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Integr8 Fuels: Why are VLSFO prices so high, especially in Singapore?

Inter-relationships of VLSFO with high priced transport fuels is driving prices of the material up, especially in Singapore, according to the report.

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By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]
30 June 2022

Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession

Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets and that tightness in products was definitely ‘winning’. Another month on and it’s oil products that are again driving VLSFO prices even higher! Recession is often mentioned, with obvious higher energy and food costs, central banks hiking interest rates and economic forecasts being downgraded, but the lack of supply and low levels of stocks for key oil products has the overwhelming focus for most oil industry players at the moment.

Integr8 Fuels: Why are VLSFO prices so high, especially in Singapore?

Refinery margins back up to historic highs – it’s a clear signal

In our report a month ago we highlighted the extreme highs in refinery margins, with an indicative global measure up from a ‘norm’ of around $5/bbl to $30/bbl in April/May. These margins had started to ease at the end of last month, but since then they have rebounded, and are back close to $30/bbl. The indicator has been one to watch, and once again reflects the current severe tightness in oil products.

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For us in bunkers, it is worth noting which products are driving prices and margins so high, especially as VLSFO is typically a blended product and/or a decision within the refinery process. Understanding this will give us a signal for what products to watch as an early indicator for VLSFO prices potentially rising further, or to start falling.

Focused on which products are driving VLSFO higher

The graph below illustrates the crack spreads between FOB product prices in Singapore and the price of Dubai crude, and how this has changed from late February to late June this year. Firstly, the current spreads on gasoil/diesel, jet-kero and gasoline are huge at around $500/mt. The gain in the gasoil/diesel crack has been the greatest, going from $125/mt in late February to close to $500/mt more recently (almost a four-fold increase). Gains in the jet-kero crack have been similar, and where as the increase for gasoline has been less, the spread is still $500/mt and around double the level of 4 months ago.

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It is tightness in these ‘transport’ fuels that is driving the crack spreads and refinery margins to record highs. Interestingly, the Singapore naphtha crack has reversed and is now negative versus a $200/mt positive contribution 4 months ago, although this has been influenced by a strike in South Korea which forced the shutdown of naphtha crackers; the strike has ended and operations are reportedly returning to normal.

For us, looking at VLSFO pricing, it is the nature of the product and the inter-relationships with high priced transport fuels that is driving VLSFO prices so high, especially in Singapore. The position in the east is stronger than in the west, with exceptionally low diesel and gasoline exports out of India and China resulting in highly restricted supplies east of Suez. However, this is not to under-estimate the tightness in Rotterdam, where prices and margins are still very high!

In complete contrast, HSFO prices are down

Developments in the market for HSFO are a complete contrast to the high-priced influences on VLSFO. HSFO crack spreads are typically negative as it is now essentially a by-product in the refining system. Since February there has been a slight further negative move in the crack spread, down to around minus $200/mt. In Asia, reports of Russian material moving this far and recent refinery problems in Malaysia have both meant surplus HSFO being sold into the market, and this has helped weaken prices.

Overall, in recent weeks HSFO prices have eased in Singapore and Rotterdam, with both markets now more-or-less in line, and at just below $600/mt.

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Strength in VLSFO & a further drop in HSFO means a wide differential

The more extreme price movements in Singapore have led to a much wider VLSFO/HSFO price differential. Just two months ago this spread was at $100/mt; now it is $500/mt. Although Rotterdam VLSFO prices have not hit the same highs as in Singapore, the VLSFO/HSFO spread is still at $300/mt.

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These are differentials that owners of ships with scrubbers didn’t even dream about two months ago; now the spreads are at or above expectations made when initial scrubber investments were made. This will be extremely important for owners of VLCCs with scrubbers, where current market conditions are dire. A non-scrubber VLCC is currently earning around minus $5,000/day on the spot market, where as a scrubber-fitted one is earning close to $20,000/day; not very high, but at least covering more than fixed operating costs.

It is still the talk of continuing tight markets that dominates pricing

The talk of recession will again continue, but for now tightness in products is more than compensating for economic fears. The IEA reported a drop in global refining capacity last year, something that hasn’t happened since the early 1990s, and there are no quick fixes to constraints in the refining industry. Significantly, net gains in capacity this year and next year are only expected to reach a combined 2.6 million b/d. Also, although we have not mentioned crude oil markets (nor the war in Ukraine) in this report, the ExxonMobil CEO recently spoke out about 3-5 years of “fairly tight markets” because of lack of investment since the covid impact.

We have seen that things can change very quickly and at the extreme it’s the doomsday scenario of an economic and stock market collapse that perhaps some people fear.

However, in terms of what is happening now, economic threats are leading to downwards revisions to future oil demand, but demand is still forecast to increase, just not by as much as before. Therefore, it seems we are looking at sustained pressures on a currently constrained system. So, for now, the key pointers to watch for price direction are still refining margins (they tell us a lot about the market), with also a keen focus on any increase in product exports from China and India (they are negligible at the moment).’

 

Photo credit and source: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 5 July, 2022

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LNG Bunkering

Malaysia: Port of Tanjung Pelepas achieves milestone with first SIMOPS LNG bunkering op

LNG bunker vessel “MT Paolina Cosulich” refuelled LNG dual-fuel container ship “Bangkok Express”, operated by Hapag-Lloyd AG at the port.

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Malaysia: Port of Tanjung Pelepas achieves milestone with first SIMOPS LNG bunkering op

Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) on Sunday (16 February) said it successfully conducted its first Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering.

