Report: Shipping is ‘off track’ to meet 5% zero-emission bunker fuel target by 2030

A report released on Wednesday (25 September) from the UCL Energy Institute, Getting to Zero Coalition, and UN Climate Change High Level Champions showed that the majority of actors across the maritime ecosystem are moving too slowly to meet critical decarbonisation target, putting 2050 net zero goals at risk.

The third annual progress report, Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, warned that the next 12 months being critical to avoid shipping falling irreparably behind its climate goals.

Global shipping is responsible for around 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – more than Germany – so it is a crucial sector to decarbonise. With global trade predicted to quadruple by 2050, emissions will skyrocket without urgent action.

The parties involved in the report said the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a goal of ensuring that zero- or near-zero emission fuels make up 5% to 10% of all shipping fuels by 2030. The 5% target is considered the critical mass at which the infrastructure, supply chains, and technology that support zero-emission marine fuels mature and enable exponential growth. 

“This means if the 5% target is not achieved, it could jeopardise the industry’s entire 2050 net-zero goal,” they said. 

According to the report, production of scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF) currently in the pipeline could end up covering less than half of the fuel needed to hit the 2030 target, while the current order book of SZEF-capable vessels would only deliver around 25% of required SZEF demand by the same year. 

Finance for SZEF is also now ‘off track’ – a downgrade from 2023 – due to a slowdown in funding towards SZEF-related activities and more funding going towards fossil-fuelled vessels.

Dr. Domagoi Baresic, Research Fellow at the UCL Energy Institute, said: “The speed at which the shipping industry adopts hydrogen-derived fuels will shape the success and the cost of this transition for decades to come.”

“Extensive adoption of such fuels by 2030 remains within reach but will require significant and immediate action by policymakers, fuel suppliers, and the shipping industry over the next 12 months.”

“Without such action, the transition will be much longer, costlier and have a less positive environmental impact. All the ingredients for a rapid adoption already exist, but it is up to the relevant actors to make it a reality.” 

Of the 35 actions required to deliver the 2030 breakthrough, just eight are considered ‘on track’, while 13 have been classed as ‘off track’ – up from eight in last year’s edition of the report. The remaining 14 are only ‘partially on track’. 

However, the report also stressed that meeting the goal is still achievable if action is stepped up. It points to strong progress on actions within in the ‘policy’ and ‘supply’ system change levers as examples of success, with hopes that strong GHG pricing and the fast delivery of announced production projects respectively could put both ‘on track’.

Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, said: “Increasing the use of zero-emission fuels is at the heart of decarbonising the shipping industry, but we are not seeing the progress required to meet our decarbonisation goals.”

“There is no time to waste, and we must see a big shift in momentum over the next 12 months to bring our 2030 targets within reach. With such long lead times to implement policy, and finance and build vessels and energy supply chains, the window of opportunity is only open by a crack – but importantly, it is still open.”

“This report must act as a serious wake-up call to the industry to accelerate the transformation we need to see in the sector.”  

Note: The report titled ‘Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough’ can be found here. 

Photo credit: Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash
Published: 26 September, 2024