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DNV updates ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report with 24 marine fuel transition scenarios

‘We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions,’ states lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

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T4 Ind 424 IMO ambitions tcm71 232161

Classification society DNV on Tuesday (11 October) said its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report has utilised an enhanced GHG Pathway Model to build and run 24 scenarios quantifying trends in the bunker fuel transition ahead for the shipping sector.

“Our 6th Maritime Forecast to 2050 report (the report) uses an enhanced version of our GHG Pathway Model to build and run an updated portfolio of scenarios to explore the fuel transition ahead,” said Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

“We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions. Shipowners therefore need transition plans that reflect the uncertain future, and flexible fuel solutions that provide robustness and reduce carbon risk.”

T2 Ind 424 List of scenarios tcm71 232158

Researchers have applied six “fuel family” variations, simulating the availability of: sustainable biomass to produce biofuels (e.g. bio-MGO); renewable electricity to produce electrofuels (e.g. e-MGO); and fossil fuels with CCS (i.e. “blue” fuels). For each of these three fuel families, we assign a “High” or “Very high” fuel-price advantage to one fuel family over the others on a basis described in the report.

They explore three cost variations for specific bunker fuel types, in which changes in the relative cost differences between fuels within each family are explored (as described fully in the report).

T3 Ind 424 Energy mix in 2050 tcm71 232160

“In most of our scenarios, around 5% of the energy use in 2030 is from carbon-neutral fuels. Under IMO ambitions, this grows to around 20% in 2040, depending on the scenario. In Decarbonization by 2050, the share of carbon-neutral fuels reaches 40% to 50% in 2040,” Ovrum explains.

Some carbon-neutral fuels dominate the 2050 energy mix in at least one scenario, namely bio-MGO and e-MGO, bio-LNG, blue ammonia and e-ammonia, and bio-methanol.

Among carbon-neutral fuels, the share of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels (bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG, e-LNG) is greater in IMO ambitions scenarios than in Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios.

Collaboration is key to alternative fuels availability

“The initial availability in selected regions has ripple effects beyond their borders, and we have seen this pattern before in the uptake of LNG and batteries in shipping,” recalls Ovrum. “We expect similar effects for other carbon-neutral fuels assigned favourable conditions in the scenario design.”

Driven by procurement requirements from governments, uptake of LNG and batteries was assisted by infrastructure first being developed locally, then nationally, then regionally and globally, adds Ovrum.

It illustrates that the public sector can be an important enabler for phasing in new low-emission technology in shipping, he stressed. “The challenges and opportunities illustrated in our modelling can only be solved by strong alliances among the sector’s stakeholders and with other industries competing for carbon-neutral fuels.”

Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability
Related: DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition
Related: DNV introduces ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model helps shipowners navigate newbuild dilemmas
Related: DNV: Green ammonia a ‘key ingredient’ to decarbonise maritime industry
Related: DNV selected to lead ‘pioneering’ ammonia bunkering safety study in Singapore
Related: DNV Decarbonisation Insights: Singapore’s pathway to Net Zero and the role of Ammonia

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 11 October, 2022

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Alternative Fuels

Argus Green Marine Fuels Asia eBook released ahead of February bunker conference

eBook features interviews with Microsoft, JERA, IBIA, Anglo American, Sumitomo Corporation, Hafnia, BHP, Global Maritime Forum, DS NORDEN, ADNOC Group, and Standard Chartered Bank.

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Argus Media organises Green Marine Fuels Asia Conference in Singapore

Independent global energy and commodity market intelligence provider Argus Media recently published an eBook as part of a prelude leading towards the Argus Green Marine Fuels Asia Conference on 18 to 19 February in Singapore.

The Pre-conference content: Argus marine fuels Asia eBook features exclusive industry interviews with Microsoft, JERA, IBIA, Anglo American, Sumitomo Corporation, Hafnia, BHP, Global Maritime Forum, DS NORDEN, ADNOC Group, and Standard Chartered Bank.

It offers a peek into their thoughts on infrastructure readiness, the marine fuels shipowners are gravitating towards, LNG decarbonisation pathways, collaboration across the marine fuels value chain, and more.

The eBook is available for download through the image below:

argus media marine fuels asia ebook

The Argus Green Marine Fuels Asia Conference will be held at PARKROYAL COLLECTION Marina Bay, 6 Raffles Boulevard, Singapore 039594 on 18 to 19 February in Singapore.

