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IBIA: Fuel EU Maritime, EU ETS and bunker tax proposals raise many questions

Industry association has studied the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” package and highlights a number of potential consequences and concerns.

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IBIA

IBIA has studied the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” package of proposals in a bid to understand the various aspects and the impact they may have on the marine fuels sector, and created a compact yet comprehensive information document for IBIA’s members summarising the key elements. In doing so, we have highlighted a number of potential consequences and concerns.

The ‘Fit for 55’ package of 13 proposals has thousands of pages forming a complex web of measures. The four with most direct impact on the maritime sector and bunkering are summarised in this table:

IBIA fit for 55 comparison table

Together, these aim to stimulate uptake and supply of renewable and low-carbon fuels (RLF) for ships arriving at and departing from ports in the European Economic Area (EEA), including from countries outside the EEA. The measures are carefully designed to prevent “carbon leakage” – recognising that the international nature of shipping could easily cause ships to evade EU-specific fuel taxes, fees and GHG intensity requirements by bunkering outside the EEA.

Nevertheless, the proposals have the potential to disrupt the level playing field. The complexity these regulations would create for shipping companies and marine fuel suppliers is a concern, while their ability to shift demand from fossil fuels to RLFs in the next decade appear to be limited.

Potential impact of introducing tax on marine fuels

Globally, marine fuels are typically exempt from duty when sold to ships for international use; while fuels for domestic use are subject to duties set by individual countries. The proposal put forward by the Commission intends to remove tax exemptions on aviation and marine fuels in 2023 by updating the EU Energy Taxation Directive (EDT).

Approximate conversion factors would put the proposed tax on HFO sold and used in the EEA at almost €38 per tonne, or $45 per tonne at current exchange rates. That price difference would make bunker prices in EEA ports less competitive, potentially eliminating current price advantages of taking bunkers in EEA ports and cause a shift in bunker demand away from EEA ports.

FuelEU Maritime proposals concerns

This is a new GHG policy concept that sets a limit on the overall lifecycle GHG intensity of fuels used. The policy is intended to overcome the “chicken and egg” obstacle for wider market penetration of renewable and low-carbon fuels for shipping.

A key concern about these proposals is the complexity it would introduce for both users and suppliers of marine energy in order to prove and certify the full well to wake GHG lifecycle emissions of alternative non-fossil fuels.

For shipping companies, this would extend the reporting requirement of annual CO2 equivalent emissions under the EU MRV regulation, using accredited verifiers to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the monitoring and reporting by companies.

Marine fuel suppliers globally who want to provide non-fossil fuels to meet the regulation would, according to the proposal, be required to document well-to-tank GHG emission factors on the relevant bunker delivery notes (BDNs) as well as CO2 equivalents per gram of fuel, along with a separate certificate identifying the fuel production pathway.

Certifying the real WtT GHG emissions and the production pathway could be very complex, as it is quite likely that new alternative fuels – just like today’s oil-based fuels – will be blends of components from different producers and production methods.

Shipping industry representatives have objected to the FuelEU approach because it puts the onus on shipping companies comply and to source compliant fuels; arguing that requirement should be put on marine fuel suppliers to make renewable and low carbon fuels available. While this is entirely understandable, the Commission’s proposal makes it clear that it has placed the responsibility on the energy consumers in order to create demand which might otherwise not materialise.

There is a parallel here to sulphur limits; it has always been up to ships to comply. There is no obligation on suppliers to provide low sulphur fuels, only to meet the required sulphur limit if they choose to provide such fuels. Whenever regulations have caused market demand for low-sulphur fuels to increase, the supply side has responded.

Another criticism levelled at the FuelEU proposals is potential overreliance on biofuels, which can have questionable sustainability credentials. IBIA’s analysis of the proposal has identified two mechanisms that appear to address this issue.

The question does remain, however, just how effective the proposal can be in promoting more demand – and hence supply – of truly sustainable low GHG intensity fuels, at least in the first five to 10 years. The initial 2% and then 6% GHG intensity improvement requirement may, at best, help establish a niche market for alternative fuels, most likely in Europe, and help reward early movers.

Will inclusion of shipping in EU ETS have any impact on the marine fuels market?

