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Alternative Fuels

DNV updates ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report with 24 marine fuel transition scenarios

‘We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions,’ states lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

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T4 Ind 424 IMO ambitions tcm71 232161

Classification society DNV on Tuesday (11 October) said its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report has utilised an enhanced GHG Pathway Model to build and run 24 scenarios quantifying trends in the bunker fuel transition ahead for the shipping sector.

“Our 6th Maritime Forecast to 2050 report (the report) uses an enhanced version of our GHG Pathway Model to build and run an updated portfolio of scenarios to explore the fuel transition ahead,” said Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

“We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions. Shipowners therefore need transition plans that reflect the uncertain future, and flexible fuel solutions that provide robustness and reduce carbon risk.”

T2 Ind 424 List of scenarios tcm71 232158

Researchers have applied six “fuel family” variations, simulating the availability of: sustainable biomass to produce biofuels (e.g. bio-MGO); renewable electricity to produce electrofuels (e.g. e-MGO); and fossil fuels with CCS (i.e. “blue” fuels). For each of these three fuel families, we assign a “High” or “Very high” fuel-price advantage to one fuel family over the others on a basis described in the report.

They explore three cost variations for specific bunker fuel types, in which changes in the relative cost differences between fuels within each family are explored (as described fully in the report).

T3 Ind 424 Energy mix in 2050 tcm71 232160

“In most of our scenarios, around 5% of the energy use in 2030 is from carbon-neutral fuels. Under IMO ambitions, this grows to around 20% in 2040, depending on the scenario. In Decarbonization by 2050, the share of carbon-neutral fuels reaches 40% to 50% in 2040,” Ovrum explains.

Some carbon-neutral fuels dominate the 2050 energy mix in at least one scenario, namely bio-MGO and e-MGO, bio-LNG, blue ammonia and e-ammonia, and bio-methanol.

Among carbon-neutral fuels, the share of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels (bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG, e-LNG) is greater in IMO ambitions scenarios than in Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios.

Collaboration is key to alternative fuels availability

“The initial availability in selected regions has ripple effects beyond their borders, and we have seen this pattern before in the uptake of LNG and batteries in shipping,” recalls Ovrum. “We expect similar effects for other carbon-neutral fuels assigned favourable conditions in the scenario design.”

Driven by procurement requirements from governments, uptake of LNG and batteries was assisted by infrastructure first being developed locally, then nationally, then regionally and globally, adds Ovrum.

It illustrates that the public sector can be an important enabler for phasing in new low-emission technology in shipping, he stressed. “The challenges and opportunities illustrated in our modelling can only be solved by strong alliances among the sector’s stakeholders and with other industries competing for carbon-neutral fuels.”

Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability
Related: DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition
Related: DNV introduces ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model helps shipowners navigate newbuild dilemmas
Related: DNV: Green ammonia a ‘key ingredient’ to decarbonise maritime industry
Related: DNV selected to lead ‘pioneering’ ammonia bunkering safety study in Singapore
Related: DNV Decarbonisation Insights: Singapore’s pathway to Net Zero and the role of Ammonia

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 11 October, 2022

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Methanol

Chimbusco completes bunkering op of China’s first 16,000K TEU methanol DF boxship

“COSCO SHIPPING YANGPU” was supplied approximately 900 metric tonnes of methanol marine fuel by Chimbusco in Shanghai on 11 May.

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Chimbusco completes bunkering of China’s first 16,000K TEU methanol DF boxship

China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co Ltd (Chimbusco) completed a bunkering operation of the first domestically manufactured methanol dual-fuel container ship in Shanghai on 11 May, according to COSCO Shipping on Thursday (15 May). 

COSCO SHIPPING YANGPU was supplied approximately 900 metric tonnes (mt) of methanol marine fuel by Chimbusco at Pier 1 of COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry. 

The operation started on 7 May but was postponed due to unfavourable weather from the Jianghuai Cyclone.

Chimbusco completes bunkering of China’s first 16,000K TEU methanol DF boxship

COSCO Shipping said the operation marked an important achievement in green and low-carbon transformation in shipping, from ship construction and ecological layout of the entire green fuel industry chain of the company. 

Manifold Times previously reported the naming ceremony of China’s first 16,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel container ship, COSCO SHIPPING YANGPU in Yangzhou.

The methanol dual-fuel container ship named was the first in a series of vessels from COSCO Shipping Holdings, constructed by COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Yangzhou. 

