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Alternative Fuels

DNV updates ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ report with 24 marine fuel transition scenarios

‘We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions,’ states lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.




T4 Ind 424 IMO ambitions tcm71 232161

Classification society DNV on Tuesday (11 October) said its Maritime Forecast to 2050 report has utilised an enhanced GHG Pathway Model to build and run 24 scenarios quantifying trends in the bunker fuel transition ahead for the shipping sector.

“Our 6th Maritime Forecast to 2050 report (the report) uses an enhanced version of our GHG Pathway Model to build and run an updated portfolio of scenarios to explore the fuel transition ahead,” said Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.

“We show that the future fuel mix is highly dependent on underlying assumptions, notably regarding fuel prices and policy ambitions. Shipowners therefore need transition plans that reflect the uncertain future, and flexible fuel solutions that provide robustness and reduce carbon risk.”

T2 Ind 424 List of scenarios tcm71 232158

Researchers have applied six “fuel family” variations, simulating the availability of: sustainable biomass to produce biofuels (e.g. bio-MGO); renewable electricity to produce electrofuels (e.g. e-MGO); and fossil fuels with CCS (i.e. “blue” fuels). For each of these three fuel families, we assign a “High” or “Very high” fuel-price advantage to one fuel family over the others on a basis described in the report.

They explore three cost variations for specific bunker fuel types, in which changes in the relative cost differences between fuels within each family are explored (as described fully in the report).

T3 Ind 424 Energy mix in 2050 tcm71 232160

“In most of our scenarios, around 5% of the energy use in 2030 is from carbon-neutral fuels. Under IMO ambitions, this grows to around 20% in 2040, depending on the scenario. In Decarbonization by 2050, the share of carbon-neutral fuels reaches 40% to 50% in 2040,” Ovrum explains.

Some carbon-neutral fuels dominate the 2050 energy mix in at least one scenario, namely bio-MGO and e-MGO, bio-LNG, blue ammonia and e-ammonia, and bio-methanol.

Among carbon-neutral fuels, the share of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels (bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG, e-LNG) is greater in IMO ambitions scenarios than in Decarbonization by 2050 scenarios.

Collaboration is key to alternative fuels availability

“The initial availability in selected regions has ripple effects beyond their borders, and we have seen this pattern before in the uptake of LNG and batteries in shipping,” recalls Ovrum. “We expect similar effects for other carbon-neutral fuels assigned favourable conditions in the scenario design.”

Driven by procurement requirements from governments, uptake of LNG and batteries was assisted by infrastructure first being developed locally, then nationally, then regionally and globally, adds Ovrum.

It illustrates that the public sector can be an important enabler for phasing in new low-emission technology in shipping, he stressed. “The challenges and opportunities illustrated in our modelling can only be solved by strong alliances among the sector’s stakeholders and with other industries competing for carbon-neutral fuels.”

Related: DNV urges cross-industry collaboration to overcome ‘ultimate hurdle’ of fuel availability
Related: DNV: Hydrogen at risk of being the great missed opportunity of the energy transition
Related: DNV introduces ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model helps shipowners navigate newbuild dilemmas
Related: DNV: Green ammonia a ‘key ingredient’ to decarbonise maritime industry
Related: DNV selected to lead ‘pioneering’ ammonia bunkering safety study in Singapore
Related: DNV Decarbonisation Insights: Singapore’s pathway to Net Zero and the role of Ammonia

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 11 October, 2022

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Singapore: EPS orders ammonia, LNG dual-fuel vessels from China

EPS signed one contract for a series of ammonia dual-fuel bulk carriers with CSSC Beihai Shipbuilding and another for a series of LNG dual-fuel oil tankers with CSSC Guangzhou Shipbuilding International.






Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) on Wednesday (28 February) said it signed two new contract orders in a signing ceremony in Shanghai, one for a series of ammonia dual-fuel bulk carriers with CSSC Beihai Shipbuilding and another for a series of LNG dual-fuel oil tankers with CSSC Guangzhou Shipbuilding International. 

The contracts signed cover four 210,000 dwt ammonia dual-fuel bulk carriers and two 111,000 dwt LNG dual-fuel LR2 oil tankers, expanding our fleet of green vessels on water. 

