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OceanScore reveals ship segments set to feel EUR 1.3 billion sting of FuelEU penalties

Container segment will bear the brunt of FuelEU costs, accounting for 29% of gross penalties, followed by RoPax on 14% with tankers and bulkers each on 13%, says firm.

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OceanScore Managing Director Albrecht Grell

Hamburg-based technology platform OceanScore on Tuesday (9 July) said the financial impact of FuelEU Maritime is focusing the minds of shipping companies as they face potential penalties for non-compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity reduction targets – and OceanScore has identified those segments set to be hit hardest.

The following is an article by OceanScore elaborating on the matter:

Vessels in the passenger/cruise, container, RoPax, bulker and tanker segments will have significant cost exposure from the complex regulation due to be implemented from 1 January next year, despite a relatively modest initial target of a 2% cut in GHG intensity, according to OceanScore.

The firm’s data analytics team has calculated that shipping will rack up total FuelEU penalties of €1.345 billion in 2025 through analysis of the 13,000 vessels over 5000gt trading within and into the EU/EEA that are subject to the regulation. This is based on data on trading patterns and fuel mix from 2022 – the last full year currently available.

Containers bear burden

The team has been able to determine FuelEU compliance balances and resulting penalties for each vessel using OceanScore’s proprietary data modelling incorporating AIS data, Thetis emissions data, bunker intelligence and advanced analytics/AI. It has factored in the likely fuel mix for each vessel between EU ports and to/from the EU, as well as in ports.

Vessels will be hit with a penalty of €2400 per tonne of VLSFO-equivalent for failing to meet the initial 2% reduction target relative to a 2020 baseline for average well-to-wake GHG intensity from fleet energy consumption of 91.16 gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) – or emissions per energy unit. The GHG intensity requirement applies to 100% of energy used on voyages and port calls within the EU/EEA and 50% of voyages into and out of the bloc.

As with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), it is the container segment that will bear the brunt of FuelEU costs, accounting for 29% of gross penalties, followed by RoPax on 14% with tankers and bulkers each on 13%.

“It is critical for shipping companies to determine a baseline for expected FuelEU costs to secure proper planning and budgeting processes to compare different mitigation options, as well as to decide what to do with outstanding compliance balances,” says OceanScore Managing Director Albrecht Grell.

“This will require, to a higher degree than the EU ETS, a corporate strategy to determine how to reduce the compliance balance/deficit, how to commercialise a surplus and deal with deficits that remain.”

Wide spread of vessel liabilities

OceanScore has found that liabilities per vessel will differ widely across the various segments due to increasingly diversified fuel choices, including greater uptake of biofuels and LNG. Passenger vessels will be penalised the most with an average of €520,000 per vessel annually, followed by RoPax at €480,000 and RoRo at €314,000, with an average penalty for container ships of only €214,000, according to OceanScore.

Grell points out there are also massive discrepancies between vessels within these segments, with a number of ships in the passenger and RoPax segments exposed to penalties of between €1.8m and €2.5m, and payment obligations for some container ships approaching €1m. This is driven by higher energy consumption simply due to vessel size and trading profile.

While penalties will arise from so-called compliance deficits for vessels using conventional fuels, surpluses totalling an estimated €669m will be generated mainly by vessels fuelled by LNG and LPG with significantly lower carbon intensity.

LNG carriers will account for 78% of the total market surplus and gas carriers 8%, while a further 8% will be generated by container ships that have seen a modest uptake in alternative fuels in recent years.

Pooling can halve costs for the industry

Taking into account this estimated compliance surplus, the net cost of FuelEU penalties for shipping from 2025 would be €680m, which indicates that pooling of vessels can roughly halve the gross burden for the industry.

Penalties will, in segments typically using conventional fuels with comparable carbon intensities such as HFO, LFO or MDO, be roughly proportional to the overall fuel consumption, thus correlating with the EU ETS cost.

Initial costs of FuelEU for most conventionally fuelled vessels, prior to pooling, will be around one-third of those associated with the EU ETS next year when the latter regulation will have 70% phase-in. But ultimately FuelEU is likely to prove a much more costly affair as the requirement for GHG intensity cuts rises to 6% by 2030 and then accelerates to reach 80% by 2050.

“It is therefore incumbent on shipowners to define their strategies not only towards fuel choices and the use of onshore power but also towards handling of residual compliance balances such as pooling, banking and borrowing of balances, to mitigate the financial impact of FuelEU. However, pooling will also come at a cost, while banking and borrowing will incur interest costs and only push liabilities into the future,” Grell explains.

