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Integr8: IEA long term energy report shows a potentially bigger bunker market going forward

Research Contributor Steve Christy studies IEA’s latest energy report and urges maritime players to adapt to be prepared for opportunities in a new, and potentially bigger bunker market.

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Integr8: IEA long term energy report shows a potentially bigger bunker market going forward

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]

The IEA report is another influential study for us to consider

Three months ago, we highlighted BP’s analysis of the longer-term oil industry and the implications for the bunker market, taken from their ‘Energy Outlook’ report to 2050. Last week the IEA published their long term ‘World Energy Outlook’ to 2050, taking another look at how things could pan out under three different scenarios.

Here we take a dive into what this could mean for the oil industry, and then specifically what they are saying about shipping and the potential impacts on our markets for bunkers.

We know major changes will happen

There is a clear global direction away from oil (and other fossil fuels). The IEA report highlights this, plus the ongoing electrification of the overall energy system, and that clean electricity is the future.

Coming down to the more micro-level of shipping (and aviation), the IEA recognises that we are in a difficult industry to eliminate hydrocarbons. The phrase they use is that we are in a “hard to abate” sector.

Two scenarios showing a possible range, and a case to get to net zero by 2050

The three IEA scenarios are labelled as follows:

Stated Policy case – The course we are on based on policies and technologies currently in place.

Announced Pledges case – If all government/industry pledges and targets are met in full and on time.

Net Zero by 2050 – A path that would achieve net zero by 2050, limiting global warming to 1.50C

Oil is in decline: other energy forms (and efficiencies) will take over

There are a whole host of challenges to meet environmental targets, but the starting point is the world still ‘wants’ more energy. Economic growth in the developing and emerging economies, and the global population forecast to grow from 8.1 billion now, to 9.7 billion by 2050 (up 20%) are a testament to this.

However, by the next decade this growth will be ‘fuelled’ without using more oil, natural gas, or coal, i.e. we only 6-7 years away from peak fossil fuel demand. Renewables (largely to produce electricity) and energy efficiency will be the new bywords in energy demand. The graph below illustrates the scale of these changes from fossil fuels to renewables and electricity under the IEA’s ‘Announced Pledges’ case.

What is happening to oil demand?

In the IEA’s ‘Stated Policy’ case, world oil demand remains just above 100 million b/d through to the early 2030s, and then only falls to around 93 million b/d by 2050. In terms of the discussion, this is likely to be at the very high end of oil demand forecasts. There is an expectation that more governments, industries, companies, and individuals will move towards greater environmental commitments, not least as the cost structure of new technologies is reduced.

The IEA’s second scenario, the ‘Announced Pledges’ case, reflects everyone actually doing what they have said they will do, and doing it on time. This illustrates a case where oil demand would fall to around 50 million b/d by 2050, half the size it is today and clearly a radical change in the market.

A ‘reality’ case may be somewhere between the two lines shown by the IEA, and this is where BP put their ‘Current Trajectory’ case three months ago (see graph below).

What would net zero by 2050 mean for oil?

The ‘Net Zero’ case put forward by the IEA (and by BP) illustrate the kind of ‘oil world’ we would have to be in to achieve net zero by 2050. These are not forecasts, and at this stage seem highly unlikely to be achieved by 2050.

However, they still show the very credible implications for the oil industry at some stage in the future, based on the global moves away from fossil fuels. In both the IEA and BP scenarios we get to an oil industry of only 20-25 million b/d in a ‘Net Zero’ world. This is not a viable market size to maintain scaled-up oil infrastructure across the globe, and illustrates the direction the oil industry, and the oil bunker markets are going in the longer term. It just re-iterates the case that we must gear up for change.

We are in one of the ‘more difficult’ oil sectors

In all of this analysis, electrification is a key means of reducing CO2 emissions, and will play an enormous role in industry, buildings, and road transportation. However, for us in shipping (and in aviation) there is no obvious, easy, or low cost means of using electricity to power our needs. The IEA states that we are in “hard to abate” sectors, and that hydrocarbons will continue to play the leading role. However, they also state that we will go through significant policy changes (through the IMO and the EU) to decarbonise our market and this is assumed to be through biofuels, ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, other low emission fuels, plus greater efficiencies being imposed.

