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CRU viewpoint: IMO 2020 regulation likely to raise freight rates by around 10-20%

10%-15% of total ocean-going freight capacity will employ scrubbers in 2020; difference in freight rates will be main variable to determine optimal investment pay-off period.
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imo 2020 lower sulphur means higher freight rates

CRU, a London-based commodity research group, on Monday (27 January) published an overview discussing the impact of IMO 2020 on the freight market:

As we approach the 1 January 2020 deadline for the policy, we have greater clarity on the likely impact of the policy on fuel prices. CRU’s view is that the IMO 2020 regulation is likely to raise freight rates by around 10-20%.

Scrubber uptake has been more prevalent than anticipated

From our discussions with Maritime Strategies International (MSI) and other active participants in the freight market, we now expect a higher uptake of scrubbers. We estimate that 20-25% of the larger Capesize vessels will have scrubbers fitted by end 2020. For the mid-size Panamax vessels, the uptake is lower at 5%. The smaller Handymax vessels are unlikely to install scrubbers at all. Considering the share of each type of vessel we calculate that in 2020, 10%-15% of total ocean-going freight capacity will employ scrubbers, rising to ~20% by 2025. More Capesize capacity will be fitted with scrubbers because the vessel size and the typical length of voyage mean a larger volume of fuel is burned making the capital investment and the pay-off period much more attractive. In addition, Capesize vessels generally travel on fixed routes between very large ports (e.g. Brazil or Australia to China), where the likelihood of the high sulphur fuel oil (IFO180) being available is greater than that of a small port.

We have revised our process for calculating the optimal time period over which the investment in a scrubber is expected to be paid off. We now consider only the difference in freight rates as the variable that will determine the optimal pay-off period. As a result, the pay-off period is now expected to be 12-18 months, on average. Of course, we expect this to vary between different shipowners for a variety of reasons.

Of the vessels fitted and due to be fitted with scrubbers, most have opted for the open loop option (where the exhaust gases are washed with sea water and discharged into the sea). This comes as a surprise as closed-loop scrubbers initially were considered to be more environmentally friendly as the ‘waste’ was instead disposed of after treatment at ports. However, since some studies have concluded that there is no notable negative environmental impact to using open loop vessels, many companies fitting scrubbers are willing to take the risk; they are assuming that there will not be a subsequent policy to remove open-loop scrubbers from operations any time soon. Open loop scrubbers cut down on installation and running costs, along with the logistics of carrying and disposing of the waste. There are some regions (Singapore and Fujairah) where an open loop scrubber is not allowed to operate, but until we see such controls at major ports such as Rotterdam, Qingdao and Newcastle the movement of bulk vessels will be largely unaffected.

Fuel blending will achieve compliance

Bunker fuel is a residual fuel of the oil refining process, it is cheap, has high sulphur content and has been the standard fuel used by the shipping industry. The most common types of bunker fuels are IFO 380 and IFO 180, in our work we have focussed on IFO 180. The IMO regulation will limit sulphur emissions and therefore requires shipowners to consider the options available to comply. Fuel blending will be key to achieving compliance. The extent to which fuel type needs to be changed depends on the extent to which emissions need to be cut. Prior to the implementation of IMO 2020, the sulphur emission limit outside the emission control areas (ECAs) was 3.5% m/m. However, after talking with the IMO, we feel that 2.5% m/m is a more accurate figure for actual emissions.

Read the full story:
https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2020/imo-2020-lower-sulphur-means-higher-freight-rates/ 

 

Photo credit: CRU Group
Published: 31 January, 2020

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Legal

Singapore withdraws remaining 127 charges against Hin Leong founder OK Lim

Lim Oon Kuin, also known as OK Lim, was issued a stern warning and a district court granted him a discharge amounting to an acquittal for these charges on 17 July.

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July 21, 2026

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RESIZED Sora Shimazaki on Pexels

Founder of collapsed oil trader Hin Leong Trading, Lim Oon Kuin, also known as OK Lim, has had the remaining 127 charges against him withdrawn, according to The Straits Times on Monday (20 July). 

OK Lim was issued a stern warning and a district court granted him a discharge amounting to an acquittal for these charges, including those for cheating, on 17 July. The discharge means Lim cannot be prosecuted again for the same offences.

