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Integr8: IEA’s 2030 outlook and what it means for bunker markets

Research Contributor Steve Christy analyses IEA’s oil market outlook to 2030 which he says will shape the bunker market over the rest of this decade.

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The IEA’s 2030 Outlook and What It Means for Bunker Markets

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]   

25 June 2025

The ‘Oil World’ will start to decline within the next 5 years

With oil prices in turmoil, moving much higher because of US, Israeli and Iranian attacks, and then much lower on what looks like a fragile ceasefire, it is perhaps a good time to take a ‘bigger picture’ look at the direction of the oil industry over the next 5 years. The IEA has just published its oil market outlook to 2030, and there is a lot within this analysis that will shape the bunker market over the rest of this decade.

Importantly, we are moving from an industry that has been growing, to one that will soon be in decline. In the IEA outlook, world oil demand is forecast to show only modest gains over the next 2 years, with minimal gains in 2028/29 and then go into decline in 2030.

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Petrochemicals and aviation is where the growth is

Looking at the key aspects of the oil products markets over the next 5 years, there are a few high-profile developments taking place. Firstly, there is significant growth in the petrochemical sector, and this will drive higher demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha.

Secondly, there is also growth in jet demand. This follows the continued increases air travel and transport, and that jet fuel still essentially can only come from an oil refinery.

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Bunker demand is expected to remain flat

Within their analysis, the IEA expects demand for bunkers to remain stable at around 5 million b/d over the outlook period. Their basis is that a 2% p.a. growth in tonne-kilometres demand will be offset by efficiency gains in the shipping industry and IMO regulations supporting some switching to lower emissions fuels, such as biofuels and ammonia.

Oil demand is falling as EVs are increasing

Gasoline and diesel have accounted for around 40% of total world oil demand. The main reason for oil demand starting to decline at the end of the decade is the expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) and the accompanying loss of gasoline and diesel demand in the transport sector.

For us in bunkers, it is the gasoil/diesel and fuel oil sectors that will be most influential.

Substantial changes in the outlook for US & China

Two major changes from last year’s IEA report are that:

  • US oil demand is still forecast to fall, but at a much slower pace (which is not surprising under President Trump’s policies).
  • Oil demand in China will fall much earlier than previously anticipated.

China is now the world leader in EVs in terms of manufacturing and sales. This, along with massive investments in the high-speed rail network and structural shifts in the economy, mean the IEA is now expecting China’s oil demand to start falling within the next 4 years! This is a radical change, with China being the powerhouse behind increases in world oil demand in recent years.

In contrast, before President Trump was elected, the forecast was for US oil demand to fall by 1.5 million b/d between 2025 and 2030. Now, with Trump in power, the IEA has ‘downgraded’ this forecast decline to just 0.45 million b/d

Europe shows the biggest drop in oil demand

The agency has kept its previous expectation for a 0.8 million b/d drop in European oil demand between now and 2030. This means Europe is now at the forefront of changes in oil demand over the next 5 years.

There are no planned refinery closures in Europe after this year, but lower demand in the region will lead to lower refinery throughputs and product availabilities. It is how product balances unfold between cuts in refinery output versus the drop in oil demand; this will impact trade, pricing and how bunker markets are supplied in the region.

Limited changes in the US; but no market can stand alone

The situation in the US may be more balanced given the slower pace at which oil is removed from the energy mix. But we know how markets are ‘interwoven’, and no international bunker market is immune to what is happening elsewhere in the world.

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Latin America & African demand continues to rise

It is by coincidence that forecast declines in demand in Europe and the US are exactly matched by increases in oil demand in the growing economies of Latin America and Africa. This means that oil demand in the Atlantic Basin is expected to be close to current levels in 5 years time. However, with very few new refinery projects in the growth regions, it does stress the need for additional trade volumes to move between areas to achieve regional balances across different product groups. We in bunkers will be affected by these additional trade flows and price implications.

