MSI: IMO midterm measures to add 80% premium to bunker costs by 2035

Maritime and energy research provider Maritime Strategies International (MSI) on Wednesday (7 May) said analysis performed by MSI using data from its new platform has given an early indication of the impact that the IMO’s recently agreed Net Zero Framework will have on the bunker market.

By extending the annual fuel consumption estimates calculated in SEASCAPE platform for 2024 through to 2035, and applying MSI’s forecasts for bunker prices, MSI projected the future fuel costs for all conventionally-fuelled ships included in the platform, which is just over 30,000 ships, alongside the projected IMO penalties.

“This provides some indication of the scale: by this approach, the IMO’s penalties would be equivalent to an 82% premium on top of the fleet bunker costs by 2035 – almost USD 100 billion for the ships included,” it said. 

From another perspective, this also highlighted the opportunity for the shipping bunker market – an annual pot directed towards drop-in biofuels and low carbon alternatives that could rise to USD 100 billion per year within the next decade.

MSI SEASCAPE is designed to complement MSI products which offer a forward view of the market by providing a complete retrospective, 12-month view on the global fleet. Hourly data on vessel activity provides vessel speed, direction, emissions, fuel consumption, port time and anchorage durations.

MSI uses machine learning to identify changes in voyage patterns and ship clusters, developing an algorithm to measure vessel tracks, speed and port stays to generate emissions data where AIS satellite tracks were not available. Each month, MSI’s algorithm generates data for over two million ‘dark periods’ where AIS signals are absent.

Users can extract data by ship, by fleet or sections of the global fleet, filtering by vessel type, characteristics or IMO number. The product is being made available at flexible subscription levels allowing users to start with the data they require most and add additional sectors as their needs evolve.

“MSI has invested two years in SEASCAPE’s development, driven by demand from customers for improved modelling of fleet behaviour at a time when fleet inefficiencies and diversions are impacting earnings and values far in excess of historical norms,” said Will Fray, Director, MSI. 

“The platform can also be used for due diligence prior to vessel acquisition/lending or charter, to track fleet or vessel behaviour and compare against cohorts and competitors.”

Photo credit: Maritime Strategies International
Published: 8 May, 2025