‘Sound administrative processes’

He further points out that pooling compensations paid between different shipping companies will effectively divert cash flow away from the EU that it would otherwise have earned from FuelEU penalties – but that this effect is intended by the regulator to “reward” early adopters of clean fuels.

Another factor that will curb potential income for the EU from this regulation is that the compliance gap has been reduced to only 1.6% by 2022, as average GHG intensity from shipping has come down by 0.4% to 90.82 gCO2e per MJ, mainly due to increased LNG carrier calls to Europe after gas supplies via pipelines from Russia were halted when the latter invaded Ukraine. Given this trend and increasing adoption of biofuels, the 2% compliance gap will probably be closed before the first tightening of reduction targets in 2030.

Grell says the priority for shipping companies, especially at this early stage while cost exposure is relatively low, is to get to grips with the complexity of the regulation and tackle the risks arising from the fact the party liable for penalties – the DoC holder, or possibly shipowner – is not the one responsible for emissions, which is typically the charterer.

“As well as having costs oversight, companies require reliable monitoring and reporting mechanisms with high-quality emissions data. They must also have in place complex contractual arrangements and sound administrative processes to manage compliance and mitigate the financial consequences of the new regulation,” Grell concludes.

Related: FuelEU: New regulation leaves DoC holder with fuel liabilities risk, says OceanScore
Related: ‘Big opportunity’ for bunker traders, suppliers on upcoming FuelEU regulation, forecasts OceanScore

 

Photo credit: OceanScore
Published: 12 July, 2024

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FuelEU

Ahti Climate and DNV connect verified emissions data to FuelEU pooling platform

New integration connects Ahti’s FuelEU pooling platform with DNV’s verification services, Veracity, helping customers reduce manual administration and streamline compliance.

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Ahti Climate brings DNV-verified emissions data into FuelEU pooling platform

Ahti Climate on Monday (31 August) announced a new integration with Veracity, DNV’s independent industry cloud platform, enabling shipowners and operators to seamlessly transfer DNV-verified emissions data into Ahti’s FuelEU pooling platform. 

The integration simplifies emissions reporting by connecting operational data verification with FuelEU compliance workflows, helping customers reduce manual administration, improve data quality and confidently meet regulatory requirements.

For customers such as shipping company Bore Ltd, the integration streamlines the flow of emissions data between verification and compliance systems. Raw fuel consumption data is automatically converted into the required OVD format and submitted for DNV verification through Veracity. Once verified, the emissions figures are securely shared with Ahti’s FuelEU pooling platform, creating a more efficient workflow with less manual administration and greater confidence in reported emissions data.

“Being on one of the surplus generators of the pool, trust in the data is everything for us – we need to know the numbers we’re selling hold up to scrutiny. With verified emissions data flowing straight from Veracity by DNV into the Ahti Pooling Platform, we no longer have to manually cross-check figures before every transaction. It gives us confidence that what we’re bringing to the pool is accurate, and that our partners can rely on it too,” said Marcus Strand ICT Manager at Bore Ltd. 

The integration enables customers to:

  • Reduce manual data entry and administrative workload
  • Improve data quality and reduce the risk of reporting errors
  • Securely exchange verified emissions data across systems and stakeholders
  • Increase transparency and confidence in compliance reporting
  • Connect commercial, operational and compliance workflows
  • Reduce turnaround times for reporting and voyage settlements

“Every partnership we build comes back to the same question: does this make compliance easier for shipowners? With Veracity by DNV, the answer is clearly yes – verified data, connected systems, and one less thing for our customers to worry about,” said Risto-Juhani Kariranta, CEO of Ahti Climate. 

With connectivity to the majority of the world fleet, Veracity’s trusted partner ecosystem, combined with Ahti’s expertise in FuelEU pooling, gives shipowners a more connected approach to emissions verification and compliance. By enabling verified data to flow securely between systems, the partnership helps customers reduce complexity and get greater value from their data and access a growing network of digital solutions.

 

Photo credit: Ahti Climate
Published: 1 September, 2026

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Decarbonisation

NAPA: Why operational efficiency remains shipping’s golden ticket

With regulation tightening and alternative fuels still evolving, Pekka Pakkanen says operational efficiency offers shipping an immediate, scalable way to cut fuel use, emissions and costs.

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NAPA: Why operational efficiency remains shipping’s golden ticket

Shipping’s decarbonisation ambitions are clear but turning that ambition into commercially viable emissions reductions at scale remains a challenge.

