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Integr8 on 2025 in review: A cheerful outlook for bunker buyers

Oil and bunker prices are expected to remain relatively low in 2026 unless there is a significant shift, such as heightened geopolitical risk or a change in OPEC+ strategy, according to Steve Christy.

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Integr8 on 2025 in review: A cheerful outlook for bunker buyers

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
steve.christy@integr8fuels.com    

18 December 2025

2025 proves to be a good year for bunker buyers

As the year draws to a close, journals, newspapers, and online outlets reflect on the events of the past 12 months. We are adding our own review to that list—but with a difference. Ours is a good-news story for bunker buyers, highlighting a ‘cost saving’ of more than 25% over the past year.

VLSFO buyers in Singapore started the year paying around $585/mt, now they are paying around $430/mt! It’s the same story in Rotterdam and Fujairah (among other ports); VLSFO prices are down by some $150/mt since January.

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We can also repeat the same story for HSFO buyers, with a bit more added! Prices here are down by 30%. Singapore buyers have seen prices fall from $500/mt to 350/mt, and for the past seven months they have paid more-or-less the same as buyers in Rotterdam.

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HSFO prices in Fujairah also fell by a similar amount. This means that since the start of the year there has been a price fall of some $150/mt for Singapore VLSFO and HSFO, Fujairah VLSFO and HSFO and Rotterdam VLSFO. The only price to ‘fall short’ was for Rotterdam HSFO, but this still fell by $135/mt, and in percentage terms this drop was close to other main international bunker markets.

It’s usually fundamentals versus geopolitics, and fundamentals are winning

Throughout the year we have highlighted and analysed the two main (and conflicting) issues for our business, weakening oil fundamentals versus wars/heightened geopolitical risks. Whether the peace process in Gaza can be finalised, and an end to the war in Ukraine can be achieved, the perceived geopolitical risks today are far lower than they were earlier in the year. This means the fundamentals have taken over as the main industry price driver; and the fundamentals are weak.

The drift down in prices over the past six months (as shown in both graphs) represents these shifts in market sentiment towards the more bearish view.

Where we are today

This bearish overhang is even more pronounced at the moment. Products markets have eased as the seasonal refinery maintenance programs come to an end, and crude markets have been weakened by increasing volumes of OPEC+ production and reports of a significant increase in the volumes of crude oil onboard tankers at sea. Despite tightening sanctions against Russia and US actions against Venezuela, there are no real concerns about oil supply today.

The general view is that we are still looking at an even bigger oil surplus next year. As evidence of this, Brent front month futures prices have fallen by $3/bbl in less than two weeks, to just $60/bbl.

Where will we be next year?

Many analysts still see relatively strong supply gains next year. This is despite OPEC+ recently announcing they would continue to unwind the previous production cutbacks and raise output in December, but then hold-off any increases during the first quarter of next year.

The analysts’ view of a supply-side boost next year is based on planned increases in crude output from Brazil and Guyana, along with the further gains in OPEC+ production. Assuming these supply increases are achieved, the focus then becomes ‘how much will oil demand grow by next year, and where will the balance lie?’.

It is here there are some divergent views. OPEC is looking at a reasonably strong level of demand growth in 2026 (at plus 1.4 million b/d), and so is projecting a relatively balanced market outlook. On this basis prices would be supported, and OPEC+ could continue to unwind cutbacks and increase production from the second quarter onwards. Some of the oil majors appear to be tending towards this view as well.

However, the IEA, EIA and many analysts are not as positive on oil demand growth and the overall oil balance. In this case oil prices are likely to remain close to current levels, or even fall. This is the view we have highlighted over a number of our reports this year.

A picture to conclude

To summarise, a few analysts are towards the bullish side, but most see a growing oil surplus running into next year and Brent prices typically in the $55-62/bbl range.

The graph below illustrates some of these key findings. Brent has already fallen from $78/bbl to $60/bbl this year, and the current forward curve is extremely flat at close to $60/bbl. Although the forward curve is not a forecast, it does show the level at which people are prepared to trade; and Brent trading positions over the next 12 months are not very far away from current levels.

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Many of the published Brent price forecast for next year are in the $55-60/bbl range, and we have highlighted the US EIA’s forecast here, as one of the lower ones. The other line highlighted is the result of Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts, giving an annual average Brent price of $62/bbl for next year. Clearly as an average, some participants will be higher than $62/bbl, and some lower, but the headline news story is one of low oil prices in 2026.

Taking the simplified view

From all the analysis, it looks like oil (and bunker) prices will be ‘low’ next year unless there we see something dramatic, like far greater geopolitical risks or a change in OPEC+ strategy to cut production and drive prices (and revenues) higher.

All we can do is reflect on the price drop this year and look out for any deflection away from a potential growing oil surplus and low prices next year.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 5 January, 2026

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Biofuel

BHP and GCMD trial multi-feedstock B100 bio bunker fuel on bulk carrier

Bio-blend in the BHP and GCMD pilot is being used on a BHP-chartered bulk carrier “Berge Lyngor”, which was bunkered in Singapore in early May.

