Recent market volatility, geopolitical disruption and tightening carbon regulations are challenging the perception that conventional fuels offer the safest path for shipowners. 

Jesper Sørensen, Global Head of Alternative Fuels and Carbon Markets of KPI OceanConnect, shared with Singapore-based bunkering publication Manifold Times how changing market dynamics are reshaping the commercial case for alternative fuels and highlighting the value of fuel flexibility in an increasingly uncertain environment:  

For years the case for conventional bunker fuels has rested, in part, on familiarity. Owners know how to procure it, use it and build voyage economics around it. Alternative fuels, by contrast, have required a leap of faith – underdeveloped supply chains, high costs and a siloed regulatory backdrop. It’s a familiar tension for many ship owners where the scales have consistently favoured conventional fuels. It was, after all, the safe, known pathway while the green transition matures at its own pace.

Recent market conditions, however, have shown that conventional fuels carry their own version of uncertainty, one that is easy to underestimate in quieter times. Since the Iran War began at the end of February, export terminals across Iraq, Oman, Bahrain and the UAE came under threat and were struck or evacuated within days of each other. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of global oil, has been effectively closed for over a month. Over this time, Brent crude – the global oil benchmark – has traded across a $46 range, between $73 and $119. ICE Gasoil front-month swung more than $400 per tonne in a fortnight. LSMGO briefly disappeared from the Singapore spot market. This is the broader market context every owner has been navigating. It is a difficult environment by any measure but is worth pausing on, because it also changes the conversation around alternative fuels.

Biofuel and methanol markets were also affected. But they moved within a materially narrower range and were largely decoupled from the specific geopolitical shocks driving conventional supply disruption. This meant that the spread between alternatives and conventional fuel narrowed considerably. When EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime compliance costs are also factored in, that spread reduced further still, to the point where alternatives have looked competitive on an all-in basis during this time. That is a different commercial conversation from the one the industry was having even six months ago.

Across the supply chain, the consistent feedback from suppliers, traders and charterers is that the window to lock in biofuel or methanol on terms more favourable than any point in the past eighteen months remains open. Disruption and uncertainty are likely to affect the conventional fuel market for many months after the conflict is resolved – indeed the longer disruption continues, the longer the post-conflict recovery will take – and yet most owners have not seized the biofuel opportunity open to them. 

LNG also warrants attention as the alternative fuel with the deepest fleet commitment. Disruption to Qatari export infrastructure is a significant setback, with a recovery timeline that will be measured in years rather than months. This equation is balanced however, by significant new US export capacity coming online in 2026 and 2027, which will help rebalance availability for European and Asian buyers. The harm done to LNG users highlights an issue that is less about LNG specifically and more broadly about resilience and independence from any single fuel source. Owners with flexibility across fuel types – LNG alongside biofuels, methanol and conventional – will be better equipped to absorb supply shocks wherever they arise.

New fuels are initially expensive, but as production scales, supply chains mature and regulation creates demand certainty prices can be expected to come down. We have watched this curve play out in solar power, in batteries and in biofuels for road transport. Marine alternative fuels are at an earlier stage of the same pathway, but the direction of travel is unambiguous. Today’s premiums reflect a market in its early stages of development, not the cost of a system at scale.

Carbon regulation in the maritime industry has advanced quickly, and while it faces fragmentation and disruption, it warrants attention. Under EU frameworks carbon compliance is no longer a future liability, but a direct cash cost to be settled annually, drawn from the same credit lines that fund bunker procurement and working capital. Managing that cost actively, through alternative fuel procurement during periods of narrow spreads, can have a direct impact on the carbon procurement bill. Active management will free up credit capacity and, in many cases, convert a compliance liability into a surplus that can be traded through FuelEU Maritime pooling. Finance teams need to appreciate this strong commercial argument for pursuing the energy transition now.

Carbon regulation by the International Maritime Organization determines prevailing and future conditions of global regulation, so the meaningful technical progress made at MEPC 84 has provided a clearer sense of where the international framework is heading. Technical work on fuel certification, GFI methodologies and reward mechanisms moved forward, and a broad majority of member states signalled support for the Net-Zero Framework as a foundation. But the Net-Zero Fund remains undefined, key elements of energy efficiency regulation have been delayed and further negotiation is inevitable. In the meantime, the EU’s regime is already in effect. Any owner with regular port calls in Europe is operating inside a binding compliance system today, whatever the longer-term international system looks like.

Looked at this holistically, current conditions remind us that certainty is an illusion. No single fuel can be taken for granted and global regulation that would bring simplicity and clarity for the industry is years away. The owners best positioned to navigate today’s environment are those building genuine flexibility into their fuel strategy, spreading exposure across technologies, supply sources and compliance pathways. The conditions to start doing that, or to go further than they already have, are as favourable now as they have ever been.

Photo credit: KPI OceanConnect
Published: 25 June, 2026

Weather intelligence and decision support solutions provider StormGeo and Hamburg-based technology platform OceanScore on Wednesday (3 June) said they have deepened their ongoing cooperation through the signing of a collaboration agreement during Posidonia 2026 in Athens on 2 June.

