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Integr8: IEA’s 2030 outlook and what it means for bunker markets

Research Contributor Steve Christy analyses IEA’s oil market outlook to 2030 which he says will shape the bunker market over the rest of this decade.

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The IEA’s 2030 Outlook and What It Means for Bunker Markets

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]   

25 June 2025

The ‘Oil World’ will start to decline within the next 5 years

With oil prices in turmoil, moving much higher because of US, Israeli and Iranian attacks, and then much lower on what looks like a fragile ceasefire, it is perhaps a good time to take a ‘bigger picture’ look at the direction of the oil industry over the next 5 years. The IEA has just published its oil market outlook to 2030, and there is a lot within this analysis that will shape the bunker market over the rest of this decade.

Importantly, we are moving from an industry that has been growing, to one that will soon be in decline. In the IEA outlook, world oil demand is forecast to show only modest gains over the next 2 years, with minimal gains in 2028/29 and then go into decline in 2030.

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Petrochemicals and aviation is where the growth is

Looking at the key aspects of the oil products markets over the next 5 years, there are a few high-profile developments taking place. Firstly, there is significant growth in the petrochemical sector, and this will drive higher demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha.

Secondly, there is also growth in jet demand. This follows the continued increases air travel and transport, and that jet fuel still essentially can only come from an oil refinery.

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Bunker demand is expected to remain flat

Within their analysis, the IEA expects demand for bunkers to remain stable at around 5 million b/d over the outlook period. Their basis is that a 2% p.a. growth in tonne-kilometres demand will be offset by efficiency gains in the shipping industry and IMO regulations supporting some switching to lower emissions fuels, such as biofuels and ammonia.

Oil demand is falling as EVs are increasing

Gasoline and diesel have accounted for around 40% of total world oil demand. The main reason for oil demand starting to decline at the end of the decade is the expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) and the accompanying loss of gasoline and diesel demand in the transport sector.

For us in bunkers, it is the gasoil/diesel and fuel oil sectors that will be most influential.

Substantial changes in the outlook for US & China

Two major changes from last year’s IEA report are that:

  • US oil demand is still forecast to fall, but at a much slower pace (which is not surprising under President Trump’s policies).
  • Oil demand in China will fall much earlier than previously anticipated.

China is now the world leader in EVs in terms of manufacturing and sales. This, along with massive investments in the high-speed rail network and structural shifts in the economy, mean the IEA is now expecting China’s oil demand to start falling within the next 4 years! This is a radical change, with China being the powerhouse behind increases in world oil demand in recent years.

In contrast, before President Trump was elected, the forecast was for US oil demand to fall by 1.5 million b/d between 2025 and 2030. Now, with Trump in power, the IEA has ‘downgraded’ this forecast decline to just 0.45 million b/d

Europe shows the biggest drop in oil demand

The agency has kept its previous expectation for a 0.8 million b/d drop in European oil demand between now and 2030. This means Europe is now at the forefront of changes in oil demand over the next 5 years.

There are no planned refinery closures in Europe after this year, but lower demand in the region will lead to lower refinery throughputs and product availabilities. It is how product balances unfold between cuts in refinery output versus the drop in oil demand; this will impact trade, pricing and how bunker markets are supplied in the region.

Limited changes in the US; but no market can stand alone

The situation in the US may be more balanced given the slower pace at which oil is removed from the energy mix. But we know how markets are ‘interwoven’, and no international bunker market is immune to what is happening elsewhere in the world.

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Latin America & African demand continues to rise

It is by coincidence that forecast declines in demand in Europe and the US are exactly matched by increases in oil demand in the growing economies of Latin America and Africa. This means that oil demand in the Atlantic Basin is expected to be close to current levels in 5 years time. However, with very few new refinery projects in the growth regions, it does stress the need for additional trade volumes to move between areas to achieve regional balances across different product groups. We in bunkers will be affected by these additional trade flows and price implications.

