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IBIA: Barking up the wrong tree?

The bunker industry needs to be careful about jumping to conclusions on fuel contamination, says Unni Einemo.

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An epidemic of ships experiencing fuel-related problems with seemingly on-spec fuels this year, starting in the US Gulf, has led to feverish speculation about the root causes with many predicting that this is a precursor for worse to come in 2020. Something is afoot, but facts are hard to pin down and we must be careful about jumping to conclusions, says IBIA’s Unni Einemo.

Have you ever observed dogs chasing squirrels? In the excitement, as squirrels flee to safety up a tree, but then proceed to jump to another tree, dogs can get confused. There are squirrels around, but sometimes you see dogs barking up a tree that has no squirrels in it. They are, literally, barking up the wrong tree.

In the frantic chase for culprits when bunker fuels are found to cause operational problems on ships – despite having met ISO 8217 specifications during routine testing against the standard – there is a risk that something similar could happen. It has happened before, which we’ll get to later.

What do we know? 

While we do not have exact numbers, anecdotally it would appear that more than 100 vessels have experienced broadly similar operational problems which have been attributed to bunker fuels. The first reports of severe operational problems came after ships started to use fuels lifted in the US Gulf area, chiefly Houston, mainly lifted during March, April and May this year. Later, in June and July, similar issues were reported by ships lifting bunkers in Panama and Singapore and possibly other locations. The issues associated with problem fuels have manifested in the form of sticking of fuel injection systems components (mainly pumps), excessive sludge formation, or both. In some cases these issues have been so severe as to cause a loss of main engine power.

For the most part, fuel testing agencies have indicated that the fuels met ISO 8217 specifications during routine testing against the standard. It was only when vessels began encountering problems that they commenced forensic-level investigative fuel analysis. Reports from testing agencies have identified certain commonalities between these fuels indicating they contain chemical contaminants from non-petroleum sources. The most commonly reported findings include phenols, fatty acids, and markers typically associated with Tall Oil. These have been found in variable concentrations; sometimes only at trace levels.

That’s all we actually know. As to whether the fuels causing problems are all showing the same chemical contaminants or are likely to have originated from the same source, there are some people who think they do, others are not so sure. So we cannot say for certain if we are dealing with one original problem source that has since been exported to other locations, or if these types of problems have sprung up in parallel from different sources. It is remarkable, however, how long the supply of these problem fuels has lasted, which has caused those on the receiving end much frustration. This in turn has created demands for answers and firm action, but while it is easy to get upset and make demands, there are no easy answers.

Multiple theories

We cannot say with certainty whether all of the reported cases share the same root cause(s). Reports from testing agencies are not conclusive as to what is in the fuels and what caused the problems, and their investigations are continuing.

A common view is that the fuels causing sticking of fuel pumps contain adhesive chemical compounds and that these may have been introduced into the supply chain via inappropriate cutter stocks used in the production of bunkers at one or more refineries and/or terminals. However, this is speculation and we may never know exactly. In similar cases in the past, the source of the contaminant has generally never been adequately identified, but the root cause was by and large a lack of control of the quality of cutter stock used in the marine pool.

There is also the possibility that the problems stem from cross-contamination due to a new product cargo being loaded into multi-purpose storage tanks that were not sufficiently emptied and cleared. Another view is that the cases are not all related and that where only sludge formation has been reported, it could have been caused by incompatibility between a new product and existing residues remaining in tanks.

Blame game & quality control

It seems very likely that the problem fuels contravene Clause 5 in ISO 8217 and Regulation 18.3 of MARPOL Annex VI which broadly state that fuels shall not contain any material in a concentration that adversely affects the performance of machinery – in other words, it contains harmful contaminants.

Proving that there is something in the fuel that contravenes Clause 5 is not straightforward and requires non-standard, forensic levels of testing, typically using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GCMS) and/or Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), which is time-consuming and processing the results can take weeks, especially when there is a spike in demand for such testing.

