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Integr8: Geopolitics have a huge bearing on our market, but something different is happening in HSFO bunker pricing

Firm discusses the impact of the extreme events unfolding in Middle East, weaker economic indications for China and Europe and causes of huge spread between VLSFO and HSFO, amongst others.
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By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]       

26 October 2023

We are in a global, geopolitical market

It is often said that the more dramatic movements in oil prices are usually driven by world events, and that the bunker market is no different to any other part of the crude and products markets.

This is exactly what has happened in October. Crude prices were falling in the first week of the month on the back of weaker economic indications for China and Europe. Even though Saudi Arabia and Russia stated they would maintain their voluntary production cutbacks through to the end of the year, this had little impact on the market and oil prices continued their bearish slide.

Over this first week of October Brent futures were down $7/bbl, Singapore VLSFO down $50/mt and Rotterdam VLSFO down by almost $40/mt.

Shortly thereafter, the extreme events in the Middle East took hold. Oil prices rebounded with the news, wiping out the declines seen in the previous week; Brent futures moved back up to the low $90s, Singapore VLSFO returned to around $680/mt, and Rotterdam VLSFO hit $625/mt.

These “down and up” price developments and the close relationship between Brent crude and VLSFO are shown clearly in the chart below.

Graph 1 1024x666 1

Prices have eased at the time of writing, as people wait to see where the Middle East conflict goes and weaker economic indicators out of Europe come to the forefront.

Crude price direction is usually a very good guide for VLSFO

Putting some longer-term context into the Singapore VLSFO versus Brent relationship, the chart below illustrates monthly average price developments for these two commodities so far this year. It shows their very strong correlation and the range in pricing. When Brent crude was around $75/bbl, Singapore VLSFO was close to $575/mt. With recent crude prices rising to their highest levels so far this year and Brent in the low $90s, so monthly average Singapore VLSFO prices are at $660/mt and almost $100/mt above their mid-year lows.

Graph 2 1024x664 1

In the near term, a lot of the movement in crude oil prices will be linked to what is happening in the Middle East, and so VLSFO price direction will be derived from these events. However, there are still nuances within the bunker market that we continue to monitor, not least the differences between VLSFO and HSFO.

In complete contrast to VLSFO, average prices for HSFO have fallen!

Unlike VLSFO prices closely tracking crude and moving higher over recent months, there has been a turning point in the HSFO market and prices have actually fallen. Whereas monthly average Singapore VLSFO prices are now $30/mt higher than in August, Singapore HSFO prices are $70/mt lower!

Graph 3 1024x667 1

VLSFO and HSFO go in different directions

From the initial analysis, Singapore VLSFO closely tracks crude, so it is no surprise that the price relationship between these two are consistent. In fact, Singapore VLSFO is priced at close to 100% of Brent (on a weight basis) and this year has only varied within a very narrow range of 95-103%. If you go back three years, the relationship has been consistently tight and VLSFO has been within the 95-108% range of Brent in all but three months.

Graph 4 1024x646 1

This is in complete contrast to HSFO pricing versus crude. Taking Singapore HSFO as a benchmark, its percentage of Brent shifted from around 65% at the start of the year to close to 80% by mid-year. It is no surprise that the HSFO/Brent relationship strengthened even further in July and August to close to 90%, as Saudi Arabia and Russia made additional, voluntary cuts in crude production/exports totalling 1.5 million b/d (all of which are medium and heavy grades). Consequently, HSFO supply was always going to be squeezed and its relative price likely to rise.

With statements that the Saudi (and Russian) production cuts would run through to the end of this year, it might have been the case that HSFO prices would continue to be supported, at least going into the fourth quarter. This hasn’t happened, and HSFO prices have already fallen sharply despite the Saudi Arabia and Russia strategy and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Why has HSFO fallen relative to Brent?

HSFO pricing was always expected to weaken versus Brent, not least in anticipation of the rise in Saudi and Russian crude exports from January. However, the shift has been ‘early’ and the key trigger for the turnaround has centred on the Middle East and a recent substantial increase in HSFO exports.

