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Integr8 on 2025 in review: A cheerful outlook for bunker buyers

Oil and bunker prices are expected to remain relatively low in 2026 unless there is a significant shift, such as heightened geopolitical risk or a change in OPEC+ strategy, according to Steve Christy.

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Integr8 on 2025 in review: A cheerful outlook for bunker buyers

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
steve.christy@integr8fuels.com    

18 December 2025

2025 proves to be a good year for bunker buyers

As the year draws to a close, journals, newspapers, and online outlets reflect on the events of the past 12 months. We are adding our own review to that list—but with a difference. Ours is a good-news story for bunker buyers, highlighting a ‘cost saving’ of more than 25% over the past year.

VLSFO buyers in Singapore started the year paying around $585/mt, now they are paying around $430/mt! It’s the same story in Rotterdam and Fujairah (among other ports); VLSFO prices are down by some $150/mt since January.

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We can also repeat the same story for HSFO buyers, with a bit more added! Prices here are down by 30%. Singapore buyers have seen prices fall from $500/mt to 350/mt, and for the past seven months they have paid more-or-less the same as buyers in Rotterdam.

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HSFO prices in Fujairah also fell by a similar amount. This means that since the start of the year there has been a price fall of some $150/mt for Singapore VLSFO and HSFO, Fujairah VLSFO and HSFO and Rotterdam VLSFO. The only price to ‘fall short’ was for Rotterdam HSFO, but this still fell by $135/mt, and in percentage terms this drop was close to other main international bunker markets.

It’s usually fundamentals versus geopolitics, and fundamentals are winning

Throughout the year we have highlighted and analysed the two main (and conflicting) issues for our business, weakening oil fundamentals versus wars/heightened geopolitical risks. Whether the peace process in Gaza can be finalised, and an end to the war in Ukraine can be achieved, the perceived geopolitical risks today are far lower than they were earlier in the year. This means the fundamentals have taken over as the main industry price driver; and the fundamentals are weak.

The drift down in prices over the past six months (as shown in both graphs) represents these shifts in market sentiment towards the more bearish view.

Where we are today

This bearish overhang is even more pronounced at the moment. Products markets have eased as the seasonal refinery maintenance programs come to an end, and crude markets have been weakened by increasing volumes of OPEC+ production and reports of a significant increase in the volumes of crude oil onboard tankers at sea. Despite tightening sanctions against Russia and US actions against Venezuela, there are no real concerns about oil supply today.

The general view is that we are still looking at an even bigger oil surplus next year. As evidence of this, Brent front month futures prices have fallen by $3/bbl in less than two weeks, to just $60/bbl.

Where will we be next year?

Many analysts still see relatively strong supply gains next year. This is despite OPEC+ recently announcing they would continue to unwind the previous production cutbacks and raise output in December, but then hold-off any increases during the first quarter of next year.

The analysts’ view of a supply-side boost next year is based on planned increases in crude output from Brazil and Guyana, along with the further gains in OPEC+ production. Assuming these supply increases are achieved, the focus then becomes ‘how much will oil demand grow by next year, and where will the balance lie?’.

It is here there are some divergent views. OPEC is looking at a reasonably strong level of demand growth in 2026 (at plus 1.4 million b/d), and so is projecting a relatively balanced market outlook. On this basis prices would be supported, and OPEC+ could continue to unwind cutbacks and increase production from the second quarter onwards. Some of the oil majors appear to be tending towards this view as well.

However, the IEA, EIA and many analysts are not as positive on oil demand growth and the overall oil balance. In this case oil prices are likely to remain close to current levels, or even fall. This is the view we have highlighted over a number of our reports this year.

A picture to conclude

To summarise, a few analysts are towards the bullish side, but most see a growing oil surplus running into next year and Brent prices typically in the $55-62/bbl range.

The graph below illustrates some of these key findings. Brent has already fallen from $78/bbl to $60/bbl this year, and the current forward curve is extremely flat at close to $60/bbl. Although the forward curve is not a forecast, it does show the level at which people are prepared to trade; and Brent trading positions over the next 12 months are not very far away from current levels.

Dec graph3 1024x534

Many of the published Brent price forecast for next year are in the $55-60/bbl range, and we have highlighted the US EIA’s forecast here, as one of the lower ones. The other line highlighted is the result of Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts, giving an annual average Brent price of $62/bbl for next year. Clearly as an average, some participants will be higher than $62/bbl, and some lower, but the headline news story is one of low oil prices in 2026.

Taking the simplified view

From all the analysis, it looks like oil (and bunker) prices will be ‘low’ next year unless there we see something dramatic, like far greater geopolitical risks or a change in OPEC+ strategy to cut production and drive prices (and revenues) higher.

All we can do is reflect on the price drop this year and look out for any deflection away from a potential growing oil surplus and low prices next year.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 5 January, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

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Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (Yang Ming) and South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on Wednesday (2 September) signed a shipbuilding contract for six 13,000 TEU class LNG dual-fuel container vessels. 

The contract was signed by Dr. Chuck Tsai, Chairman of Yang Ming, and Mr. Charles Kim, CEO of Hanwha Ocean. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2029. 