It is likely that some questions may be raised about previous bunker fuels carried on vessels and the on-board fuel management procedures, hence ship owners would be well advised to carefully document procedures and retain all relevant fuel samples.

However, when testing agencies have identified unusual chemical components and say that these are not naturally present in bunker fuels, the question quickly becomes: who is to blame for these contaminants being in the fuel?

Where certainty is lacking this affects liability; this is why the alleged fuel contamination cases are such a controversial topic, especially regarding which parties should be held accountable. Presently, there is no consensus and many stakeholders are reluctant to share their findings – especially as compensation claims that can run into millions of dollars begin finding their way into courts. We may never get a definitive answer as the legal implications are immense.

Speculation is nevertheless rife and includes suggestions ranging from the deliberate introduction of contaminants into the supply chain, to negligence around quality control, bad luck and poor procedures. IBIA recognises that generalisations may not apply in all cases and that speculating as to the root cause(s) may result in suggestions that fault lies with parties who are later proven to have acted fully in accordance with best industry practice. Generally perceived wisdom can occasionally prove to be unfounded. There may be some chatter in the market, but IBIA has not directly been presented with any evidence of malpractice or negligence by specific companies. It is unlikely that we will, given the substantial legal and financial risks of releasing details to third parties. Some have called for IBIA to bring allegations to the attention of authorities. It is important to understand that to do that, allegations must be corroborated by solid evidence. Anybody that has evidence should contact the relevant authorities directly, though we suspect most who do will be keeping their powder dry until they can present evidence to help them with commercial settlements through insurers and/or courts.

What we can say is this: All suppliers selling product to meet ISO 8217 have a duty to test those cargoes in advance. Once again we call on the industry to observe the advisory in IBIA’s “Best practice guidance for suppliers for assuring the quality of bunkers delivered to ships”, in particular the sections dealing with quality control in the production of bunkers and the subsequent supply chain.

Chasing squirrels

Testing against ISO 8217 did not flag up the off-spec fuels reported in the US Gulf, Panama and Singapore, so what can the market do to protect itself?

The trouble is that while the relationship between the parameters for which there are defined limits in ISO 8217 and operational issues is well understood, when it comes to unspecified contaminants – of which there can literally be thousands – this relationship is not well understood. If it was, a limit and recognised test methods would be specified in ISO 8217.

Cases have occurred in the past when seemingly on-spec fuels caused problems and the cause was subsequently deemed to be chemical contaminants. Sometimes the troublesome contaminant has been successfully identified, on other occasions it was not. Moreover, the concentration at which the contaminant can be deemed to be harmful is a question that has clearly not been answered to everybody’s satisfaction, or it could be quantified and added to the standard.

To go back to our original metaphor: dogs chasing squirrels often identify that there are squirrels up a tree and mark it accordingly. But are these squirrels causing any harm?

This is a very pertinent question as often, fuels with certain chemical compounds appear to cause problems for some ships, but not for others. The same issue has been heard regarding fuels provided in the US Gulf; with some saying that there were times when several ships have been provided with fuel from the same batch, but only some encountered operational issues. While those that did have problems went on to have the fuels tested for contaminants not specified in ISO 8217, those that didn’t may not have seen any reason to do so.

What’s missing is a reference database because today, “no one knows which components are commonly found in harmless fuels nor at which concentration,” says a White Paper written by Bureau Vertias’ fuel testing arm VeriFuel in 2017. The same paper cites an interesting example.

“Styrene was, for a while, identified by some fuel testing companies as an unusual and potentially harmful component in bunkers. It has the ability to polymerise and form polystyrene, and polystyrene has been known to cause filter blocking,” the VeriFuel paper noted. However, studies later showed that styrene in marine fuels does not polymerise, and what’s more, an investigation of vessels that, unknowingly, had bunkered fuels containing styrene, revealed that none experienced any issues consuming the fuel. Only on the rare occasions that polystyrene (not styrene) was present in the fuels, filters were blocking. Yet, some fuel testing agencies have reported styrenes as “unusual and potentially harmful” components when, perhaps, this may have been a case of barking up the wrong tree.