Lim, 84, is currently serving a 13½-year prison sentence after the High Court reduced his original 17½-year jail term in March 2026. He was convicted in 2024 on two cheating charges and one count of abetting forgery in a case prosecutors described as one of Singapore’s most serious trade finance frauds.

Lim was convicted in May 2024 of two charges of cheating the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) and one count of abetting forgery that proceeded to trial out of a total of 130 criminal charges.

He was first charged in court on 14 August 2020, and was subsequently handed further charges in court on 25 September 2020, 30 April 2021 and 24 June 2021 for his role in perpetuating fraud on various financial institutions. 

A total of 130 charges were eventually brought against him for cheating and forgery-related offences.

Related: Singapore: Hin Leong Founder OK Lim gets jail term slashed to 13.5 years

 

Photo credit: Sora Shimazaki
Published: 21 July, 2026

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Winding up

Singapore: Coastal Logistics Pte Ltd to be wound up voluntarily

Coastal Logistics was reportedly affiliated with troubled Singapore bunker player Coastal Oil (Singapore) Pte Ltd.

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19 hours ago

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July 21, 2026

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RESIZED Drew Beamer

Several resolutions for Coastal Logistics Pte Ltd were made during an extraordinary general meeting held on 14 July, according to a notice in the Government Gazette on Friday (4 July).

The following resolutions were duly passed during the meeting:

As Special Resolution

  • That it has been proved to the satisfaction of the meeting that the Company cannot by reason of its liabilities continue its business and accordingly the Company be wound up voluntarily pursuant to Section 160(1)(b) of the Insolvency, Restructuring and Dissolution Act 2018 (No. 40 of 2018);

As Ordinary Resolutions

  • that Mr. Wong Pheng Cheong Martin and Ms. Koay May Yee, both care of FTI Consulting (Singapore) Pte Ltd, One Raffles Quay, #27-10 South Tower, Singapore 048583 be appointed as the joint and several Liquidators of the Company for the purpose of such winding up; and
  • that the Liquidators be at liberty to open, maintain and operate any bank account(s) or account(s) for monies received by them as Liquidators with such bank(s) as they deem fit; and
  • that a Committee of Inspection will not be formed.

Manifold Times previously reported Nicholas James Gronow, director of Heng Tong Fuels & Shipping and Coastal Logistics, filed statutory declarations for both companies stating the firms cannot continue their businesses due to liabilities.

Both companies were reportedly affiliated with troubled Singapore bunker player Coastal Oil (Singapore) Pte Ltd. 

In 2019, several vessels owned by both firms entered the sale & purchase (S&P) market in Singapore.

Related: Singapore: Director declares Heng Tong Fuels & Shipping’s inability to continue business
Related: Heng Tong Fuels & Shipping in court over DBS Bank bunker tanker loan
Related: Singapore: Bunker tanker “Coastal Neptune” arrested
Related: Heng Tong Fuels & Shipping, Coastal Logistics tankers enter S&P market

 

Photo credit: Drew Beamer
Published: 21 July, 2026

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LNG Bunkering

PIL’s LNG dual-fuel boxship “Kota Elok” arrives in Singapore on maiden call

As the first of 13 new 13,000 TEU vessels joining its fleet, Kota Elok is equipped to operate on LNG and low-sulphur fuel oil that helps reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

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July 21, 2026

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PIL's LNG dual-fuel boxship “Kota Elok” arrives in Singapore on maiden call

Singapore-based Pacific International Lines Pte Ltd on Monday (20 July) said its first 13,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container vessel, Kota Elok, recently made her maiden call to Singapore on 15 July.

As the first of 13 new 13,000 TEU vessels joining its fleet, Kota Elok is equipped to operate on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and low-sulphur fuel oil that helps reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. 

The vessel also incorporated energy-saving features and digital technologies to reduce fuel consumption and enhance operational performance, as well as a bow windshield to improve aerodynamics, contributing to improved fuel efficiency and lower emissions over the course of long-haul voyages.

“Following Singapore, Kota Elok will continue her voyage on our East Coast Service 1 (ES1) route to South America, calling at ports in Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina before returning to Asia,” the company said in a social media post. 

Kota Elok also became PIL’s first vessel to receive Lloyd’s Register certification for compliance with the IACS UR E26 and UR E27 cyber security requirements.

Developed by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS), UR E26 and UR E27 are mandatory cyber resilience requirements for newbuild vessels contracted from 1 July 2024. 

 

Photo credit: Pacific International Lines
Published: 21 July, 2026

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