They will complement Yang Ming’s existing fleet of 10,000+ TEU vessels and serve as key vessels on East-West services, with deployment flexibility across trade lanes connecting Asia with the East and West Coasts of North America, South America, and the Mediterranean. 

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

“As Yang Ming transitions toward net-zero emissions, LNG provides a relatively mature and economically viable alternative fuel solution, capable of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 20%,” the company said. 

“At the same time, ammonia can serve as a carbon-free fuel by utilising converted LNG storage facilities, while offering relatively lower conversion costs and comparatively well-developed supply chains and infrastructure. The Ammonia Fuel Ready design will therefore provide Yang Ming with greater flexibility in responding to increasingly stringent international regulations on greenhouse gas emissions.”

In addition, the vessels will be equipped with Type B LNG fuel tanks with a design pressure of 1.0 bar to enhance the safety and efficiency of LNG operations, together with a range of energy-saving technologies, including Wind Shields, Rudder Bulbs, Pre-Swirl Stators, and Shore Power Systems. Smart ship technologies and cybersecurity protection features will also be incorporated to enhance operational efficiency, safety, and reliability while effectively reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Deliveries under Yang Ming’s next-generation fleet optimization plan commenced earlier this year. By 2030, a total of 24 new vessels are expected to enter service. 

This includes 18 LNG dual-fuel vessels—comprising five 15,500 TEU, seven 16,000 TEU, and the six 13,000 TEU vessels under this contract—alongside six 8,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel-ready ships. 

 

Photo credit: Yang Ming Marine Transport
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Both secured AiP for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

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LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Lloyd’s Register (LR) and the Marine Design and Research Institute of China (MARIC) on Thursday (3 September) have secured Approval in Principle (AiP) for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

Announced at SMM 2026, the concept addresses one of the biggest investment challenges facing shipping today: the need to develop vessels and capabilities that can support a range of alternative fuel options and pathways as technologies, infrastructure and regulations evolve.

While LNG is already a mature fuel pathway, methanol and ammonia remain at an earlier stage of development, with questions around global fuel availability, infrastructure development, economics and long-term adoption.

The 114,000 DWT tanker concept has been designed as a product and crude oil carrier that can accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia as technologies, regulations and fuel supply chains mature. By incorporating conversion readiness at the design stage, the concept aims to reduce future retrofit complexity and provide owners with greater confidence when planning long-term fleet investments.

The design concept was reviewed against LR’s July 2026 class rules and regulations, including requirements relating to ships using gases and other low-flashpoint fuels, alongside relevant IACS Common Structural Rules for oil tankers. Final classification and statutory approval remain subject to full compliance with all applicable rules and regulations.

Theo Kourmpelis, Global Business Director for Tankers, Lloyd’s Register, said: “Shipowners are being asked to make major investment decisions today despite continued uncertainty around which fuels will dominate in the decades ahead. Alternative fuel solutions each offer potential pathways to compliance, but fuel infrastructure, regulation and economics continue to evolve at different speeds around the world.

“Designs that preserve flexibility will be critical in helping owners manage risk while preparing for multiple future scenarios.”

Si Nan, Marine & Offshore Marketing Department Vice Director, MARIC, said: “As the industry explores different decarbonisation pathways, shipowners need vessel designs that can adapt alongside technological and regulatory developments. This concept was developed specifically to provide greater fuel flexibility and long-term resilience, allowing owners to respond to changing market requirements without being locked into a single fuel strategy.

“Receiving Approval in Principle from Lloyd’s Register is an important milestone that validates the design concept and supports its future development.”

 

Photo credit: Lloyd’s Register
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity while the strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year.

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DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

Latest data from classification society DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform alternative-fuelled vessel ordering was strong in August, with 52 new vessels added to the platform.

This is the highest monthly total since October 2024 and follows another active month in July, when 47 vessels were added to the database.

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity, with 46 orders recorded. The container segment led the way with 30 orders, while the car carrier segment contributed a further 12 LNG-fuelled vessels. In addition, four ethanol-fuelled bulk carriers and two hydrogen-powered bulk carriers were added during the month, as well as one LNG bunker vessel.

The strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year. In total, 242 alternative-fuelled vessel orders have been placed in the first eight months of 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025.

LNG remains the dominant fuel choice, accounting for 63% of all alternative-fuelled vessel orders registered so far this year. Container vessels represent the largest share of these LNG orders (59%), followed by car carriers (30%).

Jason Stefanatos, Global Decarbonization Director at DNV Maritime, said: “The past two months have been particularly strong for alternative-fuelled vessel ordering, with August recording the highest monthly total we’ve seen since October 2024. This has helped lift year-to-date orders to a level well above the same period last year.

“LNG remains the leading fuel choice, driven largely by activity in the container and car carrier segments. These sectors have been among the earliest adopters of alternative fuels, supported by predictable liner operations and increasing demand from cargo owners to reduce emissions across supply chains. 

“For many owners, LNG offers a combination of emissions reductions, fuel availability and future flexibility while the longer-term fuel landscape continues to evolve. 

“At the same time, the latest figures include orders for ethanol- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels, highlighting that owners continue to explore a range of decarbonization pathways. Different segments are making different fuel choices, but the overall level of activity demonstrates continued investment in lower-emission shipping.”

Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.26 PM Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.36 PM

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 4 September, 2026

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