The expected outcomes of the evaluation will support the establishment of regulatory sandboxes for pilots and demonstration projects, with a view of enabling ammonia bunkering in the future.

So, how viable is ammonia and is it safe enough for widespread use as a marine fuel in Singapore, or anywhere, for that matter?

From DNV’s own studies and from pilot programmes conducted in Europe in particular, ammonia comes clean as an ideal marine fuel for long-haul shipping, as part of a wider mix of fuel options.

As a global organisation headquartered in Norway – recognised as the world’s leading classification society and respected advisor to the maritime industry – DNV is well positioned to weigh up all the clean and green fuel options which could take their place, alongside LNG, and even replace it one day, as an alternative shipping fuel, as outlined in detail in DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050.⁵

Not only does ammonia burn CO₂-free, like hydrogen, but it has a higher energy density and is easier to store and transport, as it doesn’t require cryogenic – or ultra-cool – storage.

As ammonia has advantages over the direct use of hydrogen for long-distance shipping, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states in its Net Zero Emissions Scenario that ammonia could meet around 45 percent of global shipping fuel demand. IEA also sees green ammonia as the lowest cost option as an alternative fuel for the future (by 2050).⁶

An evaluation of a Newcastlemax bulk carrier newbuild by DNV experts has shown that ammonia would likely be the cheapest carbon-neutral fuel for this ship type under certain scenarios – adding that Fuel Ready (ammonia) and dual-fuel designs are becoming valid options for shipowners already now.⁷

DNV has also been involved in ammonia trials with Color Line in Norway, as part of the Green Shipping Programme (GSP), which found that ammonia can be safely deployed even in passenger vessels, since no “incomprehensible technical or safety barriers” could be identified.⁸

After exploring all potential inhibiting factors for a widespread adoption of ammonia as a maritime fuel for the future, DNV has come up with some convincing answers:

• What about the cost of green ammonia?
  DNV would expect a higher cost initially for ammonia compared to LNG or hydrogen. But as with any green or clean energy being introduced, there are higher costs until production and use is scaled up sufficiently. If we look at the experience with solar and wind energy to produce electricity on land or on water, we see that initially it was very expensive, but now solar and wind are on price parity with any other sources of energy, even coal.
• What about safety factors?
  While ammonia’s toxicity is well known, trials in Europe have shown it can be safely stored and used on board vessels of all types, whether carrying passengers or freight. DNV has not only produced an “Ammonia as a Marine Fuel Safety Handbook” for the GSP but also developed Gas Fuelled ammonia class rules, and a Fuel Ready notation which allows later fuel retrofits. DNV further invests heavily in ammonia R&D and runs related HAZID workshops with customers and industry stakeholders.⁹
• Where is it sourced?
  While ammonia is currently going through marine fuel trials in Europe and Japan, DNV sees that one of the best Asia Pacific sources for green ammonia (and/or green hydrogen) could be Australia, as the country is acknowledged as the world’s leading LNG exporter. Green ammonia can be produced from green hydrogen, which is a known renewable energy source. Australia already has plans for major green hydrogen plants. In addition, ammonia is widely used there in agriculture, most commonly as a fertiliser.
• What about supply chain challenges?
  DNV forecasts that ammonia can be safely shipped, stored and used on vessels wherever they operate. They could be fuelled in Europe, Australia, Japan, Singapore or elsewhere in Asia. The classification society doesn’t foresee any limit to the amount of ammonia that could be produced in time, but of course it would be wise for Singapore to not just rely on one source for its ammonia supply chain.
• What about attaining scale in the production of ammonia?
  Almost all ammonia in use today is made from hydrocarbons, so production of clean and green ammonia definitely needs to scale up considerably to decarbonise the shipping industry’s fuel supply. Green ammonia could well become one of the predominant marine fuels in the future. It can be produced – at scale – by electrolysis, powered by renewables, ideally green hydrogen. There are a number of trials under way in Europe and Japan, so it’s feasible to expect that in four to five years’ time, the maritime industry will be in a position to start using ammonia as a marine fuel, alongside LNG or hydrogen.Already ship engines are being designed and built by Wärtsila and MAN, which will be able to be fuelled by ammonia and LNG. Wärtsila anticipates having an engine concept capable of operating fully on ammonia in 2023.¹⁰
• What about setting standards for ammonia’s maritime use?
  As DNV is actively involved in driving business forward through the development of standards, specifications and guidelines, it is working with others inside and outside themaritime industry to collaborate on research and technical evaluation of ammonia – and other potential marine fuels – to ensure that it can be safely deployed on vessels around the world. For more information see the DNV white paper on “Ammonia as a marine fuel”.¹¹

As always there are challenges, but also considerable opportunities, points out Dr Osman’s colleague Linda Sigrid Hammer, the lead author of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050:

“Shipowners need strategies and practical solutions to stay compliant and commercially competitive, while meeting regulatory and stakeholder requirements for decarbonising vessel and fleet operations. Correctly assessing the technology, fuel and energy production/infrastructure landscape can enable owners to comply with prescribed or even more ambitious carbon reduction trajectories.”¹²

Could green ammonia be “the major disrupter” for the maritime industry, as it embarks on its decarbonisation journey to attain Net Zero?

While increasingly convinced of the viability of green ammonia, DNV sees it as but one of a range of alternative fuels and strategies which need to be put to the test.

It’s equally important to keep in mind a number of essential measures towards maritime industry decarbonisation, including greater energy efficiency, fuel flexibility and weighing up all Fuel Ready solutions. Hence, the last word must go to Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, the CEO of DNV Maritime:

“By working together as an industry (and beyond), embracing fuel flexibility and consulting with expert partners, such as class, shipping can, and indeed must, reach its destination. The true fuel of the future is collaboration.”¹³