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OceanScore reveals ship segments set to feel EUR 1.3 billion sting of FuelEU penalties

Container segment will bear the brunt of FuelEU costs, accounting for 29% of gross penalties, followed by RoPax on 14% with tankers and bulkers each on 13%, says firm.

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OceanScore Managing Director Albrecht Grell

Hamburg-based technology platform OceanScore on Tuesday (9 July) said the financial impact of FuelEU Maritime is focusing the minds of shipping companies as they face potential penalties for non-compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity reduction targets – and OceanScore has identified those segments set to be hit hardest.

The following is an article by OceanScore elaborating on the matter:

Vessels in the passenger/cruise, container, RoPax, bulker and tanker segments will have significant cost exposure from the complex regulation due to be implemented from 1 January next year, despite a relatively modest initial target of a 2% cut in GHG intensity, according to OceanScore.

The firm’s data analytics team has calculated that shipping will rack up total FuelEU penalties of €1.345 billion in 2025 through analysis of the 13,000 vessels over 5000gt trading within and into the EU/EEA that are subject to the regulation. This is based on data on trading patterns and fuel mix from 2022 – the last full year currently available.

Containers bear burden

The team has been able to determine FuelEU compliance balances and resulting penalties for each vessel using OceanScore’s proprietary data modelling incorporating AIS data, Thetis emissions data, bunker intelligence and advanced analytics/AI. It has factored in the likely fuel mix for each vessel between EU ports and to/from the EU, as well as in ports.

Vessels will be hit with a penalty of €2400 per tonne of VLSFO-equivalent for failing to meet the initial 2% reduction target relative to a 2020 baseline for average well-to-wake GHG intensity from fleet energy consumption of 91.16 gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) – or emissions per energy unit. The GHG intensity requirement applies to 100% of energy used on voyages and port calls within the EU/EEA and 50% of voyages into and out of the bloc.

As with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), it is the container segment that will bear the brunt of FuelEU costs, accounting for 29% of gross penalties, followed by RoPax on 14% with tankers and bulkers each on 13%.

“It is critical for shipping companies to determine a baseline for expected FuelEU costs to secure proper planning and budgeting processes to compare different mitigation options, as well as to decide what to do with outstanding compliance balances,” says OceanScore Managing Director Albrecht Grell.

“This will require, to a higher degree than the EU ETS, a corporate strategy to determine how to reduce the compliance balance/deficit, how to commercialise a surplus and deal with deficits that remain.”

Wide spread of vessel liabilities

OceanScore has found that liabilities per vessel will differ widely across the various segments due to increasingly diversified fuel choices, including greater uptake of biofuels and LNG. Passenger vessels will be penalised the most with an average of €520,000 per vessel annually, followed by RoPax at €480,000 and RoRo at €314,000, with an average penalty for container ships of only €214,000, according to OceanScore.

Grell points out there are also massive discrepancies between vessels within these segments, with a number of ships in the passenger and RoPax segments exposed to penalties of between €1.8m and €2.5m, and payment obligations for some container ships approaching €1m. This is driven by higher energy consumption simply due to vessel size and trading profile.

While penalties will arise from so-called compliance deficits for vessels using conventional fuels, surpluses totalling an estimated €669m will be generated mainly by vessels fuelled by LNG and LPG with significantly lower carbon intensity.

LNG carriers will account for 78% of the total market surplus and gas carriers 8%, while a further 8% will be generated by container ships that have seen a modest uptake in alternative fuels in recent years.

Pooling can halve costs for the industry

Taking into account this estimated compliance surplus, the net cost of FuelEU penalties for shipping from 2025 would be €680m, which indicates that pooling of vessels can roughly halve the gross burden for the industry.

Penalties will, in segments typically using conventional fuels with comparable carbon intensities such as HFO, LFO or MDO, be roughly proportional to the overall fuel consumption, thus correlating with the EU ETS cost.

Initial costs of FuelEU for most conventionally fuelled vessels, prior to pooling, will be around one-third of those associated with the EU ETS next year when the latter regulation will have 70% phase-in. But ultimately FuelEU is likely to prove a much more costly affair as the requirement for GHG intensity cuts rises to 6% by 2030 and then accelerates to reach 80% by 2050.

“It is therefore incumbent on shipowners to define their strategies not only towards fuel choices and the use of onshore power but also towards handling of residual compliance balances such as pooling, banking and borrowing of balances, to mitigate the financial impact of FuelEU. However, pooling will also come at a cost, while banking and borrowing will incur interest costs and only push liabilities into the future,” Grell explains.

