Classification society DNV on Thursday (24 September) released a new article summarizing findings of its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, exploring how future scenarios could affect marine fuel demand, technology uptake, fleet investments, and competitiveness: 

Shipping’s energy transition has entered a new phase. The technology options are increasingly well understood. LNG, methanol, biofuels, wind-assisted propulsion, and emerging ammonia solutions are no longer concepts but commercial realities. Yet despite this progress, shipowners face a more difficult challenge than ever: making investment decisions amid unprecedented regulatory uncertainty.

The 2026 edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 argues that uncertainty itself is now becoming one of the most important drivers of fleet strategy. 

“Decisions taken today on vessel design, retrofits, and fuel capability will determine competitiveness for decades, while the outcome of ongoing regulatory negotiations could significantly reshape the economics of shipping’s energy transition,” says Øyvind Sekkesæter, Senior Consultant at DNV and lead author of this year’s report. “Maritime Forecast to 2050 aims to assist that decision-making with our latest core insights and case study examples.”

Four regulatory scenarios could shape shipping very differently

This year’s Maritime Forecast takes a scenario-based approach, presenting four possible regulatory futures for shipping. These range from the full adoption of IMO’s initially approved Net-Zero Framework (NZF) to its rejection and prolonged political gridlock, while also exploring several intermediate outcomes, including a delayed or revised NZF and scenarios where regional regulations play a more prominent role in driving decarbonization. Rather than predicting which outcome is most likely, the scenarios illustrate how different regulatory futures could affect fuel demand, energy-efficiency uptake, investment signals, and fleet competitiveness.

Stronger global regulation accelerates demand for low-GHG fuels and increases the attractiveness of energy-efficiency measures, while the absence of such regulation slows market development. The result is a transition whose pace may vary significantly depending on future policy decisions.

“For shipowners, this means the challenge is no longer identifying a single fuel pathway that fits the operational profile of their fleet. Instead, it is preparing fleets that remain competitive across multiple possible futures,” Sekkesæter concludes.

Tapping the fleet’s efficiency potential

Fully realizing the fleet’s energy-saving potential requires improvements not only to newbuilds but also to existing ships through retrofits.

Installing energy-saving devices during scheduled dry-docking can be a highly cost-effective decarbonization strategy, as illustrated by the Maritime Forecast’s case study of a hypothetical 15-year-old 5,000 TEU containership (built in 2013).

This envisages USD 2.35 million being invested to retrofit the ship with hydrodynamic enhancements including a bow retrofit, propeller upgrade, and a propeller boss cap fin.

The vessel can achieve estimated fuel savings of around 16% under the modelling assumptions. Evaluating the investment under three price scenarios for low sulphur heavy fuel oil (LSHFO) results in payback periods from 1.4 years to 4.2 years.

Note: The full Maritime Impact article by DNV can be found here. 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 25 September, 2026

Stena Line on Wednesday (23 September) said it is renewing its fleet and has placed an order for two new hybrid E-Flexer ferries, scheduled to enter service in 2030.

Both vessels will be built at the China Merchants Industry Weihai Shipyard in China, which has so far built 15 E-Flexers.

The vessels will feature the latest hybrid propulsion technology, allowing them to operate on both conventional fuel and electricity. 

They will also be prepared for conversion to 100% electric operation once the necessary charging infrastructure is in place.

The two RoPax ferries will have capacity for 1,500 passengers and 2,750 lane metres of freight. Designed as day ferries, they are intended to operate on the Gothenburg–Frederikshavn route.

The two new vessels will become the sixth and seventh E-Flexers in Stena Line’s fleet. The first entered service in 2019, and today three E-Flexers operate on the Irish Sea and two between Sweden and Poland.

“This is a historic investment for Stena Line, giving us the opportunity to take further steps towards the sustainable modernisation of our fleet,” said Niclas Mårtensson, CEO of Stena Line.

“The two new ferries will strengthen our customer offering by taking the travel experience to a new level. At the same time, we are future-proofing our own CO₂ reduction targets while preparing for the stricter environmental requirements ahead.”

The vessels currently operating on Stena Line’s Gothenburg–Frederikshavn route, Stena Danica and Stena Jutlandica, have served the route for many years. Stena Danica entered service on the route as early as 1984, while Stena Jutlandica followed in 1996.

Photo credit: Stena Line
Published: 25 September, 2026

Höegh Autoliners on Tuesday (22 September) said it has formally signed a contract with China Merchants Group (CMG) for six additional Aurora class pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). 

The contract was signed during a high-level meeting in Naples attended by senior representatives from both companies, including Miao Jianmin, Chairman of China Merchants Group. Chair of Höegh Autoliners, Leif O. Høegh, and Andreas Enger, CEO of Höegh Autoliners.

The six additional dual-fuel LNG and zero-carbon-ready vessels will be built by China Merchants Heavy Industry (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. (CMHI) and delivered between 2029 and 2031. 

With 18 Aurora Class vessels in the programme, Höegh Autoliners is building the fleet needed for a zero- emission future and setting the pace for the transformation of deep-sea shipping.

The Aurora Class vessels can carry up to 9,100 cars and reduce carbon emissions per transported car by up to 58 per cent compared with conventional PCTCs. They have DNV’s ammonia-ready and methanol-ready notations and are designed to be converted to run on future zero-carbon fuels.

Leif O. Høegh, Chair of the Board of Directors of Höegh Autoliners, said: “For nearly 100 years, we have developed, adapted and led the way through major changes in shipping. It is in our DNA to keep moving and challenge what is possible. This signing continues that story. We are investing in the vessels that will define our fleet for decades and help move our industry towards zero emissions.”

Andreas Enger, CEO of Höegh Autoliners, said: “This is not just another vessel-building agreement. It is a statement about the future of deep-sea shipping and the role we intend to play in shaping it. The Aurora Class is at the heart of our fleet renewal and our path to a sustainable future. By expanding the programme to 18 vessels, we are securing efficient, flexible and future-ready capacity while setting the pace towards zero-emission operations.”

Miao Jianmin, Chairman of China Merchants Group, said: “Höegh Autoliners is a pioneer in international shipping and will celebrate its 100th anniversary next year. We would like to offer our congratulations in advance! Over the past century, Höegh Autoliners has achieved remarkable development and has grown into a leading company in the global RoRo shipping sector. We truly admire what you have accomplished.”

Photo credit: Höegh Autoliners
Published: 24 September, 2026