The Middle East not as it seems; its rising

On the face of it, there is a slight decline in Middle East oil demand over the next 5 years. However, once you dig into this, Saudi Arabia’s strategy to stop burning domestic oil for power generation and desalination plants* more than explains the cut. If this is taken out of the equation, Middle East product demand is forecast to increase by around 0.4-0.5 million b/d by 2030.

* part of this is a reduction is in fuel oil use, which could push more of this into the international market.

Nonetheless, the Middle East is one of the key areas where new refining capacity, upgrading and desulphurisation is taking place. Therefore, long haul product exports from the region are likely to continue to increase. This will cover some of the imbalances elsewhere in the world, but will also have price implications.

Asia & China could see the biggest changes for us

Finally, some of the biggest issues hitting the oil and bunker markets are likely to be seen in Asia As outlined, oil demand in China is expected to start falling by the end of the decade. But this is in contrast to what is happening in India and other Asian countries, where a combined growth of almost 2 million b/d is seen between now and 2030.

This is where trade flows, pricing and market influence could be interesting. Despite no growth in Chinese oil demand, there are still a number of refinery capacity additions in the pipeline. There are of course a number of scenarios surrounding these dynamics, but one obvious one is that China becomes an even bigger products exporter over the next 5 years. Again, this will have implications for all the major products, including what happens to us in bunkers.

This report poses more questions than answers

Clearly these are prominent issues for us in the bunker market. Longer term planners in our business will be assessing the potential surpluses and shortfalls by region for VLSFO, blending components and HSFO based on these demand and refining forecasts. It will be interesting to see how trade flows, bunker pricing and China influence our business over the next 5 years.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 26 June, 2025

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Newbuilding

Singapore: Pinnacle Marine’s first B100 fuelled utility boat starts 1,000-hour research trial

Newbuilding operated by Prestige Ocean Pte Ltd will capture data on bunker fuel emissions, marine fuel behaviour, and performance.

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President MT

The 50th vessel constructed by local boat builder Pinnacle Marine (Singapore) Pte Ltd, namely President 100, is starting 1,000 hours of real-time research trials in collaboration with several parties from Wednesday (9 July) onwards, it says.

Powered by B100 biodiesel, the newbuilding operated by Prestige Ocean Pte Ltd will capture data on bunker fuel emissions, marine fuel behaviour, and performance.

It will be participating in trials with Maritime Energy & Sustainable Development Centre of Excellence (MESD), Weichai Singapore, China Classification Society, Pacific International Lines (PTE) Ltd, Abo Shoten, Ltd. / 株式会社安保商店 , Abo Singapore, Wilmar International, Gulf Marine, Amspec Testing & Services, and AYK Engineering and Consulting.

President MT 02

The President 100, Pinnacle Marine’s first full biodiesel utility boat, was launched on Tuesday in the presence of over 100 guests.

“Our latest vessel, President 100, merges legacy and future. Named after our first aluminium boat (“President”) and inspired by B100 biodiesel, it leads the charge for our next 50 vessels — many of which will embrace green technology,” stated Pinnacle Marine in a LinkedIn post.

“The launch was amazing, with strong turnout from across the maritime sector — authorities, shipowners, operators, agencies, chandlers, researchers, offshore engineers, and petrochemical suppliers.”

It added: “We’re excited to see how it paves the way for wider adoption of B100 biodiesel — a cleaner, sustainable path for Singapore’s harbour craft sector.”

 

Photo credit: Pinnacle Marine (Singapore) Pte Ltd
Published: 9 July 2025

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Newbuilding

BHP awards charter contracts for two ammonia dual-fuelled bulk carriers

BHP continues to work with the maritime industry to develop an ammonia bunkering plan for the two vessels when they are delivered from 2028.

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BHP ammonia DF charters

Global resources company BHP on Wednesday (2 July) signed contracts with COSCO Shipping Bulk Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of COSCO shipping Group (COSCO Shipping) for the charter of two ammonia dual-fuelled Newcastlemax bulk carriers.

The new vessels to be built under this arrangement will be two of only a handful of vessels in the world capable of using ammonia as a bunker fuel.

The two vessels, expected to be delivered from 2028, will primarily transport iron ore from Western Australia to Northeast Asia.