As regulatory requirements tighten and fuel markets remain volatile, Pekka Pakkanen, Executive Vice President, Shipping Solutions, NAPA, says operational efficiency is emerging as one of the most immediate and scalable levers available to shipowners, with digital tools increasingly helping to maximise the benefits of energy efficiency technologies: 

The shipping industry’s decarbonization drive does not lack ambition – that is visible in the pace of innovation and research we see around us. But translating that ambition into action at scale and in a commercially viable way remains a different challenge altogether. The International Maritime Organization’s MEPC 84, which concluded in April 2026, reminded us of both how far we have come and how much complexity still remains.

Discussions around the Net-Zero Framework continued, with delegates agreeing to seek further consensus on key adjustments later in October 2026, while progress was made across several other fronts. Separately, the adoption of amendments designating the North-East Atlantic as a new Emission Control Area for Sulphur Oxides (Sox), particulate matter and nitrogen oxides (Nox) is a significant achievement. At the same time, the second phase of the review of the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) began, focusing mainly on enhancing the SEEMP.

Progress, though incremental, is still being made in an environment defined by mounting regulatory obligations, volatile fuel markets, and a clean technology landscape still maturing. All these factors create a backdrop of uncertainty. It’s a word used often to describe shipping’s operating environment and still stands the test of time.

Why energy efficiency technologies remain key

Despite knowing this, the argument I want to put forward is a simple one that can help cut through the uncertainty. The single most accessible, most immediate, commercially viable and scalable lever available to shipping today for managing decarbonization is operational efficiency. Not instead of alternative fuels or new vessel technologies, but as the foundation on which everything else must be built.

Fuel price volatility has made efficiency a financial necessity as much as an environmental one. The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime are already in effect and tightening year on year. Add to this the second phase of the CII and SEEMP review, which MEPC 84 formally commenced, and all signs point to the need for operational performance data, optimization and reporting.

In today’s market, efficiency is both a sustainability metric and a margin protection strategy. Every tonne of fuel saved reduces exposure to volatile fuel prices, emissions costs, and operational uncertainty. The question for shipping executives is, therefore, is how to maximize the impact of efficiency.

The answer increasingly lies in the intelligent combination of digital tools and energy efficiency technologies. One development that has captured significant industry attention is the growing integration of wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) with voyage optimization software. Harnessing the power of the wind is not just about installing sails, wings, or kites – it is also about navigating the inherent challenges that come with wind propulsion, from complex and fast-evolving weather patterns to training crew. Operating wind-assisted propulsion vessels requires both careful pre-planning and adjustments throughout a ship’s journey. Fast-evolving wind speed and direction, as well as waves and currents, must be assessed and constantly re-assessed throughout the voyage to determine the best possible route. Wind-assisted vessels need to catch winds at the right speeds and angles to make the most of their wings, rotors, or sails, which demands continuous route and speed modelling throughout the voyage not just before it. Relying on traditional means and manual methods alone risks leaving a lot of savings on the table. Instead, understanding changes in wind patterns and using this to the vessel’s advantage requires advanced digital tools.

Classification societies have also been responding to the increase in WAPS on the market and have included specific stability rule checks, which digital tools can help comply with. WAPS typically add weight to a vessel’s upper structure, shifting its center of gravity and creating additional stability considerations to be managed. Digital tools, within NAPA Design, can be used to calculate vessel stability characteristics and help users check their design’s performance against multiple classification society rules as well. These are all essential considerations to ensure the solution continues performing optimally.

Whether the technology is wind-assisted propulsion or air lubrication technology, digital technologies can help maximize the savings they deliver. Users can measure performance, adapt operations continuously and make decisions based on reliable data, which can then inform future investments in energy efficiency technologies.

MEPC 84 makes progress on the foundations underpinning global decarbonization 

The expansion of ECAs at MEPC 84 – including the newly designated North-East Atlantic zone – adds another layer of complexity. Research has consistently shown that ECA avoidance through route deviation is rarely the optimal commercial or environmental response; the fuel costs and schedule implications of detours frequently outweigh the cost of sailing through the zone with compliant fuel. Voyage optimization tools model these trade-offs in real time to help make better decisions than human assumptions alone.

MEPC 84 also progressed a review of the SEEMP framework, which remains central to how vessels document and demonstrate their carbon intensity management. The direction of travel is towards increased expectations around the quality, granularity, and integration of performance data. As regulatory frameworks increasingly rely on verifiable performance data, the quality of operational data becomes just as important as the technologies being measured. Poor data quality can undermine both compliance confidence and optimization efforts. Shipowners who have already invested in the digital infrastructure to capture and act on operational data will find themselves significantly better positioned, both for compliance and for commercial advantage.

