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Alternative Fuels

DNV updates ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report with 24 marine fuel transition scenarios

‘We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions,’ states lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

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T4 Ind 424 IMO ambitions tcm71 232161

Classification society DNV on Tuesday (11 October) said its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report has utilised an enhanced GHG Pathway Model to build and run 24 scenarios quantifying trends in the bunker fuel transition ahead for the shipping sector.

“Our 6th Maritime Forecast to 2050 report (the report) uses an enhanced version of our GHG Pathway Model to build and run an updated portfolio of scenarios to explore the fuel transition ahead,” said Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

“We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions. Shipowners therefore need transition plans that reflect the uncertain future, and flexible fuel solutions that provide robustness and reduce carbon risk.”

T2 Ind 424 List of scenarios tcm71 232158

Researchers have applied six “fuel family” variations, simulating the availability of: sustainable biomass to produce biofuels (e.g. bio-MGO); renewable electricity to produce electrofuels (e.g. e-MGO); and fossil fuels with CCS (i.e. “blue” fuels). For each of these three fuel families, we assign a “High” or “Very high” fuel-price advantage to one fuel family over the others on a basis described in the report.

They explore three cost variations for specific bunker fuel types, in which changes in the relative cost differences between fuels within each family are explored (as described fully in the report).

T3 Ind 424 Energy mix in 2050 tcm71 232160

“In most of our scenarios, around 5% of the energy use in 2030 is from carbon-neutral fuels. Under IMO ambitions, this grows to around 20% in 2040, depending on the scenario. In Decarbonization by 2050, the share of carbon-neutral fuels reaches 40% to 50% in 2040,” Ovrum explains.

Some carbon-neutral fuels dominate the 2050 energy mix in at least one scenario, namely bio-MGO and e-MGO, bio-LNG, blue ammonia and e-ammonia, and bio-methanol.

Among carbon-neutral fuels, the share of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels (bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG, e-LNG) is greater in IMO ambitions scenarios than in Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios.

Collaboration is key to alternative fuels availability

“The initial availability in selected regions has ripple effects beyond their borders, and we have seen this pattern before in the uptake of LNG and batteries in shipping,” recalls Ovrum. “We expect similar effects for other carbon-neutral fuels assigned favourable conditions in the scenario design.”

Driven by procurement requirements from governments, uptake of LNG and batteries was assisted by infrastructure first being developed locally, then nationally, then regionally and globally, adds Ovrum.

It illustrates that the public sector can be an important enabler for phasing in new low-emission technology in shipping, he stressed. “The challenges and opportunities illustrated in our modelling can only be solved by strong alliances among the sector’s stakeholders and with other industries competing for carbon-neutral fuels.”

Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability
Related: DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition
Related: DNV introduces ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model helps shipowners navigate newbuild dilemmas
Related: DNV: Green ammonia a ‘key ingredient’ to decarbonise maritime industry
Related: DNV selected to lead ‘pioneering’ ammonia bunkering safety study in Singapore
Related: DNV Decarbonisation Insights: Singapore’s pathway to Net Zero and the role of Ammonia

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 11 October, 2022

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Methanol

Kambara Kisen orders methanol dual-fuel bulker from Tsuneishi Shipbuilding

Firm ordered a 65,700-dwt methanol dual-fuel dry bulk carrier with Tsuneishi Shipbuilding; MOL signed a basic agreement on time charter for the newbuilding that is slated to be delivered in 2027.

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Kambara Kisen orders methanol dual-fuel bulker from Tsuneishi Shipbuilding

Japanese shipowner Kambara Kisen has ordered a 65,700-dwt methanol dual-fuel dry bulk carrier newbuilding from Tsuneishi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd, according to Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) on Wednesday (20 September).

MOL said it signed a basic agreement on time charter for the newbuilding that is slated to be delivered in 2027. 

The vessel will be designed to use e-methanol produced primarily by synthesising recovered CO2 and hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources, and bio-methanol derived from biogas. 

The vessel's design maximises cargo space while ensuring sufficient methanol tank capacity set to allow the required navigational distance assuming various routes, at the same time maximising cargo space. 

MOL added the vessel is expected to serve mainly in the transport of biomass fuels from the east coast of North America to Europe and the U.K. and within the Pacific region, as well as grain from the east coast of South America and the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe and the Far East.

Details on the time-charter contract:

Shipowner: Kambara Kisen wholly owned subsidiary
Charterer: MOL Drybulk Ltd.
Charter period 2027: -

Details on the newbuilding methanol dual fuel bulk carrier:

LOA: About 200 m
Breadth: About 32.25 m
Draft: About 13.80 m
Deadweight: About 65,700 MT
Hold capacity: About 81,500m3
Shipyard: Tsuneishi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.

Photo credit: Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
Published: 22 September, 2023

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Methanol

Argus Media: Alternatives may drive methanol market growth

Driven by low-carbon policies and regulations, the transportation sector — especially the marine fuels industry — could be a source of heightened demand, according to Argus.

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RESIZED Argus media

The growth of sustainable alternatives to traditional methanol production sources likely will shape the market over the next several years, industry leaders said this week at the Argus Methanol Forum.

20 September 

Driven by low-carbon policies and regulations, the transportation sector — especially the marine fuels industry — could be a source of heightened demand.