There have been cases in the past where specific contaminants have been identified as the culprit but until the industry can agree at what concentration they pose an unacceptable risk and the appropriate test methods to identify them, setting standards remains as elusive. Just like squirrels elude the dogs that chase them.

At present, empirical evidence from US Gulf cases seems to suggest a link between the operational issues on ships and certain phenolic compounds. But does this mean all phenols are harmful? And do we know at which concentration they cause problems? We don’t. Shale oil, for example, contains phenols and according to ISO 8217 hydrocarbons from shale are among the sources from which fuels can be derived. If shale oil was inherently problematic as a source of bunkers, would we not have seen more widespread and frequent operational issues? Or is this something that needs to be carefully investigated as fuels derived from shale oils become more common?

Fears about 2020 fuel blends                            

With the market already fearful about the quality of fuel bends provided to meet the new 0.50% sulphur limit in 2020, many have predicted that contamination cases like the one seen in the US Gulf and beyond during the spring and summer of 2018, are going to get much more frequent due to blending to ensure sulphur limit compliance. Some have even suggested that the US Gulf cases were linked to experimental blending of low-sulphur fuels. This has not, however, been supported by the testing agencies we have heard from, who have said the products identified as causing problems were high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sold as an RMG380 grade under ISO 8217 specifications (typically either the 2005, 2010 or 2012 edition of the standard).

While IBIA does not underestimate the challenges that will face the market when suppliers need to find new blend recipes to produce fuels to comply with the 0.50% sulphur limit, we would like to emphasise that the contamination cases that have rocked the market this year are completely unrelated to low sulphur fuel oil blending. Moreover, it is important to understand that today’s bunker fuels; both HSFOs and distillates, are also by and large blends. Blending has been going on for decades to ensure bunkers meet the relevant ISO 8217 specifications. Traditionally, the blend target would be to bring viscosity, density and metals within the relevant specifications. In recent years, due to environmental regulations, sulphur has also become a blend target.

In this regard, nothing is changing in 2020; low sulphur fuels will still be blends and the blend components need to be permissible under the scope of the ISO 8217 standard. According to ISO 8217:2017, fuels can be hydrocarbons from petroleum crude oil, oil sands and shale; hydrocarbons from synthetic or renewable sources, similar in composition to petroleum distillate fuels, and blends of the above with a fatty acid methyl ester(s) (FAME) component where permitted.

The blend composition will change, as refinery residual that make up the biggest share of bunkers today are typically too high in sulphur. This may cause some teething problems before bunker fuel producers have identified the “recipes” that work best, but it should not open the door to including cutter stocks with contaminants.

What can be done?

Owners that have been unfortunate enough to bunker these problem fuels have been getting help and advice from fuel testing agencies in managing the situation. In some cases, it was too late and the damage was done while in others it was possible to find operational remedies to at least get the ship safely to the next port.

For ships that have lifted bunkers in areas during the time when contaminated fuels were known to be supplied, it is strongly recommended to get a solid overview of the quality of the fuel prior to using it by allowing time for tests going beyond routine ISO 8217 quality tests. Ship operators that decide to use fuels from the affected areas without this precaution should pay close attention to fuel oil system components, in particular fuel pumps and filters to act quickly if there are signs of problems. They should further consult technical managers/chief engineers within their own company and/or from other technical service providers, including bunker suppliers.

An issue that has been highlighted is that the methodology for the application of non-standard, forensic levels of testing varies from one laboratory to the next which means that the results cannot always be compared and there may be questions around the reliability of the results. The closest we are to a standard method is ASTM D7845 -17, which has been developed to quantify chemical species at low levels in marine fuel oils and cutter stocks by multidimensional GCMS, but it has limitations.