HSFO is used in a number of power-generating plants in the Middle East and demand is high in the region during the summer months to meet air conditioning demand. As temperatures eased in October, ‘local’ demand for HSFO fell back. Consequently, HSFO exports from the UAE moved from virtually nothing in September, to indications of around 3 million bbls going to Singapore in the middle two weeks of October. On this basis we could expect the seasonal pattern of continued HSFO exports from the UAE until power-generating demand increases again Q2 next year.

In addition to this seasonal shift, there has also been a structural change in HSFO exports from Kuwait. Like the UAE, Kuwait has been burning HSFO in its power generating sector, with supplies coming from their domestic refineries as well as imported volumes. However, with the phased introduction of the massive, 615,000 b/d Al Zour refinery from late last year, it was always planned that the country would switch to using lower sulphur fuel oil as part of its Environmental Fuel Project (EFP). This is now in place and the agreement is for Al Zour to supply up to 225,000 b/d of low-sulphur material to the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity as part of their cleaner energy program.

This has therefore ‘freed-up’ Kuwaiti HSFO for export and also removed them as a buyer of HSFO from the international market on a permanent basis. These ‘additional’ HSFO volumes are moving to Asia and are another contributing factor to a weakening HSFO price.

It all means a widening VLSFO – HSFO price differential

Looking at the VLSFO and HSFO markets, it is clear the price spread between the two products has widened. With ‘incremental’ HSFO volumes available in the Middle East and moving into Singapore, the widening has been greater in these two bunker regions.

This has meant the VLSFO – HSFO spread in Singapore has shifted from an extreme low of only $80/mt in July and August to an average of $180/mt in October. This is still not back to levels seen at the start of this year, but the advantages for scrubber-fitted ships are clearly far better than they have been since March.

Graph 5 1024x569 1

The price spread in Fujairah is very close to the Singapore differential, at around $175/mt in October. However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting ban on Russian products entering Europe (halting a substantial flow of HSFO), the VLSFO – HSFO price spread in Europe has typically been far smaller than in the Middle East and Asia. So, although the spread in Europe has widened, in Rotterdam it has only moved out to $80/mt in October, $100/mt less than in Singapore!

What next?

With the shifts in the HSFO pricing and additional heavier crudes expected to enter the market from the start of next year as Saudi Arabia and Russia remove their voluntary production cutbacks, we can expect ongoing relative downwards pressures on HSFO prices. In the near term, it remains to see what the geopolitical risk is on crude prices, which in turn will largely determine VLSFO pricing. Now the VLSFO – HSFO spread is far more attractive for owners of scrubber-fitted ships in the Middle East and Asia.

Photo credit and source: Integr8
Published: 31 October, 2023

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Baltic Exchange: Bunker Report (3 September 2026)

Bunker report panellists include Island Oil Limited, Cockett Marine Oil Pte, Monjasa A/S, KPI OceanConnect, NSI Marine and Transparensea Fuels.
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September 4, 2026

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The following bunker report has been provided by freight market information provider Baltic Exchange for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

Baltic Exchange: Bunker Report (3 September 2026) Baltic Exchange: Bunker Report (3 September 2026)

All values are in US$/metric ton, all-in (invoice price), delivered on board
Delivery in 7-10 days
ISO 8217:2010
IFO 380 3.5% Sulphur
IFO 380 0.5% Sulphur
DMA 0.1% Sulphur

Fujairah – Offshore Anchorage Area
Gibraltar – Anchorage area
Houston – Houston Harbor
Panama – (Pacific) dangerous cargo area, Balboa
Rotterdam – Waalhaven Maasvlakte range
Singapore – Anchorage, under SBA Scheme
Zhoushan – Southern anchorage area

Submitted weekly at Close of Business UK time Daily

Panellists:
Cockett Marine Oil Pte, Island Oil Limited, KPI OceanConnect, Monjasa A/S, NSI Marine and Transparensea Fuels

 

Photo credit and source: Baltic Exchange
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Bunker Fuel

ENGINE: Americas Fuel Availability Outlook (3 September 2026)

New York sees healthy bunker demand; availability improves in Los Angeles; VLSFO and LSMGO tight in Rio de Janeiro.
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22 hours ago

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September 4, 2026

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RESIZED ENGINE Americas

The following article regarding bunker fuel availability in the Americas region has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

  • New York sees healthy bunker demand
  • Availability improves in Los Angeles
  • VLSFO and LSMGO tight in Rio de Janeiro

North America

In Houston, bunker demand has been strong over the past week, and prompt availability is bit tight across all three conventional grades.

