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Integr8: IEA long term energy report shows a potentially bigger bunker market going forward

Research Contributor Steve Christy studies IEA’s latest energy report and urges maritime players to adapt to be prepared for opportunities in a new, and potentially bigger bunker market.

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Integr8: IEA long term energy report shows a potentially bigger bunker market going forward

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]

The IEA report is another influential study for us to consider

Three months ago, we highlighted BP’s analysis of the longer-term oil industry and the implications for the bunker market, taken from their ‘Energy Outlook’ report to 2050. Last week the IEA published their long term ‘World Energy Outlook’ to 2050, taking another look at how things could pan out under three different scenarios.

Here we take a dive into what this could mean for the oil industry, and then specifically what they are saying about shipping and the potential impacts on our markets for bunkers.

We know major changes will happen

There is a clear global direction away from oil (and other fossil fuels). The IEA report highlights this, plus the ongoing electrification of the overall energy system, and that clean electricity is the future.

Coming down to the more micro-level of shipping (and aviation), the IEA recognises that we are in a difficult industry to eliminate hydrocarbons. The phrase they use is that we are in a “hard to abate” sector.

Two scenarios showing a possible range, and a case to get to net zero by 2050

The three IEA scenarios are labelled as follows:

Stated Policy case – The course we are on based on policies and technologies currently in place.

Announced Pledges case – If all government/industry pledges and targets are met in full and on time.

Net Zero by 2050 – A path that would achieve net zero by 2050, limiting global warming to 1.50C

Oil is in decline: other energy forms (and efficiencies) will take over

There are a whole host of challenges to meet environmental targets, but the starting point is the world still ‘wants’ more energy. Economic growth in the developing and emerging economies, and the global population forecast to grow from 8.1 billion now, to 9.7 billion by 2050 (up 20%) are a testament to this.

However, by the next decade this growth will be ‘fuelled’ without using more oil, natural gas, or coal, i.e. we only 6-7 years away from peak fossil fuel demand. Renewables (largely to produce electricity) and energy efficiency will be the new bywords in energy demand. The graph below illustrates the scale of these changes from fossil fuels to renewables and electricity under the IEA’s ‘Announced Pledges’ case.

What is happening to oil demand?

In the IEA’s ‘Stated Policy’ case, world oil demand remains just above 100 million b/d through to the early 2030s, and then only falls to around 93 million b/d by 2050. In terms of the discussion, this is likely to be at the very high end of oil demand forecasts. There is an expectation that more governments, industries, companies, and individuals will move towards greater environmental commitments, not least as the cost structure of new technologies is reduced.

The IEA’s second scenario, the ‘Announced Pledges’ case, reflects everyone actually doing what they have said they will do, and doing it on time. This illustrates a case where oil demand would fall to around 50 million b/d by 2050, half the size it is today and clearly a radical change in the market.

A ‘reality’ case may be somewhere between the two lines shown by the IEA, and this is where BP put their ‘Current Trajectory’ case three months ago (see graph below).

What would net zero by 2050 mean for oil?

The ‘Net Zero’ case put forward by the IEA (and by BP) illustrate the kind of ‘oil world’ we would have to be in to achieve net zero by 2050. These are not forecasts, and at this stage seem highly unlikely to be achieved by 2050.

However, they still show the very credible implications for the oil industry at some stage in the future, based on the global moves away from fossil fuels. In both the IEA and BP scenarios we get to an oil industry of only 20-25 million b/d in a ‘Net Zero’ world. This is not a viable market size to maintain scaled-up oil infrastructure across the globe, and illustrates the direction the oil industry, and the oil bunker markets are going in the longer term. It just re-iterates the case that we must gear up for change.

We are in one of the ‘more difficult’ oil sectors

In all of this analysis, electrification is a key means of reducing CO2 emissions, and will play an enormous role in industry, buildings, and road transportation. However, for us in shipping (and in aviation) there is no obvious, easy, or low cost means of using electricity to power our needs. The IEA states that we are in “hard to abate” sectors, and that hydrocarbons will continue to play the leading role. However, they also state that we will go through significant policy changes (through the IMO and the EU) to decarbonise our market and this is assumed to be through biofuels, ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, other low emission fuels, plus greater efficiencies being imposed.

Now for the good news!

There is a huge amount of analysis that goes into this IEA report, starting with economic forecasts and moving all the way through government/institutional policy, industry and consumer responses and ultimately ending up with a demand figure for distinct types of energy in each of the sectors.

Within this work the IEA calculates the demand on shipping under their three different cases, and put a tonne-mile (or tonne-kilometre) figure on this. The graph below illustrates their tonne-mile demand for shipping in the ‘Stated Policy’ and ‘Announced Policy’ cases (the ‘Net Zero’ case being highly unlikely in the time-frame to 2050).