Indeed, using the ASTM D7845 -17 is not sufficient to identify all the chemical species that may cause operational issues and hence give more full protection against breaches of Clause 5 of ISO 8217 and Regulation 18.3 of MARPOL Annex VI

IBIA has many corporate and individual members employed in the laboratory testing industry, and we have called on them to participate in a Working Group to address the current issue and the potential solutions. We have had a good response to this and while IBIA fully recognises and respects the work done by ISO, ASTM and CIMAC in identifying appropriate test methods, we hope to assist in the development of globally consistent methods and protocol which, along with our Best Practice guidance for bunker suppliers regarding supply chain control, can bring better understanding of what happened this year and how to prevent it from happening again.

Source: IBIA
Published: 17 October, 2018

 

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Bunker Fuel

Alkagesta highlights key insights on European choke point pressures in August

Update covers dual supply crisis currently shaping global bunker markets — a stalled Strait of Hormuz peace process and Rhine water levels at a 140-year record low — and the implications for Singapore.

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Alkagesta

Malta-based global commodity trading house Alkagesta recently shared latest market insight examining the dual supply crisis gripping global energy markets as diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stall and Rhine water levels fall to record lows, creating what the company describes as a “state of emergency” for European inland fuel distribution.

In an article published on Alkagesta Market Insights on 11 August, the company’s trading and market intelligence teams outlined how the convergence of two simultaneous logistical crises is tightening prompt fuel availability across Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean:

Strait of Hormuz transits fell to a near-one-month low of 13 ships on August 9 following an attack on an ADNOC-linked tanker, as both the US and Iran demand war reparations before any reopening agreement can be reached. Simultaneously, Rhine water levels at the Kaub chokepoint fell to 16 cm on August 10 — the lowest since records began in 1880 — with forecasts pointing to a further drop to just 4 cm by August 14, effectively halting barge traffic and trapping fuel oil stocks at the ARA hub.

The supply picture across both key hubs has deteriorated sharply. In Singapore, Middle Eastern fuel oil imports nearly tripled week-over-week to 328,878 mt by July 29 — the highest volume since March — providing some relief as onshore commercial heavy distillate stocks rose to a five-week high of 19.58 million barrels by August 5. However, July bunker fuel sales are estimated to have fallen 3.7% month-over-month to 4.44 million mt, with elevated premiums redirecting prompt demand toward alternative ports including Zhoushan and Port Klang.

In Europe, the VLSFO market remains acutely undersupplied as refiners continue to prioritize high-margin diesel over low-sulfur blending components, while the Rhine crisis has forced barges to operate at just 15–20% of normal capacity — with freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe rising more than 400% in two months.

Alkagesta’s strategic outlook points to a potential total breakdown in Rhine-linked inland distribution by mid-August, a VLSFO Hi-5 spread likely to remain above $200/mt through Q3, and a global crude market that analysts warn requires an additional 2.1 million b/d for 18 months to rebuild depleted inventories.

Note: The full article can be read here.

 

Photo credit: Alkagesta
Published: 17 August, 2026

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Bunker Fuel

Integr8 Fuels: Why bunker markets could be lower than we thought

Marine fuel prices could prove lower than previously anticipated as easing refinery margins and improving bunker market fundamentals outweigh a still-uncertain crude oil outlook, says Integr8 Fuels.

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By Steve Christy, Expert Contributor, Integr8 Fuels

29 July 2026

We have just seen one false dawn, is there another to come? 

Last month, we wrote about how close we were to the expected lows in Brent and Rotterdam bunker prices, but not yet Singapore. Given what has happened since, a month is not only a long time in politics, but also a very long time in the bunker market. 

There was a resumption of attacks in the Arabian Gulf region on 13 July, followed by targeted Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil infrastructure and shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb region, the gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. As a result, Brent futures fell to lows of around $70/bbl in late June and early July before surging to a high of $100/bbl on 23 July. Over the same period, Singapore VLSFO fell to $635/mt before climbing to $865/mt, a swing of $230/mt in just 16 days. 

