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Integr8 Fuels: Prices high, daily volatility high, and European bunker prices above Singapore

Market intelligence from Integr8 Fuels analyses price hikes, volatility and the impact of regional bunker markets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Integr8 Fuels Prices are high daily volatility is high and European bunker prices are above Singapore

By Steve Christy, Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]

23 March 2022

VLSFO above $1,000/mt

Just four weeks ago we wrote about Singapore VLSFO prices being at an all-time high of $765/mt. Since then, Singapore prices have hit $1,027/mt and Rotterdam prices have been even higher at $1,109/mt. The reasons are obvious and bunker prices clearly continue to move around developments and expectations surrounding the war in Ukraine.

We can only look at the microcosm of our own markets within what are the more extreme, far-reaching and horrific events in Ukraine, but bunkers are a global market, with crude prices tending to underpin our sector.

Since hitting more than $1,000/mt on March 9th, VLSFO prices have eased back on the prospects of weaker Chinese oil demand because of the recent surge in covid cases and major city lockdowns. The potential for higher oil supply and the release of strategic stocks from other countries has also taken some sting out of the market. However, the war in Ukraine continues and we are still facing huge challenges operating in such a volatile and uncertain market.

01

Bunker prices have been moving by more than $50/mt within a day

Not only have buyers and sellers in the bunker market been faced with this huge rise in prices since the Russian invasion, but the volatility within each day’s trading has been enormous. The graph below illustrates the price range and volatility in Brent front month futures each day since the beginning of February.

02

Before the invasion, Brent futures were trading in the high $80s and the daily high/low spread was around $2/bbl. This was equivalent to a daily price volatility of around $13/mt on bunkers. Volatility has been a quantum leap higher since the invasion, with the average daily high/low range in the Brent market reaching $9/bbl, which is equivalent to a daily movement of close to $60/mt on bunkers! This is still the case and a real challenge - At its peak, Brent varied over a $20/bbl range in just one day (March 9th) and this was equivalent to some $150/mt in the bunker sector.

These developments have forced a shift in buying and selling bunkers, where prices may only be quoted on firm enquiries, validities on price quotes may only last a few minutes and all with much tighter credit terms in such a high price world.

Rotterdam bunker prices are now at, or above Singapore

Regional variations in price do take place and clearly the closer proximity of Western Europe to Ukraine and Russia has led to the unusual position of Rotterdam bunkers moving above Singapore quotes.

This position of Rotterdam at or above Singapore prices is new and could continue, based on heavy restrictions on Russian crude exports to Europe. This is likely to come either through current circumstances where companies are unwilling to take or deal in Russian cargoes or through more formal sanctions. Either way, Europe is the most vulnerable market to the loss in Russian oil supplies and this has pushed prices in Europe even higher than in other international markets.

Historically, VLSFO prices in Singapore have typically been $20-30/mt above Rotterdam. Towards the end of last year crude oil prices increased and VLSFO strengthened even further relative to crude, and this pushed the Singapore premium to Rotterdam out to $60/mt. The events in Ukraine have unwound all of this, with Singapore and Rotterdam VLSFO prices now in line.

03

The swing in the HSFO price relationship is equally dramatic. Historically, Singapore HSFO has been around $10-20/ mt above Rotterdam. This hiked to around $45/mt last year however, since the Russian invasion the relationship has completely reversed and Rotterdam prices are now above Singapore. So far this month Rotterdam HSFO has averaged $14/mt more than Singapore, with the current price relationship even more extreme and Rotterdam HSFO prices $35/mt above Singapore.

04

All bunker markets are threatened, Europe is the most exposed

These shifts in prices and price relationships are explained by the Russian invasion. At the end of last year Russia exported around 5 million b/d of crude and 2 million b/d of products, with two-thirds of these volumes going to Europe.

In the 5 million b/d Russian crude export market, around 3 million b/d went to Europe (via the Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Druzbha pipeline). The high dependence goes both ways, with the 3 million b/d of Russian crude going in to Europe accounting for one-third of all crude imports into the continent, stressing the current tightness in the European market. In comparison, Russian crude to the US only accounts for around 5% of their total imports, and Russian trade to Asia has been far less affected.

The same story is apparent for oil products, with the majority of Russian exports going to Europe, and Europe relying on Russia for almost 40% of all its total product import requirements.

05

In fact, the Russian diesel/gasoil export market is also having a major impact on the Rotterdam market, with more Russian volumes going on shorter haul trades to Germany and Poland, with lower volumes getting further west into France, the UK and Rotterdam. In addition, the European refining system cannot easily make up for the shortfall in Russian diesel/gasoil either in upgrading capacity or the limited ability to use alternative crude supplies. The situation is likely to be exacerbated in the short term as European refiners go into their seasonal spring maintenance programs; even if some refiners can delay maintenance, this will not solve the European gasoil tightness.

