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Analysis

IBIA: Barking up the wrong tree?

The bunker industry needs to be careful about jumping to conclusions on fuel contamination, says Unni Einemo.

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An epidemic of ships experiencing fuel-related problems with seemingly on-spec fuels this year, starting in the US Gulf, has led to feverish speculation about the root causes with many predicting that this is a precursor for worse to come in 2020. Something is afoot, but facts are hard to pin down and we must be careful about jumping to conclusions, says IBIA’s Unni Einemo.

Have you ever observed dogs chasing squirrels? In the excitement, as squirrels flee to safety up a tree, but then proceed to jump to another tree, dogs can get confused. There are squirrels around, but sometimes you see dogs barking up a tree that has no squirrels in it. They are, literally, barking up the wrong tree.

In the frantic chase for culprits when bunker fuels are found to cause operational problems on ships – despite having met ISO 8217 specifications during routine testing against the standard – there is a risk that something similar could happen. It has happened before, which we’ll get to later.

What do we know? 

While we do not have exact numbers, anecdotally it would appear that more than 100 vessels have experienced broadly similar operational problems which have been attributed to bunker fuels. The first reports of severe operational problems came after ships started to use fuels lifted in the US Gulf area, chiefly Houston, mainly lifted during March, April and May this year. Later, in June and July, similar issues were reported by ships lifting bunkers in Panama and Singapore and possibly other locations. The issues associated with problem fuels have manifested in the form of sticking of fuel injection systems components (mainly pumps), excessive sludge formation, or both. In some cases these issues have been so severe as to cause a loss of main engine power.

For the most part, fuel testing agencies have indicated that the fuels met ISO 8217 specifications during routine testing against the standard. It was only when vessels began encountering problems that they commenced forensic-level investigative fuel analysis. Reports from testing agencies have identified certain commonalities between these fuels indicating they contain chemical contaminants from non-petroleum sources. The most commonly reported findings include phenols, fatty acids, and markers typically associated with Tall Oil. These have been found in variable concentrations; sometimes only at trace levels.

That’s all we actually know. As to whether the fuels causing problems are all showing the same chemical contaminants or are likely to have originated from the same source, there are some people who think they do, others are not so sure. So we cannot say for certain if we are dealing with one original problem source that has since been exported to other locations, or if these types of problems have sprung up in parallel from different sources. It is remarkable, however, how long the supply of these problem fuels has lasted, which has caused those on the receiving end much frustration. This in turn has created demands for answers and firm action, but while it is easy to get upset and make demands, there are no easy answers.

Multiple theories

We cannot say with certainty whether all of the reported cases share the same root cause(s). Reports from testing agencies are not conclusive as to what is in the fuels and what caused the problems, and their investigations are continuing.

A common view is that the fuels causing sticking of fuel pumps contain adhesive chemical compounds and that these may have been introduced into the supply chain via inappropriate cutter stocks used in the production of bunkers at one or more refineries and/or terminals. However, this is speculation and we may never know exactly. In similar cases in the past, the source of the contaminant has generally never been adequately identified, but the root cause was by and large a lack of control of the quality of cutter stock used in the marine pool.

There is also the possibility that the problems stem from cross-contamination due to a new product cargo being loaded into multi-purpose storage tanks that were not sufficiently emptied and cleared. Another view is that the cases are not all related and that where only sludge formation has been reported, it could have been caused by incompatibility between a new product and existing residues remaining in tanks.

Blame game & quality control

It seems very likely that the problem fuels contravene Clause 5 in ISO 8217 and Regulation 18.3 of MARPOL Annex VI which broadly state that fuels shall not contain any material in a concentration that adversely affects the performance of machinery – in other words, it contains harmful contaminants.

Proving that there is something in the fuel that contravenes Clause 5 is not straightforward and requires non-standard, forensic levels of testing, typically using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GCMS) and/or Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), which is time-consuming and processing the results can take weeks, especially when there is a spike in demand for such testing.