The Middle East not as it seems; its rising

On the face of it, there is a slight decline in Middle East oil demand over the next 5 years. However, once you dig into this, Saudi Arabia’s strategy to stop burning domestic oil for power generation and desalination plants* more than explains the cut. If this is taken out of the equation, Middle East product demand is forecast to increase by around 0.4-0.5 million b/d by 2030.

* part of this is a reduction is in fuel oil use, which could push more of this into the international market.

Nonetheless, the Middle East is one of the key areas where new refining capacity, upgrading and desulphurisation is taking place. Therefore, long haul product exports from the region are likely to continue to increase. This will cover some of the imbalances elsewhere in the world, but will also have price implications.

Asia & China could see the biggest changes for us

Finally, some of the biggest issues hitting the oil and bunker markets are likely to be seen in Asia As outlined, oil demand in China is expected to start falling by the end of the decade. But this is in contrast to what is happening in India and other Asian countries, where a combined growth of almost 2 million b/d is seen between now and 2030.

This is where trade flows, pricing and market influence could be interesting. Despite no growth in Chinese oil demand, there are still a number of refinery capacity additions in the pipeline. There are of course a number of scenarios surrounding these dynamics, but one obvious one is that China becomes an even bigger products exporter over the next 5 years. Again, this will have implications for all the major products, including what happens to us in bunkers.

This report poses more questions than answers

Clearly these are prominent issues for us in the bunker market. Longer term planners in our business will be assessing the potential surpluses and shortfalls by region for VLSFO, blending components and HSFO based on these demand and refining forecasts. It will be interesting to see how trade flows, bunker pricing and China influence our business over the next 5 years.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 26 June, 2025

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Alternative Fuels

Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

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Yang Ming orders six LNG dual-fuel, ammonia-ready containerships from Hanwha Ocean

Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (Yang Ming) and South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on Wednesday (2 September) signed a shipbuilding contract for six 13,000 TEU class LNG dual-fuel container vessels. 

The contract was signed by Dr. Chuck Tsai, Chairman of Yang Ming, and Mr. Charles Kim, CEO of Hanwha Ocean. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2029. 

They will complement Yang Ming’s existing fleet of 10,000+ TEU vessels and serve as key vessels on East-West services, with deployment flexibility across trade lanes connecting Asia with the East and West Coasts of North America, South America, and the Mediterranean. 

Each of the six new vessels will have a capacity of up to 13,650 TEU and feature LNG dual-fuel propulsion and Ammonia Fuel Ready specifications.

“As Yang Ming transitions toward net-zero emissions, LNG provides a relatively mature and economically viable alternative fuel solution, capable of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 20%,” the company said. 

“At the same time, ammonia can serve as a carbon-free fuel by utilising converted LNG storage facilities, while offering relatively lower conversion costs and comparatively well-developed supply chains and infrastructure. The Ammonia Fuel Ready design will therefore provide Yang Ming with greater flexibility in responding to increasingly stringent international regulations on greenhouse gas emissions.”

In addition, the vessels will be equipped with Type B LNG fuel tanks with a design pressure of 1.0 bar to enhance the safety and efficiency of LNG operations, together with a range of energy-saving technologies, including Wind Shields, Rudder Bulbs, Pre-Swirl Stators, and Shore Power Systems. Smart ship technologies and cybersecurity protection features will also be incorporated to enhance operational efficiency, safety, and reliability while effectively reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Deliveries under Yang Ming’s next-generation fleet optimization plan commenced earlier this year. By 2030, a total of 24 new vessels are expected to enter service. 

This includes 18 LNG dual-fuel vessels—comprising five 15,500 TEU, seven 16,000 TEU, and the six 13,000 TEU vessels under this contract—alongside six 8,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel-ready ships. 

 

Photo credit: Yang Ming Marine Transport
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Both secured AiP for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

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LR, China’s MARIC unveil tanker concept ready for three future bunker fuels

Lloyd’s Register (LR) and the Marine Design and Research Institute of China (MARIC) on Thursday (3 September) have secured Approval in Principle (AiP) for a new 114,000 DWT product and crude oil tanker designed to accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia.

