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Integr8: Geopolitics have a huge bearing on our market, but something different is happening in HSFO bunker pricing

Firm discusses the impact of the extreme events unfolding in Middle East, weaker economic indications for China and Europe and causes of huge spread between VLSFO and HSFO, amongst others.

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By Steve Christy, Research Contributor, Integr8 Fuels
[email protected]       

26 October 2023

We are in a global, geopolitical market

It is often said that the more dramatic movements in oil prices are usually driven by world events, and that the bunker market is no different to any other part of the crude and products markets.

This is exactly what has happened in October. Crude prices were falling in the first week of the month on the back of weaker economic indications for China and Europe. Even though Saudi Arabia and Russia stated they would maintain their voluntary production cutbacks through to the end of the year, this had little impact on the market and oil prices continued their bearish slide.

Over this first week of October Brent futures were down $7/bbl, Singapore VLSFO down $50/mt and Rotterdam VLSFO down by almost $40/mt.

Shortly thereafter, the extreme events in the Middle East took hold. Oil prices rebounded with the news, wiping out the declines seen in the previous week; Brent futures moved back up to the low $90s, Singapore VLSFO returned to around $680/mt, and Rotterdam VLSFO hit $625/mt.

These “down and up” price developments and the close relationship between Brent crude and VLSFO are shown clearly in the chart below.

Graph 1 1024x666 1

Prices have eased at the time of writing, as people wait to see where the Middle East conflict goes and weaker economic indicators out of Europe come to the forefront.

Crude price direction is usually a very good guide for VLSFO

Putting some longer-term context into the Singapore VLSFO versus Brent relationship, the chart below illustrates monthly average price developments for these two commodities so far this year. It shows their very strong correlation and the range in pricing. When Brent crude was around $75/bbl, Singapore VLSFO was close to $575/mt. With recent crude prices rising to their highest levels so far this year and Brent in the low $90s, so monthly average Singapore VLSFO prices are at $660/mt and almost $100/mt above their mid-year lows.

Graph 2 1024x664 1

In the near term, a lot of the movement in crude oil prices will be linked to what is happening in the Middle East, and so VLSFO price direction will be derived from these events. However, there are still nuances within the bunker market that we continue to monitor, not least the differences between VLSFO and HSFO.

In complete contrast to VLSFO, average prices for HSFO have fallen!

Unlike VLSFO prices closely tracking crude and moving higher over recent months, there has been a turning point in the HSFO market and prices have actually fallen. Whereas monthly average Singapore VLSFO prices are now $30/mt higher than in August, Singapore HSFO prices are $70/mt lower!

Graph 3 1024x667 1

VLSFO and HSFO go in different directions

From the initial analysis, Singapore VLSFO closely tracks crude, so it is no surprise that the price relationship between these two are consistent. In fact, Singapore VLSFO is priced at close to 100% of Brent (on a weight basis) and this year has only varied within a very narrow range of 95-103%. If you go back three years, the relationship has been consistently tight and VLSFO has been within the 95-108% range of Brent in all but three months.

Graph 4 1024x646 1

This is in complete contrast to HSFO pricing versus crude. Taking Singapore HSFO as a benchmark, its percentage of Brent shifted from around 65% at the start of the year to close to 80% by mid-year. It is no surprise that the HSFO/Brent relationship strengthened even further in July and August to close to 90%, as Saudi Arabia and Russia made additional, voluntary cuts in crude production/exports totalling 1.5 million b/d (all of which are medium and heavy grades). Consequently, HSFO supply was always going to be squeezed and its relative price likely to rise.

With statements that the Saudi (and Russian) production cuts would run through to the end of this year, it might have been the case that HSFO prices would continue to be supported, at least going into the fourth quarter. This hasn’t happened, and HSFO prices have already fallen sharply despite the Saudi Arabia and Russia strategy and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Why has HSFO fallen relative to Brent?

HSFO pricing was always expected to weaken versus Brent, not least in anticipation of the rise in Saudi and Russian crude exports from January. However, the shift has been ‘early’ and the key trigger for the turnaround has centred on the Middle East and a recent substantial increase in HSFO exports.

HSFO is used in a number of power-generating plants in the Middle East and demand is high in the region during the summer months to meet air conditioning demand. As temperatures eased in October, ‘local’ demand for HSFO fell back. Consequently, HSFO exports from the UAE moved from virtually nothing in September, to indications of around 3 million bbls going to Singapore in the middle two weeks of October. On this basis we could expect the seasonal pattern of continued HSFO exports from the UAE until power-generating demand increases again Q2 next year.