It is likely that some questions may be raised about previous bunker fuels carried on vessels and the on-board fuel management procedures, hence ship owners would be well advised to carefully document procedures and retain all relevant fuel samples.

However, when testing agencies have identified unusual chemical components and say that these are not naturally present in bunker fuels, the question quickly becomes: who is to blame for these contaminants being in the fuel?

Where certainty is lacking this affects liability; this is why the alleged fuel contamination cases are such a controversial topic, especially regarding which parties should be held accountable. Presently, there is no consensus and many stakeholders are reluctant to share their findings – especially as compensation claims that can run into millions of dollars begin finding their way into courts. We may never get a definitive answer as the legal implications are immense.

Speculation is nevertheless rife and includes suggestions ranging from the deliberate introduction of contaminants into the supply chain, to negligence around quality control, bad luck and poor procedures. IBIA recognises that generalisations may not apply in all cases and that speculating as to the root cause(s) may result in suggestions that fault lies with parties who are later proven to have acted fully in accordance with best industry practice. Generally perceived wisdom can occasionally prove to be unfounded. There may be some chatter in the market, but IBIA has not directly been presented with any evidence of malpractice or negligence by specific companies. It is unlikely that we will, given the substantial legal and financial risks of releasing details to third parties. Some have called for IBIA to bring allegations to the attention of authorities. It is important to understand that to do that, allegations must be corroborated by solid evidence. Anybody that has evidence should contact the relevant authorities directly, though we suspect most who do will be keeping their powder dry until they can present evidence to help them with commercial settlements through insurers and/or courts.

What we can say is this: All suppliers selling product to meet ISO 8217 have a duty to test those cargoes in advance. Once again we call on the industry to observe the advisory in IBIA’s “Best practice guidance for suppliers for assuring the quality of bunkers delivered to ships”, in particular the sections dealing with quality control in the production of bunkers and the subsequent supply chain.

Chasing squirrels

Testing against ISO 8217 did not flag up the off-spec fuels reported in the US Gulf, Panama and Singapore, so what can the market do to protect itself?

The trouble is that while the relationship between the parameters for which there are defined limits in ISO 8217 and operational issues is well understood, when it comes to unspecified contaminants – of which there can literally be thousands – this relationship is not well understood. If it was, a limit and recognised test methods would be specified in ISO 8217.

Cases have occurred in the past when seemingly on-spec fuels caused problems and the cause was subsequently deemed to be chemical contaminants. Sometimes the troublesome contaminant has been successfully identified, on other occasions it was not. Moreover, the concentration at which the contaminant can be deemed to be harmful is a question that has clearly not been answered to everybody’s satisfaction, or it could be quantified and added to the standard.

To go back to our original metaphor: dogs chasing squirrels often identify that there are squirrels up a tree and mark it accordingly. But are these squirrels causing any harm?

This is a very pertinent question as often, fuels with certain chemical compounds appear to cause problems for some ships, but not for others. The same issue has been heard regarding fuels provided in the US Gulf; with some saying that there were times when several ships have been provided with fuel from the same batch, but only some encountered operational issues. While those that did have problems went on to have the fuels tested for contaminants not specified in ISO 8217, those that didn’t may not have seen any reason to do so.

What’s missing is a reference database because today, “no one knows which components are commonly found in harmless fuels nor at which concentration,” says a White Paper written by Bureau Vertias’ fuel testing arm VeriFuel in 2017. The same paper cites an interesting example.

“Styrene was, for a while, identified by some fuel testing companies as an unusual and potentially harmful component in bunkers. It has the ability to polymerise and form polystyrene, and polystyrene has been known to cause filter blocking,” the VeriFuel paper noted. However, studies later showed that styrene in marine fuels does not polymerise, and what’s more, an investigation of vessels that, unknowingly, had bunkered fuels containing styrene, revealed that none experienced any issues consuming the fuel. Only on the rare occasions that polystyrene (not styrene) was present in the fuels, filters were blocking. Yet, some fuel testing agencies have reported styrenes as “unusual and potentially harmful” components when, perhaps, this may have been a case of barking up the wrong tree.

