VLSFO

Integr8: European VLSFO bunker fuel prices are worth watching

Research contributor Steve Christy explains what is behind the steep rise in European VLSFO prices relative to markets elsewhere in the world and where the Rotterdam VLSFO price may go in the coming weeks.

Published

2 years ago

February 23, 2024

Admin

Integr8: European VLSFO bunker fuel prices are worth watching

By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]

22 February 2024

Recent uptick in oil prices; but for temporary reasons

There are mixed signals driving the absolute price of oil at the moment, with a slightly more bullish push over the past two weeks. But, to put it in context, this recent uptick followed a sharp drop in prices at the end of January and into the first few days of February, when Brent crude fell from $82/bbl to $77/bbl. The ‘bullish’ push in the past two weeks has only brought Brent back to $82/bbl.

Looking at very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices in Singapore and Fujairah, these have traded in a narrow $25/mt range so far this month and are still lower than their end January levels (and $35-40/mt lower than average November prices). This is not the case in Rotterdam.

Integr8: European VLSFO bunker fuel prices are worth watching

Behind these price movements there have been some temporary bullish factors in the oil industry so far this year. Arctic weather conditions in North America shut in around 0.9 million b/d of oil production and halted around 1.7 million b/d refinery operations. At the same time, there have been planned, heavy maintenance programs in the Atlantic Basin refining industry running through January and into February. This again has restricted product availabilities and led to lower stock levels. But these are temporary issues!

On the bearish side, in recent reports we have focused on the weak prospects for oil demand this year, and this is still in play, especially when you look at the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest forecast for 2024. Also, gains in non-OPEC production look as though they will be high this year, and the recent cuts in OPEC+ production have been limited to only 0.2-0.3 million b/d from December levels. Therefore, the fundamentals for this year would indicate a ‘lid’ on prices. This, plus the ability of the industry to work around the attacks on Red Sea shipping, has so far superseded the heightened political events and risks in the Middle East region.

European VLSFO prices are ‘more exposed’

From the chart above, Rotterdam VLSFO prices have risen more steeply than in Singapore and Fujairah over the past two weeks. Rotterdam VLSFO prices are around $50/mt higher than in early February, and unlike the other major bunkering hubs, Rotterdam prices are higher than we have seen so far this year, and some $10/mt above their November average.

Back in November, Rotterdam VLSFO was priced at around $580/mt and Singapore at around $680/mt, i.e. a differential of $100/mt. Between then and now Singapore prices have fallen by $40, but Rotterdam prices have gone in the opposite direction and are around $10 higher. The net result is that the differential between the two markets has narrowed from $100- to $50/mt.

VLSFO pricing related to middle distillate pricing

The nature of VLSFO means supply and price movements are closely related to what is happening in other products. The chart below shows the close relationship between Rotterdam VLSFO and NW European diesel prices.

graph 3 (2)

The European VLSFO market looks like it will only get tighter

Europe is naturally short in the middle distillates of jet, diesel, and gasoil and so highly dependent on imports. The European sector had already been under pressure since the embargo on Russian supplies. However, the situation has tightened even further with the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. These latest developments have hit diesel and jet shipments from the Middle East and India to Europe, with a leap in freight costs, longer voyage times via the Cape of Good Hope and tighter market conditions in Europe.

This loss of these supplies from east to west has partly been made up by an increase in diesel exports from the US to Europe. However, this may be short-lived as US refinery turnarounds in the first quarter cut availabilities and potentially limit diesel exports. Hence, European diesel (and so VLSFO) prices are likely to rise relative to VLSFO markets elsewhere in the world.

To compound this even more, Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries may have affected operations and so diesel exports from the country. Although this will not have a direct impact on the European diesel position, there is an indirect consequence, with other buyers of Russian products left short and having to source supplies from elsewhere, which will be in direct competition with European buyers.

Add to this a number of major European refineries going into turnaround in the north and Med regions, and the market is potentially even tighter!

If this isn’t enough, then there is a further layer to add to the argument; and that is the current exceptionally low distillate stock levels in Europe. The graph below shows the five year high/low range for middle distillate stocks in Europe, and that for the past two years stocks have been well below their five year average. More importantly, over the past three months stocks have been below their previous five year lows, and this is at a stage when we expect the market to tighten even further.

Whatever happens, Rotterdam VLSFO prices are likely to be relatively high

All else being equal (it never is!), the fundamentals point towards a more bearish oil market, but with this relative strengthening in European VLSFO prices.

Beyond the fundamentals, the geopolitical risks at the moment clearly lie in the Israel/Gaza position and developments surrounding Iran. But there are also a number of elections this year that will contribute to more uncertainty, not least in the US.