There are two main potential impacts on the marine fuels market from extending the EU ETS to maritime transport; one being the extent to which this price signal incentivises uptake of alternative low-carbon fuels, and the other the extent to which it causes ships to change their trading patterns to reduce their exposure to the EU ETS. Both will depend on the carbon price, which would need to be relatively high to have a significant impact.

The projections for carbon prices in the EU ETS assessment of around €45-55/tCO2 between 2023 and 2030 would have a very limited ability to stimulate uptake of alternative fuels, bearing in mind that moving to alternative fuels is not just about bridging the price gap with fossil fuels. Availability, technical feasibility of alternative fuels, regulatory safety standards and the level of investments needed to use them are also major factors.

The EU ETS proposal has assessed the potential for evasion, which becomes lucrative when the cost of compliance exceeds the costs associated with the evasive port call. Exactly what carbon price level this may occur at is not certain, and will depend on the type of cargo, but the ETS could potentially cause both near and longer-term changes in trading patterns and hence which ports ships find most cost-effective for lifting bunkers.

Many questions

Apart from the questions and uncertainties identified above, the EU proposals raise several other questions, including:

  • Are the EU standards for measuring lifecycle GHG intensity the right ones, and can they be adopted globally?
  • Will it send the right signals to achieve a long-term shift to truly sustainable forms of energy?
  • Will it lead to quicker decarbonization of international shipping than already adopted IMO instruments?
  • Will it hinder or accelerate progress on further GHG reduction measures at the IMO?
  • Will IMO safety regulations and commercial fuel quality standards be developed in time to ensure that alternative fuels and energy sources are safe and fit for purpose?

The answer to many of these questions will be coloured by opinions, some will be predictions, while some should be clarified in the process and negotiations that lie ahead before any of the proposals are adopted. The Commission has said that many details are likely to change before the reforms are adopted.

In summary, IBIA sees many unanswered questions regarding the impact of the proposals. We will invite our members to share views and concerns about the “Fit for 55” proposals to gauge their potential impact and appropriate responses, and engage on this matter accordingly.

 

Photo credit and source: International Bunker Industry Association
Published: 3 August, 2021

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Methanol

China: CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu completes methanol bunkering operation in Taizhou

Firm successfully delivered 79.5 metric tonnes of methanol bunker fuel to container ship “NCL VESTLAND” using a mobile methanol bunkering skid at Taizhou Sanfu Marine Engineering.

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China: CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu completes methanol bunkering operation in Taizhou

CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu on Tuesday (3 December) said it successfully refuelled the new methanol dual-fuel powered 1,300TEU container ship NCL VESTLAND at Taizhou Sanfu Marine Engineering.

The total amount of methanol bunker fuel delivered to the boxship was 79.5 metric tonnes.

CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu said the implementation of bunkering operation marked a major breakthrough for the company in the application of alternative fuels for ships, marking its ability to supply methanol marine fuel to ships on a regular basis.

A mobile methanol bunkering skid jointly developed by CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu and COSCO (Lianyungang) Liquid Loading & Unloading Equipment was used for the bunkering operation, which was successfully completed in 2.5 hours. 

In a separate statement, COSCO Shipping said the bunkering operation represented CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu’s first marine methanol fuel supply onshore.

The mobile methanol filling skid operates using the pump as its power source to facilitate simultaneous unloading and refuelling tasks. 

This skid includes several key functional modules, each of which is highly integrated. This integration ensures a safe and efficient process for transferring methanol fuel from tankers to a vessel’s fuel bunker, while also enabling seamless operation and intelligent management. 

The mobile methanol filling skid offers flexibility, requires low initial investment, and boasts a rapid bunkering rate of 180 cubic metres (m3) per hour. 

It stands as an optimal solution for methanol bunkering in the era before widespread adoption of methanol bunkering vessels. Additionally, it can provide bunkering support for shipyards to test new vessels and meet the bunkering requirements of the shipyard,” it added. 

 

Photo credit: CHIMBUSCO Jiangsu
Published: 6 December, 2024

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LNG Bunkering

SEA-LNG: Invest more in LNG bunker vessels, supply and liquefaction infrastructure

LNG bunker market, while growing substantially, is lagging and concerns persist regarding the ability to supply the rapidly growing fleet of LNG-fuelled vessels.

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SEA-LNG: Invest more in LNG bunker vessels, supply and liquefaction infrastructure

Industry coalition SEA-LNG on Thursday (5 December) said that while the approximately 2,200 LNG-fuelled vessels and LNG carriers represent only ‘two minutes into the hour’ of the global fleet of approximately 60,000 deep sea vessels, it remains an adolescent fuel that is maturing significantly faster than other alternative bunker fuels. 

