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Integr8 on IEA Outlook: Shipping oil demand steady, but alt bunker fuels take the upside

Research Contributor Steve Christy says shipping oil demand is expected to remain steady through 2050 while growth in fuel demand will increasingly be met by alternative bunker fuels.

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Integr8 on IEA Outlook: Shipping oil demand steady, but alt bunker fuels take the upside

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]       

The end of oil may be exaggerated

It’s that time of year when the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes its longer-term energy outlook to 2050. This extensive, 500-page report is always worth looking at, to gain insights into what could happen in the energy sector, where the oil industry is potentially going, and what this could mean for us in the bunker market.

In their previous reports the IEA (along with many other analysts) has highlighted a clear move away from oil and other fossil fuels over the next 25 years. In this latest report there is a new, compelling case to say that oil demand could continue rising through to 2050!

A new scenario showing oil demand continuing to grow to 2050

The IEA has again gone with three scenarios in their outlook to 2050. As in previous years, one is categorised as ‘Stated Policies’, which assumes a broad range of policies all being successfully implemented, including those put forward but not yet adopted.

The ‘Net Zero by 2050’ scenario is also one used previously. This is a theoretical case and shows a pathway that would achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. We have not shown this case in the following analysis.

Finally, the new scenario is labelled ‘Current Policies’, based on policies and regulations already in place, plus a “cautious approach” regarding the pace at which new energy technologies are implemented. It is this latest scenario that shows oil demand continuing to rise all the way through to 2050.

The graph below illustrates the ‘Stated Policies’ outlook for world oil demand as shown in last year’s report (2024 IEA Stated Policies case). This was the highest level of oil demand of their three cases back in 2024, and showed a world where ‘peak oil’ was reached in the early 2030s.

Nov Graph 01 1024x723

The other two lines show oil demand profiles in this year’s report. The first is the latest ‘Stated Policies’ scenario and is around 3 million b/d higher than the same case in the 2024 report. Although it still shows ‘peak oil’ demand in the 2030s, the decline is very shallow and demand in 2050 is only some 4 4 million b/d (4%) lower than current levels.

The final, and highest line, is the new, ‘Current Policies’ case. Here oil growth is driven by demand for road transport, petrochemicals, air travel, and shipping in the emerging and developing economies (oil demand in the advanced economies is falling). In this case, oil demand in 2050 is some 12 million b/d (+12%) higher than today.

Neither of the two latest cases hint at a massive demise of the oil industry over the next 25 years. There are clearly practical and psychological nuances between a rising and a falling market, but both still imply a massive oil industry, with one continuing to grow (albeit at modest levels), and the other where demand only falls back to 2016 levels by 2050.

Not the same government enthusiasm to make rapid changes

It’s not surprising the IEA has developed this new scenario. Anecdotally, we know the pace of environmental change has slowed considerably, even though last year was the hottest on record and climate risks appear to be rising. The environmental headline is that last year we reached global temperatures of 1.5oC more than pre-industrial levels, and we could be looking at gains of 2-3oC. However, the reality is that a number of countries are easing, or even reversing their efforts to reduce emissions.

The headline story here is in the US, where President Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ has renewed support for the domestic oil, natural gas and coal sectors and at the same time aims to quickly phase out tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs), along with wind and solar energy projects. The US is not the only country on this path, there are also other nations looking to slow down the move away from fossil fuels. This has been demonstrated by the attendees at the recent COP30 in Brazil, and the challenges they faced in getting an acceptable agreement together, without the US even attending.

Renewables are still the biggest feature in terms of growth

Against all these environmental issues, there is still a strong drive for more energy consumption, especially in India, SE Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Between the two scenarios, the IEA shows a 14% and a 28% growth in global energy demand between 2024-50.

Even though the IEA has developed a scenario where oil (and natural gas) demand continues to grow, these increases are very modest in terms of the energy demand projections. So, although the pace of growth in renewables is not as fast as in last year’s scenarios, they still account for the vast majority of incremental energy demand through to 2050.

Nov Graph 02 1 1024x679

Higher oil (& bunker) prices; but not too high

Focusing back on oil. If oil demand does continue to grow, then upstream investment in the industry will be required to keep pace, and prices are likely to rise with these investment needs. The graph below illustrates the IEA scenario outlook for crude prices to 2050 in real terms, with one case showing prices not much higher than current levels, and the other to levels just above $100/bbl.

Nov Graph 03 1024x693

What it all means for the bunker market

The IEA does reference the shipping industry in its report, outlining changes in tonne-km demand and changes in the fuel mix for ship engines. The first pointer is they see a significant rise in demand for shipping in both scenarios, up by 40-50% over the next 25 years (in terms of tonne-km). However, they also see a significant increase in energy efficiency in the shipping sector.

As an overview, they see shipping’s dependency on oil falling from 90% in today’s market, to around 80% in 2035 and then to 70% by 2050. By 2050 the scenario is that natural gas and bioenergy will make up around 25% of the market, with a further 5% coming from methanol, hydrogen, ammonia, and other sources.

However, the overall shipping sector itself is growing throughout this period. So, under the ‘Stated Policies’ case, demand for oil bunkers would remain more-or-less at today’s levels over the next 25 years, and there could be a very modest increase in oil bunkers under the ‘Current Policies’ case. It means that in volume terms the size of the oil bunker market could continue at close to today’s levels for the next 25 years! At the same time, we would see a growing alternative fuels bunker market that could be equivalent to around 40% the size of the oil bunker market.

Looking at the two IEA scenarios, the growth in powering ships in the future will be taken up by alternative fuels and efficiency gains, but it doesn’t look like the size of the oil bunker market will fall. On this basis, we could see an overall industry strategy of carrying on with the oil bunker market as it is, and look towards the growing markets of alternative fuels as the area of expansion.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 1 December, 2025

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Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

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Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (Yang Ming) and South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on Wednesday (2 September) signed a shipbuilding contract for six 13,000 TEU class LNG dual-fuel container vessels. 