The case for integrated data systems – platforms that bring together performance analytics, voyage planning, regulatory compliance, and reporting in a coherent interface – is a response to genuine operational needs. When data from signals, noon reports, and logbook entries can be brought together on one platform to produce clear, actionable insights, crews spend less time managing information and more time using it. The same shared source of operational truth also supports better ship to shore collaboration to support real-time route and speed optimization, continuous hull performance monitoring, and integrated compliance management.

None of this diminishes the importance of the longer-term energy transition. Alternative fuels, new energy efficiency technologies, and next-generation vessel design all have a critical role to play in reaching net zero by 2050. But those transitions take time, capital, and regulatory frameworks that are still being finalized. In the interim, and complementing those transitions, operational efficiency represents a proven, scalable, and commercially viable path to meaningful emissions reduction. The industry does not need to wait for its decarbonization ‘golden ticket’ to arrive from future technology. It already holds one. The challenge now is not identifying opportunities for efficiency but capturing them consistently across fleets and voyages.

 

Photo credit: NAPA
Published: 28 August, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

Peninsula: Bio-LNG offers practical route to shipping decarbonisation

Company outlines why bio-LNG is emerging as a key fuel pathway in the maritime energy transition including playing a role in helping operators manage their emissions profile.

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Peninsula

Marine fuels supplier Peninsula recently published an article on why bio-LNG is emerging as a key fuel pathway in the maritime energy transition:

As the maritime industry accelerates its decarbonisation journey, operators face a growing challenge: reducing emissions while maintaining operational efficiency and commercial viability. While no single fuel offers a universal solution, Bio-LNG is increasingly attracting attention as a practical pathway for LNG-fuelled vessels seeking immediate emissions reductions without major infrastructure changes. 

The conversation around alternative fuels often focuses on future technologies and long-term investments. However, for many operators, the more pressing question is how to reduce emissions today using solutions that can be implemented within existing operations. This is where Bio-LNG presents a compelling proposition. 

“As operators look to balance compliance, cost and operational performance, Bio-LNG offers a practical solution that can be integrated into existing LNG infrastructure today. Increasing availability across key bunkering locations is helping turn decarbonisation ambitions into operational reality.” Cristina Danes, LNG Supply Trader, Peninsula. 

Building on Existing LNG Infrastructure 

BioLNG is a renewable marine fuel produced from certified biogenic waste feedstocks. While its origin differs from conventional LNG, it remains chemically equivalent, allowing it to be used within existing LNG infrastructure and dual-fuel engines. This compatibility eliminates the need for costly vessel modifications or extensive retrofitting programmes, reducing both complexity and investment requirements. 

For operators that have already invested in LNG-capable vessels, bioLNG offers a clear route to further improve environmental performance while leveraging existing assets and supply chains. 

The increasing availability of bioLNG across key bunkering hubs is helping remove barriers to adoption. Recent supply operations, including Peninsula’s first Bio-LNG delivery in the Port of Cadiz, illustrate how renewable marine fuels are becoming more accessible through existing LNG supply chains. 

Delivering Meaningful Emissions Reductions 

As regulatory requirements continue to evolve, the ability to demonstrate measurable emissions reductions is becoming increasingly important. BioLNG can achieve lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reductions of up to 90% compared with conventional marine fuels when produced from certified waste-based feedstocks. 

These reductions represent a significant opportunity for vessel operators looking to improve their environmental performance while balancing commercial considerations and operational requirements. 

Supporting Regulatory Compliance 

Alongside emissions reduction targets, compliance is becoming an increasingly central consideration in fuel procurement decisions. 

Frameworks such as FuelEU Maritime are creating new incentives for lower-carbon fuel adoption while introducing additional complexity into compliance planning. In this environment, BioLNG can play an important role in helping operators manage their emissions profile and support broader compliance strategies, including participation in mechanisms such as FuelEU pooling. 

As regulations continue to develop, flexibility will become an increasingly valuable asset. Fuels that can deliver both environmental and compliance benefits are likely to play a growing role in operators’ fuel strategies. 

A Practical Step Forward 

The maritime energy transition will require a mix of solutions, technologies and fuel pathways. While longer-term alternatives continue to develop, BioLNG provides an immediately available option for LNG-fuelled vessels seeking to reduce emissions and prepare for a more carbon-conscious operating environment. 

For many operators, the transition to lower-carbon shipping will not be defined by a single transformational change, but by a series of practical steps. BioLNG represents one such step: leveraging existing infrastructure, supporting regulatory compliance and helping bridge the gap between today’s operations and the future of shipping.

 

Photo credit: Peninsula
Published: 11 August, 2026

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