“These are pivotal for EPS, testament to our continued commitment towards the decarbonisation of shipping,” EPS said in a social media post.

Manifold Times recently reported EPS signing a contract for its first ever wind-assisted propulsion system, partnering with bound4blue to install three 22-metre eSAILs® onboard the Pacific Sentinel

The turnkey ‘suction sail’ technology, which drags air across an aerodynamic surface to generate exceptional propulsive efficiency, will be fitted later this year, helping the 183-metre, 50,000 DWT oil and chemical tanker reduce overall energy consumption by approximately 10%, depending on vessel routing.

Related: Singapore: EPS orders its first wind-assisted propulsion system for tanker


Photo credit: Eastern Pacific Shipping
Published: 1 March 2024

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LNG Bunkering

Malaysia: Port of Tanjung Pelepas completes first LNG bunkering operation

Landmark event involved the CMA CGM Monaco, a 14,024 TEUs containership operated by French shipping giant CMA CGM.






Port of Tanjung Pelepas Sdn Bhd (PTP), a joint venture between MMC Group and APM Terminals, on Wednesday (28 February) announced a significant milestone with the successful completion of its first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) bunkering operation. 

The landmark event involved the CMA CGM Monaco, a 14,024 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) capacity containership operated by French shipping giant, CMA CGM.

Tan Sri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh, Chairman of PTP in a statement remarked this latest milestone demonstrates PTP’s commitment to continuously enhance its competitive advantages in an increasingly competitive global market.

“The successful completion of our first LNG bunkering operation also underscores our unwavering commitment to sustainability and environmental leadership. We are proud to partner with Petronas Trading Corporation Sendirian Berhad (PETCO) and CMA CGM on this initiative and showcase PTP’s capabilities as a leading facilitator of clean and efficient maritime operations.”

“This milestone paves the way for further growth in LNG bunkering at PTP, contributing significantly to the decarbonisation of the maritime industry.”

Commenting on this achievement, Mark Hardiman, Chief Executive Officer of PTP stated this latest milestone further highlights PTP’s position as the largest transshipment hub terminal in Malaysia.

“In preparation for the LNG bunkering operation, PTP worked closely since March 2022 with PETCO and CMA CGM, as well as with various other related government agencies to organise table-top exercises (TTX) and workshops, before carrying out the deployment exercise.”

“The success of the bunkering operation is a result of the seamless collaboration and preparations involving rigorous safety procedures through in-depth operational and risk assessments, modelling, and validation. We thank PETCO, CMA CGM all other involved parties for their joint efforts in operationalising the bunkering capability and we welcome partners to work with us to accelerate maritime decarbonisation,” said Hardiman.

Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) is Malaysia’s largest transshipment hub with the capacity to handle 13 million TEUs annually. The port delivers reliable, efficient, and advanced services to major shipping lines and box operators, providing shippers in Malaysia and abroad with extensive connectivity to the global market. PTP is currently ranked 15th among the world top container ports.


Photo credit: Port of Tanjung Pelepas
Published: 1 March 2024

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Alternative Fuels

Wallenius Wilhelmsen to order four additional methanol DF PCTCs

Newbuilds will also be ammonia-ready and able to be converted as soon as ammonia becomes available in a safe and secure way.





Wallenius Wilhelmsen PCTC order

Roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro) shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen on Tuesday (27 February) declared options to build four additional next-generation Shaper Class pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) vessels.

The 9,300 CEU methanol dual fuel vessels can utilise alternative fuel sources, such as methanol, upon delivery. They will also be ammonia-ready and able to be converted as soon as ammonia becomes available in a safe and secure way.

“Together with our customers we are committed to further shaping our industry and accelerating towards net zero. These new vessels are a vital part of that journey,” says Xavier Leroi, EVP & COO Shipping Services.

This latest commitment brings the total number of Shaper Class vessels currently on order with Jinling Shipyard (Jiangsu) to eight. Wallenius Wilhelmsen also retains further options.

The first of the Shaper Class vessels already ordered are expected to be delivered in the second half of 2026. The four additional vessels under the declared options will be delivered between May and November 2027.


Photo credit: Wallenius Wilhelmsen
Published: 1 March 2024

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