The contract was signed by Dr. Chuck Tsai, Chairman of Yang Ming, and Mr. Charles Kim, CEO of Hanwha Ocean. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2029. 

They will complement Yang Ming’s existing fleet of 10,000+ TEU vessels and serve as key vessels on East-West services, with deployment flexibility across trade lanes connecting Asia with the East and West Coasts of North America, South America, and the Mediterranean. 

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

“As Yang Ming transitions toward net-zero emissions, LNG provides a relatively mature and economically viable alternative fuel solution, capable of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 20%,” the company said. 

“At the same time, ammonia can serve as a carbon-free fuel by utilising converted LNG storage facilities, while offering relatively lower conversion costs and comparatively well-developed supply chains and infrastructure. The Ammonia Fuel Ready design will therefore provide Yang Ming with greater flexibility in responding to increasingly stringent international regulations on greenhouse gas emissions.”

In addition, the vessels will be equipped with Type B LNG fuel tanks with a design pressure of 1.0 bar to enhance the safety and efficiency of LNG operations, together with a range of energy-saving technologies, including Wind Shields, Rudder Bulbs, Pre-Swirl Stators, and Shore Power Systems. Smart ship technologies and cybersecurity protection features will also be incorporated to enhance operational efficiency, safety, and reliability while effectively reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Deliveries under Yang Ming’s next-generation fleet optimization plan commenced earlier this year. By 2030, a total of 24 new vessels are expected to enter service. 

This includes 18 LNG dual-fuel vessels—comprising five 15,500 TEU, seven 16,000 TEU, and the six 13,000 TEU vessels under this contract—alongside six 8,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel-ready ships. 

 

Photo credit: Yang Ming Marine Transport
Published: 4 September, 2026

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LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Both secured AiP for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

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LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Lloyd’s Register (LR) and the Marine Design and Research Institute of China (MARIC) on Thursday (3 September) have secured Approval in Principle (AiP) for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

Announced at SMM 2026, the concept addresses one of the biggest investment challenges facing shipping today: the need to develop vessels and capabilities that can support a range of alternative fuel options and pathways as technologies, infrastructure and regulations evolve.

While LNG is already a mature fuel pathway, methanol and ammonia remain at an earlier stage of development, with questions around global fuel availability, infrastructure development, economics and long-term adoption.

The 114,000 DWT tanker concept has been designed as a product and crude oil carrier that can accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia as technologies, regulations and fuel supply chains mature. By incorporating conversion readiness at the design stage, the concept aims to reduce future retrofit complexity and provide owners with greater confidence when planning long-term fleet investments.

The design concept was reviewed against LR’s July 2026 class rules and regulations, including requirements relating to ships using gases and other low-flashpoint fuels, alongside relevant IACS Common Structural Rules for oil tankers. Final classification and statutory approval remain subject to full compliance with all applicable rules and regulations.

Theo Kourmpelis, Global Business Director for Tankers, Lloyd’s Register, said: “Shipowners are being asked to make major investment decisions today despite continued uncertainty around which fuels will dominate in the decades ahead. Alternative fuel solutions each offer potential pathways to compliance, but fuel infrastructure, regulation and economics continue to evolve at different speeds around the world.

“Designs that preserve flexibility will be critical in helping owners manage risk while preparing for multiple future scenarios.”

Si Nan, Marine & Offshore Marketing Department Vice Director, MARIC, said: “As the industry explores different decarbonisation pathways, shipowners need vessel designs that can adapt alongside technological and regulatory developments. This concept was developed specifically to provide greater fuel flexibility and long-term resilience, allowing owners to respond to changing market requirements without being locked into a single fuel strategy.

“Receiving Approval in Principle from Lloyd’s Register is an important milestone that validates the design concept and supports its future development.”

 

Photo credit: Lloyd’s Register
Published: 4 September, 2026

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DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity while the strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year.

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DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

Latest data from classification society DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform alternative-fuelled vessel ordering was strong in August, with 52 new vessels added to the platform.

This is the highest monthly total since October 2024 and follows another active month in July, when 47 vessels were added to the database.

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity, with 46 orders recorded. The container segment led the way with 30 orders, while the car carrier segment contributed a further 12 LNG-fuelled vessels. In addition, four ethanol-fuelled bulk carriers and two hydrogen-powered bulk carriers were added during the month, as well as one LNG bunker vessel.

The strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year. In total, 242 alternative-fuelled vessel orders have been placed in the first eight months of 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025.

LNG remains the dominant fuel choice, accounting for 63% of all alternative-fuelled vessel orders registered so far this year. Container vessels represent the largest share of these LNG orders (59%), followed by car carriers (30%).

Jason Stefanatos, Global Decarbonization Director at DNV Maritime, said: “The past two months have been particularly strong for alternative-fuelled vessel ordering, with August recording the highest monthly total we’ve seen since October 2024. This has helped lift year-to-date orders to a level well above the same period last year.

“LNG remains the leading fuel choice, driven largely by activity in the container and car carrier segments. These sectors have been among the earliest adopters of alternative fuels, supported by predictable liner operations and increasing demand from cargo owners to reduce emissions across supply chains. 

“For many owners, LNG offers a combination of emissions reductions, fuel availability and future flexibility while the longer-term fuel landscape continues to evolve. 

“At the same time, the latest figures include orders for ethanol- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels, highlighting that owners continue to explore a range of decarbonization pathways. Different segments are making different fuel choices, but the overall level of activity demonstrates continued investment in lower-emission shipping.”

Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.26 PM Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.36 PM

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 4 September, 2026

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