Jul 2026 Graph 01 1024x613 1

Prices at the start of this week fell sharply after a halt in Arabian Gulf attacks over the weekend, with front month Brent was down to intra-day lows of $84/bbl, and Singapore VLSFO $750/mt.  However, at the time of writing there has been a ‘surprise’ attack by Iran, and retaliatory action by the US, with prices rising again.  It looks like we could be at another false dawn. 

The obvious questions are: will there be a return to peace negotiations, and are we close to the end of the war and free-flowing traffic through the strait of Hormuz (and also the Bab el-Mandeb)? The obvious answer is, we don’t know; there are only a few people that are likely to know the answer to this. All we can do is plan for every eventuality. 

Low stocks, higher bunker prices, and a strong Singapore VLSFO premium: it’s a challenge 

For those of us in the bunker market, the point we made last month about Singapore VLSFO trading at a strong premium to crude still holds, albeit slightly less pronounced. The loss of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, together with the added uncertainty surrounding Saudi product exports from the Jizan and Rabigh refineries on the Red Sea, has sustained this premium. 

These developments are likely to keep the Singapore VLSFO premium to crude at elevated levels until there is greater confidence that Middle East crude and product supplies are returning to more normal trading patterns. Amid all the price volatility, this Singapore VLSFO premium remains a key indicator to watch. 

Backwardation in Brent futures illustrates market psychology 

One month ago, backwardation in Brent futures (front month minus second month) had fallen from $7/bbl to virtually nothing, reflecting the market’s belief that an end to the war was little more than a negotiating step away. It wasn’t. The resumption of attacks, coupled with Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, sent prices sharply higher again, with backwardation in the Brent futures market returning to almost $6/bbl. 

Jul 2026 Graph 02 1024x572 1

The halt in attacks over the past weekend has taken steam out of the market, with prices and backwardation falling sharply. Where we go from here depends if there is again a belief peace is on the horizon, or if this is another false dawn. The past month highlights how impossible it is to predict an ending to the war, and how fragile any expectations of peace can be. 

We cannot ignore the price, but still must look to the future

It is impossible to write a report and not highlight the turmoil of the current market and what is happening. However, we still must look beyond this, to see where we could end up. 

In an earlier report, we suggested the run-up to the US mid-term elections in November may be a backstop to the war. However, even this is not guaranteed. There are many dynamic elements to the economy and voter intentions, but one feature that will always crop up in the US is the gasoline price. This has risen from $3/gallon before the war to over $4/gallon for the past four months. 

Jul 2026 Graph 03 1024x570 1

If it comes to it, will Republican voters want to see a resolution to the war and a return to $3 gasoline prices ahead of the elections? 

We have a change of heart on how low bunker prices can go

We don’t know exact timings, but in any planning, we must look at what happens when the war does finally end and prices fall, whenever that may be. In past reports we have highlighted the view that Brent crude prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-war levels in the $60s, and Singapore VLSFO unlikely to go back in to the $400s. This may be the point at which these views change.

Previous thinking was based on a relatively short war, where there would be a large loss of oil supply and a massive stock-draw. In this case, tighter stock levels would be sufficient to keep prices higher than their pre-war levels once we returned to ‘normality’. This would mean Brent futures in the $70s (and not in the $60s), and Singapore VLSFO in the $500s, and not the $400s.

A number of mainstream analysts also held this view, although there were some that were lower and some higher.

Given the war has already gone on for much longer than almost everyone expected, this thinking must change. Yes, global stocks have been drawn down at a rapid rate, but this is slowing. Higher pricing and inflationary blows have had a major impact on global oil demand, with current indications that total oil demand in the second quarter of this year was some 4 million b/d lower than year earlier levels.

The graph below shows this sharp drop in demand and even if the war comes to an end relatively soon, and demand gets back towards some normality, a structural loss of more than 1 million b/d in global oil demand is still expected to have taken place because of the extended period of conflict.