Key speakers for the event include Kenneth Lim, Assistant Chief Executive (Industry & Transformation), Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA); Torben Nørgaard, Chief Technology Officer - Energy & Fuels, Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center; Jerid Soo, Assistant General Manager (Global Sustainability and ESG), Pacific International Lines; Kazuki Yamaguchi, General Manager and Head, Maritime Energy Solution, Energy Transformation Business Group, Sumitomo Corporation; and Mahua Chakravarty, Editor, Marine Fuels (Asia), Argus.

Related: Argus Media organises Green Marine Fuels Asia Conference in Singapore

 

Photo credit: Argus Media
Published: 17 January, 2024

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Biofuel

Burando Energies delivers B30 bio bunker fuel to tug “MV Bylgia” in Rotterdam

Firm said it successfully delivered ISCC-certified B30 biofuel blend, derived from renewable feedstocks, to Heerema’s Anchor Handling Tug “MV Bylgia” at Port of Rotterdam.

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Burando Energies delivers B30 bio bunker fuel to tug “MV Bylgia” in Rotterdam

Burando Energies on Thursday (16 January) announced it successfully delivered ISCC-certified biofuel to Heerema’s Anchor Handling Tug MV Bylgia at the Port of Rotterdam.

The delivered B30 biofuel blend, derived from renewable feedstocks, will help reduce carbon emissions by an estimated 25% (well-to-wake)—an impactful move in Heerema’s ongoing commitment to sustainability.

“This delivery not only reflects our commitment to offering sustainable energy solutions but also strengthens our partnership with Heerema in their green ambitions,” said Duncan Huisman, Sustainable Bunker Trader at Burando Energies. 

“We are proud to contribute to initiatives that prioritise the well-being of our planet and future generations.”

Burando Energies said it will continue to focus on innovation and sustainability, striving to provide energy solutions that drive both environmental progress and business success.

 

Photo credit: Burando Energies
Published: 17 January, 2025

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Biofuel

DNV whitepaper: Limited supply could hamper future uptake of bio bunker fuel

Long-term future of the maritime biofuel market hinges on the availability of sustainable biomass at an affordable level, as well as competition with other sectors, says Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime.

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dnv Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen

Key biofuels like FAME and HVO have great potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and supporting compliance with maritime regulations, but their benefits to the industry could be constrained by limited supply in the future, according to DNV’s latest white paper Biofuels in Shipping, published on Thursday (16 January). 

Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime at DNV, said: “Biofuels present a promising decarbonization option for shipowners, and it's encouraging to see steady growth in the number of bunkering ports offering biofuels in recent years.”

“However, the long-term future of the maritime biofuel market hinges on the availability of sustainable biomass at an affordable level, as well as competition with other sectors.”

“Shipowners should, therefore, aim to explore energy efficiency measures and alternative fuels as part of their wider decarbonization strategies, while utilizing biofuels where they are available and affordable.”

In 2023, the maritime sector consumed just 0.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of liquid biofuels, representing a mere 0.6% of global liquid biofuel supply and 0.3% of shipping’s total energy use, highlighting the limited uptake of biofuels in shipping today compared to other sectors. 

Despite this, biofuel holds significant potential for reducing GHG emissions and achieving compliance with regulatory frameworks, such as CII, EU ETS, and FuelEU Maritime. To realise these benefits, the biofuels used must meet stringent sustainability and GHG savings requirements, verified through a Proof of Sustainability (PoS) or similar document.

Drawing on in-depth interviews and written surveys of eight biofuel suppliers and 12 shipping companies, the paper identified more than 60 locations which have already been proven to have carried out biofuel bunkering operations since 2015. The report estimates that the ports of Singapore and Rotterdam accounted for about half of all biofuels supply to shipping in 2023.

The majority of biofuel consumption in shipping occurs through fuel blends, combining biofuels like FAME and HVO, the most established biofuels for maritime use, with conventional oil-based fuels. 

The DNV white paper contains an overview of the main technical and operational considerations for use of biofuel as a ‘drop-in’ fuel. This includes key recommendations to shipowners such as verifying fuel quality, compatibility with onboard systems, and monitoring performance.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, Consultant in Maritime Environmental Technology at DNV and Lead Author of Biofuels in Shipping, said: “The technical compatibility of key marine biofuels like FAME and HVO varies from ship to ship, making it essential to assess each case individually.”

“Doing so will ensure that the fuel specification and quality are compatible with their intended application, minimizing the risk of damage to equipment and loss of power onboard the vessel.”

Note: The full DNV report titled ‘Biofuels in Shipping’ can be found here.

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 17 January, 2025

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