The IEA’s ‘Stated Policy’ case shows the tonne-mile demand for shipping rising by more than 35% by 2050. In their ‘Announced Policy’ scenario they show a gain of 20%. Working off a single, ‘credible’ case somewhere between these two scenarios would indicate a rising shipping requirement of around 25-30% over the next 25 years.

Although growth in the bunker market is likely to be less than this, with efficiency gains, we are still likely to be in a growth sector

Conclusions are: Adapt, Change, and move into a bigger market!

We are in an industry where it is harder to use the existing technologies of electrification to achieve decarbonisation, but we will be pushed along decarbonising policies; we must adapt. And if the size of our market is getting bigger, then there could be more opportunities for us and other players/investors to get involved.

We have to continue to watch what is happening out there, in terms of fuels, technologies, developments and what people are doing. We can also have an influence. In this way we can be best prepared for the opportunities that will be there in a new, and potentially bigger bunker market.

 

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 24 October, 2024

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Biofuel

BHP and GCMD trial multi-feedstock B100 bio bunker fuel on bulk carrier

Bio-blend in the BHP and GCMD pilot is being used on a BHP-chartered bulk carrier “Berge Lyngor”, which was bunkered in Singapore in early May.

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June 3, 2026

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BHP and GCMD trial multi-feedstock B100 bio bunker fuel on bulk carrier

BHP and the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) on Wednesday (3 June) said they have blended biofuels from two distinct feedstocks—used cooking oil and waste animal fats —and introduced the lower-emissions marine fuel into a BHP-chartered bulk carrier as part of a pilot project.

The bio-blend in the BHP and GCMD pilot is being used on a BHP-chartered bulk carrier Berge Lyngor, owned and operated by Berge Bulk, transporting BHP iron ore from Western Australia to China. When run on bio-blend, the vessel has the potential to reduce well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 79 per cent per voyage compared to sailing on very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).

The vessel bunkered in Singapore in early May with a B100 bio-blend comprising 50 percent tallow-derived biodiesel, sourced and supplied by HAMR Energy, and 50 per cent used cooking oil (UCOME) supplied by Mitsui & Co Energy Trading Singapore (METS).

Mitsui also blended the fuel and Dan-Bunkering coordinated and executed the bunkering operation, which was performed by Global Energy’s barge MT Maple.

The BHP and GCMD pilot will assess how biofuels from multiple feedstocks can be blended, handled, and introduced under real-world operating conditions using existing used cooking oil bunkering infrastructure.

At the same time, insights from this pilot will help identify solutions to challenges related to fuel quality, handling, traceability, and onboard vessel performance.

Biofuels for global shipping today rely heavily on used cooking oil – a feedstock whose availability is approaching its projected limits. Biofuel from waste animal fats presents a promising option to expand the supply of lower-emissions marine fuels.

The outcomes of the pilot are expected to shed light on the practical steps to integrate biofuel blends from different feedstocks into existing supply chains. The diversity of biofuels will provide shipowners and operators with greater flexibility to optimise fuel procurement based on cost, availability, and lifecycle emissions performance.

Biofuels derived from different feedstocks can exhibit varying properties that may impact operations, including potential corrosion from oxidation, fuel system clogging caused by wax formation, which this pilot aims to assess.

The pilot will trace and verify the biofuel blend’s integrity aimed at bolstering confidence in emissions reductions reporting. The pilot will also provide insights into how robust tracing can support future marine fuel supply chains where biofuels from multiple feedstocks with varying lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions footprints are blended together.

This project is co-funded by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore under the Maritime Innovation and Technology Fund (MINT).

 

Photo credit: Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation
Published: 3 June, 2026

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Biofuel

MSC Cruises ship completes 2,000-hour trial with Enilive HVO bio bunker fuel

Test showed HVO is an immediately applicable solution even for marine engines and without the need for technological upgrades, while ensuring performance in line with traditional marine fossil fuels.
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MSC Cruises ship completes 2,000-hour trial with Eni HVO bio bunker fuel

Integrated energy company Eni and MSC Cruises on Tuesday (12 May) announced the completion of a test of the use of Enilive’s Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) diesel. 

This test confirmed the technical feasibility of using the biofuel in its pure form in the maritime sector to power cruise ship engines.

The initiative highlighted the value of HVO as a strategic energy carrier to support the decarbonisation of maritime transport and the reduction of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, enabling shipowners to significantly cut emission-related costs and to meet the targets set by FuelEU Maritime regulation.