Announced at SMM 2026, the concept addresses one of the biggest investment challenges facing shipping today: the need to develop vessels and capabilities that can support a range of alternative fuel options and pathways as technologies, infrastructure and regulations evolve.

While LNG is already a mature fuel pathway, methanol and ammonia remain at an earlier stage of development, with questions around global fuel availability, infrastructure development, economics and long-term adoption.

The 114,000 DWT tanker concept has been designed as a product and crude oil carrier that can accommodate future conversion to LNG, methanol or ammonia as technologies, regulations and fuel supply chains mature. By incorporating conversion readiness at the design stage, the concept aims to reduce future retrofit complexity and provide owners with greater confidence when planning long-term fleet investments.

The design concept was reviewed against LR’s July 2026 class rules and regulations, including requirements relating to ships using gases and other low-flashpoint fuels, alongside relevant IACS Common Structural Rules for oil tankers. Final classification and statutory approval remain subject to full compliance with all applicable rules and regulations.

Theo Kourmpelis, Global Business Director for Tankers, Lloyd’s Register, said: “Shipowners are being asked to make major investment decisions today despite continued uncertainty around which fuels will dominate in the decades ahead. Alternative fuel solutions each offer potential pathways to compliance, but fuel infrastructure, regulation and economics continue to evolve at different speeds around the world.

“Designs that preserve flexibility will be critical in helping owners manage risk while preparing for multiple future scenarios.”

Si Nan, Marine & Offshore Marketing Department Vice Director, MARIC, said: “As the industry explores different decarbonisation pathways, shipowners need vessel designs that can adapt alongside technological and regulatory developments. This concept was developed specifically to provide greater fuel flexibility and long-term resilience, allowing owners to respond to changing market requirements without being locked into a single fuel strategy.

“Receiving Approval in Principle from Lloyd’s Register is an important milestone that validates the design concept and supports its future development.”

 

Photo credit: Lloyd’s Register
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity while the strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year.

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DNV: Alternative-fuelled vessel orders hit highest monthly level since October 2024

Latest data from classification society DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform alternative-fuelled vessel ordering was strong in August, with 52 new vessels added to the platform.

This is the highest monthly total since October 2024 and follows another active month in July, when 47 vessels were added to the database.

LNG-fuelled vessels accounted for the vast majority of August activity, with 46 orders recorded. The container segment led the way with 30 orders, while the car carrier segment contributed a further 12 LNG-fuelled vessels. In addition, four ethanol-fuelled bulk carriers and two hydrogen-powered bulk carriers were added during the month, as well as one LNG bunker vessel.

The strong summer performance marked a significant acceleration in ordering activity after a relatively slow start to the year. In total, 242 alternative-fuelled vessel orders have been placed in the first eight months of 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025.

LNG remains the dominant fuel choice, accounting for 63% of all alternative-fuelled vessel orders registered so far this year. Container vessels represent the largest share of these LNG orders (59%), followed by car carriers (30%).

Jason Stefanatos, Global Decarbonization Director at DNV Maritime, said: “The past two months have been particularly strong for alternative-fuelled vessel ordering, with August recording the highest monthly total we’ve seen since October 2024. This has helped lift year-to-date orders to a level well above the same period last year.

“LNG remains the leading fuel choice, driven largely by activity in the container and car carrier segments. These sectors have been among the earliest adopters of alternative fuels, supported by predictable liner operations and increasing demand from cargo owners to reduce emissions across supply chains. 

“For many owners, LNG offers a combination of emissions reductions, fuel availability and future flexibility while the longer-term fuel landscape continues to evolve. 

“At the same time, the latest figures include orders for ethanol- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels, highlighting that owners continue to explore a range of decarbonization pathways. Different segments are making different fuel choices, but the overall level of activity demonstrates continued investment in lower-emission shipping.”

Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.26 PM Screenshot 2026 09 04 at 12.29.36 PM

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 4 September, 2026

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