‘Sound administrative processes’

He further points out that pooling compensations paid between different shipping companies will effectively divert cash flow away from the EU that it would otherwise have earned from FuelEU penalties – but that this effect is intended by the regulator to “reward” early adopters of clean fuels.

Another factor that will curb potential income for the EU from this regulation is that the compliance gap has been reduced to only 1.6% by 2022, as average GHG intensity from shipping has come down by 0.4% to 90.82 gCO2e per MJ, mainly due to increased LNG carrier calls to Europe after gas supplies via pipelines from Russia were halted when the latter invaded Ukraine. Given this trend and increasing adoption of biofuels, the 2% compliance gap will probably be closed before the first tightening of reduction targets in 2030.

Grell says the priority for shipping companies, especially at this early stage while cost exposure is relatively low, is to get to grips with the complexity of the regulation and tackle the risks arising from the fact the party liable for penalties – the DoC holder, or possibly shipowner – is not the one responsible for emissions, which is typically the charterer.

“As well as having costs oversight, companies require reliable monitoring and reporting mechanisms with high-quality emissions data. They must also have in place complex contractual arrangements and sound administrative processes to manage compliance and mitigate the financial consequences of the new regulation,” Grell concludes.

Related: FuelEU: New regulation leaves DoC holder with fuel liabilities risk, says OceanScore
Related: ‘Big opportunity’ for bunker traders, suppliers on upcoming FuelEU regulation, forecasts OceanScore

 

Photo credit: OceanScore
Published: 12 July, 2024

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Alternative Fuels

UECC: Liquefied biomethane bunker fuel to enable compliance surplus under FuelEU

Company says bunkering liquefied biomethane will give it a significant compliance surplus under FuelEU that can be monetised through the regulation’s pooling mechanism.
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May 22, 2025

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UECC: Liquefied biomethane bunker fuel to enable compliance surplus under FuelEU

United European Car Carriers (UECC) on Monday (19 May) said bunkering liquefied biomethane (LBM), also known as bio-LNG, will give it a significant compliance surplus under FuelEU that can be monetised through the regulation’s pooling mechanism.

UECC’s Senior Manager of Business Planning & Sustainability, Masanori Nagashima, said bio-LNG is now seen by the company as the key fuel to achieve its target of a 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 versus a 2014 baseline and net zero by 2040 – ahead of the 2050 deadline set by both the IMO and EU.

The marine fuel is being bunkered on UECC’s dual and multi-fuel LNG PCTCs – three of which have battery hybrid capability – under Sail for Change that was launched by UECC last year and currently has participation by automotive giants including Toyota, Ford and JLR. 

The company also has on order two multi-fuel LNG battery hybrid newbuild PCTCs due for delivery in 2028 that could be enlisted into the programme. 

The overall carbon intensity of the UECC fleet, using the same gCO2e/MJ (grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule) metric as FuelEU, is calculated at 68 gCO2e/MJ to achieve an interim target of a 25% carbon intensity reduction in 2025, though the company is expected to achieve 57 gCO2e/MJ this year based on its supply plan, according to Nagashima.

This is significantly below the current FuelEU threshold of 89.3 gCO2e/MJ – a 2% reduction from the baseline of 91.16 gCO2e/MJ – and still lower than the threshold of 77.9 gCO2e/MJ from 2035 that is a 14.5% reduction versus the baseline figure.

“The low carbon intensity of our fleet means all of our vessels are expected to gain a C rating or above with the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII)” Nagashima explained.

“It also gives us a significant compliance surplus under FuelEU that can be monetised through the regulation’s pooling mechanism, allowing a great commercial opportunity to offset regulatory costs for customers and eliminate FuelEU surcharges.”

“UECC will continue to accelerate its progress in improving decarbonisation of its fleet by further optimising our fuel mix strategy going forward to incorporate more high-impact fuels as these become viable.”

 

Photo credit: Titan Clean Fuels
Published: 22 May, 2025

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Events

ship.energy summit 2025 to tackle ‘last mile delivery’ of low-carbon bunker fuels

Summit, to be held in Barcelona from 10 to 11 June, will explore how different sectors must collaborate to ensure that alternative marine fuels reach vessels when and where they are needed.
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May 22, 2025

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ship.energy summit 2025 to tackle ‘last mile delivery’ of low-carbon bunker fuels

ship.energy on Wednesday (21 May) announced that its 2025 summit is set to take place at the Port of Barcelona from 10 to 11 June, uniting key players across the energy, port, and technology sectors to address one of the most critical barriers to maritime decarbonisation: the ‘last mile delivery’ of low-carbon marine fuels.