The cooperation combines StormGeo’s expertise in operational vessel and emissions data with OceanScore’s expertise in emissions compliance workflows across EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and upcoming UK ETS requirements.

Together, the companies aim to help shipping companies seamlessly navigate increasing regulatory complexity more efficiently — from emissions reporting and data validation to compliance exposure management, pooling and financial settlement.

As emissions regulation becomes an increasingly important part of commercial shipping operations, the need for reliable operational data and streamlined compliance processes continues to grow. The cooperation between StormGeo and OceanScore is designed to support shipping companies with more connected, transparent and actionable processes across operational and commercial teams.

“From the outside, companies like StormGeo and OceanScore may sometimes be perceived as competitors because both operate around emissions and compliance workflows,” said Albrecht Grell, Managing Director at OceanScore. 

“But in reality, the industry increasingly needs both perspectives working together: trusted operational emissions data on one side and commercial compliance execution on the other. Our cooperation reflects that shipping companies are no longer looking for isolated solutions — they need connected processes, automated across different systems and reliable decision-making throughout the full compliance chain.”

By connecting validated operational emissions data with commercial compliance management, the cooperation supports workflows across:

• emissions reporting and validation 
• compliance management across EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and upcoming UK ETS requirements
• exposure visibility and cost transparency
• pooling, settlement and financial processes 

The cooperation also aims to improve commercial transparency and coordination across operational and commercial stakeholders.

“StormGeo plays a central role in helping shipping companies turn operational vessel and emissions data into trusted, decision-ready insights,” said Espen Martinsen, Chief Commercial Officer at StormGeo. 

“As emissions regulations become more complex, this data is essential for transparent and efficient compliance management. By working with OceanScore, we can help customers connect StormGeo’s validated operational data with commercial compliance processes, creating a more integrated and practical approach to emissions management.”

The signing ceremony took place at the StormGeo booth during Posidonia 2026 in Athens and was attended by representatives from both companies.

Both companies expect the cooperation to continue evolving alongside upcoming regulatory developments, including FuelEU Maritime, EU ETS, the upcoming UK ETS and future emissions-related frameworks affecting global shipping.

Photo credit: StormGeo
Published: 4 June, 2026

Maritime data and freight management solutions provider Veson Nautical (Veson), on Monday (27 April) has announced a strategic partnership with independent industry cloud platform, Veracity by DNV, to bring verified emissions data into the heart of operational and commercial shipping workflows. 

The product integration connects Veson’s IMOS with the Veracity platform, enabling emissions figures confirmed by DNV to flow directly into IMOS. Within IMOS, these figures are clearly tagged as verified and integrated directly into voyage financials and P&L — reducing reliance on disconnected systems and manual re-entry.   

The integration addresses the growing need for maritime operators to incorporate compliance and automated data quality checks into daily voyage decisions, P&L tracking, and regulatory reporting. By embedding these inputs directly into live P&L calculations, shipping companies can improve the accuracy of voyage results, reach settlement faster, and reduce audit risk. 

“This collaboration between Veson and Veracity by DNV is an exciting development for us at Hafnia,” said Michael Rasmussen, General Manager, Pool Management at Hafnia. 

“We have historically spent significant time toggling between systems to reconcile emissions data. Having verified, accurate data in one place has the potential to streamline that workflow and make it easier for our teams to work with trusted figures in their day-to-day operations.”  

Looking ahead, the partnership will further expand into an end-to-end emissions reporting and verification workflow. Operational vessel data can be automatically transferred from IMOS to DNV’s Veracity platform, where it can be quality-assured in line with the Operational Vessel Data (OVD) standard and passed to DNV’s verification services in Emissions Connect. 

This will provide joint customers with a continuous data flow from data collection to verified emissions data, which can be used to meet evolving frameworks such as EU ETS, FuelEUMaritime, and additional commercial use cases.

“The industry is moving toward a model where verified data is central to both compliance and commercial performance,” said Sean Riley, President and Chief Operating Officer at Veson Nautical. “With DNV we are connecting those two worlds, bringing trusted emissions data directly into the workflows that drive day-to-day decisions and voyage P&L outcomes.” 

“Together with Veson, we are demonstrating how verified data can unlock new value in commercial operations,” said Mikkel Skou, Executive Director, Veracity by DNV. 

“This partnership is a strong example of our envisioned maritime data ecosystem in action; a collaboration that enables our common customers to use their data as a trusted foundation for better decisions, stronger collaboration, and more efficient operations.”  

The partnership builds on Veracity by DNV’s extensive data network, which has connectivity to more than 65,000 vessels worldwide through automated access to verified data. As part of Veson’s expanding Platform Partner Network, DNV extends that reach into the core system where maritime commerce is managed — giving shipping companies access to trusted data within a more connected ecosystem.

Photo credit: Veson Nautical
Published: 28 April, 2026