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Gibson report: Mediterranean ECA to impact bunker prices and tanker trade

Current bunker demand in the Mediterranean is estimated at around 21.5 million tonnes, with >50% consisting of 0.5% VLSFO but demand for VLSFO in the region is expected to fall once ECA is in effect.

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RESIZED Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash

E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd (Gibson) recently released a Tanker Market report on the impact of Mediterranean Sea becoming an emissions control area (ECA) next May on tanker trades: 

The shipping markets are no stranger to emissions control areas (ECAs), following the establishment of ECAs in the United States, Baltic and Northern Europe. From the 1st of May 2025, the entire Mediterranean Sea will become an ECA, with the maximum sulphur content of fuel burned on board falling from 0.5% to 0.1%, unless fitted with an exhaust gas cleaning system (scrubber) capable of reducing stack emissions to this level. 

Following previous ECA introductions and IMO2020, refineries and bunker suppliers have shown they can adapt to the necessary changes in demand, however, there will be implications, both in terms of bunker prices and commodity flows in and out of the region.

Current bunker demand in the Mediterranean is estimated at around 21.5 million tonnes, with >50% consisting of 0.5% VLSFO. Come May next year, demand for VLSFO in the region is expected to fall, with ships that do stem the grade doing so to burn once outside the ECA. 

According to data from Marine and Energy Consulting Ltd, demand for VLSFO could fall to around 6 million tonnes/year, shifting to 0.1% MGO and ULSFO. In theory, HSFO demand should remain steady as ships fitted with scrubbers continue to burn high sulphur grades. However, with some scrubber systems unable to “scrub down” HSFO to 0.1%, it remains to be seen how many Owners will be forced to switch to other grades.

Ships trading in the region will therefore face higher costs, unless they are using a scrubber. For the year to date in Gibraltar, 0.1% MGO has averaged $798/tonne vs. $590/tonne for VLSFO (+35%) which should translate into higher freight rates, and for tankers, likely higher Worldscale flat rates in due course.

The ECA also has implications for the flow of refined products within, in and out of the region. A decline in demand for VLSFO is inevitable, which should facilitate export arbitrages from the region, most likely to East of Suez. At the same time, the Mediterranean should see its structural deficit of gasoil increase, with cargoes being imported from the US and Middle East. Trading of compliant grades across the region should also get a boost, at the expense of movements of VLSFO cargoes.

Overall, this suggests a modest shift from dirty to clean tankers for regional moves, although larger dirty tankers are likely to see some benefit from exporting surplus fuel oil to Asia. Bunker demand in the region will also be impacted (albeit to a lesser degree) by the upcoming FuelEU legislation which mandates a 2% reduction in the greenhouse gas intensity (GHG) from 1st of January 2025. Whilst the initial impact will be small, some demand will be shifted from conventional bunker fuels to greener alternatives.

The full Tanker Market Report can be found here

 

Photo credit: Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash
Published 17 October 2024

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LNG Bunkering

Japan: MOL’s third LNG-fuelled ferry “Sunflower Kamuy” starts operation in Oarai

“Sunflower Kamuy” will serve the Oarai-Tomakomai route between Ibaraki Prefecture and Hokkaido as a replacement for the Sunflower Daisetsu, says MOL.

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Japan: MOL third LNG-fuelled ferry “Sunflower Kamuy” starts operation in Oarai

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) on Thursday (23 January) announced that the LNG-fuelled ferry Sunflower Kamuy, owned by MOL and operated by its group company MOL Sunflower, entered service in Oarai.

The vessel will be the third LNG-fuelled ferry operated by MOL Sunflower, following the Sunflower Kurenai and Sunflower Murasaki, which have been in service on the Osaka-Beppu route from 2023.

Sunflower Kamuy will serve the Oarai-Tomakomai route between Ibaraki Prefecture and Hokkaido as a replacement for the Sunflower Daisetsu.

Along with the sister vessel Sunflower Pirka, scheduled to enter service in early summer 2025, MOL Sunflower will operate a fleet of four LNG-fuelled ferries on the Oarai-Tomakomai route and the Osaka-Beppu route within 2025. 

MOL Sunflower operates 10 ferries and 4 RoRo vessels on six routes throughout Japan, from Hokkaido to Kyushu, providing service for both logistics and passengers in Japan.

 

Photo credit: Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
Published: 24 January, 2025

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LNG Bunkering

SEA-LNG report: Number of LNG-fuelled vessels in operation up by over 33% in 2024

Based on its latest ‘View from the Bridge’ report, SEA-LNG reported an annual vessel growth of over 33% to 638 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation worldwide in 2024.

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SEA-LNG report: Number of LNG-fuelled vessels in operation up by over 33% in 2024

Industry coalition SEA-LNG on Thursday (24 January) reported an annual vessel growth of over 33% to 638 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation worldwide in 2024. 