The trial was jointly carried out by Eni and MSC Cruises: during the tests, one of the engines of the cruise ship MSC Opera was powered for approximately 2,000 hours with pure HVO, without any engine modifications, while performance and emissions data were recorded.

This test demonstrated that HVO is an immediately applicable solution even for marine engines and without the need for technological upgrades, while ensuring performance in line with traditional marine fossil fuels.

The test also recorded lower emissions of both NOx (-16%) and particulate, as well as a significant reduction in GHG emissions inherent to the origin of the HVO product of around -80% compared to the use of traditional fuel; the reduction is due to the usage of 100% biogenic feedstocks in the HVO production process.

Technical data on engine performance and associated emissions were collected and assessed with the support of Wärtsilä, the engine manufacturer, and Bureau Veritas, which acted as an independent certifier to validate the experimental results.

Stefano Ballista, Chief Executive Officer of Enilive, said: “The trial with MSC has demonstrated how HVO diesel biofuel can contribute immediately to the decarbonization of maritime transport. It can be used in its pure form in marine engines validated for its use, allowing a reduction in climate-altering emissions – calculated along the entire supply chain – of between 65% and 90% compared to traditional marine fossil fuels. 

“HVO is produced at Enilive’s biorefineries in Venice and Gela, mainly from waste feedstocks such as used cooking oils, animal fats, and residues from the agri-food industry. For several months now, Enilive’s marine HVO diesel has been available at the ports of Genoa, Ravenna and Venice for direct delivery from the terminal to vessels via barge. The use of this fuel represents a viable solution for the decarbonization of maritime transport, contributing to compliance with the obligations set by the FuelEU Maritime regulation and reducing the emission-related costs.”

Michele Francioni, Chief Energy Transition Officer di MSC Cruises, said: “We are very pleased to have satisfactorily confirmed the technical feasibility of 100% HVO on our cruise ship as part of our continuous decarbonization efforts. 

“We believe HVO may play an important role in the decarbonisation of shipping and together with other immediately available fuels such as LNG and bio-LNG, constitutes an immediate opportunity that could be deployed on board cruise ships to accelerate the transition towards renewable fuels, bringing us a step closer to our ultimate goal of reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050”.

Manifold Times previously reported Eni and shipping and logistics provider MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at developing joint initiatives in the field of sustainability and energy transition. 

The agreement includes the potential use of LNG as well as lower-carbon energy carriers, such as HVO and bio-LNG biofuels, as well as lubricants from renewable raw materials, for use on MSC fleets dedicated to both logistics and cruise transport. 

Related: Eni and MSC to jointly explore potential use of LNG and bio bunker fuels

 

Photo credit: Eni
Published: 12 May, 2026

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Events

MPA, NYK and MTI conduct autonomous ship trials in Singapore

Trials were conducted with “Elder Leader”, NYK’s first autonomous-capable car carrier, which made its inaugural call at the Port of Singapore on 29 April in its maiden voyage.

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April 30, 2026

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MPA, NYK and MTI conduct autonomous ship trials in Singapore

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore on Wednesday (29 April) said it conducted trials in Singapore with NYK and MTI to test how autonomous vessel systems can interface with port-based system.

In 2024, MPA and NYK signed an MoU to advance cooperation in decarbonisation, digitalisation, and manpower development.

As part of this, trials were conducted with Elder Leader, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha’s (NYK) first autonomous-capable car carrier, which made its inaugural call at the Port of Singapore on 29 April in its maiden voyage. 

“The 200-metre LNG-fuelled vessel represents a new generation of car carriers, combining decarbonisation-focused design with advanced digitalisation and autonomous navigation capabilities. While autonomous-capable, the vessel currently remains fully manned,” MPA said in a social media post.

These trials focused on operational integration—how shipboard autonomous systems communicate with shore-based systems—while maintaining full crew oversight for safety.

MPA, NYK and MTI conduct autonomous ship trials in Singapore

During the call, the following were carried out:

  • Use of MPA’s Just-in-Time (JIT) platform to facilitate timely arrival of vessel and delivery of marine services for Elder Leader;
  • Transmission of Elder Leader’s route plans to MPA’s Next-Generation Vessel Traffic Management System (NGVTMS) prototypes; and
  • Remote pilotage trials, including exchange of pilotage routes between PSA Marine (PSAM) and the vessel, live video and data transmission to a shore-based control station, and communications between remote pilot and vessel.

“The trials provide useful insights into how autonomous-capable vessels can operate safely and efficiently in a busy port environment,” it said.

“They will inform the continued development of NGVTMS and shore-based systems to support Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS).”

 

Photo credit: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore
Published: 30 April, 2026

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