However, as things pan out, the European distillate market does look tight going forward and this would mean relatively higher VLSFO prices in Rotterdam, and Europe generally.

Photo credit: Integr8 Fuels
Published: 23 February, 2024

Related Topics:Bunker fuel - VLSFO Others - Research

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Baltic Exchange: Bunker Report (18 June 2026)

Bunker report panellists include Island Oil Limited, Cockett Marine Oil Pte, Monjasa A/S and KPI OceanConnect, NSI Marine and Transparensea Fuels.

Published

2 days ago

June 19, 2026

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The following bunker report has been provided by freight market information provider Baltic Exchange for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

Screenshot 2026 06 19 at 1.11.18 PM

All values are in US$/metric ton, all-in (invoice price), delivered on board
Delivery in 7-10 days
ISO 8217:2010
IFO 380 3.5% Sulphur
IFO 380 0.5% Sulphur
DMA 0.1% Sulphur

Fujairah – Offshore Anchorage Area
Gibraltar – Anchorage area
Houston – Houston Harbor
Panama – (Pacific) dangerous cargo area, Balboa
Rotterdam – Waalhaven Maasvlakte range
Singapore – Anchorage, under SBA Scheme
Zhoushan – Southern anchorage area

Submitted weekly at Close of Business UK time Daily

Panellists:
Cockett Marine Oil Pte, Island Oil Limited, KPI OceanConnect, Monjasa A/S, NSI Marine and Transparensea Fuels

Photo credit and source: Baltic Exchange
Published: 19 June, 2026

Bunker Fuel

ENGINE: Americas Fuel Availability Outlook (18 June 2026)

Operations suspended in GOLA; fuel availability good in Panama; lead times extend in Zona Comun.

Published

2 days ago

June 19, 2026

Admin

The following article regarding bunker fuel availability in the Americas region has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

Operations suspended in GOLA
Fuel availability good in Panama
Lead times extend in Zona Comun

North America

Bunker demand in the US Gulf port of Houston has been strong over the past week, and prompt fuel availability is slightly tight with most suppliers, a trader tells ENGINE.

Lead times for HSFO and LSMGO are currently estimated at 5–7 days, while VLSFO requires at least 5 days.

In the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA) operations have been suspended and are expected to remain affected through the afternoon of 19 June. Another suspension is likely on the morning of 21 June if adverse weather conditions persist, a trader tells ENGINE.

On the US East Coast, bunker demand in New York has softened compared to previous weeks. Market sources say buyers have been reluctant to book at elevated prices amid ongoing price fluctuations.

Prompt availability is tight for VLSFO and HSFO, with suppliers recommending lead times of 6–7 days. LSMGO can be delivered within 2–3 days.

Weather conditions have generally been favourable, although occasional high wind gusts have caused intermittent disruptions. A small craft advisory remains in effect through late Thursday night, restricting the movement of smaller vessels such as barges.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on 1 June. A developing weather disturbance off the US East Coast is expected to bring thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to parts of the southeastern US and nearby offshore waters this week.

On the US West Coast, fuel availability remains normal across all three conventional grades at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Recommended lead times for HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO are currently 7–10 days.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Bunker demand in Panama has been decent, with good fuel availability reported at both Balboa and Cristobal. A notice of 3-5 days is recommended for all three conventional fuel grades.

El Niño conditions could lower Panama Canal water levels, potentially leading to transit restrictions and reduced vessel traffic.

High wind gusts are forecast to affect operations at Freeport, Bahamas, between 21-22 June, potentially causing delays at the anchorage. Barge operators will assess weather conditions before deciding whether operations can proceed safely.

At St. Eustatius, high wind gusts are forecast from 18-22 June, which could lead to delays in bunkering operations.

Fuel availability is normal across Brazil’s key bunkering ports of Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Paranaguá, Rio Grande, and Belem/Vila do Conde.

Suppliers are reporting normal availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO, with no significant supply constraints. Recommended lead times for both grades are 5-8 days, a trader said.

HSFO is no longer available in Brazil.

In Zona Comun, bunkering operations are currently ongoing but could be suspended for a short period on the morning of 19 June if wind speeds exceed 20 knots.

Suppliers can offer VLSFO and LSMGO at the anchorage, with expected lead times of 6-8 days this week, a source said.

By Gautamee Hazarika

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 19 June, 2026

Bunker Fuel

ENGINE: Europe and Africa Fuel Availability Outlook (17 June 2026)

ARA bunkering lead times remain high; fuel availability is steady in Istanbul; prompt fuel supply is tight in Durban.