Now for the good news!

There is a huge amount of analysis that goes into this IEA report, starting with economic forecasts and moving all the way through government/institutional policy, industry and consumer responses and ultimately ending up with a demand figure for distinct types of energy in each of the sectors.

Within this work the IEA calculates the demand on shipping under their three different cases, and put a tonne-mile (or tonne-kilometre) figure on this. The graph below illustrates their tonne-mile demand for shipping in the ‘Stated Policy’ and ‘Announced Policy’ cases (the ‘Net Zero’ case being highly unlikely in the time-frame to 2050).

The IEA’s ‘Stated Policy’ case shows the tonne-mile demand for shipping rising by more than 35% by 2050. In their ‘Announced Policy’ scenario they show a gain of 20%. Working off a single, ‘credible’ case somewhere between these two scenarios would indicate a rising shipping requirement of around 25-30% over the next 25 years.

Although growth in the bunker market is likely to be less than this, with efficiency gains, we are still likely to be in a growth sector

Conclusions are: Adapt, Change, and move into a bigger market!

We are in an industry where it is harder to use the existing technologies of electrification to achieve decarbonisation, but we will be pushed along decarbonising policies; we must adapt. And if the size of our market is getting bigger, then there could be more opportunities for us and other players/investors to get involved.

We have to continue to watch what is happening out there, in terms of fuels, technologies, developments and what people are doing. We can also have an influence. In this way we can be best prepared for the opportunities that will be there in a new, and potentially bigger bunker market.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 24 October, 2024

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Alternative Fuels

KR, HD Hyundai tap first ammonia dual-fuel sea trial to develop vessel operating standards

Trial generated data on the vessel’s fuel supply system and engine, which will provide a technical foundation for KR’s future development of domestic guidelines for ammonia-fuelled ships.

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July 17, 2026

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KR, HD Hyundai tap first ammonia dual-fuel sea trial to develop vessel operating standards

Korean Register (KR) on Tuesday (14 July) said it is collaborating with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) to establish a domestic operating environment for ammonia-fuelled vessels under the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries’ Green Shipping Corridor Construction Support Project. 

The initiative supports the development of ammonia as one of the most promising next-generation marine fuels.

HHI recently conducted a sea trial of Korea’s first ammonia dual-fuel propulsion vessel. The trial generated operational data on the vessel’s fuel supply system and engine, which will provide a valuable technical foundation for KR’s future development of domestic guidelines for environmentally friendly vessel operations and supporting wider maritime decarbonisation efforts.

A spokesperson for HD Hyundai, said: “Drawing on our group’s R&D capabilities and on-site technical expertise, we have made meaningful progress in advancing the application of ammonia as a marine fuel. We expect this to help enhance a sustainable maritime ecosystem while strengthening the competitiveness of Korea’s shipbuilding industry.”

Kim Daeheon, Executive Vice President of KR’s R&D Division, added: “The close collaboration between KR and HD Hyundai has enabled us to build the technical foundation for introducing ammonia-fueled vessels in Korea. We will continue to drive national projects forward together with HD Hyundai and establish technical standards befitting the era of Green Shipping Corridors.”

 

Photo credit: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries
Published: 17 July, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

SEA-LNG: LNG, biomethane bunkering continue to grow despite geopolitical uncertainty

The industry coalition says LNG-fuelled vessels, LNG bunker vessels, and LNG bunkering volumes, as well as biomethane bunkering and production, all continue to grow in 2026.
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July 17, 2026

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SEA-LNG: LNG, biomethane bunkering continue to grow despite geopolitical uncertainty

Industry coalition SEA-LNG on Thursday (16 July) published its 2026 Mid-Year Market Review. 

It provides a snapshot of the current market conditions facing the methane pathway, with particular focus on the growth of liquefied biomethane (LBM/bio-LNG). This report comes as SEA-LNG celebrates its tenth anniversary and gains provisional consultative status at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

According to analysis of vessel orders from January to June 2026 from SEA-LNG member DNV, LNG dual-fuel orders remain robust at 73 vessels, accounting for almost 90% of the alternatively fuelled order book, when compared with ammonia, hydrogen and methanol. Additionally, there are now 67 LNG bunker vessels in operation, plus 42 more on order.