In addition to this seasonal shift, there has also been a structural change in HSFO exports from Kuwait. Like the UAE, Kuwait has been burning HSFO in its power generating sector, with supplies coming from their domestic refineries as well as imported volumes. However, with the phased introduction of the massive, 615,000 b/d Al Zour refinery from late last year, it was always planned that the country would switch to using lower sulphur fuel oil as part of its Environmental Fuel Project (EFP). This is now in place and the agreement is for Al Zour to supply up to 225,000 b/d of low-sulphur material to the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity as part of their cleaner energy program.

This has therefore ‘freed-up’ Kuwaiti HSFO for export and also removed them as a buyer of HSFO from the international market on a permanent basis. These ‘additional’ HSFO volumes are moving to Asia and are another contributing factor to a weakening HSFO price.

It all means a widening VLSFO – HSFO price differential

Looking at the VLSFO and HSFO markets, it is clear the price spread between the two products has widened. With ‘incremental’ HSFO volumes available in the Middle East and moving into Singapore, the widening has been greater in these two bunker regions.

This has meant the VLSFO – HSFO spread in Singapore has shifted from an extreme low of only $80/mt in July and August to an average of $180/mt in October. This is still not back to levels seen at the start of this year, but the advantages for scrubber-fitted ships are clearly far better than they have been since March.

Graph 5 1024x569 1

The price spread in Fujairah is very close to the Singapore differential, at around $175/mt in October. However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting ban on Russian products entering Europe (halting a substantial flow of HSFO), the VLSFO – HSFO price spread in Europe has typically been far smaller than in the Middle East and Asia. So, although the spread in Europe has widened, in Rotterdam it has only moved out to $80/mt in October, $100/mt less than in Singapore!

What next?

With the shifts in the HSFO pricing and additional heavier crudes expected to enter the market from the start of next year as Saudi Arabia and Russia remove their voluntary production cutbacks, we can expect ongoing relative downwards pressures on HSFO prices. In the near term, it remains to see what the geopolitical risk is on crude prices, which in turn will largely determine VLSFO pricing. Now the VLSFO – HSFO spread is far more attractive for owners of scrubber-fitted ships in the Middle East and Asia.

Photo credit and source: Integr8
Published: 31 October, 2023

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Alternative Fuels

ENGINE on Fuel Switch Snapshot: LSMGO surges to greater premium over biofuel

B100 discount to LSMGO widens to $541/mt in Rotterdam; Singapore’s B100 drops to $106/mt below LSMGO; Rotterdam LBM at $639-833/mt discounts to LSMGO.

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ENGINE on Fuel Switch Snapshot: LSMGO surges to greater premium over biofuel

Once a week, bunker intelligence platform ENGINE will publish a snapshot of alternative and conventional bunker fuel prices in the world’s two biggest bunkering hubs. The following is the latest snapshot:

20 July 2026

  • B100 discount to LSMGO widens to $541/mt in Rotterdam
  • Singapore’s B100 drops to $106/mt below LSMGO
  • Rotterdam LBM at $639-833/mt discounts to LSMGO

B100’s premium over HSFO in Rotterdam has narrowed by $50/mt over the past week to $64/mt, while its discount to VLSFO has widened by $83/mt to $105/mt.

B100 has become far more competitive against LSMGO in Rotterdam, with its discount widening by $180/mt over the past week to $541/mt, as a surge in conventional fuel prices left B100 broadly unchanged by comparison.

B100’s price has risen by $109/mt in Singapore, but its discount to LSMGO has still widened by $102/mt to $106/mt, as LSMGO surged by an even greater $211/mt.

Rotterdam’s LNG premium over VLSFO has widened by $35/mt to $201/mt for vessels with Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines. For vessels with diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines, LNG has flipped to a $15/mt premium over VLSFO, from a $22/mt discount the prior week.

Liquefied biomethane (LBM) discounts to VLSFO in Rotterdam have narrowed by $50-52/mt to $203-396/mt over the past week. Against LSMGO, LBM discounts have widened by $45-47/mt to $639-833/mt, depending on engine type.

In Singapore, LNG is now $42/mt cheaper than LSMGO for vessels with Otto MS engines, and $134/mt cheaper for vessels with diesel SS engines.

ENGINE on Fuel Switch Snapshot: LSMGO surges to greater premium over biofuel

Liquid fuels

HSFO and VLSFO prices in Rotterdam have jumped by $66/mt and $99/mt respectively over the past week, while LSMGO has surged by an even steeper $196/mt. A $9.69/bbl ($71/mt) rise in front-month ICE Brent futures, to $87.94/bbl ($645/mt), drove bunker prices sharply higher across the board.