There have been cases in the past where specific contaminants have been identified as the culprit but until the industry can agree at what concentration they pose an unacceptable risk and the appropriate test methods to identify them, setting standards remains as elusive. Just like squirrels elude the dogs that chase them.

At present, empirical evidence from US Gulf cases seems to suggest a link between the operational issues on ships and certain phenolic compounds. But does this mean all phenols are harmful? And do we know at which concentration they cause problems? We don’t. Shale oil, for example, contains phenols and according to ISO 8217 hydrocarbons from shale are among the sources from which fuels can be derived. If shale oil was inherently problematic as a source of bunkers, would we not have seen more widespread and frequent operational issues? Or is this something that needs to be carefully investigated as fuels derived from shale oils become more common?

Fears about 2020 fuel blends                            

With the market already fearful about the quality of fuel bends provided to meet the new 0.50% sulphur limit in 2020, many have predicted that contamination cases like the one seen in the US Gulf and beyond during the spring and summer of 2018, are going to get much more frequent due to blending to ensure sulphur limit compliance. Some have even suggested that the US Gulf cases were linked to experimental blending of low-sulphur fuels. This has not, however, been supported by the testing agencies we have heard from, who have said the products identified as causing problems were high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sold as an RMG380 grade under ISO 8217 specifications (typically either the 2005, 2010 or 2012 edition of the standard).

While IBIA does not underestimate the challenges that will face the market when suppliers need to find new blend recipes to produce fuels to comply with the 0.50% sulphur limit, we would like to emphasise that the contamination cases that have rocked the market this year are completely unrelated to low sulphur fuel oil blending. Moreover, it is important to understand that today’s bunker fuels; both HSFOs and distillates, are also by and large blends. Blending has been going on for decades to ensure bunkers meet the relevant ISO 8217 specifications. Traditionally, the blend target would be to bring viscosity, density and metals within the relevant specifications. In recent years, due to environmental regulations, sulphur has also become a blend target.

In this regard, nothing is changing in 2020; low sulphur fuels will still be blends and the blend components need to be permissible under the scope of the ISO 8217 standard. According to ISO 8217:2017, fuels can be hydrocarbons from petroleum crude oil, oil sands and shale; hydrocarbons from synthetic or renewable sources, similar in composition to petroleum distillate fuels, and blends of the above with a fatty acid methyl ester(s) (FAME) component where permitted.

The blend composition will change, as refinery residual that make up the biggest share of bunkers today are typically too high in sulphur. This may cause some teething problems before bunker fuel producers have identified the “recipes” that work best, but it should not open the door to including cutter stocks with contaminants.

What can be done?

Owners that have been unfortunate enough to bunker these problem fuels have been getting help and advice from fuel testing agencies in managing the situation. In some cases, it was too late and the damage was done while in others it was possible to find operational remedies to at least get the ship safely to the next port.

For ships that have lifted bunkers in areas during the time when contaminated fuels were known to be supplied, it is strongly recommended to get a solid overview of the quality of the fuel prior to using it by allowing time for tests going beyond routine ISO 8217 quality tests. Ship operators that decide to use fuels from the affected areas without this precaution should pay close attention to fuel oil system components, in particular fuel pumps and filters to act quickly if there are signs of problems. They should further consult technical managers/chief engineers within their own company and/or from other technical service providers, including bunker suppliers.

An issue that has been highlighted is that the methodology for the application of non-standard, forensic levels of testing varies from one laboratory to the next which means that the results cannot always be compared and there may be questions around the reliability of the results. The closest we are to a standard method is ASTM D7845 -17, which has been developed to quantify chemical species at low levels in marine fuel oils and cutter stocks by multidimensional GCMS, but it has limitations.