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BHP and GCMD trial multi-feedstock B100 bio bunker fuel on bulk carrier

BHP and the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) on Wednesday (3 June) said they have blended biofuels from two distinct feedstocks—used cooking oil and waste animal fats —and introduced the lower-emissions marine fuel into a BHP-chartered bulk carrier as part of a pilot project.

The bio-blend in the BHP and GCMD pilot is being used on a BHP-chartered bulk carrier Berge Lyngor, owned and operated by Berge Bulk, transporting BHP iron ore from Western Australia to China. When run on bio-blend, the vessel has the potential to reduce well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 79 per cent per voyage compared to sailing on very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).

The vessel bunkered in Singapore in early May with a B100 bio-blend comprising 50 percent tallow-derived biodiesel, sourced and supplied by HAMR Energy, and 50 per cent used cooking oil (UCOME) supplied by Mitsui & Co Energy Trading Singapore (METS).

Mitsui also blended the fuel and Dan-Bunkering coordinated and executed the bunkering operation, which was performed by Global Energy’s barge MT Maple.

The BHP and GCMD pilot will assess how biofuels from multiple feedstocks can be blended, handled, and introduced under real-world operating conditions using existing used cooking oil bunkering infrastructure.

At the same time, insights from this pilot will help identify solutions to challenges related to fuel quality, handling, traceability, and onboard vessel performance.

Biofuels for global shipping today rely heavily on used cooking oil – a feedstock whose availability is approaching its projected limits. Biofuel from waste animal fats presents a promising option to expand the supply of lower-emissions marine fuels.

The outcomes of the pilot are expected to shed light on the practical steps to integrate biofuel blends from different feedstocks into existing supply chains. The diversity of biofuels will provide shipowners and operators with greater flexibility to optimise fuel procurement based on cost, availability, and lifecycle emissions performance.

Biofuels derived from different feedstocks can exhibit varying properties that may impact operations, including potential corrosion from oxidation, fuel system clogging caused by wax formation, which this pilot aims to assess.

The pilot will trace and verify the biofuel blend’s integrity aimed at bolstering confidence in emissions reductions reporting. The pilot will also provide insights into how robust tracing can support future marine fuel supply chains where biofuels from multiple feedstocks with varying lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions footprints are blended together.

This project is co-funded by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore under the Maritime Innovation and Technology Fund (MINT).

 

Photo credit: Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation
Published: 3 June, 2026

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Biofuel

NYK starts one-year B100 bio bunker fuel trial on car carrier

In this trial, NYK will operate a car carrier continuously on B100 for one year to evaluate the impact on engines, fuel supply systems, and operational practices.

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NYK starts one-year B100 bio bunker fuel trial on car carrier

Japanese shipping firm NYK on Tuesday (2 June) said it has commenced a one-year long-term trial involving the continuous use of 100% biofuel (B100) on an NYK-operated car carrier. 

In this trial, NYK will operate a car carrier continuously on B100 for one year to evaluate the impact on engines, fuel supply systems, and operational practices. High-purity biofuels such as B100 are known to be susceptible to degradation from oxygen, light, and heat, raising concerns about the stability of such fuels during long-term use.

In this trial, the biofuel primarily comprises FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) derived from used cooking oil and similar feedstocks.

The initiative is designed to evaluate the fuel’s effects on the vessel’s equipment and verify operational safety under real-world conditions. 

Through this effort, NYK seeks to accumulate technical expertise that will support the broader use of high-purity biofuels and further accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

NYK has been advancing the use of biofuels through various initiatives. In 2024, the company conducted a trial using biofuel blend B24 and subsequently expanded practical usage to B30. However, the company said there remains limited global experience with the long-term continuous use of B100.

“By collecting long-term operational data through this trial, NYK aims to accumulate valuable technical insights to support both the safe operation of vessels and the wider adoption of high-purity biofuels,” it said. 

 

Photo credit: NYK
Published: 3 June, 2026

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Ammonia

AM Green plans to build green ammonia plant at Indian port

Initiative also includes development of green ammonia handling, storage and bunkering infrastructure, pilot bunkering operations, safety procedures and training programmes, says VOC Port Authority.

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VO Chidambaranar (VOC) Port Authority on Friday (29 May) said it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with India’s ammonia producer AM Green Ammonia to collaborate in the development of a green ammonia production plant.

The plant will have a capacity of one million tonnes per annum (MTPA) at Tuticorin.

The initiative also includes development of green ammonia handling, storage and bunkering infrastructure, pilot bunkering operations, safety procedures and training programmes. 

The project is expected to support the development of green fuel corridors connecting VOC Port with major ports in Europe and Asia, thereby strengthening India’s position in the global green fuels value chain.

VOC Port also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bureau Veritas (India) Pvt. Ltd., to collaborate on Green Port certification, emissions accounting, ESG reporting, safety validation, development of green bunkering practices, and establishment of a Centre of Excellence for green fuels and sustainability.

The port also plans for an upcoming 750 m³ green methanol bunkering facility.

 

Photo credit: Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash
Published: 3 June, 2026

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