The LNG order book continues to be dominated by vessels serving liner trades especially container vessels and pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). This is consistent with recent analysis by the World Shipping Council which shows that LNG remains the preferred fuel for container ship owners, accounting for 58% of total tonnage ordered versus conventional fuels at 36%.

There was also an increase in bunkering volumes and infrastructure. According to analysis by Kpler, global LNG bunker volumes were around 770,000 cubic meters (m3) per month in the period January to May 2026. This represents an increase of about 13% on the same period in 2025 as more LNG fuelled vessels have entered into operation together with favourable LNG and conventional fuel prices.

Liquefied biomethane is bunkered routinely today, and liquefied e-methane is in development. Since the introduction of regulations like FuelEU Maritime, LBM supply and demand have grown significantly. Data from the European Biogas Association show biomethane production capacity reached 8.2 bcm a year by the end of Q2 2026. This represents an additional 1 bcm in a single year, or growth of 17%. The number of operational biogas plants rose from 1,678 to 1,975 plants with €36 billion of allocated capital investment driving the sector.

Steve Esau, SEA-LNG COO, said: “Despite geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties in 2026, the industry is maintaining momentum on the methane decarbonisation pathway. This year’s mid-year review confirms that methane is the practical and realistic solution for shipping decarbonisation. 

“This is reflected in the growing numbers of LNG-fuelled vessels, LNG bunker vessels, and LNG bunkering volumes, as well as biomethane bunkering and production growth. As we look ahead, with e-methane also materialising, we are confident in the trajectory of the methane pathway to decarbonisation.”

SEA-LNG is active at the IMO and EU to underline the importance of goal-based and technology-neutral decarbonisation regulations, and ensure a global market for low and net zero fuels. As the methane pathway continues to mature, efforts have shifted from raising awareness to sharing members’ collective expertise on important technical details that will, for example, further reduce global well-to-wake emissions and scale up bio- and e-methane development and deployment.

As part of these efforts, last week SEA-LNG was granted provisional consultative status at the IMO. This status will enable SEA-LNG to engage directly with Members States as it advocates for practical and realistic regulations to help move the maritime industry forward.

Peter Keller, SEA-LNG Chairman, said: “I have been with SEA-LNG since we founded it 10 years ago, and what strikes me is how methane has ramped up from a pathway to a clear runway for shipping decarbonisation. When building the first LNG-powered containership, I didn’t imagine that within ten years over 10% of the global fleet by deadweight could be powered by methane. 

“What started as a solution to reduce harmful local emissions has cemented itself as the practical and realistic option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions today and into the future. As I look ahead, the fundamentals are strong, the orderbook is growing, the bunkering infrastructure is expanding at a record pace, and biomethane and e-methane are building on LNG’s foundation. Just as we expected.”

Note: SEA-LNG’s Methane Pathway – 2026 mid-year market review can be viewed here.

 

Photo credit: SEA-LNG
Published: 17 July, 2026

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Biofuel

ADM completes first B100 biofuel trial voyage onboard bulk carrier

“MV Harvest Rain” was supplied with 107.39 metric tonnes of B100 biofuel for the five-day trial off the coast of Brazil to test how 100% biofuel performs in real-world conditions.
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July 15, 2026

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ADM completes first B100 biofuel trial voyage onboard bulk carrier

Global agribusiness ADM on Friday (10 July) said the company successfully completed its first global B100 biofuel trial voyage onboard bulk carrier MV Harvest Rain.

For five days off the coast of Brazil, teams worked together to test how 100% biofuel performs in real-world conditions, from storage and purification to engine performance and crew operations.

The vessel was supplied with 107.39 metric tonnes (mt) of B100 biofuel for the trial.

“Marine transport is vital to ADM’s global supply chain. This trial helps us better understand how biofuels can reduce emissions today while supporting our net-zero ambition by 2050,” the company said in a social media post.

“Even more notably, this voyage marked a first for ADM, acting as exporter, charterer, owner, receiver, and processor.”

ADM added that insights from this trial will guide future planning across ADM’s marine fleet.

 

Photo credit: ADM
Published: 15 July, 2026

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