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Report: Shipping is ‘off track’ to meet 5% zero-emission bunker fuel target by 2030

Majority of actors across the maritime ecosystem are moving too slowly to meet critical decarbonisation target, putting 2050 net zero goals at risk, according to report by UCL Energy Institute and partners.

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A report released on Wednesday (25 September) from the UCL Energy Institute, Getting to Zero Coalition, and UN Climate Change High Level Champions showed that the majority of actors across the maritime ecosystem are moving too slowly to meet critical decarbonisation target, putting 2050 net zero goals at risk.

The third annual progress report, Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, warned that the next 12 months being critical to avoid shipping falling irreparably behind its climate goals.

Global shipping is responsible for around 3% of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – more than Germany – so it is a crucial sector to decarbonise. With global trade predicted to quadruple by 2050, emissions will skyrocket without urgent action.

The parties involved in the report said the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a goal of ensuring that zero- or near-zero emission fuels make up 5% to 10% of all shipping fuels by 2030. The 5% target is considered the critical mass at which the infrastructure, supply chains, and technology that support zero-emission marine fuels mature and enable exponential growth. 

“This means if the 5% target is not achieved, it could jeopardise the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal,” they said. 

According to the report, production of scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF) currently in the pipeline could end up covering less than half of the fuel needed to hit the 2030 target, while the current order book of SZEF-capable vessels would only deliver around 25% of required SZEF demand by the same year. 

Finance for SZEF is also now ‘off track’ – a downgrade from 2023 – due to a slowdown in funding towards SZEF-related activities and more funding going towards fossil-fuelled vessels.

Dr. Domagoi Baresic, Research Fellow at the UCL Energy Institute, said: “The speed at which the shipping industry adopts hydrogen-derived fuels will shape the success and the cost of this transition for decades to come.”

“Extensive adoption of such fuels by 2030 remains within reach but will require significant and immediate action by policymakers, fuel suppliers, and the shipping industry over the next 12 months.”

“Without such action, the transition will be much longer, costlier and have a less positive environmental impact. All the ingredients for a rapid adoption already exist, but it is up to the relevant actors to make it a reality.” 

Of the 35 actions required to deliver the 2030 breakthrough, just eight are considered ‘on track’, while 13 have been classed as ‘off track’ – up from eight in last year’s edition of the report. The remaining 14 are only ‘partially on track’. 

However, the report also stressed that meeting the goal is still achievable if action is stepped up. It points to strong progress on actions within in the ‘policy’ and ‘supply’ system change levers as examples of success, with hopes that strong GHG pricing and the fast delivery of announced production projects respectively could put both ‘on track’.

Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, said: “Increasing the use of zero-emission fuels is at the heart of decarbonising the shipping industry, but we are not seeing the progress required to meet our decarbonisation goals.”

“There is no time to waste, and we must see a big shift in momentum over the next 12 months to bring our 2030 targets within reach. With such long lead times to implement policy, and finance and build vessels and energy supply chains, the window of opportunity is only open by a crack – but importantly, it is still open.”

“This report must act as a serious wake-up call to the industry to accelerate the transformation we need to see in the sector.”  

Note: The report titled ‘Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough’ can be found here

 

Photo credit: Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash
Published: 26 September, 2024 

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LNG Bunkering

New MOL vessel to be supplied LNG bunker fuel in Japan before voyage to Australia

After departing from Saijo Shipyard, LNG fuel will be supplied directly to “Verde Heraldo” through shore-to-ship bunkering at Senboku Terminal of Osaka Gas, and is then scheduled to sail for Australia.

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New MOL vessel to be supplied LNG bunker fuel in Japan before voyage to Australia

Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) on Friday (18 April) said the naming and delivery ceremony for the LNG-fuelled Capesize bulker, which MOL ordered for JFE Steel Corporation, was held at the Saijo Shipyard of Imabari Shipbuilding. 

The vessel was named the Verde Heraldo, which means “Green Pioneer” in Spanish, by JFE Steel President and CEO Masayuki Hirose. MOL executives including President & CEO Hashimoto were also on hand for the ceremony.

After departing from Saijo Shipyard, LNG fuel will be supplied directly to the vessel through shore-to-ship bunkering at the Senboku Terminal of Osaka Gas, and is then scheduled to sail for Australia.

The Verde Heraldo will sail under long-term transport contracts to supply raw materials for JFE Steel's mills, providing both reduced environmental impact and safe and reliable marine transport services.