Published

3 days ago

June 18, 2026

Admin

The following article regarding Europe and Africa bunker fuel availability has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

ARA bunkering lead times remain high
Fuel availability is steady in Istanbul
Prompt fuel supply is tight in Durban

Northwest Europe

Prompt HSFO and VLSFO availability remains tight in the ARA bunkering hub, because of loading delays at the terminals, a trader said. Lead times of around 7-8 days are recommended for both grades.

LSMGO stems in the ARA require around six days of notice, the trader added.

The ARA’s independently held fuel oil stocks remain unchanged in June so far, compared to May’s monthly average, according to Insights Global data.

Fuel oil stocks in the ARA hub remain almost equal to May’s inventory levels, which were the lowest seen in more than a decade.

The ARA hub has imported 172,000 b/d of fuel oil in the first week of June, lower from May’s monthly average of 230,000 b/d, according to data from cargo tracker Vortexa. Around 48% imports came from Venzuela, while U.S. Virgin Islands sent around 14% of the June cargoes.

The region’s independent gasoil inventories – which include diesel and heating oil – have dropped 70,000 bbl this month so far compared to May. Gasoil inventories have fallen to their lowest level in two and a half years.

The ARA hub imported 226,000 b/d of gasoil in June, up from 204,000 b/d imported in May, Vortexa data showed.

Around 33% of June’s shipments have come from the U.S., while Brazil (14%) and Saudi Arabia (12%) have also sent cargoes. Gasoil shipments coming from the Middle East have fallen considerably over the last few months.

Fuel availability is normal in Germany’s Hamburg, with buyers advised to inquire about supplies around five days ahead to get deliveries of any fuel grade, a trader told ENGINE.

Marine fuel availability is normal off Denmark’s Skaw and in Sweden’s Gothenburg, but buyers may need to provide a notice of around 10 days to arrange deliveries of any fuel grade, according to a trader.

Mediterranean

Fuel availability remains tight for prompt delivery dates in Gibraltar, Algeciras and Ceuta, with buyers recommended to book around 10 days ahead to avoid high premiums, a trader said.

The Gibraltar Strait ports have seen strong summer demand lately.

Ships calling for bunkers in the port of Gibraltar have faced congestion for most of last week due to high influx of vessels, causing significant supply delays in the ports, according to port MH Bland.

Although that congestion has now eased, around 11 vessels still await bunkers as of Wednesday morning, and some suppliers are facing delays of between 2-12 hours.

Some suppliers in neighbouring Algeciras are still operating with around 24-36 hours of delays, the port agent added.

Prompt bunker availability is tight in Las Palmas, and buyers are advised to book with a notice of between 7-10 days to get deliveries of any fuel grade, a trader told ENGINE.

Deliveries are now being carried out in the outer anchorage, in addition to the inner anchorage and berth areas, as weather and sea conditions have improved over the last few days, according to port agent MH Bland.

Fuel availability is stable for all fuel grades in Portugal’s Lisbon, a source told ENGINE.

Fuel availability remains stable off Malta, with HSFO, ULSFO and LSMGO supplies available readily with a notice of 2-3 days, a trader said. VLSFO availability is tight for some suppliers, the trader added.

Fuel availability of all grades is good in the Greek port of Piraeus, and buyers are advised to book around five days in advance to get competitive offers, according to a trader.

Bunker demand is healthy in Turkey’s Istanbul and fuel availability remains stable for all fuel grades, a local supplier informed ENGINE. All fuel grades are available promptly within a day, a trader said.

LSMGO demand is weak off late in the Black Sea Port of Constantza in Romania, a local supplier said.

Africa

In Togo’s Lome, marine fuel buyers are required to give a long lead time of around 10 days to get delivery of VLSFO and LSMGO, a trader said.

In Nigeria’s Lagos, VLSFO supplies need lead times of around a week, a local supplier told ENGINE.

A supplier in Luanda’s Angola said they can deliver VLSFO and LSMGO with lead times of around 5-7 days.

Off Namibia’s Walvis Bay, buyers are advised longer lead times of around 10 days due to high demand, the trader said.

Bunker availability is tight for prompt delivery dates in South Africa’s Durban and off Algoa Bay, a trader said. Buyers are advised to book stems at least 5-7 days ahead, the trader added.

In Mozambique’s port of Nacala and Maputo, suppliers are recommended lead times of around 7-10 days for VLSFO supplies, a trader said.

Bunker fuel availability is very tight in Mauritius’ Port Louis, with buyers advised lead times of between 10-15 days for all fuel grades, according to a trader.

By Nachiket Tekawade

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 18 June, 2026