DNV on net-zero shipping: Key findings from latest Maritime Forecast
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In a recent Maritime Impact article, classification society DNV highlighted infrastructure trends and transition models that can support wider adoption of low-GHG bunker fuels across the maritime sector based on its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050:
The maritime industry faces a pivotal moment as it adapts to regulation, including the new IMO Net-Zero Framework (pending adoption), aimed at reducing ship greenhouse gas emissions. DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 offers practical insights and analysis to help stakeholders make informed decisions on ships, fuels, technologies and infrastructure for a net-zero future.
“For shipowners exploring low-GHG fuels and onboard carbon capture, knowing when and where they can refuel and offload captured CO₂ is crucial,” explains Eirik Ovrum, Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of the paper. In this article, we highlight the latest developments and emphasize the importance of Chain of Custody models to verify the origin and sustainability of alternative fuels.
Net-Zero Framework sets new course for shipping
Shipping’s energy transition is being shaped by IMO’s revised 2023 GHG Strategy: a 20 per cent emissions reduction from shipping by 2030, a 70 per cent reduction (at least) by 2040, and full-scale decarbonization “by or around” 2050 – all compared with 2008 levels.
The Net-Zero Framework (NZF) aims to accelerate the adoption of low-GHG fuels and technologies. Maritime Forecast to 2050 describes the NZF and compares its consequences with those of relevant EU regulations.
A forthcoming DNV white paper will examine the NZF in depth following the October 2025 IMO meeting, where its adoption is expected to be voted on.
The NZF is based on a GHG fuel intensity (GFI) metric expressed in amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), or its equivalent, per unit of energy used on board in a calendar year on a well-to-wake basis.
Starting in 2028, progressively stricter GFI targets are anticipated to be introduced annually. If adopted, the NZF will affect technology choices and the operation of ships as well as the development of shoreside infrastructure and the availability of low-GHG fuels and CO2 storage.
Tracking the fuel and technology transition
Drawing on data from DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight platform and S&P Global, Maritime Forecast to 2050 reveals a clear shift: LNG and methanol are gaining traction, while ammonia, hydrogen and on-board carbon capture are entering early trials.
Note: The full Maritime Impact article by DNV can be found here.
Related: DNV: Fleet readiness surges ahead of alt bunker fuel supply – green transition at tipping point
Photo credit: DNV
Published: 16 October, 2025