"The aim is to be net zero by 2050 but [those solutions are] expensive today and one of the main challenges to build e-methanol or bio-methanol plants is a huge queue for these pieces of equipment that aren't available," Anita Gajadhar, executive director for Swiss-based methanol producer Proman, said.

Bio-based and e-methanol plants of commercial scale, like Proman's natural gas-fed 1.9 million metric tonne/yr M5000 plant in Trinidad and Tobago, are not ready today.

"But that's not to say 10 years from now they won't be there," Gajadhar added.

Smaller projects are popping up. Dutch fuels and gas supplier OCI Global announced plans last week to double the green methanol capacity at its Beaumont, Texas, facility to 400,000 t/yr and will add e-methanol to production for the first time. Production will use feedstocks such as renewable natural gas (RNG), green hydrogen and biogas.

The globally oversupplied methanol market will not get any major supply additions starting in 2024 until 2027. But that oversupply will not last long, Gajadhar said.

Global demand has slowed this year, driven by stagnate economic growth and higher interest rates, according to industry observers.

As much as half of methanol demand is tied to GDP growth, with total methanol demand estimates at 88.9mn t globally in 2023. This is essentially flat from 2022, but up from 88.3m t in 2021 and 87.7mn t in 2020, Dave McCaskill, vice-president of methanol and derivatives for Argus Media's consulting service, said.

Demand is not expected to rebound to 2019 levels of 89.6mn t until 2024 or 2025, he added.

The period of oversupply combined with lackluster demand places methanol in a transition period, Gajadhar said, which opens the door for sustainable feedstock alternatives to shape market growth.

Danish container shipping giant Maersk and French marine logistics company CMA-CGM announced earlier this week a partnership to drive decarbonization in shipping. The partnership seeks to develop fuel and operations standards for bunkering with alternative fuels. The companies will develop net-zero solutions, including new technology and alternative fuels.

Maersk has previously ordered dual-fuel methanol-powered vessels and CMA-CGM LNG-propelled vessels.

The demand for alternative feedstock-derived fuels is there, but the ability to scale-up such production lags. Certified lower-carbon methanol produced using carbon capture and sequestration — also known as blue methanol— can ramp up much more quickly, according to Gajadhar.

By Steven McGinn

Photo credit and source: Argus Media
Published: 22 September, 2023

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Biofuel

Royal Caribbean completes over 12 weeks of bio bunker fuel testing in Europe

Firm expanded its biofuel testing this summer in Europe to two additional ships — Royal Caribbean International’s “Symphony of the Seas” and Celebrity Cruises’ “Celebrity Apex”.

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Royal Caribbean completes over 12 weeks of bio bunker fuel testing in Europe

Royal Caribbean Group on Tuesday (19 September) said it successfully completed over 12 consecutive weeks of biofuel testing in Europe. 

Royal Caribbean International’s Symphony of the Seas became the first ship in the maritime industry to successfully test and use a biofuel blend in Barcelona to meet part of her fuel needs. 

The company confirmed onboard technical systems met operational standards, without quality or safety concerns, demonstrating the biofuel blend is a reliable “drop in” supply of lower emission energy that ships can use to set sail across Europe and beyond. 

The tests across Europe also provided valuable data to understand the availability and scalability of biofuel in the region, the firm added. 

Jason Liberty, president and CEO, Royal Caribbean Group, said: “This is a pivotal moment for Royal Caribbean Group’s alternative fuel journey.”

“Following our successful trial of biofuels this summer, we are one step closer to bringing our vision for net-zero cruising to life. As we strive to protect and promote the vibrant oceans we sail, we are determined to accelerate innovation and improve how we deliver vacation experiences responsibly.”

President of the Port of Barcelona, Lluís Salvadó, said: “Royal Caribbean’s success is a clear example of how commitment to innovation makes possible the development of solutions to decarbonise the maritime sector.”

“In this case, it involves the cruise sector and focuses on biofuels, an area in which the Port of Barcelona is already working to become an energy hub, producing and supplying zero carbon fuels, such as green hydrogen and ammonia, and of other almost zero-carbon alternative fuels, such as methanol, biofuels or synthetic fuels. Innovation and collaboration between ports and shipping companies is key to accelerate the decarbonisation of maritime transport.”

The company began testing biofuels last year and expanded the trail this summer in Europe to two additional ships — Royal Caribbean International’s Symphony of the Seas and Celebrity Cruises’ Celebrity Apex

The sustainable biofuel blends tested were produced by purifying renewable raw materials like waste oils and fats and combining them with fuel oil to create an alternative fuel that is cleaner and more sustainable. The biofuel blends tested are accredited by International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), a globally recognized organization that ensures sustainability of biofuels and verifies reductions of related emissions.

With Symphony of the Seas departing from the Port of Barcelona and Celebrity Apex departing from the Port of Rotterdam, both ships accomplished multiple sailings using biofuel and contributed critical data on the fuel’s capabilities. 

“These results will help accelerate Royal Caribbean Group’s plans to continue testing the use of different types of biofuels on upcoming European sailings this fall. The company is exploring strategic partnerships with suppliers and ports to ensure the availability of biofuel and infrastructures to advance the maritime energy transition,” the firm said. 

Photo credit: Royal Caribbean Group 
Published: 22 September, 2023

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