When run on lower or low to zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ammonia, these vessels will be capable of reducing GHG emissions by at least 50% and up to 95% on a per voyage basis compared to a conventionally fuelled voyage.

The five-year time charter contracts are expected to contribute towards a reduction in the GHG emissions intensity of BHP chartered shipping.

BHP continues to work with the maritime industry to develop an ammonia bunkering plan – the process of fuelling ships with ammonia – for the two vessels when they are delivered from 2028.

Sourcing lower and low to zero GHG emissions ammonia is subject to an ongoing tender process.

 

Photo credit: BHP
Published: 9 July 2025

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Bunker Fuel Availability

ENGINE: East of Suez Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook (8 July 2025)

VLSFO and HSFO lead times vary widely in Singapore; several Chinese ports suspended due to Typhoon Danas; availability good in Sri Lankan ports.

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RESIZED ENGINE East of Suez

The following article regarding regional bunker fuel availability outlook for the East of Suez region has been provided by online marine fuels procurement platform ENGINE for publication on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

  • VLSFO and HSFO lead times vary widely in Singapore
  • Several Chinese ports suspended due to Typhoon Danas
  • Availability good in Sri Lankan ports

Singapore and Malaysia

VLSFO lead times in Singapore remain highly variable. Some suppliers are quoting as few as six days, while others recommend booking up to two weeks in advance due to long-term nominations—typically contract-based stems that take priority over spot demand. Tight loading schedules at some terminals have further contributed to the delays.

Lead times for LSMGO in Singapore have increased, with most suppliers now advising 6–9 days, up from 2–8 days last week. HSFO lead times also vary widely, ranging from 3–12 days, compared to 9–14 days last week.

In Malaysia’s Port Klang, VLSFO and LSMGO remain readily available, with prompt delivery possible for smaller parcels. However, HSFO supply continues to be tight.

East Asia

VLSFO supply in Zhoushan remains steady amid muted demand, with lead times slightly improving to 4–6 days from 5–7 days last week. Most suppliers are well-stocked, but delays in replenishment cargoes have led some to raise prices in anticipation of tighter availability, a trader noted. This has added further upward pressure on the grade’s price.

For other grades, HSFO lead times have extended to 5–7 days, up from 4–6 days last week, while LSMGO lead times have risen more sharply to 4–6 days from the previous 2–4 days.

However, bunker operations at Zhoushan’s outer and inner anchorages have been suspended since Sunday due to adverse weather caused by Typhoon Danas, according to a source.

The typhoon made landfall in Taiwan’s Chiayi County on Sunday and has since weakened. A second landfall is expected between Taizhou in Zhejiang and Ningde in Fujian on Tuesday afternoon or evening, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources.

Full resumption of port operations is anticipated by Thursday, when conditions are expected to stabilise.

Several other ports across South China and the Yangtze River Delta have also suspended operations since Sunday, the source added.

In northern China, Dalian and Qingdao continue to offer good availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO. However, HSFO remains scarce in Qingdao. Tianjin is currently facing tight supply across all three fuel grades—VLSFO, LSMGO, and HSFO.

In Shanghai, VLSFO and HSFO remain in limited supply, while LSMGO stocks are relatively stable. Further south, availability varies: Fuzhou is experiencing restricted supply of both VLSFO and LSMGO, whereas Xiamen has sufficient VLSFO but limited LSMGO. In Yangpu and Guangzhou, prompt deliveries of both VLSFO and LSMGO remain challenging.

In Hong Kong, lead times for all fuel grades remain stable at around seven days. However, forecasts indicate adverse weather between 9–11 July, which could disrupt bunker deliveries.

Meanwhile, bunker operations at Taiwan’s Kaohsiung and Taichung ports resumed today after being suspended yesterday due to Typhoon Danas, according to another source. Currently, lead times at both Kaohsiung and Taichung are approximately 3–4 days for VLSFO and LSMGO. At other major Taiwanese ports, such as Hualien and Keelung, lead times are shorter—around two days.