If the war goes on for even longer, structural losses in global oil demand are likely to be even greater.

Jul 2026 Graph 04 1024x579 1

Source: US EIA

It’s a hard road, but we can get there

This means that once the war does end, market psychology will be looking at a rapid increase in oil supplies going into a global market which is much lower in demand.  This opens the way for prices to easily return to their pre-war levels of Brent in the $60s and Singapore VLSFO in the $400s. 

Now we just need those at the centre of negotiations to get us there.

 

Photo credit and source: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 30 July, 2026

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Bunker Fuel Quality

FOBAS report warns of growing operational risks from ISO-compliant bunker fuels

LR’s latest FOBAS Fuel Quality Report reveals that the biggest fuel quality risks are no longer confined to off-specification fuels, with some compliant fuels creating operational challenges.

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New FOBAS report warns growing operational risks from ISO-compliant bunker fuels

Classification society Lloyd’s Register (LR) on Tuesday (14 July) warned that ship operators are facing a growing risk from fuels that appear compliant under routine ISO 8217 testing but still present operational risks once onboard.

According to LR’s latest Fuel Oil Bunker Analysis and Advisory Service (FOBAS) Fuel Quality Report, covering the first half of 2026, off-specification fuels remain a persistent challenge. 

However, some of the most disruptive cases now involve fuels that pass routine compliance testing but show poor stability or compatibility, or contain non-conventional blend components that are only identified through more detailed investigative analysis.

Several incidents investigated highlighted this trend. In March and April, a number of vessels reported operational difficulties after bunkering fuel in a major bunkering hub. Further forensic analysis found that many of the fuels contained elevated concentrations of Estonian shale oil, in some cases estimated to be around 10-15%.

While shale oil is recognised within ISO 8217 as an acceptable blend component, FOBAS investigations found that higher concentrations can be associated with fuel instability and operational issues affecting filters, separators and fuel pumps.

The report also shows that fuel quality variability remains stubbornly high. Off-specification cases remained elevated throughout the first six months of 2026, suggesting that quality issues are no longer isolated events but a more persistent feature of today’s marine fuel supply chain.

The most common recurring issues included sulphur exceedances, excessive water content, sediment and stability problems, elevated catalytic fines, sodium contamination and low flash point distillate fuels.

At the same time, biofuels (especially FAME blends) are continuing to grow without being a primary source of quality issues. Where issues occurred in blended fuels, they were generally associated with the conventional VLSFO component rather than the FAME fraction.

The report concluded that operators will need to adopt a more proactive approach to fuel management as marine fuels become more diverse and fuel quality risks become harder to identify through routine compliance testing alone.

Greater emphasis on fuel stability, compatibility and understanding fuel composition will be critical to reducing operational disruption and maintaining vessel performance.

Murray Kirkwood, Fuel Specialist Consultant, Lloyd’s Register, said: “The findings from our latest report show that fuel quality risk is evolving. The challenge is no longer simply identifying fuels that fail specification. Increasingly, operators are encountering fuels that meet the required limits but still create operational difficulties once they are stored, handled and used onboard.

“As fuel blending becomes more complex, the distinction that matters is increasingly not between on-spec and off-spec fuel, but between fuels that are operationally resilient and fuels that are operationally fragile. Understanding that difference is becoming essential for shipowners and operators.”

The latest findings reinforced FOBAS’ long-standing view that effective fuel management increasingly depends on understanding fuel behaviour rather than relying solely on pass-or-fail specification testing.

By combining routine fuel quality monitoring with forensic investigation of operational incidents, FOBAS provides shipowners with a clearer understanding of emerging fuel quality risks as the industry continues its transition to a more diverse and complex fuel landscape.

Note: The FOBAS Fuel Insight: Fuel Quality Report H1 2026 is available at FOBAS Fuel Insight: Fuel quality reports | LR

 

Photo credit: Lloyd’s Register
Published: 15 July, 2026

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