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GMF: Ammonia set to become most affordable alt bunker fuel option from late 2030s

New insight brief from Getting to Zero Coalition and GMF found dual-fuel ships running on LNG and ammonia will be the most cost-competitive options before the mid-2030s, with ammonia taking the lead from around 2037.

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A new insight brief from the Getting to Zero Coalition and the Global Maritime Forum found that the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) new policy measures are ambitious enough to drive a transition to scalable zero-emission fuels but will ultimately only succeed if they include meaningful rewards and, over time, higher penalties for non-compliance.

The brief, ‘IMO’s policy measures: What’s next for shipping’s fuel transition?’, uses total cost of ownership (TCO) modelling by UMAS and UCL and more than 30 stakeholder interviews to analyse the sector’s capital investment and operational options following the IMO’s adoption of global fuel intensity (GFI) factors and penalties for non-compliance. When adopted, those steps will make shipping the first industry with globally binding greenhouse gas regulations and emissions pricing.

While multiple compliance pathways exist today, the increasing GFI stringency and higher penalties will progressively favour scalable zero-emission fuels, pushing the industry away from fossil fuel-based options such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and toward e-fuels based on green hydrogen.

While the analysis finds that e-fuels have the highest potential for shipping to achieve its long-term decarbonisation targets, early uptake and value chain development are needed if they are to reach commercial viability in time.

“The IMO’s new framework is a historic step forward, but unless e-fuels become competitive early on, there is a risk that the sector will run into bottlenecks as its decarbonisation efforts scale up,” Jesse Fahnestock, the Global Maritime Forum’s director of decarbonisation, said. “The industry can no longer afford to do nothing.”

The analysis shows that dual-fuel ships running on LNG and ammonia will be the most cost-competitive option before the mid-2030s, and that ammonia will become the cheapest from then on. However, this is mainly driven by blue fuels— which use hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture—as synthetic e-fuels remain insufficiently incentivised before 2040.

The TCO modelling finds that even without targeted rewards to spur e-fuel uptake, conventional fuel is likely to be significantly more expensive than LNG and ammonia in the next decade. LNG will have the lowest comparative cost between 2030 and 2035, though this could be extended to 2037 through the use of onboard carbon capture and storage. Ammonia, specifically blue ammonia, is set to become the most cost-competitive option from 2037.

Given the long life spans of these investments, this is likely to make orders of dual-fuel ammonia vessels the competitive choice already today. To ensure that scalable e-fuel alternatives are made ready in time, however, the IMO guidelines must define rewards that ensure their competitiveness today.

“When considering the long-run demands of decarbonisation, ordering dual-fuel vessels capable of running on e-fuels already looks like a smart decision. But future adjustments to the policy can do a lot to encourage investment in e-fuel production facilities,” Fahnestock said.

Note: The full insight brief can be found here

 

Photo credit: william william on Unsplash
Published: 2 June, 2025

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Newbuilding

Singapore: Pinnacle Marine’s first B100 fuelled utility boat starts 1,000-hour research trial

Newbuilding operated by Prestige Ocean Pte Ltd will capture data on bunker fuel emissions, marine fuel behaviour, and performance.

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The 50th vessel constructed by local boat builder Pinnacle Marine (Singapore) Pte Ltd, namely President 100, is starting 1,000 hours of real-time research trials in collaboration with several parties from Wednesday (9 July) onwards, it says.

Powered by B100 biodiesel, the newbuilding operated by Prestige Ocean Pte Ltd will capture data on bunker fuel emissions, marine fuel behaviour, and performance.

It will be participating in trials with Maritime Energy & Sustainable Development Centre of Excellence (MESD), Weichai Singapore, China Classification Society, Pacific International Lines (PTE) Ltd, Abo Shoten, Ltd. / 株式会社安保商店 , Abo Singapore, Wilmar International, Gulf Marine, Amspec Testing & Services, and AYK Engineering and Consulting.