HSFO and VLSFO require lead times of 5–7 days, and LSMGO can be delivered by most suppliers within 4–5 days, a trader said.

At the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA), operations are being conducted on a first-come, first-served basis and remain subject to weather conditions.

Recommended lead times for all three grades stand at 5–8 days at the anchorage this week.

Mobile Bay stands out this week, with visibility dropping as low as 1 nautical mile during high-risk periods recurring almost daily through 9 September. Elsewhere, sea fog risk along the US Gulf Coast is mostly low.

Moderate risk builds through midweek at Port Arthur, Lake Charles, Marsh Island, Port Fourchon, New Orleans and Venice, while Texas ports, Pascagoula and Tampa stay largely clear, bar a few brief moderate spells.

In New York, bunker demand has been good. HSFO and VLSFO are tight for prompt supply, with lead times of 6–8 days, and LSMGO is available within 3–5 days.

No backlog or bunker barge readiness issues have been reported. Weather conditions are forecast to remain calm and conducive for bunkering at the port, a source said.

The Atlantic hurricane season is currently ongoing, with three active hurricanes — Karina and Marie in the Eastern Pacific, and Lowell in the Central Pacific.

The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories on all three. Additional marine warnings are also in effect in the Eastern Pacific region.

On the US West Coast, fuel availability across all three conventional grades has improved since the past week, a trader said. At the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, some suppliers can now deliver VLSFO and LSMGO in a week’s time, compared to last week’s 10 days, while HSFO lead times remain unchanged at 7 days.

Recently, the Port of Los Angeles approved a 30-year lease extension with Yusen Terminals, keeping the operator at the port through 2056, and adding a further $200 million investment in zero-emission equipment.

At Canada’s Vancouver, VLSFO has been a bit tight over the past week, with recommended lead times currently over 5 days, a source said. HSFO and LSMGO have good availability, with lead times of 5–7 days.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Bunker availability is good for HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO at Panama’s Balboa and Cristobal, and demand has picked up this week, a trader told ENGINE.

Suppliers are recommending lead times of 3–5 days for all three fuel grades.

In Brazil, HSFO is no longer available, and lead times for VLSFO and LSMGO vary across the country’s ports.

Santos is congested, but availability is normal for VLSFO and LSMGO, with recommended lead times of 5–8 days.

Availability is tight for both grades in Rio de Janeiro this week, and supply is only available under prior consultation, a source said.

Rio Grande is reporting no availability for LSMGO, and VLSFO is available and can be supplied by most suppliers within a week.

At Paranaguá, Belém and Vila do Conde, VLSFO and LSMGO have decent availability, with lead times ranging between 4–7 days.

Punta Colorada in Argentina is set for a step up in activity, with two floating LNG (FLNG) units due onstream there by the end of 2027.

The Hilli Episeyo, currently repositioning from Cameroon via Singapore, and the Esperanza, a converted LNG carrier, will together add just over 6 million tonnes of annual LNG production capacity once both are running, Antares Shipping Agency said.

Bunkering operations in Argentina’s Zona Comun are continuing, despite choppy conditions at the anchorage.

Strong winds are expected to persist through the week, with the potential to interrupt bunkering, if winds exceed above 20 knots. Supplies of VLSFO and LSMGO are normal, and delivery lead times are currently running at 5-7 days, a source said.