Related: COSCO Shipping names China’s first 16,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel container ship

 

Photo credit: Cosco Shipping
Published: 23 May, 2025

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LNG Bunkering

Shell wraps up its first LNG bunkering operation for TUI Cruises in Barcelona

Milestone was achieved by Shell’s LNG bunker barge “Haugesund Knutsen” supplying the “Mein Schiff Relax” cruise ship at Port of Barcelona, says Dexter Belmar of Shell.

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Shell wraps up its first LNG bunkering operation for TUI Cruises in Barcelona

Energy giant Shell recently conducted its first LNG bunkering operation for TUI Cruises in Barcelona, according to Dexter Belmar, General Manager and Head of Global Downstream LNG on Thursday (22 May).

He said the milestone was achieved by Shell’s LNG bunker barge Haugesund Knutsen supplying the Mein Schiff Relax cruise ship.

“Barcelona, one of Europe and the Mediterranean’s leading cruise ports, is also a key LNG bunkering location for Shell as we help more cruise ships transition to lower-emission fuels,” he said in a social media post. 

“A huge thank you to Royal Caribbean Group for their trust, and to Knutsen and Port of Barcelona for their collaboration in making this bunkering safe and efficient.”

Shell wraps up its first LNG bunkering operation for TUI Cruises in Barcelona

Belmar said LNG is leading the way as the preferred alternative bunker fuel in the cruise industry. 

“At Shell, we’re proud to support LNG fuelling needs at 26 locations worldwide, including major cruise ports like Bahamas, Barcelona, Canaveral, Everglades, Jamaica, Miami, Singapore, Southampton, and Tenerife,” he added. 

 

Photo credit: Shell
Published: 23 May, 2025

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LNG Bunkering

IGU report: Global LNG bunkering fleet grows to 56 operational vessels by 2024

LNG bunkering fleet is concentrated in Europe with the highest capacity of operational bunkering vessels, followed by Asia/Asia Pacific and North America, according to 2025 World LNG report by IGU.

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IGU report: Global LNG bunkering fleet grows to 56 operational vessels by 2024

The global operational LNG bunkering and bunkering-capable small-scale vessel fleet reached 56 units at the end of December 2024 with further support from expanding infrastructure and regulatory drivers such as the IMO’s ban of heavy fuel oil in Arctic shipping and the EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation.

This was nine more vessels than in 2023, with a total added capacity of 82,900 cubic metres (m3). 

This was one of the major highlights in the 2025 World LNG report by the International Gas Union (ICU), which was launched at the 29th World Gas Conference (WGC2025) in Beijing on Thursday (22 May). 

IGU report: Global LNG bunkering fleet grows to 56 operational vessels by 2024

The LNG bunkering fleet is concentrated in Europe with the highest capacity of operational bunkering vessels. This is followed by Asia/Asia Pacific and then North America, both of which have seen rapid expansions in the past five years. 

As of the end of 2024, Europe has the highest bunkering capacity, with a total of 190,757 cm across 25 vessels currently in operation within the region. 

Asia/Asia Pacific has the second-highest bunkering capacity, with a total of 179,700 m3 across 17 vessels in operation. From that, China currently has five operational LNG bunkering vessels while South Korea currently provides STS bunkering services with four bunkering vessels. Singapore currently has three bunkering vessels in operation. 

North America continued its progress toward becoming a significant region in the LNG bunkering market in 2024, reaching a total capacity of 86,400 m3 across 10 operational vessels by year-end.

The report noted: “2024 was a significant year for LNG bunkering. Bunker users were quick to capture the reductions in both fuel costs and carbon emissions from using LNG, taking advantage of lower LNG prices relative to other marine fuels in 2024. Lower prices and an emerging LNG-fuelled fleet were catalysts in the large uptake in LNG bunker volumes.”

The Port of Singapore, which is the largest bunkering port in the world, recorded 463,900 tonnes of LNG bunkered in 2024, almost four times the 110,900 tonnes in 2023. The Port of Rotterdam, the second-largest bunkering port in the world, also recorded a 52% increase in bunkered LNG, from 620,000 cm in 2023 to 941,366 cm in 2024.”

IGU also said the newcomer in STS LNG bunkering is the Middle East with the LNG bunkering vessel Green Zeebrugge.

“The ship moved at the end of 2024 to Dubai and has performed the first ever LNG bunkering in the Middle East. This area is identified as a potential new LNG bunkering hub with Oman, the UAE, and Qatar as the main bunkering locations.”

Note: The ‘2025 World LNG Report’ can be downloaded here

 

Photo credit: International Gas Union
Published: 23 May, 2025

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