DNV white paper: Demand for ammonia as bunker fuel in 2030 is estimated to be 2.3 MTPA

The demand for ammonia as a maritime fuel in 2030 is estimated to be 2.3 MTPA, increasing rapidly to 62 MTPA in 2040 and 245 MTPA in 2050, according to a new whitepaper by classification society DNV published recently. 

The report added that the maritime sector will use only green and blue ammonia.

The whitepaper, titled Availability of green and blue ammonia in 2030 to 2050 found that that per Q2 2023, the global green and blue ammonia production industry has announced 161 clean ammonia projects with a total production capacity of 244 MTPA.

“Of the announced 244 MTPA, little over a sixth (43 MTPA) is estimated to be available in the balanced scenario. From this, about 14 MTPA is projected to be blue. Green ammonia dedicated to shipping may be in the range of 4–7 MTPA, and 21–31 MTPA will potentially be available across fertilizers, energy, and fuel markets,” the study explained. 

Ammonia for shipping fuel is targeted by 30 projects across 10 countries with a combined output of 20.8 MTPA. Almost all these projects plan for green ammonia. The leading countries are Australia (49% share) and Egypt (33 % share). 

In addition, 93 other projects have announced end-use combinations of fuel and either fertilizer, energy, or both, with combined production amounting to 174 MTPA. If all the announced projects are successful according to their planned onstream date, the possible supply of ammonia for shipping fuel would be in the range 21–195 MTPA, with 21–151 MTPA available in 2030.

DNV said the whitepaper shed light on critical questions regarding the future of ammonia and examined the supply and demand of green and blue ammonia in its latest white paper based on a review of announced ammonia-plant projects and longer-term demand predictions.

In response to the anticipated delivery of ammonia engines, fuel producers are announcing production plants for ammonia that is clean from well to wake.

“So, how will ammonia supply and demand develop towards 2030 and beyond? How will different industries compete for ammonia? And which ammonia types will prevail?,” DNV explained some of the questions they helped to answer. 

Note: The whitepaper can be downloaded here. 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 8 May 2024