Indeed, using the ASTM D7845 -17 is not sufficient to identify all the chemical species that may cause operational issues and hence give more full protection against breaches of Clause 5 of ISO 8217 and Regulation 18.3 of MARPOL Annex VI

IBIA has many corporate and individual members employed in the laboratory testing industry, and we have called on them to participate in a Working Group to address the current issue and the potential solutions. We have had a good response to this and while IBIA fully recognises and respects the work done by ISO, ASTM and CIMAC in identifying appropriate test methods, we hope to assist in the development of globally consistent methods and protocol which, along with our Best Practice guidance for bunker suppliers regarding supply chain control, can bring better understanding of what happened this year and how to prevent it from happening again.

Source: IBIA
Published: 17 October, 2018

 

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Interview

Interview: Alkagesta navigates risk from bunkering ops during turbulent times

As the industry navigates this period of uncertainty, the key question is no longer ‘what will fuel cost?’ but rather ‘will fuel be available?’, highlights Mithat Çiftçioğlu.

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Mithat Çiftçioğlu, Marine Fuels Director at Alkagesta, shared his opinion on risk management for bunkering operations under current geopolitical tensions through the April edition of shipping magazine Deniz Ticaret.

The maritime publication, part of the Turkish Chamber of Shipping (İMEAK Deniz Ticaret Odası), has given Manifold Times permission to republish the article:

Fueling Ships in Turbulent Times

From Oil Shock to Fuel Access Crisis: A New Risk Map for Maritime 2026

The final weeks of the first quarter of 2026 mark one of the most complex periods in recent years for global energy and maritime markets. The sharp rise in oil and refined product prices since February 28 may look like a classic energy shock at first glance, but developments in the maritime sector point to a far deeper structural rupture.

What is being debated in the market today is no longer just oil prices. For traders and shipowners operating in the maritime sector and bunker market, the real issue is not the price of fuel — it is access to fuel. The fundamental question in the market has shifted: not what will the price of fuel be, but will fuel even be available?

In light of the Force Majeure cancellations at Asian ports over the past two weeks, another question must also be considered: Will pre-agreed bunker supply contracts actually be delivered?

From Oil Prices to Logistical Reality

Tensions in the Middle East have created a strong geopolitical risk premium in the oil market. Brent crude briefly surpassed the $100 per barrel mark, triggering a search for a new equilibrium across markets. This will inevitably bring inflation and recession back onto the global agenda in the months ahead.

But the rise in oil prices does not only reflect the risk of supply disruption — it also signals the return of one of the most fragile chokepoints in global energy trade:

The Strait of Hormuz

Approximately one-third of the world’s oil trade passes through this narrow waterway. Around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transit Hormuz daily. Any disruption here would therefore affect not only oil prices, but also global refined product flows and the bunker market directly.

Why Strategic Oil Reserves Are Not the Solution

A commonly proposed solution in energy crises is the release of strategic petroleum reserves. However, releasing these reserves does not directly resolve a bunker crisis. Strategic reserves consist of crude oil. To produce bunker fuel, the following chain must be completed:

Crude oil → Refinery → Product logistics → Bunker port

This process takes time. Strategic reserves can temporarily stabilize oil prices, but they cannot solve the access problem in the bunker market in the short term.

Furthermore, the announced reserve release of 400 million barrels, to be drawn down at a rate of 2.5–3 million barrels per day, can only cover a small fraction of the estimated daily loss from the Middle East — optimistically 8–10 million barrels, pessimistically 18–20 million barrels per day.

A Historic Surge in Bunker Fuel Prices

The per-ton price of VLSFO (0.5% sulfur) bunker fuel has surpassed $1,000, reaching approximately double pre-war levels. This also represents some of the highest prices seen since July 2022.

While prices at bunker hubs such as Singapore and Fujairah are approaching $1,100 per ton, European markets have remained comparatively lower.

The Real Problem Is Not Price — It Is Fuel Access

Obtaining bunker quotes for April has become increasingly difficult, particularly at Asian ports. Even where shipowners and traders can secure quotes, the absence of supply guarantees makes pricing extremely challenging.

A senior executive at Oldendorff Carriers summarized the situation in these words:

“We cannot price cargo because we cannot calculate fuel costs; we cannot calculate fuel costs because there is no supply guarantee.”