With European and international regulatory pressure mounting – including the rollout of FuelEU Maritime, the EU Emissions Trading System, and expected new IMO fuel standards – the industry is being pushed harder than ever to cut greenhouse gas emissions or face increasing penalties.

However, regulations alone cannot drive meaningful change. The summit’s central theme, Going the last mile: Uniting energy, port and technology stakeholders to deliver shipping’s energy transition, will explore how different sectors must collaborate to ensure that alternative fuels reach vessels when and where they are needed.

Attendees can expect insight-rich sessions covering:

  • The role of ports – from major bunkering hubs to smaller regional ports – in enabling fuel infrastructure and supporting first movers.
  • Progress and bottlenecks in fuel supply chains.
  • How shipping can strengthen demand signals to energy providers, shipbuilders and financiers.
  • The latest technological innovations supporting the last mile – both shipboard and shoreside.

Real-world case studies and a focus on Iberian-led initiatives will anchor discussions in practical examples, underscoring the region’s role in advancing maritime decarbonisation.

Note: More information and registration can be found here.

 

Photo credit: ship.energy
Published: 22 May, 2025

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Emissions reporting

ZeroNorth and Veracity by DNV launch end-to-end emissions reporting, verification service

New offering combines ZeroNorth’s Vessel Reporting and Emissions Analytics platform with Veracity platform and DNV’s Emissions Connect verification services to deliver an end-to-end compliance solution.
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May 16, 2025

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ZeroNorth and Veracity by DNV launch end-to-end emissions reporting, verification service

Maritime technology solutions provider ZeroNorth on Friday (16 May) said it has partnered with Veracity by DNV to launch a fully integrated emissions reporting and verification service for the maritime industry. 

Teekay is the first customer that will be implementing the service across its fleet, following successful testing and development.

As regulatory requirements tighten, ZeroNorth said maritime operators face growing demands for emissions transparency and reporting integrity. At the same time, poor data quality remains an industry-wide challenge. 

“The new offering combines ZeroNorth’s Vessel Reporting and Emissions Analytics platform with the Veracity platform and DNV’s Emissions Connect verification services to deliver an end-to-end compliance solution,” the company said in a statement. 

“The offering simplifies compliance by integrating automated data reporting with expert validation, reducing administrative burdens and improving data reliability.”

A key differentiator is the multi-layered data quality feedback loop, which ensures emissions data undergoes rigorous validation at multiple stages. Verification warnings from Veracity by DNV are automatically flagged to ZeroNorth’s data quality team, which then works directly with vessel crews to resolve discrepancies before final submission to authorities. 

This reduces compliance risks and enhances regulatory confidence while supporting continuous monitoring of EU MRV, IMO DCS, CII ratings, EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime compliance.

Teekay, a long-standing customer of ZeroNorth, participated in early testing of the solution and providing operational feedback. Since its successful implementation with Teekay, the service has been rolled out to two additional customers, and further deployments are underway.

Anders Schulze, Chief Operations Officer at ZeroNorth, said: “The maritime industry faces growing pressure to ensure emissions data is not just reported, but verified to the highest standards. Yet fragmented systems and manual processes continue to undermine data quality and increase compliance risk. 

“By combining ZeroNorth’s data and analytics capabilities with Veracity by DNV’s verification expertise, we are directly addressing this challenge. Our goal is to build trust in emissions data and reduce complexity for shipowners and charterers. We’re especially pleased that Teekay, a long-time partner, played a central role in shaping and validating the service.”

Mikkel Skou, Managing Director at Veracity by DNV, said: “At Veracity by DNV, the value of our ecosystem is built on strong partnerships, exemplified by our collaboration with ZeroNorth.

“By integrating trusted data and solutions like ZeroNorth’s Vessel Reporting and Emissions Analytics platform, we create a robust network that supports collaboration and drives sustainable growth in the maritime industry. 

“We look forward to continuing working towards our ambition to deliver trust and connectivity to the industry through this partnership with ZeroNorth.”

Mikkel Seidelin, Chief Commercial Officer at Teekay, said: “Partnering with ZeroNorth improves our ability to navigate complexities seamlessly, leveraging on data and technology to optimise our performance and reduce inefficiencies.

“When we are equipped with verified, end-to-end data, it empowers us as owners towards seamless decision-making, resulting in real sustainable and operational target-achievements.”

 

Photo credit: ZeroNorth
Published: 16 May, 2025

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