This significant achievement involved the LNG dual-fuel container ship Bangkok Express, operated by Hapag-Lloyd AG, and the LNG bunker vessel MT Paolina Cosulich.

“This milestone underscores PTP's dedication to enhancing our competitive edge in the global market by facilitating clean and efficient maritime operations,” the port said in a social media post.

“We are proud to have partnered with PETCO Trading Labuan Co., Ltd. (PTLCL) and Hapag-Lloyd on this pioneering initiative.”

Manifold Times previously reported the port also achieving its first LNG bunkering operation last year. 

The port completed its first-ever ship-to-containership methanol bunkering operation in November last year. 

Manifold Times previously reported the port achieving its first LNG bunkering operation last year. 

Related: Malaysia: Port of Tanjung Pelepas achieves milestone with first methanol bunkering op
Related: Malaysia: Port of Tanjung Pelepas completes first LNG bunkering operation
Related: Malaysia: Tanjung Pelepas selected to join P41 initiative to achieve green bunkering hub ambition
Related: Port Of Tanjung Pelepas joins G2G decarbonisation scheme between Malaysia and Australia

 

Photo credit: Port of Tanjung Pelepas
Published: 18 February, 2025

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LNG Bunkering

Kunlun Energy wraps up first STS offshore LNG bunkering operation in Hong Kong

Kunlun Energy, a red-chip controlled by PetroChina, said its bunkering vessel refuelled container ship “Zim Haifa Blue Stone” with 2,200 metric tonnes of LNG bunker fuel in a seven-hour operation.

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Kunlun Energy wraps up first STS offshore LNG bunkering op in Hong Kong

Kunlun Energy, a red-chip controlled by PetroChina, on Monday (17 February) said it completed Hong Kong’s first ship-to-ship (STS) offshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering operation on 14 February. 

Kunlun Energy's 8,300 m3 capacity LNG bunkering vessel refuelled the container ship Zim Haifa Blue Stone with 2,200 metric tonnes (mt) of LNG in a seven-hour operation. 

The bunkering vessel involved in the operation is operated by a Kunlun Energy subsidiary. 

According to a PetroChina official, the receiving vessel Zim Haifa Blue Stone departed from Busan, South Korea, on 3 February and passed through Qingdao, Shanghai, and Ningbo before arriving in Hong Kong on 12 February. 

Its final destination is Istanbul, Turkey. This refuelling operation can meet the ship's fuel needs for the entire journey. 

“The successful implementation of this "ship-to-ship" offshore LNG bunkering operation is another example of Kunlun Energy's efforts to help improve the international shipping hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,” Kunlun Energy said. 

“It is expected to attract more green-fuel vessels to pass through Hong Kong, encourage more environmentally friendly companies to conduct business in Hong Kong, accelerate transformation and technological innovation in the shipping industry, and promote the construction of Hong Kong as a green and smart port.”

“This operation holds significant importance for Hong Kong's push toward a green and sustainable shipping industry.”

 

Photo credit: Kunlun Energy
Published: 18 February, 2025

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Biofuel

Wallenius Wilhelmsen successfully completes its first biofuel bunkering trial in Japan

“M/V Tamesis” bunkered 400 metric tonnes of B24 VLSFO blended biofuel, supplied by Mitsubishi Corporation Energy at Port of Yokohama.

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Wallenius Wilhelmsen successfully completes its first biofuel bunkering trial in Japan

Wallenius Wilhelmsen on Monday (17 February) said it has successfully completed its first biofuel bunkering trial at the Port of Yokohama in Japan.

M/V Tamesis bunkered 400 metric tonnes (mt) of B24 VLSFO blended biofuel, supplied by Mitsubishi Corporation Energy. 

This milestone is part of Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s ongoing efforts to reduce its environmental impact and promote sustainability in shipping.

“As part of our commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we have expanded our locations for biofuel supply. Since 2023, the expansion has included key ports in Belgium, Korea and Singapore,” the company said.

“Expanding to Japan enhances our ability to operate more efficiently and sustainably across our global network.”

Wallenius Wilhelmsen has set ambitious emission reduction targets to reach net-zero by 2040. This includes a 40% absolute reduction of well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to our 2022 baseline, as approved by the Science Based Targets initiative.

Yasuyuki Sakurai, Senior Manager, the Orcelle Accelerator taskforce at Wallenius Wilhelmsen, said: “Achieving these targets require a major shift in energy sources from conventional fuels to low and zero-carbon alternatives. Expanding supply locations and securing sufficient biofuels remain a priority, and we are pleased to have conducted our first B24 VLSFO blended biofuel bunkering trial in Yokohama.”

“While our Reduced Carbon Service customers fully support our mass-balance concept, ensuring sufficient biofuel usage across our entire fleet and trade lanes is key to achieving our long-term sustainability goals.”

Mitsuo Ueda, General Manager of Mitsubishi Corporation Energy, said: “In anticipation of growing demand for biofuel in the marine sector, we have begun storing biofuel at our oil terminal in Onahama (Fukushima Prefecture) and supplying B24 in Tokyo Bay using our barges.:

“We deeply admire Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s leadership in the decarbonisation of the shipping industry and remain committed to playing our part in creating a more sustainable future. We will continue striving to meet industry needs through a stable supply of biofuels and contribute to the realisation of a carbon-neutral society.”

This milestone was achieved through close collaboration between Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s Energy Sourcing team and the Orcelle Accelerator taskforce, which has worked for the past two years to establish biofuel bunkering capabilities in Japan.

 

Photo credit: Wallenius Wilhelmsen
Published: 18 February, 2025

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