Bunker fuel availability is tight for prompt delivery dates in the ARA ports, with buyers advised to enquire about stems between 5-7 days ahead to get good coverage, a trader said.

Rotterdam’s B100 price has risen by $16/mt over the past week. Dutch ZRE A ticket prices were unchanged at €107.50/mtCO2e.

Singapore’s HSFO and VLSFO prices have risen by $130/mt and $132/mt respectively, while its LSMGO price has gained an even steeper $211/mt over the past week.

VLSFO availability in Singapore has been tight, with several suppliers reporting low stock levels. Recommended lead times have widened from 13–17 days last week to 14–19 days now.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam’s LNG prices have surged by $134-136/mt over the past week, while its LBM prices have climbed by $149-151/mt.

LBM discounts to LNG in Rotterdam have narrowed by $15/mt to $404-411/mt.

Singapore’s LNG bunker benchmarks have surged by $196-197/mt over the past week.

By Erik Hoffmann

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 21 July, 2026

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Bunker Fuel

ENGINE: Americas Fuel Availability Outlook (16 July 2026)

Moderate sea fog to affect parts of US Gulf; Panama bunker supply steady; tight VLSFO and LSMGO supply in Rio Grande.

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RESIZED ENGINE Americas

The following article regarding bunker fuel availability in the Americas region has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

  • Moderate sea fog to affect parts of US Gulf
  • Panama bunker supply steady
  • Tight VLSFO and LSMGO supply in Rio Grande

North America

In Houston, bunker availability is normal across all three conventional fuel grades. Recommended lead times are about 5-7 days for VLSFO and HSFO, while LSMGO has typically taken 4-5 days over the past week, a trader tells ENGINE.

At the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA), deliveries are continuing on a first-come, first-served basis, subject to weather conditions.

Currently, no major operational disruptions have been reported at the anchorage.

Sea fog is not expected to cause widespread bunker disruptions across the US Gulf Coast, with most major ports forecast to maintain good visibility.

Moderate sea fog could affect Pascagoula and Mobile early next week, while Tampa faces the highest risk of reduced visibility between 20-22 July.

Brief visibility restrictions are also forecast at Venice, Louisiana, while conditions are expected to remain favourable at Houston, Galveston, Freeport, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, Port Fourchon and New Orleans.

The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory for Tropical Storm Elida in the Eastern Pacific. Marine warnings are also in effect across parts of the Caribbean, southwest Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Bunker demand on the US East Coast at the port of New York is good, with healthy availability of HSFO and VLSFO.

Most suppliers can deliver both grades within 5 days, and LSMGO requires 2-4 days.

In New York, periods of high wind gusts are forecast through 19 July.

While no backlog congestion has been reported, suppliers may require standby tugs under poor weather conditions, which could slow bunker barge movements, a source said.

On the West Coast, bunker demand has remained normal in Los Angeles and Long Beach, where suppliers recommend lead times between 8-10 days across all conventional grades.

In Vancouver, recommended lead times are 5-7 days for HSFO and 6-8 days for VLSFO and LSMGO, a source said.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Bunker availability is stable in Panama’s Balboa and Cristobal ports. Recommended lead times are 3-5 days for VLSFO and LSMGO, and HSFO requires around 7 days, a source said.

No major congestion or weather-related disruptions have been reported at the ports.

At Balboa, deliveries are being made on a first-come, first-served basis, subject to weather conditions, with priority given to vessels holding confirmed Panama Canal transit schedules.

Weather conditions could temporarily affect operations at several Caribbean bunkering locations.

In Freeport, Bahamas, bunker operations continue normally. Cruise vessels are given priority at the port, and no significant congestion or weather-related disruptions have been reported.

Further east, high wind gusts are forecast through 19 July and could delay bunker operations at St. Eustatius, where deliveries are conducted at anchorage.

Offshore bunkering in Trinidad may also experience delays during the same period because of high winds and rough seas.

Brazil continues to present a mixed supply of bunker fuels.

Santos this week offers normal availability for VLSFO and LSMGO, although port congestion persists, a trader tells ENGINE. Recommended lead times are 5-8 days at the port.

Rio de Janeiro also has normal VLSFO availability and requires lead times between 4 days to one week. LSMGO is available only upon prior consultation at the port.

Availability is tighter at southern Brazilian ports. Paranaguá and Rio Grande have both reported tight VLSFO and LSMGO availability, and operators are advised to plan bunker stems well in advance.

Belém and Vila do Conde continue to offer normal availability of both grades, with lead times between 4-7 days, a source said.

In Argentina’s Zona Común, VLSFO and LSMGO availability is good, with suppliers typically taking between 5-7 days of lead time to deliver via barges, a source said.

