VPS: Expert forecasts rise in off-spec marine fuel incidents due to Middle East conflict
- Published
by Admin
Marine fuel quality has historically declined during periods of regional conflict, a trend that continues to be observed in contemporary geopolitical landscapes till date, states the President of Strategic Partnerships at VPS.
Captain Rahul Choudhuri was speaking to Manifold Times on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Maritime 2026 conference on Thursday (26 March) when he pointed out the 2026 Iran war may have created perfect market conditions that incentivise the use of cheaper, lower-quality blend stocks, potentially leading to a global surge in off-spec bunker fuel incidents.
“The mechanism behind this phenomenon is rooted in market dynamics,” explained Captain Choudhuri.
“During conflicts, tight product supply and high prices create an environment where the temptation to use cheaper, potentially off-spec blend stocks becomes greater.
“This risk is not confined to the immediate conflict zones but can manifest globally, as evidenced by the 2022 Singapore case linked to the Ukraine war.”
A recent and stark example is the 2022 Singapore fuel contamination case, where 200 vessels were damaged by contamination involving Chlorinated Organic Compounds (COC).
This incident which VPS helped investigate by fingerprinting the fuel back to a loading in Khor Fakkan in the Middle East occurred in the wake of the Ukraine war, noted Captain Choudhuri.
“It underscored how geopolitical instability can lead some traders to resort to more economical, yet problematic, blend stocks,” he stated while adding “historically, this correlation is well-documented.”
Further, Captain Rahul noted spikes in fuel quality issues have been observed during various regional wars over the past fifty years.
“In fact, the very foundation of modern marine fuel blending and testing and growth of companies such as VPS emerged from the oil embargo and crises of the late 1970s and early 1980s, particularly the Iran-Iraq war,” he shared.
“Prior to these conflicts, marine fuels were typically ‘straight run’ and of high quality, with blending to meet density and viscosity specifications becoming prevalent only after these crises.
“This period also saw the development of new testing methods, such as the aluminium silicon test (which was invented by VPS in Oslo), to address emerging contamination issues.”
Moving forward, Captain Choudhuri reiterated both historical precedent and recent bunker off-spec events have confirmed regional conflicts are strong indicators of impending challenges in marine fuel quality.
As such, the current Middle East conflict, much like past wars, can likely trigger a rise in off-spec marine fuel incidents, posing a global risk to shipping operations.
Related: MPA completes investigations into bunker fuel contamination; temporary suspends Glencore’s Bunkering Licence
Related: MPA investigation traces contaminated bunker fuel back to source at Port of Khor Fakkan
Related: MPA: Glencore and PetroChina supplied contaminated bunkers to about 200 ships in the Port of Singapore
Related: VPS provides update on bunker fuel contamination cases in Singapore
Related: VPS identifies potential bunker fuel contamination crisis unfolding at Singapore
Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 30 March 2026