In South Korea, LSMGO availability remains tight as more bunker buyers have shifted to Korean ports, where the grade is currently priced lower than in neighbouring Chinese ports. Busan’s LSMGO is now priced $16/mt below Zhoushan’s.

Lead times for LSMGO have widened significantly, now ranging from 4–14 days, up from 4–10 days last week. In contrast, availability for VLSFO has improved, with lead times shortening from 4–6 days to just 2–4 days. HSFO lead times have also eased, dropping from around five days last week to 2–4 days now.

However, bunker operations may be impacted by adverse weather across several ports. Ulsan and Onsan could see disruptions from 10–11 July, Busan from 8–14 July, Daesan and Taean from 11–12 July, and Yeosu from 11–14 July.

VLSFO supply remains robust at key Japanese ports such as Tokyo, Chiba, Yokohama, and Kawasaki. However, prompt availability is more limited in Osaka, Kobe, Sakai, and Mizushima, and remains particularly constrained in Nagoya and Yokkaichi.

LSMGO is generally well-stocked across the country, though securing prompt deliveries remains a challenge in several ports—including Osaka, Kobe, Sakai, Nagoya, Yokkaichi, and Mizushima. HSFO supply is steady overall, but prompt delivery is likewise restricted at these same ports.

In Oita, availability remains tight across all fuel grades.

Adverse weather is forecast to disrupt bunker deliveries at Thailand’s Koh Sichang and Laem Chabang ports on 9 July. In Vietnam, rough sea conditions are also expected to affect bunker operations in Ho Chi Minh on 10 July and again between 13–14 July.

Oceania

In Western Australia, VLSFO and LSMGO are readily available at Kwinana, Fremantle, and Port Kembla, with suppliers recommending lead times of 7–8 days.

In New South Wales, LSMGO supply remains steady in Sydney, though prompt deliveries of HSFO continue to face challenges.

Victoria’s ports—Melbourne and Geelong—have good availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO, but HSFO remains limited, particularly for prompt requirements.

In Queensland, VLSFO and LSMGO are well-stocked at Brisbane and Gladstone, with typical lead times of around seven days. However, HSFO availability in Brisbane remains tight.

Across the Tasman, VLSFO is sufficiently available in both Tauranga and Auckland. That said, bunker operations in Tauranga could be affected by adverse weather conditions forecast for 11–12 July.

South Asia

VLSFO supply remains tight across several Indian ports—including Mundra, Kandla, Mumbai, Tuticorin, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Cochin, and Haldia—extending the supply constraints observed in recent weeks. LSMGO availability at most Indian ports continues to be handled on an enquiry basis.

The dock workers’ union has announced a one-day strike in Mumbai from 9–10 July, with plans to extend the action to Cochin thereafter. Cargo operations in Mumbai are unlikely to face major disruptions, as most terminals there are privately operated. However, operations at Cochin are expected to be affected, according to GAC Hot Port News.

Adverse weather is also set to hamper bunker activity at multiple Indian ports. Disruptions are forecast at Kandla and Sikka on 9 July, and at Visakhapatnam and Mumbai from 8–9 July.

In Sri Lanka, lead times for all fuel grades at Colombo and Hambantota have improved significantly, dropping to around two days from approximately six days last week. However, rough weather conditions expected in Colombo between 11–12 July could impact bunker operations.

Middle East

In Fujairah, VLSFO requires lead times of approximately 5–7 days, slightly improved from last week’s recommendation of around 6 days. Lead times for LSMGO and HSFO remain steady at about 5–7 days, showing little change compared to the previous week.

In Basrah, Iraq, both VLSFO and LSMGO are readily available, although HSFO supply remains limited. In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO is constrained.

At Egypt’s Suez port, stocks of all three conventional bunker grades, VLSFO, LSMGO, and HSFO, are nearly depleted. In Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the supply of VLSFO and LSMGO is currently tight.

Djibouti is facing significant supply pressure, with VLSFO and HSFO nearly out of stock, and LSMGO availability also limited.

On the other hand, Omani ports—including Sohar, Salalah, Muscat, and Duqm—continue to report stable LSMGO supply.

By Tuhin Roy

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 9 July, 2025

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