Rystad Energy: OPEC+ announces crude production increase following US-Israel strikes on Iran

Advisory, research and energy intelligence company Rystad Energy on Sunday (1 March) released an oil market update on OPEC+ increasing its crude oil production target amid heightened Middle East geopolitical risk:

OPEC+ has decided to increase its crude oil production target by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk as conflict in the Middle East escalated rapidly over the weekend.

Oil markets will enter the new week facing a materially higher risk of supply disruption following the sharp escalation on Saturday, which included direct military confrontation between key regional actors and retaliatory strikes across the Persian Gulf region.

Approximately 15 million bpd of crude oil transits the Strait of Hormuz, representing close to 30% of global seaborne crude trade.

This makes it the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

Any sustained disruption, formal or de facto, would remove a substantial portion of globally traded crude from the market.

Rystad Energy’s oil market update from Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis: 

“Weekend events in the Middle East have had significant humanitarian impacts, in addition to fundamentally reframing global markets.

What began as a widely anticipated 137,000 bpd increase, in line with OPEC+’s cautious unwinding of cuts, quickly became far more consequential as tensions in Iran drew attention to critical Middle Eastern export infrastructure the world relies on.

The group ultimately raised output beyond that initial expectation but stopped short of a more forceful increase, underscoring the tightrope it is walking between responding to near-term geopolitical risk and avoiding oversupply later this year.

The bigger issue is physical reality: roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper.

If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets.”

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has already been increasing exports in recent weeks, with shipments reaching their highest level in three years, indicating that part of the supply adjustment was already underway ahead of the formal decision.

In absolute terms, 206,000 bpd is small relative to global demand of more than 100 million bpd – on its own, it does not materially change the balance.

The decision is therefore more about signaling than about volume.

OPEC+ is showing it is prepared to use spare capacity if needed, but it is not willing to open the taps aggressively at this stage.

This also underlines that OPEC+ needs to manage spare capacity carefully.

Effective spare capacity currently stands at around 3.5 million bpd – a critical buffer that cannot be deployed too quickly without reducing the group’s ability to respond to a larger disruption.

Importantly, this increase is unlikely to calm markets in the immediate term.

Price direction on Monday will depend far more on developments in the Gulf and the status of transit flows than on a 206,000-bpd adjustment to production targets.

Photo credit: Zbynek Burival on Unsplash
Published: 2 March, 2026