Insights: China accounts for nearly a quarter of global LNG volumes in 2025

Boutique advisory firm Lansdowne Moritz on Tuesday (21 October) shared developments of the LNG bunkering market three quarters into 2025: 

Introduction

As we enter the final quarter of the year, total LNG bunkering volumes have already exceeded last year’s total of 2.6 million tons and is on track to hit circa 4 million tonnes for the full calendar year 2025. This update highlights some noteworthy shifts and emerging trends within the market.

Asia withstands gravity and strengthens its lead as the largest market

On first glance, it is perhaps surprising to see that Asia increased its share of global LNG bunkering from 45% in 2024 to 47% in Q1–Q3 2025. This growth in market share comes Against the backdrop of FuelEU Maritime incentives (which should increase LNG bunker volumes in Europe all else equal), a bigger European LBV fleet (23 vs 13), and LNG trading at a ~$0.7/MMBtu discount on average in Europe.

LNG bunker demand growth in China has been particularly strong in 2025 and this theme will be analysed in the following sections. However, it is also important to note that fuel purchasing behaviour cannot solely be explained by bunker market fundamentals; shipping’s primary function is still to move goods and commodities, and bunkering is timed and located to fit the ship’s schedule and wider optimization.

China is the growth machine of the year – but is it structural?

While Singapore was the standout growth market in 2024, China has emerged as the key growth driver in 2025 and is now accounting for nearly a quarter of global LNG volumes.

Because China is central to large containership rotations, Lansdowne Moritz fundamentally expects a significant share of global LNG bunkering to occur there – although China’s current market share may be unsustainably high. China’s current gas balance points to the drivers of current LNG bunker demand growth: rising gas pipeline imports and domestic output, softer demand, and continued supply of long-term LNG contract volumes have created oversupply in the Chinese domestic gas market. With domestic spot gas prices trading below JKM, and the long-term LNG contracts typically linked to Henry Hub or oil and averaging ~$3.5/MMBtu below JKM over the last 12 months, Chinese NOCs (e.g., PetroChina) have been motivated to  re-sell LNG into the bunkering market at very small premiums to JKM while still earning a healthy margin on long-term LNG import contract prices. Hence, China has attracted volumes through highly competitive pricing. However, this advantage may be cyclical rather than structural and could erode over the medium term as market conditions normalise.

Note: The full article by Lansdowne Moritz can be found here. 

Photo credit: Lansdowne Moritz
Published: 23 October, 2025