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Alternative Fuels

DNV updates ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report with 24 marine fuel transition scenarios

‘We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions,’ states lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

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T4 Ind 424 IMO ambitions tcm71 232161

Classification society DNV on Tuesday (11 October) said its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report has utilised an enhanced GHG Pathway Model to build and run 24 scenarios quantifying trends in the bunker fuel transition ahead for the shipping sector.

“Our 6th Maritime Forecast to 2050 report (the report) uses an enhanced version of our GHG Pathway Model to build and run an updated portfolio of scenarios to explore the fuel transition ahead,” said Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

“We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions. Shipowners therefore need transition plans that reflect the uncertain future, and flexible fuel solutions that provide robustness and reduce carbon risk.”

T2 Ind 424 List of scenarios tcm71 232158

Researchers have applied six “fuel family” variations, simulating the availability of: sustainable biomass to produce biofuels (e.g. bio-MGO); renewable electricity to produce electrofuels (e.g. e-MGO); and fossil fuels with CCS (i.e. “blue” fuels). For each of these three fuel families, we assign a “High” or “Very high” fuel-price advantage to one fuel family over the others on a basis described in the report.

They explore three cost variations for specific bunker fuel types, in which changes in the relative cost differences between fuels within each family are explored (as described fully in the report).

T3 Ind 424 Energy mix in 2050 tcm71 232160

“In most of our scenarios, around 5% of the energy use in 2030 is from carbon-neutral fuels. Under IMO ambitions, this grows to around 20% in 2040, depending on the scenario. In Decarbonization by 2050, the share of carbon-neutral fuels reaches 40% to 50% in 2040,” Ovrum explains.

Some carbon-neutral fuels dominate the 2050 energy mix in at least one scenario, namely bio-MGO and e-MGO, bio-LNG, blue ammonia and e-ammonia, and bio-methanol.

Among carbon-neutral fuels, the share of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels (bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG, e-LNG) is greater in IMO ambitions scenarios than in Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios.

Collaboration is key to alternative fuels availability

“The initial availability in selected regions has ripple effects beyond their borders, and we have seen this pattern before in the uptake of LNG and batteries in shipping,” recalls Ovrum. “We expect similar effects for other carbon-neutral fuels assigned favourable conditions in the scenario design.”

Driven by procurement requirements from governments, uptake of LNG and batteries was assisted by infrastructure first being developed locally, then nationally, then regionally and globally, adds Ovrum.

It illustrates that the public sector can be an important enabler for phasing in new low-emission technology in shipping, he stressed. “The challenges and opportunities illustrated in our modelling can only be solved by strong alliances among the sector’s stakeholders and with other industries competing for carbon-neutral fuels.”

Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability
Related: DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition
Related: DNV introduces ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model helps shipowners navigate newbuild dilemmas
Related: DNV: Green ammonia a ‘key ingredient’ to decarbonise maritime industry
Related: DNV selected to lead ‘pioneering’ ammonia bunkering safety study in Singapore
Related: DNV Decarbonisation Insights: Singapore’s pathway to Net Zero and the role of Ammonia

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 11 October, 2022

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Bunker Fuel

SIBCON 2024: Singapore bunker suppliers must provide e-BDN from 1 April 2025

Senior Minister of State Amy Khor also announced MPA will reduce the frequency of verification checks for mass flow meters from twice a year currently, to once a year, from 1 April 2025.

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SIBCON 2024: Singapore bunker suppliers must provide e-BDN from 1 April 2025

From 1 April 2025, all bunker suppliers in the Port of Singapore will be required to provide digital bunkering services as a default, said Senior Minister of State for Transport and Sustainability and the Environment Amy Khor on Wednesday (9 October).

Khor said Singapore will be the first port globally to implement digital bunkering at scale. MPA launched the digital bunkering initiative on 1 November 2023, becoming the first port in the world to implement electronic bunker delivery notes (e-BDN).

“This initiative is expected to save the industry close to 40,000 man-days annually. In addition, MPA will introduce a centralised electronic Bunker Delivery Note record verification facility to enhance the transparency and integrity of transactions in bunkering operations,” she said in her speech at the 23rd Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition (SIBCON). 

She emphasised that the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) will work closely with industry partners and the unions to digitalise and streamline processes to improve efficiency in our port; strengthen our capabilities for the bunkering of future fuels and encourage adoption of these fuels; and upskill our workforce to facilitate the green transition. 