The CEO of Maersk has compared the current situation to the pandemic era, stating that companies are attempting to source fuel through methods they have never tried before in order to keep global shipping networks supplied.

While supply is tight and prices are near their peak in Singapore and Fujairah, Rotterdam appears relatively more balanced. However, as the conflict drags on, risk perception in European markets is also rising.

The surge in bunker prices will not only increase costs — it will also affect global maritime transport capacity. Ships are expected to reduce their speeds to conserve fuel. This could lead to a reduction in effective carrying capacity, creating new logistical bottlenecks in global trade.

The importance of working with reliable, long-term partners has never been more apparent than during a crisis such as this.

The Widening Price Spread Between Fuel Types

A notable development in the bunker market in recent weeks is the rapid widening of price differentials between different fuel types. Two spreads in particular have expanded significantly:

  • Marine Gas Oil (MGO) – VLSFO
  • VLSFO – HSFO

Rising demand for distillate products, refinery production balances, and regional supply tightness are all contributing to this widening. As a result, bunker purchases have become not merely a matter of price level, but a strategic decision tied to product type and port selection.

An Unexpected Development: Biofuels Becoming Competitive

Another noteworthy development in the bunker market is that biofuels have remained at relatively competitive price levels. This creates two important opportunities for shipowners.

On one hand, biofuels remain competitively priced in certain markets. On the other, they offer a means of compliance with new regulations entering into force in Europe — particularly the FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS frameworks, which require reductions in carbon intensity. In this context, biofuels have become a strategic option for many shipowners.

Conclusion: Active Bunker Management Is The New Normal

The 2026 bunker market presents one of the most complex energy trading environments in recent years. The rise in oil prices, geopolitical risk at the Strait of Hormuz, tightness in physical fuel supply, and widening price spreads between fuel types have made bunker fuel management more critical than ever.

The prevailing view in energy markets is that as long as the risk at the Strait of Hormuz persists, turbulence in the bunker market will persist with it. As time passes, the depletion of commercial stocks may deepen the existing supply tightness further.

For this reason, the current situation is viewed not merely as an energy crisis, but as a new stress scenario testing the logistical infrastructure of global trade.

The view increasingly heard across energy markets is this:

“As long as Hormuz remains closed, it will not be oil prices but fuel access that constitutes the defining risk for global shipping.”

Finally, for shipowners and operators, bunker strategies are shifting away from a passive purchasing approach toward a model grounded in active risk management.

 

Photo and article credit: Deniz Ticaret
Published: 7 May 2026

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Analysis

T&E: Overreliance on traditional bunker fuels costs shipping USD 395 million a day due to Iran conflict

Development has made alternative fuels increasingly more competitive, states Eloi Nordé, shipping policy officer at T&E.

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The Hormuz crisis adds over 300 million a day to shippings fossil fuels bills

The European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E) on 27 March highlighted the adoption of green marine fuels would reduce the shipping industry’s exposure to fuel price shocks in future.

It noted shipping companies are spending an extra €340 million (USD 394.74 million) a day in additional fuel costs as a result of the latest conflict in the Gulf.

As 99% of the global fleet runs on fossil fuels, the industry is directly exposed to fuel price volatility and supply disruptions. Efficiency measures, electrification and e-fuels would reduce the industry’s exposure to price fluctuations.

According to T&E, marine fuel prices have escalated rapidly, with VLSFO reaching €941 per tonne in Singapore, up 223% since the start of 2026. At the same time, LNG prices have risen by 72% since early March. Since February 28, shipping companies have incurred more than €4.6 billion in additional fuel costs.

The development has made alternative fuels increasingly more competitive. As fossil fuel prices reach record highs again, the cost gap with e-fuels is narrowing.

T&E’s research shows that the cost gap between marine gas oil – one of the more expensive fossil fuels – and e-fuels has shrunk to near parity (+5%) in some ports.

Hormuz oil crisis boosts potential e fuel competitiveness

While the trend may be temporary, it shows that the volatility of fossil fuel markets offsets much of the structural cost disadvantage of clean fuels.