About Verde Heraldo

LOA: 299.99 m
Breadth: 50.00 m
Draft: 18.436 m
Deadweight tonnage: 210,321 tonnes
Shipyards: Imabari Shipbuilding and Nihon Shipyard 

 

Photo credit: Mitsui OSK Lines
Published: 22 April, 2025

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Alternative Fuels

Indonesia and HDF Energy partner to study hydrogen solutions for maritime decarbonisation

Agreement between HDF Energy, Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation, PLN and ASDP outlined a joint study to decarbonise Indonesia’s maritime sector using locally produced green hydrogen.

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Indonesia and HDF Energy partner to study hydrogen solutions for maritime decarbonisation

PT HDF Energy Indonesia, a subsidiary of French hydrogen infrastructure developer HDF Energy, recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation (MoT), state-owned electric utility PT PLN (Persero) and ferry operator PT ASDP Indonesia Ferry (Persero). 

The agreement outlined a joint study to decarbonise Indonesia's maritime sector using locally produced green hydrogen. The study will be conducted in collaboration with, and co-funded by, the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The MoU was signed during the Global Hydrogen Ecosystem Summit on April 15, 2025 in Indonesia. 

The study will focus on Eastern Indonesia, a region with plenty of sun and home to many of ASDP's strategic ferry routes. HDF Energy is currently developing 23 Renewstable® hydrogen power plants in the region. These facilities combine a solar park with substantial on-site energy storage in the form of green hydrogen to provide non-intermittent, stable and 100% clean electricity to the grid, day and night.

By generating surplus green hydrogen at a competitive marginal cost, Renewstable® plants also pave the way for the supply of green hydrogen to decarbonise maritime transport. The hydrogen produced will be used to power the high-power fuel cells developed and manufactured by HDF Energy in France, a modular, reliable solution tailored to the conversion of maritime fleets.

With this project, HDF Energy is deploying an integrated approach: producing competitive green hydrogen locally and offering a zero-emission maritime vessels' propulsion solution based on its fuel cells.

ASDP, which operates one of the world's largest ferry networks, plays a critical role in connecting Indonesia's remote islands. As a key player in the maritime sector's energy transition, the company will contribute to the study to identify opportunities for converting its fleet and port infrastructures. The aim is to replace traditional diesel engines with solutions based on green hydrogen and renewable electricity, in order to significantly reduce emissions.

PLN has already taken a proactive role in launching hydrogen pilot projects across the country. The company previously signed an MoU with HDF Energy to accelerate the deployment of Renewstable® hydrogen power plants as a green alternative to diesel-based power — a collaboration representing potential investments of up to USD 2.3 billion, supported by international development institutions including the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).

On the same occasion, HDF also signed an MoU with PT Pelayaran Bahtera Adhiguna (PT BAg), a national shipping company specialising in sea transportation services for primary energy distribution across Indonesia. The partnership reflects a joint commitment to assessing hydrogen as a clean alternative to power auxiliary systems on large vessels.

Mathieu Geze, HDF Energy's Director for APAC and President Director of PT HDF Energy Indonesia, stated: “We are proud to reaffirm our commitment to a Net Zero emission future through this strategic collaboration. Working together with PLN, ASDP, the Ministry of Transportation, and with PT Bag, we aim to place Indonesia at the forefront of green hydrogen innovation in the Asia-Pacific. Our fuel cells represent a decisive step forward in the decarbonization of maritime transport in the Indonesian archipelago, as well as a formidable showcase for French innovation on the international stage.”

On a regional scale, this partnership in Indonesia is part of HDF Energy's development drive in Southeast Asia. 

On 11 April, in the Philippines, HDF signed a MoU with the Department of Transportation to harness green hydrogen—produced by HDF's Renewstable® power plants currently under development—to power the next generation of hydrogen-fuelled maritime vessels. 

The following day in Vietnam, HDF entered into a strategic partnership with ACST, an organisation affiliated with the Ministry of Construction, to advance green hydrogen solutions, including the retrofitting of diesel ferries with HDF's hydrogen fuel cells.

 

Photo credit: HDF Energy
Published: 22 April, 2025

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Biofuel

Argus Media: IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices

IMO proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward.

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An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward.

22 April 2025 

The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032.

At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035.

The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts).

If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO.

At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector.

By Stefka Wechsler

Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t

Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t

Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t

Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t

 

Photo credit and source: Argus Media
Published: 22 April, 2025

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