Hence, Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian crude and products has had a major and disproportionate impact on relative bunker prices in Rotterdam, with price rises even greater than the steep increases seen in other international markets.

It is very difficult to see a quick return to previous levels of Russian oil trade to Europe, and so this shift between European and Singapore bunker prices could be a continuing feature for now.

At the moment Russia is having to heavily discount its selling prices to get oil volumes sold and the chances are these volumes will end up in Asia. In the longer-term it will be the trading relationship between Russia and Europe, and any resulting shift in trading patterns that will determine if there is a structural change in the Rotterdam/Singapore price relationship. Global trade is a balancing factor and we will have to see what happens to European fuel oil flows to Asia and/or Middle East product exports and if these are pulled from eastern destinations to western destinations.

Other things are happening however, will take a ‘back seat’...

There are other factors influencing prices at the moment, including:

  • The major surge in covid cases in China (to a 2 year high) and the lockdowns in a number of major Chinese cities, including Shanghai;
  • The global negative impact on oil demand from much higher oil, energy, food and retail prices leading to much higher inflationary pressures and lower GDP figures;
  • How the global oil supply/demand picture may unfold, with lower demand expectations, lower supply volumes out of Russia and the OPEC+ group sticking to its current agreement and limiting any supply increase, despite very high prices;
  • What is happening in the possible easing in Iranian sanctions.

For now, the focus has to be on the situation in Ukraine and its outcome, and where international relations with Russia end up.

Photo credit and source: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 24 March, 2022

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Analysis

JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (October 2024)

China’s bonded bunker fuel sales plunged in October, due to lingering tightness of LSFO supply and the bad weather at certain ports.

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Bonded bunker fuel sales in Zhoushan JLC Nov 2024

Beijing-based commodity market information provider JLC Network Technology Co. recently shared its JLC China Bunker monthly report for October 2024 with Manifold Times through an exclusive arrangement:

China’s bonded bunker fuel sales plunge in October

China’s bonded bunker fuel sales plunged in October, due to lingering tightness of LSFO supply and the bad weather at certain ports.

The country sold about 1.45 million mt of bonded bunker fuel in the month, which was the lowest level since February 2022, JLC’s data shows. The daily sales settled at 46,881 mt in October, tumbling by 15.28% month on month.

Bonded bunker fuel sales by Chimbusco, Sinopec (Zhoushan), SinoBunker and China Changjiang Bunker (Sinopec) stood at 410,000 mt, 530,000 mt, 40,000 mt and 25,000 mt in the month, while those by suppliers with regional bunkering licenses settled at 448,300 mt, the data indicates.

China’s bonded bunker exports surge in September, but sales decline

China’s bonded bunker fuel exports surged in September, because of brisker re-export trade, but its actual sales declined amid tighter domestic supply.

The country exported about 2.18 million mt of bonded bunker fuel in the month, with the daily exports at 72,790 mt, up by 45.60% month on month and 37.82% year on year, JLC estimated, with reference to data from the General Administration of Customs of PRC (GACC).

Specifically, heavy bunker fuel exports totalled 1.90 million mt, accounting for 87.19% of the country’s total, while light bunker fuel exports increased to 279,800 mt, accounting for 12.81%.

Though bonded bunker fuel exports jumped amid more re-export trade activities, the actual sales descended as domestic refiners cut their LSFO production and port operation in East China was dampened by typhoons.

Chinese refiners produced about 993,000 mt of LSFO in the month, with the daily output at 33,100 mt, a slump of 11.16% from August and 15.13% from a year earlier, JLC’s data shows.

China issued this year’s third batch of quotas on LSFO exports in September, which was also expected to be the last batch for 2024, permitting only 1.0 million mt of exports, bringing this year’s total quotas to 13 million mt, down from 13.17 million for 2023 (the country issued quotas on 14 million mt for 2023, but some quotas were later converted to clean oil products).

China’s bonded bunker fuel exports totalled 15.09 million mt in the first nine months of this year, with the daily exports at 55,078 mt, sliding by 1.36% from the same period of time in 2023. Heavy bunker fuel exports came in at 14.08 million mt in January-September, accounting for 93.28%, while light bunker fuel exports stood at 1.01 million mt, making up 6.72%.

China bunker exports by region, 2023 2024 JLC Nov 2024

China major blending producers' bunker supply, Oct 2024 JLC Nov 2024

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand shrinks in October

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand shrank in October, because of multiple factors.

Domestic-trade heavy bunker fuel demand settled at 360,000 mt in the month, a decline of 30,000 mt or 7.69% month on month, JLC’s data shows. Most shipowners reduced purchases in early October, as they preferred to consume stockpiles during the National Day holiday. Operating ships decreased in mid-to-late October amid strong typhoons in southern China, and some ports’ bunkering business was hindered by the bad weather.