This was one of the findings of SEA-LNG’s annual ‘View from the Bridge’ report, highlighting 2024 as another year of growth for the LNG pathway. 

Analysing data from SEA-LNG members, the report found that global market adoption and growth reached record heights in 2024. 

Looking forward, over 1,200 vessels are expected to be operating by the end of 2028. In 2024, LNG dual-fuelled vessels accounted for 70% of alternative fuelled tonnage ordered, excluding LNG Carriers, up from 43% in 2023. 

This record expansion follows the growing availability of LNG bunker fuel beyond the traditional bunkering hubs. Currently, LNG bunkers are accessible in approximately 198 ports worldwide, and plans are underway for bunkering facilities in an additional 78 ports. This comes as over 60 LNG bunkering vessels are operating today, marking a 22% increase from 2023. 

The ‘View from the Bridge’ report also highlights how the LNG pathway took a significant step in 2024, with liquified biomethane delivering on decarbonisation and regular renewable e-methane supplies expected in 2026. 

SEA-LNG members are prepared to offer biomethane bunkers in some 70 ports globally, with multiple bunkering operations already taking place. 

A highlight was the successful biomethane bunkering pilot as part of the Methane Track within the Rotterdam-Singapore Green and Digital Shipping Corridor (GDSC). This was the first practical delivery of any international Green Corridor since they were announced as part of the Clydebank Declaration at COP 26 in Glasgow. 

Peter Keller, chairman of SEA-LNG, said: “Our latest View from the Bridge reaffirms the importance of the LNG pathway as a practical and realistic route to shipping’s decarbonisation now. We continue to believe that the shipping industry is heading towards a successful multi-fuel future where LNG will always play a critical role.”

“To deliver net zero by 2050 across the global shipping fleet, a basket of fuels is required and the LNG pathway will continue to lead the way. This is not a case of my fuel versus your fuel but rather which fuel best allows the industry to reach its stated goals. The LNG pathway provides the path to net zero.” 

SEA-LNG’s latest report also highlights that 2024 has seen considerable progress in addressing methane slip. “Advances in eliminating methane slip, in combination with biomethane and e-methane, provide a clear, effective, and viable long-term pathway towards net zero emissions. Shipowners and operators can be confident that the vessels ordered today are future-proofed for their lifespan.”

“With a proven track record of technical improvements to reduce methane slip and upstream emissions, coupled with tighter regulations from global and regional authorities, we continue to believe methane slip will be a non-issue by the end of this decade,” Keller continued.   

FuelEU Maritime will be a key regulation in advancing shipping industry decarbonisation, heading into 2025. According to analysis from SEA-LNG, FuelEU Maritime creates a favourable environment for the LNG pathway. 

With the ability to achieve GHG emissions reductions of up to 23%, LNG-fuelled vessels are compliant until 2039. The use of liquefied biomethane and e-methane can extend compliance through to 2050 and beyond. 

Note: The full report is available for download here.

 

Photo credit: SEA-LNG
Published: 24 January, 2025

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Mass Flowmeter

TFG Marine completes MFM installation on bunkering vessel “MT Hakkasan”

Firm announced the addition of another vessel to its fleet equipped with a fully calibrated, ISO 22192-certified mass flow meter, in Port Louis, Mauritius.

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TFG Marine completes MFM installation on bunkering vessel “MT Hakkasan”

Global marine fuel supply and procurement firm TFG Marine TFG Marine on Thursday (23 January), announced the addition of another vessel to its fleet equipped with a fully calibrated, ISO 22192-certified mass flow meter, in Port Louis, Mauritius.

The installation was done after months of collaboration with Swiss-based mass flow meter partner, Endress+Hauser Group, and certification specialists, Metcore International Pte Ltd. 

“The MT Hakkasan, a supply vessel operated under our TFG Marine-GRM (Group Roland Maurel) joint venture, is the first of its kind to feature this cutting-edge technology at the rapidly growing Indian Ocean bunkering hub,” TFG Marine said.

This latest installation further demonstrates our commitment to equipping our fleet with mass flow meter technology, enabling us to deliver marine fuel with the highest levels of efficiency, accuracy, and transparency from another one of our operating sites.

We look forward to continuing to roll out this advanced technology, providing our global customer base with a superior bunkering experience, wherever we operate.

Manifold Times previously reported TFG Marine carrying out preparatory inspection works with Endress+Hauser on the MT Hakkasan, the first of TFG Marine-GRM joint-venture’s bunkering vessels in the region to be fitted with a fully calibrated and ISO 22192 compliant MFM.

Related: TFG Marine and Endress+Hauser to install MFM on bunkering vessel in Mauritius

 

Photo credit: TFG Marine
Published: 24 January, 2025

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