With vessels operating for 25 to 30 years and only around 4% of the fleet renewed annually, newbuild decisions made over the coming decade will establish much of the engine capacity available in 2050, Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation said on Thursday (17 September). 

Yet having the capacity to consume a new fuel does not guarantee its uptake. Dual-fuel engines allow shipowners to switch between conventional fuels and the selected new fuel as economics and regulations evolve; continued fuel competitiveness is therefore critical to what vessels ultimately consume.

These are among the findings of Navigating the maritime fuel transition: How fuel economics, regulations, and fleet decisions shape the future bunkering landscape, based on a model jointly developed by the GCMD and Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The model illustrates this dynamic in its base scenario. With the Tier-2 penalty under the IMO Net-Zero Framework held at USD 380/tCO2e through 2050, methanol dual-fuel engines account for around 10% of fleet engine capacity in 2050, but methanol represents just 2% of fleet energy consumption. With conventional fuels remaining more economical under this regulatory regime, methanol dual-fuel vessels continue to operate on fuels cheaper than methanol (Figure 1).

A global carbon price of USD 700/tCO2e materially changes the transition

The base scenario demonstrates how fuel economics can limit uptake even when vessels have the capacity to use new fuels. This picture changes if the IMO Tier-2 penalty rises to USD 700/tCO2e by 2050, at which point new fuels, including dropins, reach approximately 61% of fleet energy consumption (Figure 1).

By contrast, EU regulations alone will not drive a marked global shift, as they cover only around 20% of international shipping’s energy demand.

Overall cost of using e-methanol and e-ammonia is near parity

While a stronger global carbon price can accelerate the shift towards new fuels, the model does not point to a clear cost winner between e-methanol and e-ammonia.

E-ammonia’s production cost advantage is largely offset by higher logistics costs arising from its toxicity, including specialised crew training, larger exclusion zones, and more complex bunkering. As a result, the overall cost (Figure 2) of using e-ammonia and e-methanol is near parity through to 2050.

Professor Lynn Loo, CEO of GCMD, said: “Many vessels ordered over the coming decade will still be operating in 2050. Shipowners are therefore making long-lived engine choices before the relative economics of future fuels are clear. 

“Our modelling puts into perspective just how difficult closing the cost gap between new and conventional fuels will be. The carbon price required to close this gap is substantial. And achieving it will be particularly challenging in today’s geopolitical environment. Understanding the signposts that could change these economics will be critical to the decisions the industry makes today.”

Anand Veeraraghavan, Managing Director & Senior Partner at BCG, said: “The maritime fuel transition is being shaped as much by policy and cost uncertainty as by technology readiness. 

“Rather than offer a single prediction, our approach with GCMD maps how sensitive each fuel pathway’s competitive position is to a handful of critical variables — policy scenarios, key cost drivers, and potential restrictions. Our hope is that this gives shipowners, fuel suppliers, port operators, and infrastructure investors a practical tool to stress-test their own fuel strategies as conditions change.”

Photo credit: Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation
Published: 18 September, 2026

Swiss marine power company WinGD on Thursday (10 September) said it has won a contract that will give Polaris Shipping true fuel flexibility for its future Newcastlemax fleet with an order of four X72DF-M-1.0 engines that can operate on methanol and ethanol. 

The ability to operate on either fuel gives Polaris Shipping greater flexibility to respond to changes in fuel availability, pricing and regulatory requirements over the vessels’ operating lives and is a key benefit of WinGD’s alcohol-fuel engine platform.

The WinGD engines will power four 210,000 DWT Ore carriers being built for Polaris Shipping at Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co in China, with delivery scheduled for 2031. 

Dr. Carmelo Cartalemi, Head of Strategic Marketing, WinGD, said “Shipowners are looking for flexible solutions to help them meet their decarbonisation goals without compromising on reliability, safety or financial stability. 

“Our alcohol-fuel engine platform enables ships to operate on either ethanol or methanol, giving shipowners and managers the option to select the fuel that best fits their operational and commercial requirements. With fuel markets and regulations continuing to evolve, that flexibility can be a valuable asset over the lifetime of a vessel.”

The X72DF-M1.0 can run on methanol and ethanol. This provides flexibility between the two fuels, while maintaining compliance with the regulatory requirements applicable to both fuels.

WinGD will also provide dedicated service and lifecycle support for the new alcohol fuels, helping shipowners and operators build familiarity with the technology, optimise operation and maintenance, and adopt methanol and ethanol propulsion in a safe and economically sustainable way

Polaris Shipping, said: “Fuel availability and economics will continue to evolve over the lifetime of these vessels. Selecting an engine platform that gives us access to both methanol and ethanol means we can provide to our charter a greater choice in how the ships are operated in the future, rather than having to predict today which fuel will be most competitive in the years ahead. 

“We’re investing for the long-term, and this engine choice gives us the confidence to do that.”

The order adds to WinGD orderbook of alternative fuel engine technology, which now spans LNG, methanol, ethanol and ammonia. Beihai Shipyard is also working with WinGD on the installation of its ammonia-fuelled engine for CMB TECH’s newbuild 210,000 dwt dry bulk carriers. 

Photo credit: WinGD
Published: 11 September, 2026

Mitsui E&S on Thursday (20 August) said it has completed the commercialisation of large ammonia dual-fuel marine engines and ammonia fuel supply systems (AFSS).

As the only company in Japan manufacturing both ammonia dual fuel engines and AFSS, the company said it has established a supply framework for marine propulsion systems aimed at the practical implementation of ammonia-fuelled vessels.

“While ammonia holds promise as a next-generation fuel that emits no carbon dioxide during combustion, it is difficult to ignite and poses risks related to toxicity and corrosiveness; therefore, ensuring safety, reliability, and environmental performance is crucial for its practical implementation in society,” it said. 

In February, Mitsui E&S conducted land-based tests involving the integrated operation of the Ammonia dual fuel engine MITSUI-Everllence B&W 7S60ME-C10.5-LGIA-HPSCR and the AFSS, witnessed by ClassNK (Nippon Kaiji Kyokai), and verified their performance. 

Following the completion of the tests and the subsequent review, Mitsui E&S confirmed the completion of onshore testing in accordance with classification society rules and verified compliance with International Maritime Organization (IMO) NOx regulations through NOx certification. 

“Consequently, we have finalised the commercialisation of the ammonia dual fuel engines and the AFSS and are now able to supply it for actual vessels,” it added. 

Mitsui E&S said it has already decided to expand its land-based testing facilities for AFSS compatible with both Everllence and WinGD licensed engines. 

“In conjunction with this, we will establish a mass-production system for both the engines and the AFSS to meet the anticipated rise in demand,” it said. 

Mitsui E&S added the company is expanding its engine lineup to accommodate a diverse range of next-generation marine fuels, including ammonia, by offering ammonia-fuelled engines and AFSS as an integrated package.

Photo credit: Mitsui E&S
Published: 24 August, 2026