Weather conditions could become less favourable between 19-20 July, when high wind gusts are forecast. Deliveries will continue on a first-come, first-served basis, subject to weather conditions.

By Gautamee Hazarika

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 17 July, 2026

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Bunker Fuel Availability

ENGINE: Europe and Africa Fuel Availability Outlook (15 July 2026)

Notice of 5-7 days required in ARA; congestion remains high in Gibraltar and Algeciras; lead time of around 4-5 days recommended in Luanda.

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RESIZED ENGINE Europe and Africa

The following article regarding Europe and Africa bunker fuel availability has been provided by online marine fuel procurement platform ENGINE for post on Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times:

  • Notice of 5-7 days required in ARA
  • Congestion remains high in Gibraltar and Algeciras
  • Lead time of around 4-5 days recommended in Luanda

Northwest Europe

Bunker fuel availability is tight in the ARA for prompt supplies, with buyers advised to book stems around 5-7 days in advance to get good coverage from suppliers, a trader said.

In Antwerp’s Deurganck Dock, hydrofluoric acid spilled from a container on a cargo ship, leading to traffic getting suspended in the affected area. Operations have resumed in all terminals, except the MPET terminal.

The ARA’s independently held fuel oil stocks have averaged 9% higher so far in July, compared to June’s monthly average, according to Insights Global data.

The ARA hub has imported only 175,000 b/d of fuel oil in July so far, down from June’s monthly average of 215,000 b/d, according to Vortexa cargo data.Most import cargoes have come from Colombia (33%), the Caribbean Netherlands (28%) and France (24%).

The region has imported 84,000 b/d of gasoil in July so far, down from 188,000 b/d imported in June, according to Vortexa data. Most of these shipments have come from Canada (24%), the US (20%) and Finland (15%).

Availability of all marine fuel types is stable in Germany’s Hamburg, and all fuel grades can be delivered within five days, a trader told ENGINE.

Off Denmark’s Skaw and in Sweden’s Gothenburg, fuel buyers are advised booking deliveries around 10 days ahead for any fuel grade, according to a trader.

Mediterranean

Ships calling at Gibraltar are seeing heavy congestion due to a lack of space, with around 21 vessels awaiting bunkers as of Wednesday morning, port agent MH Bland said. Some suppliers may be late by anywhere between 24-48 hours on deliveries, the port agent added.

In neighbouring Algeciras, some suppliers are delayed by 12-18 hours on supplies, port agent MH Bland said.

Consequently, fuel buyers looking to bunker in Gibraltar and Algeciras are recommended to book stems around 15 days ahead, a trader said. The congestion in Gibraltar and Algeciras is caused mostly due to overbooking by suppliers, the trader added.

In Spain’s Barcelona, buyers are advised to book with a lead time of a week, a trader said.

Fuel availability is stable in Portugal’s Lisbon, a supplier said.

In Las Palmas, buyers are requested to book with a lead time of around 7-10 days for delivery of HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO supplies, a trader told ENGINE.

Fuel buyers off Malta should enquire around 5-7 days prior to their expected time of arrival, a trader said.

Although there is a slight shortage of LSMGO, the market is expected to bounce back by next week, a supplier told ENGINE.

Fuel availability is stable in Turkey’s Istanbul, with notice of 1-3 days sufficient to get any fuel grade, a local supplier told ENGINE.

In Romania’s Constanta, Mangalia and Midia, fuel availability is normal, but prices are high, a local supplier said.

Africa

HSFO availability remains limited across almost all ports in Africa, a trader told ENGINE.

Prompt fuel availability remains tight in Togo’s Lome and off Namibia’s Walvis Bay, and buyers are recommended lead times of seven days, a trader told ENGINE.

VLSFO supplies in the Nigeria’s Lagos anchorage come with a lead time of 5-7 days, a local supplier told ENGINE.

In Angola’s Luanda, buyers are advised to book with a notice of 4-5 days for VLSFO and LSMGO, a supplier said.

Bunker availability is tight for prompt deliveries in South Africa’s Durban and off Algoa Bay, with buyers advised at least 5-7-day notice for VLSFO and LSMGO, a trader said.

Fuel availability remains tight in Mozambique’s Nacala and Maputo, as suppliers are recommending lead times of around 5-7 days for VLSFO supplies, a trader said.

Bunker fuel availability is tight in Mauritius’ Port Louis, where buyers are advised to book seven days ahead for VLSFO and LSMGO deliveries, a trader said.

By Nachiket Tekawade

 

Photo credit and source: ENGINE
Published: 16 July, 2026

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