However, it said the LNG pathway still needs more investment, especially in landside facilities for liquefaction near ports, bio and synthetic methane production and bunkering capacity worldwide.

This year has witnessed unprecedented investment in the maturing and scaling of LNG from ship owners.  LNG is starting to dominate as the preferred future fuel pathway. 

However, the bunker market, while growing substantially, is lagging and concerns persist regarding the ability to supply the rapidly growing fleet of LNG-fuelled vessels.

Peter Keller, Chairman, SEA-LNG, said: “With high profile owners now choosing the LNG pathway, we anticipate this trend will continue and accelerate through 2025 and beyond.”

“As the various alternative fuel pathways mature, there is a growing realisation that, despite previous aspirations, some alternative fuel pathways – like the LNG pathway – are more practical and realistic than others.”

“While investment in newbuild LNG-fuelled ships is robust, we need to see the same for bunker vessels, supply and liquefaction infrastructure. As the LNG pathway continues to mature and the use of liquefied biomethane and eventually e-methane increases, the delivery of the fuel to vessels must be assured and the investment gap closed.”

Keller added: “There are approximately 60,000 deep sea ships on the water and, today, we’re looking at around 600 LNG capable ships afloat with a further 600 on order. There are another 1,000 LNG cargo carriers and bunker vessels of varying sizes.”

“While that’s a small percentage of the global fleet, as the clock ticks towards shipping’s emissions reduction targets, the LNG pathway is maturing far faster than other alternative fuels.”

According to DNV there are currently 54 methanol vessels and 2 ammonia vessels on the water.

There are aspects of LNG usage that are fully mature – safety for one. LNG is easy to transport, poses minimal, if any, risk to marine environments, has a low flammability range and is non-toxic. Effective regulations, standards and guidelines for safe operations are widespread, and LNG has been shipped around the world for almost 60 years without any major incidents at sea or in ports.

Keller continued: “When compared to traditional fuels, LNG is more of a teenager with all the growing pains, challenges and victories associated with adolescence.”

“But it is maturing all the time as the market continues to grow, new build orders continue to rise, and the LNG pathway with biomethane and eventually e-methane produced from renewable hydrogen, gains acceptance globally.”

“Shipping stakeholders are investing in LNG because it provides a low risk, incremental pathway for decarbonisation, starting now.  The other alternative fuels are basically toddlers by comparison.  And when it comes to safety, some are mere newborns!”

Another critical need in the maturing process during a period of increased regulation of carbon emissions is the adoption of standardised chain of custody models on a worldwide basis. 

Chain of custody models are becoming increasingly important to maritime decarbonisation as they provide mechanisms to verify that the fuels used are low carbon. 

Such verification creates investor confidence in new fuel supply chains and accelerates the transition to low-carbon fuels, enabling early adoption in conditions of limited supply. 

“They will create a market for green fuels by connecting buyers to fuel producers away from bunker ports enabling faster scaling and providing flexibility to shipping companies at lower cost,” SEA-LNG added.

 

Photo credit: SEA-LNG
Published: 6 December, 2024

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Alternative Fuels

GAC: Does Sweden’s alternative fuel development risk worsening a maritime Catch-22?

GAC Sweden’s Nils Igelström says Sweden faces having a surplus of renewable fuel options with limited access to wider European market; collaboration and clarity is needed to prevent stalling in shipping’s energy transition.

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GAC: Does Sweden’s alternative fuel development risk worsening a maritime Catch-22?

Sweden leads Europe in developing alternative fuels, driven by its 2045 net-zero emissions target and the IMO’s 2050 decarbonisation goal, and it is now making bold advances in renewable fuel options for commercial shipping. 

It is also investing heavily in infrastructure to support the development of biofuels, liquefied biogas and natural gas, and synthetic fuels like eMethanol. Many of these projects, although relatively nascent, showcase the country’s bold vision to lead the alternative fuel development pack.

Groundbreaking

In May 2023, Sweden broke ground on the FlagshipONE facility in Örnsköldsvik, targeting annual production levels of 50,000 tonnes of carbon-neutral eMethanol by combining carbon dioxide and green hydrogen for commercial shipping.