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The President 100, Pinnacle Marine’s first full biodiesel utility boat, was launched on Tuesday in the presence of over 100 guests.

“Our latest vessel, President 100, merges legacy and future. Named after our first aluminium boat (“President”) and inspired by B100 biodiesel, it leads the charge for our next 50 vessels — many of which will embrace green technology,” stated Pinnacle Marine in a LinkedIn post.

“The launch was amazing, with strong turnout from across the maritime sector — authorities, shipowners, operators, agencies, chandlers, researchers, offshore engineers, and petrochemical suppliers.”

It added: “We’re excited to see how it paves the way for wider adoption of B100 biodiesel — a cleaner, sustainable path for Singapore’s harbour craft sector.”

 

Photo credit: Pinnacle Marine (Singapore) Pte Ltd
Published: 9 July 2025

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Newbuilding

BHP awards charter contracts for two ammonia dual-fuelled bulk carriers

BHP continues to work with the maritime industry to develop an ammonia bunkering plan for the two vessels when they are delivered from 2028.

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Global resources company BHP on Wednesday (2 July) signed contracts with COSCO Shipping Bulk Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of COSCO shipping Group (COSCO Shipping) for the charter of two ammonia dual-fuelled Newcastlemax bulk carriers.

The new vessels to be built under this arrangement will be two of only a handful of vessels in the world capable of using ammonia as a bunker fuel.

The two vessels, expected to be delivered from 2028, will primarily transport iron ore from Western Australia to Northeast Asia.

When run on lower or low to zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ammonia, these vessels will be capable of reducing GHG emissions by at least 50% and up to 95% on a per voyage basis compared to a conventionally fuelled voyage.

The five-year time charter contracts are expected to contribute towards a reduction in the GHG emissions intensity of BHP chartered shipping.

BHP continues to work with the maritime industry to develop an ammonia bunkering plan – the process of fuelling ships with ammonia – for the two vessels when they are delivered from 2028.

Sourcing lower and low to zero GHG emissions ammonia is subject to an ongoing tender process.

 

Photo credit: BHP
Published: 9 July 2025

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Milestone

China: Chimbusco and BJEC enter green methanol cooperation agreement

Document was signed between Ding Lihai, deputy general manager of Chimbusco, and Li Jianjun, deputy general manager of BJEC.

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China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co.,Ltd. (Chimbusco) and POWERCHINA Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited (BJEC) on Thursday (3 July) formally entered into a green methanol strategic cooperation framework agreement.

The document was signed between Ding Lihai, deputy general manager of Chimbusco, and Li Jianjun, deputy general manager of BJEC.

BJEC, a subsidiary of China Power Engineering Group, is experienced in the survey, design, construction and technology research and development of large-scale renewable energy projects.

Moving forward, the two parties said they will respectively focus on their core advantages and work together to promote the production, supply, storage and refuelling of green methanol as an energy source to help support the low-carbon transformation of the shipping industry.

Ding Lihai said: “The shipping industry is one of the important sources of global carbon emissions. Promoting low-carbon fuel is the key to the transformation of the industry. As the main force in the supply of bunker fuel, Chimbusco has been committed to expanding its clean fuel supply capacity. The cooperation with BJEC will integrate the advantages of green energy development and fuel supply, accelerate the large-scale application of green methanol, and meet the needs of shipping companies for clean fuel. We look forward to providing effective solutions for the green transformation of the shipping industry through the joint efforts of both parties.”

Li Jianjun said: “Implementing the ‘dual carbon’ goal is an important responsibility of enterprises. BJEC has accumulated strong technical strength in the field of green energy. This cooperation with Chimbusco will focus on the entire industrial chain of green methanol, from raw materials, production to supply, to provide clean and sustainable fuel solutions for the shipping industry. The complementary advantages of both parties will promote the rapid development of the green methanol industry and inject strong impetus into the low-carbon transformation of the shipping industry.”

 

Photo credit: China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co.,Ltd.
Published: 8 July 2025

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