“Chaos in the Strait of Hormuz is putting global maritime trade under the spotlight. But it’s on the oil markets where its impact will be felt the most. The war is costing the industry millions every day,” said Eloi Nordé, shipping policy officer at T&E.

“Some governments and parts of the industry have spent the last year bashing green maritime measures as being too expensive, yet those costs pale in comparison to this super-disruption.

“If anything, this crisis should be the catalyst for more investment in European e-fuels and greater uptake of energy efficiency measures to avoid fossil fuel shocks in the future.”

 

Photo credit: European Federation for Transport and Environment
Published: 2 April 2026

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Business

Interview: Nunchi Marine believes Iran war forces a reset in bunker cargo trading

Tomas Stacy, Managing Director of Bunker Trading at oil cargo and bunker trading company, Nunchi Marine, comments on volatility, supply disruption and survival in a fractured market.

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The war involving Iran has pushed the global bunker market into one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory, with Singapore – the world’s largest bunkering hub – feeling the impact.

Once‑reliable supply chains have been disrupted, price volatility has surged to extreme levels, and bunker cargo traders are being forced to abandon long‑standing strategies in favour of defensive, risk‑driven decision‑making.

The sharp reduction in Middle Eastern supply flows has exposed structural vulnerabilities in the market, while suppliers and traders alike have tightened terms amid unprecedented uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, bunker cargo trading has shifted from margin optimisation to survival mode. In this executive interview, Tomas Stacy, Managing Director of Bunker Trading at Singapore-headquartered independent oil cargo and bunker trading company, Nunchi Marine shares how the conflict is reshaping bunker cargo trading, the challenges importers now face, and what it takes to navigate a market defined by scarcity, volatility and risk.

MT: How has the Iran war changed the bunker cargo trading landscape in Singapore?

TS: The change has been structural rather than cyclical. The market is now characterised by extreme price volatility, tighter availability, and far more defensive behaviour from both traders and physical suppliers. The conflict has disrupted a core supply artery into Asia, and that has exposed just how dependent Singapore has been on stable Middle Eastern flows. Trading today is less about optimising margins and more about managing risk and ensuring continuity of supply.

MT: What has been the most immediate impact on bunker cargo importers since the conflict began?

TS: Margin pressure and uncertainty have intensified almost overnight. The sharp drop in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively choked a primary supply source, and that has translated directly into price shocks. Since the war began, VLSFO prices in Singapore have more than doubled, while MGO prices have surged even more sharply. For importers, this has made forward planning extremely difficult and increased exposure on every cargo decision.

MT: Why has the market struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels?

TS: The scale of the disruption is the key issue. The Middle East typically supplies around 1.2 million metric tons of fuel oil per month to Asia, and there is no simple replacement for that volume. Alternative supplies from the Americas or Russia exist, but they are constrained by high freight costs, sanctions, or limited availability. In practical terms, arbitrage opportunities into Singapore have become largely unworkable, leaving the market structurally tight.

MT: How has extreme price volatility changed trading behaviour and supplier relationships?

TS: Volatility has fundamentally altered risk appetite. At the onset of the conflict, prices were moving by as much as $100 to $150 per metric ton in a single day, which makes holding large cargo positions highly risky. In response, physical suppliers have become increasingly defensive—rationing volumes, prioritising long‑standing customers, and avoiding even short‑term term contracts. For traders, this has meant smaller position sizes, shorter, and a much greater emphasis on counterparty strength and reliability.

MT: Beyond price and supply, what risks are now top of mind for bunker cargo traders?

TS: Quality and logistics have moved sharply up the risk agenda. Recent alerts around off‑spec VLSFO in Singapore which were linked to engine damage, have added a new layer of concern for cargo procurement. At the same time, tight supply conditions are beginning to create logistical bottlenecks, with some vessels struggling to secure bunker slots and early signs of congestion appearing at major ports. In this environment, survival depends on disciplined risk management—avoiding long‑term fixed‑price exposure, strengthening supplier relationships, enforcing stricter quality controls, and building greater operational flexibility into voyage planning.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 March 2026

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