Khor also made the following announcements:

  • From 1 April 2025, MPA will reduce the frequency of verification checks for mass flow meters from twice a year currently, to once a year. Singapore was the first port globally to adopt mass flow meters in 2017, and this new move is expected to help the industry save approximately $300,000 annually.
  • From 1 January 2025, MPA will roll out two innovative AI applications, DocuMind and DocuMatch, developed in collaboration with cloud service providers to drive greater efficiency in our port. These are expected to accelerate certificate processing time from up to three days currently, to a few minutes for most transactions.
  • Two ammonia bunkering proposals by Mitsui and Fortescue-Equatorial Marine Fuels have been selected by the consortia for the next round of Request for Proposal to provide a low- or zero-carbon ammonia solution on Jurong Island for power generation and bunkering.
  • MPA will commit $50 million to support the implementation of the refreshed Maritime Singapore Green Initiative, to further encourage the early adoption of green fuels and technologies across the maritime industry.
  • Singapore will continue to strengthen international partnerships through initiatives like the Green and Digital Shipping Corridors (GDSCs) to enable the digitalisation and decarbonisation of shipping. On 9 October, MPA and the Shandong Provincial Transport Department will be signing the Singapore-Shandong GDSC at the sidelines of the 25th Singapore-Shandong Business Council co-chaired by Mr Chee Hong Tat, Minister for Transport and Second Minister for Finance, and Mr Zhou Naixiang, Governor of the Shandong Provincial Government.

 

Photo credit: Singapore Ministry of Transport
Published: 9 October, 2024

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LNG Bunkering

Seaspan Energy takes delivery of first LNG bunkering vessel

“Seaspan Garibaldi” will take first cargo and finalise commissioning in Vancouver before its first ship-to-ship bunkering in Long Beach, where Seaspan will bunker a series of vessels.

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Seaspan Energy takes delivery of first LNG bunkering vessel “Seaspan Garibaldi”

Seaspan Energy on Monday (7 October) said it took delivery of its first LNG bunkering vessel, the Seaspan Garibaldi and is currently sailing to Vancouver.

Manifold Times previously reported that the vessel is the first of three 7,600m3 LNG bunkering vessels and it is named after Mount Garibaldi, or “Nch'ḵay̓”.

The Garibaldi will take first cargo and finalise commissioning in Vancouver before its first ship-to-ship bunkering in Long Beach, where Seaspan will provide Simultaneous Operations to bunker a series of vessels.

Following its first bunkering, the Seaspan Garibaldi will continue to provide low-carbon solutions to vessels on the West Coast of North America and will soon be joined by Seaspan Energy’s second LNG bunkering vessel, the Seaspan Lions (Ch’ich’iyúy Elxwíkn).

The Seaspan Garibaldi is 112.8 metres in length, 18.6 metres in width, 5 metres in draft, with a design speed of 13 knots.

CIMC Sinopacific Offshore & Engineering (CIMC SOE), a small-scale gas carrier shipyard in the world, was appointed to build all three LNG bunkering vessels.

Related: Seaspan launches “Seaspan Garibaldi”, first of three LNG bunkering vessels

 

Photo credit: Seaspan
Published: 9 October, 2024

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LNG Bunkering

Avenir LNG, Eni ink multi-year charter for LNG bunker vessel “Avenir Aspiration”

Avenir signed a Time Charter Party with Eni subsidiary LNG Shipping for one of the company’s 7,500cbm LNG bunker vessels; charter to Eni will commence from delivery in Europe in 2025.

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Avenir LNG orders two 20,000cbm LNG bunker and supply vessels from CIMC SOE

Avenir LNG Limited on Tuesday (8 October) announced it has signed a Time Charter Party (TCP) with LNG Shipping S.p.A., a 100% subsidiary of Eni S.p.A.(Eni) for one of the company’s 7,500cbm LNG bunker vessels, the Avenir Aspiration

The multi-year time charter to Eni will commence from delivery in Europe in 2025.

With this announcement, Avenir continues to deliver on its chartering strategy which has successfully concluded four new term charter agreements over the past 12 months across its fleet of five vessels on the water and two under construction.

This charter increases the company’s third-party charter revenue backlog, including options, to over USD 285 million, securing additional long term sustainable cashflow for the Group and shareholders over the next decade.

The Avenir Aspiration currently trades alongside the Avenir Ascension in the Northwest Europe performing small-scale supply services and ship-to-ship bunkering operations as part of Avenir’s physical LNG trading division, Avenir Supply and Trading.

Mr. Jonathan Quinn, Managing Director of Avenir LNG, said: “We are excited to be working with Eni to support their expansion into the LNG Bunkering market.”

“This transaction further solidifies Avenir as the trusted partner for modern and efficient small-scale LNG vessels as well as delivering on our strategy to facilitate the growth of LNG as a marine fuel globally.”

“We look forward to embarking on this long-term relationship with Eni whom we will serve with the highest safety and operational standards which Avenir has come to be known for.”

 

Photo credit: Avenir LNG
Published: 9 October, 2024

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