DNV: New research shows how regulation could reshape shipping

Classification society DNV on Thursday (24 September) released a new article summarizing findings of its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, exploring how future scenarios could affect marine fuel demand, technology uptake, fleet investments, and competitiveness: 

Shipping’s energy transition has entered a new phase. The technology options are increasingly well understood. LNG, methanol, biofuels, wind-assisted propulsion, and emerging ammonia solutions are no longer concepts but commercial realities. Yet despite this progress, shipowners face a more difficult challenge than ever: making investment decisions amid unprecedented regulatory uncertainty.

The 2026 edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 argues that uncertainty itself is now becoming one of the most important drivers of fleet strategy. 

“Decisions taken today on vessel design, retrofits, and fuel capability will determine competitiveness for decades, while the outcome of ongoing regulatory negotiations could significantly reshape the economics of shipping’s energy transition,” says Øyvind Sekkesæter, Senior Consultant at DNV and lead author of this year’s report. “Maritime Forecast to 2050 aims to assist that decision-making with our latest core insights and case study examples.”

Four regulatory scenarios could shape shipping very differently

This year’s Maritime Forecast takes a scenario-based approach, presenting four possible regulatory futures for shipping. These range from the full adoption of IMO’s initially approved Net-Zero Framework (NZF) to its rejection and prolonged political gridlock, while also exploring several intermediate outcomes, including a delayed or revised NZF and scenarios where regional regulations play a more prominent role in driving decarbonization. Rather than predicting which outcome is most likely, the scenarios illustrate how different regulatory futures could affect fuel demand, energy-efficiency uptake, investment signals, and fleet competitiveness.

Stronger global regulation accelerates demand for low-GHG fuels and increases the attractiveness of energy-efficiency measures, while the absence of such regulation slows market development. The result is a transition whose pace may vary significantly depending on future policy decisions.

“For shipowners, this means the challenge is no longer identifying a single fuel pathway that fits the operational profile of their fleet. Instead, it is preparing fleets that remain competitive across multiple possible futures,” Sekkesæter concludes.

Tapping the fleet’s efficiency potential

Fully realizing the fleet’s energy-saving potential requires improvements not only to newbuilds but also to existing ships through retrofits.

Installing energy-saving devices during scheduled dry-docking can be a highly cost-effective decarbonization strategy, as illustrated by the Maritime Forecast’s case study of a hypothetical 15-year-old 5,000 TEU containership (built in 2013).

This envisages USD 2.35 million being invested to retrofit the ship with hydrodynamic enhancements including a bow retrofit, propeller upgrade, and a propeller boss cap fin.

The vessel can achieve estimated fuel savings of around 16% under the modelling assumptions. Evaluating the investment under three price scenarios for low sulphur heavy fuel oil (LSHFO) results in payback periods from 1.4 years to 4.2 years.

Note: The full Maritime Impact article by DNV can be found here. 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 25 September, 2026