In February 2024, Jämtkraft AB launched NorthStarH2, with the goal of producing up to 100,000 tonnes of eMethanol each year to support Sweden’s green electricity supply and maritime needs.

But the development of alternative fuels goes beyond eMethanol. In August 2024, ScanOcean partnered with Vegoil to introduce a marine fuel derived from hydrotreated vegetable oil produced in Sweden. The tanker vessel Key Fjord successfully took on that product as bunker fuel at the Port of Oskarshamn, marking a step towards making biofuels commercially viable for maritime use.

Such developments highlight Sweden’s leadership in the development of greener fuel options for maritime use. But supply issues could put the brakes on by limiting their market reach.

Bunker fuels supply

The risk of oversupply

Shipping faces a ‘Catch-22’ scenario with alternative fuels: low adoption limits the infrastructure development while companies delay investing in newbuilds or retrofits until fuel supply chains expand. 

This production-market access disconnect risks oversupply in Sweden’s alternative fuel market, restricting access to the wider European maritime sector.

Nils Igelström, Managing Director at GAC Sweden, highlighted the challenge of balancing production and demand for renewable marine fuels: "Sweden is producing some of the most advanced renewable marine fuels, but cargo owners are unwilling to pay higher freight costs. Without buyers, the environmental benefits remain unrealised, stalling progress towards decarbonisation."

Despite interest from shipowners, low demand highlights the need for better market access. 

“Companies like Preem, lead the development of alternative fuels, but oversupply persists,” added Igelström. “With heavily investments in refineries and fuel development, these facilities will continue producing fuels regardless of current demand. However, the priority now is ensuring these fuels reach the market effectively.”

Nils Igelström Managing Director, GAC Sweden

Nils Igelström Managing Director, GAC Sweden

Beyond the Baltic

Supply chain bottlenecks of alternative fuels, including logistical challenges and limited port infrastructure in other parts of Europe, hinder the export of surplus alternative fuels and can lead to higher costs and regulatory complexities. This uneven distribution particularly affects vessels that do not have easy or regular access to the North and Baltic seas. 

“If a vessel calls at Gothenburg regularly, fuel supply isn’t an issue,” said Igelström. “But in areas lacking necessary infrastructure, accessing Sweden’s alternative fuel supplies is challenging. With availability limited to Sweden or Finland or Germany, shipping companies hesitate to invest in greener vessels without certainty of supply.” 

Igelström also emphasised the need to improve accessibility across Europe to encourage investments and support the maritime sector’s green transition. 

The cost factor

Logistical challenges raise costs, with bunkering accounting for up to 50% of a vessel’s daily operating costs. Greener alternatives, according to the World Economic Forum, can cost up to four times more than traditional heavy fuel oil. For an industry with tight margins and volatile freight rates, zero-emission shipping significantly increases the cost of goods. 

A study by Drewry estimated that switching to green methanol would increase fuel costs by 350%, equivalent to an additional US$1,000+ per 40 feet container shipped from Asia to Europe.

“There is a big price gap between renewables and fossil fuels. Exporting Sweden’s alternative fuels further increases costs, but that’s a necessary step to achieve shipping’s green potential,” Igelström said.

Collaboration and clarity

Shipping thrives on clarity, but gaps in regulatory goals, infrastructure, and environmental policies hinder the development of an effective green fuel supply chain.

“Shipping companies need certainty,” Igelström noted. “With tight margins, they can’t risk fuel unavailability, especially where delivery points are scarce. Collaboration across Europe is essential to build a uniform supply chain that ensures renewable-powered ships can operate globally. Policymakers, industry leaders, and international organisations must unite to create conditions for renewable fuels to succeed.”

Sweden is working with partners in Finland, Iceland and the Faroe Islands, leading the charge in devising a supply chain that can support the maritime sector’s access to green fuels. 

In May 2024, the Nordic Maritime Transport and Energy Research Programme launched the STORM project to address supply barriers, assess fuel suitability, and propose solutions to accelerate the green transition. Sweden’s leadership in this initiative highlights its commitment to not only fuel development, but also market accessibility. 

“Sweden is doing its part to drive shipping’s fuel transition through fuel development and regulatory frameworks. However, Europe must collaborate to efficiently distribute surplus renewable fuels across the continent,” Igelström concluded.

 

Photo credit: GAC Sweden
Published: 6 December, 2024

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