Domestic-trade light bunker fuel demand came in at 130,000 mt in the month, a loss of 10,000 mt or 7.14% from the previous month. Trade in the light bunker fuel market was limited, with shipowners still hesitant to make deals.

Bunker Fuel Supply

China’s bonded bunker fuel imports hit 22-month high in September

China’s bonded bunker fuel imports jumped significantly and set a 22-month high in September 2024, as domestic LSFO supply declined amid tight quotas.

The country imported 566,700 mt of bonded bunker fuel in the month, skyrocketing by 60.63% from the previous month and 45.38% from a year earlier, JLC estimated, with reference to data from the GACC. The imports hit the highest level since November 2022.

Bonded distributors imported more LSFO to meet demand when domestic refiners slashed their production amid lingering quota tightness. However, these distributors cut their high-sulphur fuel oil imports as their inventories remained relatively high. The imports of MGO were basically stable in September.

Malaysia still topped all suppliers by exporting 202,500 mt of bonded bunker fuel to China, which accounted for 35.73% of China’s total imports. Brazil came in second with 138,300 mt, accounting for 24.40%, followed by Singapore with 99,800 mt, making up 17.61%. Iraq and South Korea slipped to the fourth and fifth place with 85,200 mt and 40,900 mt, occupying 15.03% and 7.22% respectively.

China imported roughly 3.36 million mt of bonded bunker fuel in the first nine months, an upsurge of 16.39% from the corresponding months in 2023, speeding up from a rise of 11.86% in January-August.

China’s bonded bunker fuel imports are expected to hit a 23-month high in October, as domestic supply tightens amid quota shortages.

Chinese bonded bunker suppliers have imported more LSFO to meet demand lately, as Chinese refiners have cut their production amid shortage of quotas, according to market sources. By the end of September, Chinese oil refiners with LSFO export quotas (Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, Sinochem and Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical) had used 87.4% of their 2024 quotas, leaving quotas on only about 1.63 million mt for the last quarter, JLC’s data shows. This means they are likely to produce an average of roughly 545,000 mt of LSFO a month in the last quarter, versus a monthly average of about 1.26 million mt in January-September.

Bonded bunker fuel imports by source, Sept 2024 JLC Nov 2024

Domestic-trade bunker fuel supply tightens in October

Domestic-trade bunker fuel supply tightened in October, as cargo delivery was impeded by strict tax inspection, though the availability of blendstock increased.

Chinese blenders supplied about 370,000 mt of heavy bunker fuel in the month, a cut of 30,000 mt or 7.50% month on month, JLC’s data shows. At the same time, domestic-trade MGO supply slipped to 160,000 mt, down by 10,000 mt or 5.88% from a month earlier.

Arrival of imported fuel oil cargoes JLC Nov 2024

Bunker Prices, Profits

China main oil blending feedstock prices JLC Nov 2024

China domestic trading 180cSt bunker price, 2023 2024 JLC Nov 2024

China bunker blending profit by region, 2024 JLC Nov 2024

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JLC Network Technology Co., Ltd is recognised as the leading information provider in China. We specialise in providing the transparent, high-value, authoritative market intelligence and professional analysis in commodity market. Our expertise covers oil, gas, coal, chemical, plastic, rubber, fertilizer and metal industry, etc.

JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report is published by JLC Network Technology Co., Ltd every month on China bunker market, demand, supply, margin, freight index, forecast and so on. The report provides full-scale & concise insight into China bunker oil market.

All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without prior authorization from JLC.

Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (September 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (August 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (July 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (June 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (May 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Market Monthly Report (April 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Market Monthly Report (March 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Fuel Market Monthly Report (February 2024)
Related: JLC China Bunker Market Monthly Report (January 2024)

Note: China-based commodity market information provider JLC Technology has been providing Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times China bunker volume data since 2020. Data from earlier periods are available here.

 

Photo credit: JLC Network Technology
Published: 13 November 2024

 

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Alternative Fuels

Report: €40 billion needed for EU shipping’s energy transition

Building a supply chain for clean fuels in Europe is a priority for the industry to meet its decarbonisation targets and for Europe to achieve its climate targets, say stakeholders.

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Clean Maritime Fuels Platform

Clean Maritime Fuels Platform on Thursday (7 November) called on policymakers to create the regulatory conditions to unlock investments in the production of clean maritime fuels in the EU.

The Draghi Report estimates that €40 billion in annual investments will be needed between 2031 and 2050 for the energy transition of shipping.

Building a supply chain for clean fuels in Europe is a priority for the industry to meet its decarbonisation targets and for Europe to achieve its climate targets.

