fuels used are ISCC-certified.

Through a proactive fuel procurement strategy, UECC has secured volumes of alternative fuels for the longer term through agreements with suppliers like Titan Clean Fuels for LBM and ACT Commodities for biofuels to promote green fuel bunkering infrastructure. It is also diversifying its sources of supply, such as through a recent first truck-to-ship LBM refuelling operation with Naturgy in Spain.

“LBM from certain feedstocks or including carbon capture are the ‘heavy lifters’ on our decarbonisation journey and we see huge potential in these fuels,” Gent says.

UECC is firmly on track to achieve a minimum 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 to surpass the IMO target, while it is also set to exceed the required FEUM reduction of 31% by 2040 versus a 2020 baseline of 91.16 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule.

This means that UECC will have a sufficient compliance surplus to provide a pooling opportunity for third-party vessels under FEUM “so that all stakeholders can benefit from our investments”, according to Gent. But he says the company is not resting on its laurels and intends to make further alternative fuel investments with the aim of phasing out oil-based fossil fuels by 2040.

“As we are going ‘above and beyond’ in terms of our commitment to alternative fuels such as LBM and biofuel, we expect to have a significant compliance surplus under FEUM. With the investments we are planning in such fuels, UECC will never be in a position of needing to buy or borrow compliance units,” Gent concluded.

Photo credit: United European Car Carriers
Published: 22 January, 2025

Research

Safetytech Accelerator trials show strong potential to cut methane emissions in shipping

Three technologies from Framergy, Sorama, and Xplorobot, which were selected by MAMII, show potential to detect, measure, and mitigate methane emissions on LNG-powered ships.

Published

17 hours ago

January 22, 2025

Admin

Safetytech Accelerator on Tuesday (21 January) said it has successfully completed three technology feasibility studies as part of its flagship Methane Abatement in Maritime Innovation Initiative (MAMII).

The studies were done in collaboration with Chevron, Carnival Corporation, Shell and Seapeak.

The results of these feasibility studies showed strong potential to cut fugitive methane emissions in the maritime industry.

MAMII is exploring options to advance these research projects to on-ship trials as soon as possible. 

While methane slip - unburnt methane released during the combustion process - remains the largest source of methane emissions on ships, emissions across the LNG supply chain, from loading to engine delivery, are also a concern.

These fugitive emissions are often unintended and short-lived, but identifying, quantifying, and mitigating them is essential to achieving industry-wide decarbonization goals.

Xplorobot, Sorama and framergy were selected by MAMII to help address the vital need to detect, measure and capture fugitive methane emissions from LNG-fuelled ships.

Each provider selected for the trials brings expertise in a different technology, including:

Xplorobot: Provides a handheld device and AI-powered platform to detect and measure fugitive methane on ships using computer vision to pinpoint leak locations, overlay real-time emission rate data, and integrate seamlessly with existing systems for quick issue resolution without requiring specialised training.
Sorama: Develops acoustic cameras that detect fugitive gas by visualizing sound and vibration fields in 3D. Integrated AI and onboard software identify anomalies and classify sounds, enabling direct leak localization without complex analysis.
framergy: Specialises in adsorbents and catalysts for methane emission management. Their product, AYRSORB™ F250GII, captures and stores fugitive methane by selectively filtering methane from the air, leveraging its ultra-high surface area and coordination chemistry.

Feasibility Study Results Show Promise For Methane Abatement

Xplorobot conducted a detailed evaluation of their Methane Compliance Solution, focusing on its efficacy in detecting and quantifying methane emissions on LNG carriers and LNG-powered vessels.

The study targeted emissions from the warm side of the gas fuel line and both planned and unplanned venting events. Utilising comparable on-land data, this desktop analysis assessed how the technology would perform in maritime settings.

The technology demonstrated accuracy levels of +/-30% for emissions over 500 grams per hour and +/-50% for emissions between 100 and 500 grams per hour, thanks to a refined neural network algorithm calibrated through controlled release experiments. Xplorobot's solution promises to reduce inspection time dramatically with the ability to inspect 50 to 100 components in under an hour—sometimes as quickly as 10 minutes.

This efficiency, combined with automated digital emission tracking and compliance reporting, make the solution cost-effective. The next step is to deploy the kit in the field to further validate and optimise the technology for widespread adoption across the maritime industry.

Photo credit: CHUTTERSNAP from Unsplash
Published: 22 January, 2025