By Gautamee Hazarika

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Bunker Fuel Availability

ENGINE: Europe & Africa Fuel Availability Outlook (2 Sep 2026)

Prompt fuel supplies are tight in the ARA; high cruise demand tightens availability in Piraeus; lead times of 5-7 days required in Durban.
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2 days ago

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September 3, 2026

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RESIZED ENGINE Europe and Africa

The following article regarding Europe and Africa bunker fuel availability has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

  • Prompt fuel supplies are tight in the ARA
  • High cruise demand tightens availability in Piraeus
  • Lead times of 5-7 days required in Durban

Northwest Europe

Fuel availability is tight in the ARA for prompt delivery dates, with buyers advised lead times between 5-7 days for deliveries of HSFO, VLSFO, ULSFO and LSMGO fuel grades, a trader said.

The ARA’s independently held fuel oil stocks have averaged 15% higher in August thus far, compared to July’s monthly average, according to Insights Global data.

The ARA hub has imported around 344,000 b/d of fuel oil in August thus far, more than double July’s monthly average of around 159,000 b/d, according to Vortexa cargo flows data. The largest volumes arrived from Benin (20%), Venezuela (15%) and Mexico (8%).

The region’s independent gasoil inventories – which include diesel and heating oil – have dropped by 1% in August so far, compared to July, according to the Insights Global data.

The region has imported around 156,000 b/d of gasoil in August thus far, up from an average of around 119,000 b/d imported in July, according to Vortexa data. A majority of shipments arrived from the US (36%), Sweden (12%) and the UK (10%).

Bunker fuel availability is stable in Germany’s Hamburg port, a trader told ENGINE. Buyers are recommended a notice of five days to get delivery of any fuel grade.

Fuel availability is tight off Denmark Skaw and in Sweden’s Gothenburg, with buyers advised lead times of 10-14 days for deliveries of any fuel grade, a trader said.

Mediterranean

Bunker availability is tight for prompt dates at ports in the Strait of Gibraltar, with buyers advised earliest delivery dates of around 10-12 days out to get good coverage, a trader told ENGINE.

Suppliers in Gibraltar are running 4-12 hours behind schedule on deliveries, according to port agent MH Bland. In Algeciras, suppliers are running between 6-24 hours delayed, the port agent added. In Spain’s Ceuta, some deliveries at barge could be delayed by 6-8 hours, MH Bland said.

In Barcelona, buyers should book supplies at least a week before deliveries, a trader told ENGINE.

Prompt fuel availability is tight in Las Palmas, with buyers recommended lead times of around 10-12 days, a trader told ENGINE.

VLSFO and LSMGO deliveries off Malta require between 3-4 days of notice while ULSFO deliveries require six days of lead time, according to a trader. Some suppliers are offering prompt deliveries as well, the trader added.

Fuel availability is tight in Greece’s Piraeus for prompt supplies due to increased demand from cruise vessels, with buyers recommended lead times of seven days for HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO, while ULSFO supplies need a 5-day notice, a trader said.

Prompt fuel availability is okay in Turkey’s Istanbul for most marine fuels, a local supplier told ENGINE. LSMGO and ULSFO deliveries need 1-3 days of notice, while VLSFO needs 2-4 days’ time, a trader said. HSFO availability is slightly tight for prompt supplies in Istanbul, with buyers advised 4-7 days of lead time, the trader added.

Africa

In Togo’s Lome and off Namibia’s Walvis Bay, fuel availability is tight for prompt supplies of VLSFO and LSMGO, with buyers recommended a week of notice for both fuel grades.

VLSFO is not available in Angola’s Luanda, a supplier told ENGINE. LSMGO availability is comparatively stable, and a notice of 3-4 days is sufficient for deliveries of the fuel grade, the supplier added.

In Nigeria’s Lagos anchorage, prompt fuel supplies are tight, and buyers are advised lead times of 5-10 days, a local supplier said.

In South Africa’s Durban, prompt fuel supplies of all three grades are tight, a trader said. Buyers are advised a week’s notice for any fuel grade.

Bunker availability is tight in Port Louis, with suppliers requiring notice of around 10-14 days, a trader said.

In the Mozambican ports of Nacala and Maputo, VLSFO supplies are tight and need lead times of a week, a trader told ENGINE.

By Nachiket Tekawade

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 3 September, 2026

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