Clean Maritime Fuels Platform supports the report’s conclusions regarding the need to:

  • De-risk investments in renewable and low carbon fuels, for example via schemes based on Contracts for Difference and auctions as a service.
  • Launch dedicated sectoral calls under the Innovation Fund for the first deployment of decarbonisation solutions. The 20 million EU ETS allowances allocated to the decarbonisation of the maritime sector until 2030 should be used as soon as possible.
  • Expand existing funding mechanisms for refuelling and recharging infrastructure.
  • Start building a supply chain for renewable and low-carbon fuels in the EU.

European manufacturing capacity should match demand for clean shipping fuels in Europe as much as possible, in line with the benchmark of the Net-Zero Industry Act.

“The Draghi Report has recognised the global leadership of European shipping and the need to remain internationally competitive. In order to meet our targets, we need clean fuels available in the market in sufficient quantities and at an affordable price. To ensure that the shipping energy transition happen, the EU should de-risk investment in renewable and low carbon fuels and start building a supply chain for renewable and low-carbon fuels in the EU. Moreover, existing funding mechanisms for refuelling infrastructure should be expanded to better ensure the security of supply of clean fuels for shipping”, said Sotiris Raptis, ECSA Secretary General.

"Mr. Draghi’s report acknowledges the strategic role of renewable and low-carbon fuels, particularly in decarbonising all transport modes. His report highlights the EU's leadership in this area and calls for a truly technology-neutral approach. We, European Fuel Manufacturers, believe the right EU policy framework and subsidies can create a robust business case to attract private investments and avoid de-industrialization, help the EU successfully deliver climate neutrality by 2050, ensure a secure supply of energy, and foster innovative, EU-based, globally competitive industry for the welfare of EU economies and citizens", stated Liana Gouta, Director General of FuelsEurope.

“By linking the FuelEU Maritime with the supply mandates of the Renewable Energy Directive and abolishing stringent eligibility criteria, we can gradually increase eFuel capacities in the maritime sector.”, said Ralf Diemer, Managing Director of the eFuel Alliance.

“The following decade will lead to a fundamental shift in the European maritime fuel supply structure owing to the introduction of new regulations. The Draghi report places renewable and low-carbon fuels at the forefront of decarbonisation for the hard-to-abate maritime sector, and our industry is fully ready to support European shipowners to achieve this transition in a sustainable and cost-efficient way”, said Angel Alvarez Alberdi, Secretary General of EWABA.

“It is crucial to create a fertile environment for companies to invest in the production of competitive clean shipping fuels in Europe. Building on the Net-Zero Industry Act and the recommendations of the Draghi report, policymakers need to focus on to the importance of building a robust European supply chain for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives in the maritime sector”, said Daniel Fraile, Chief Policy Officer of Hydrogen Europe.

“In the spirit of the Draghi-report, and for stimulating public and private investments, the EU should ensure that its regulations are in line with global developments, also in the maritime domain and notably with the IMO”, said R. Tim Eestermans, Managing Director Europe, Methanol Institute.

 

Photo credit: Clean Maritime Fuels Platform
Published: 11 November 2024

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Research

Sea Cargo Charter report demonstrates shipping’s shortfall against IMO climate goals

2024 report highlights the gap between current emissions and the IMO’s revised strategy for net-zero emissions by 2050.

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Sea Cargo Charter 2024 report

The shipping industry must take urgent action to meet ambitious new climate targets set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), according to a new report released on Thursday (13 June) from the Sea Cargo Charter (SCC), a global transparency initiative developed by the Global Maritime Forum.

New data from the SCC, a global framework representing 20% of global bulk cargo transport, reveals the sector fell short of minimum international climate goals set by the IMO by an average of 17% in 2023, equivalent to 165 million metric tonnes of CO2e.

When considering ‘striving’ goals set by the IMO, signatories are on average 22% misaligned, which represents a shortfall of 204 million metric tonnes of CO2e in 2023.

Currently, dry bulk, general cargo, and tankers account for around 400 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. With global trade predicted to quadruple by 2050, emissions will skyrocket without urgent action.

Reporting has also been expanded to include “well-to-wake” emissions, which measure emissions from the extraction of oil to its end use, providing a more comprehensive picture of environmental impact and pushing the industry towards faster decarbonisation.

The 2024 report highlights the gap between current emissions and the IMO’s revised strategy for net-zero emissions by 2050. The report shows the importance of commercial and operational decisions on the vessels’ use (such as, instructed speed, cargo and routing optimisation, laden/ballast ratio), innovation and cooperation within the industry to be able to take action in this transition.

Other identified barriers to cutting emissions are geopolitical disruptions, limited alternative marine fuel options for long voyages, and a lack of infrastructure to support new technologies.

The 2024 Annual Disclosure Report was produced by the Global Maritime Forum, which performs secretariat services for the Sea Cargo Charter with expert support provided by UMAS and the Smart Freight Centre.

 

Photo credit: Sea Cargo Charter
Published: 14 June 2024

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