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BIMCO: Decoupling of world trade and emissions is a reality for shipping

Rather than focusing on the rise in emissions between 2012 and 2018, we should note the level trade and emissions in shipping have decoupled, said Deputy Secretary General.

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The September issue of BIMCO Bulletin published an article by Deputy Secretary General, Lars Robert Pedersen who outlines why it would be more productive to look at certain ‘snapshots’ in time rather than a continuous period when analysing data for emissions from shipping to gain any meaningful insights, as ‘decoupling’ for world trade and emissions has occurred – meaning that they are no longer directly correlated: 

At the launch of the Fourth International Maritime Organization’s Greenhouse Gas Study, eyes rested primarily on the fact that CO2 emissions from the shipping industry rose between 2012 and 2018. The focus on this six-year period diverted attention from what should not have been missed – the year 2009.

When world studies come to conclusions and make predictions about temperature trends, sea levels and so on, they are best made after reviewing a long period rather than an isolated snapshot of time. Doing so avoids temporary fluctuations and gives a clearer picture of overall development.

Why then, do so many conclusions of the Fourth Greenhouse Gas Study (GHG) focus on a period limited to six years?

It is indisputable that emissions from shipping rose between 2012 and 2018. The graph below illustrates it well. We need to know emissions levels from year to year, but what we have to remember is that the two previous GHG Studies also looked at earlier years with some overlap. The 2012 to 2018 period is a continuation of this effort to establish historical annual emissions levels. 

Problematic at best, misleading at worst

However, looking at 2012 to 2018 in isolation when coming to conclusions is problematic at best and misleading at worst. Over short periods, the economy fluctuates and emissions fluctuate with it. We have financial crises, ups, downs and, now, a COVID pandemic. World trade, demand, gross domestic products and emissions are all affected by such factors.

Sometimes, it can be insightful to pick and choose a fixed period to understand what happened at a point in time and why. But to draw conclusions about the overall trend in emissions from the shipping industry based on just six years is, in my opinion, misleading.

Studying the graph below, the period from the baseline year of 2008 illustrates that emissions from shipping have indeed fluctuated. As mentioned above, they can change year on year as a result of many factors. In fact, we can be pretty sure that 2020 emissions will show a fall – a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on production activity and world trade.

2009: The decoupling

To conclude that overall emissions are on the rise based on a six-year snapshot is missing the point. The broader picture is a trend of shipping emissions continuously below 2008 levels. 

From 1990 to 2008, emissions were steadily rising, with ups and downs along the way, but, in 2009 something interesting happens: the correlation between trade and emissions breaks. The dotted orange line on the graph – seaborne trade per tonne mile – illustrates that trade and emissions were in sync from 2000 and all the way to 2009. Then, they break apart – they decouple. 

In climate policy, to decouple economic development from emissions is a pretty big deal. This is exactly what the shipping industry has done, and the mere fact that it is happening is a tremendous achievement.

We can add to this fact that demand for shipping is projected to rise between 50% and 100% from 2018 to 2050, while emissions are predicted to remain more or less flat. Using the lowest scenario of demand for shipping – 50% – emissions are expected to stay 10% below 2008 levels in 2050. This means decoupling will become even more pronounced.

While this is indeed encouraging news, it is not enough for the shipping industry to meet its ambition of halving emissions from 2008 levels by 2050. Much more needs to be done, but we have a very good starting point for that discussion, and meeting the target is achievable.

For now, rather than focusing on the rise in emissions between 2012 and 2018, we should focus on the fact that the decoupling is a reality in our industry, look ahead and put all our energy into finding solutions to reach the next important milestone.

The industry must be able to build zero-emission ships in this decade to accelerate the decoupling of trade and emissions.

Graph:

International shipping emissions and trade metrics, indexed in 2008, for the period 1990-2018, according to the voyage-based allocation of international emissions.


Photo credit and source: BIMCO
Published: 17 September, 2020

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Legal

Singapore police arrest eight over alleged illegal MGO transaction off Tuas

SPF says preliminary investigations found that crew members of a Singapore-registered tugboat misappropriated MGO worth about SGD 10,570 without their company’s knowledge and sold it illegally.

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Singapore police arrest eight over alleged illegal MGO transaction off Tuas

The Singapore Police Force (SPF) on Thursday (13 August) said it has arrested eight men, aged between 25 and 54, for their suspected involvement in an illegal transaction of Marine Gas Oil (MGO).

On 13 August 2026 at about 1.05am, officers from the Police Coast Guard (PCG) conducted a check on a Singapore-registered tugboat in the waters off Tuas and discovered that eight crew members were possibly involved in the illegal transaction of MGO. 

“Preliminary investigations revealed that the crew members of the tugboats misappropriated MGO valued at about SGD 10,570 (USD 8,258), without their company’s knowledge,” SPF said in a statement.

“The MGO was sold illegally for their personal financial gain.”

The eight crew members will be charged in court on 14 August 2026 with the offence of theft by servant of property in possession of master under Section 381 of the Penal Code 1871 If convicted, they shall be punished with an imprisonment term that may extend to seven years and shall also be liable to fine.

“The Police take a serious view of illegal transaction of MGO in Singapore Territorial Waters and will continue to conduct enforcement and security checks to prevent, deter and detect such illicit activities in Singapore waters,” SPF added. 

 

Photo credit: Singapore Police Force
Published: 14 August, 2026

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Port & Regulatory

Gard: Sulphur-related bunker claims rise amid tighter China MSA enforcement

Claims involving excessive sulphur content in marine fuels have been rising, while stricter inspections by the China MSA have heightened the focus on sulphur compliance, particularly in the Bohai Sea.

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shraga kopstein on Unsplash

Maritime protection and indemnity (P&I) club Gard on Wednesday (12 August) highlighted that claims involving excessive sulphur content in marine fuels have been rising, while stricter inspections by the China MSA have heightened the focus on sulphur compliance, particularly in the Bohai Sea:

Rise in off-spec sulphur claims

Recent claims experience indicates that bunker quality continues to pose a significant operational risk for shipowners. In our earlier review of bunker-related claims during the first five months of 2026, we highlighted a rise in off-specification bunker incidents amid increased pressure on global fuel supply chains following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. 

Specifically for Sulphur compliance, between January and June 2026, the number of sulphur-related cases increased by more than threefold compared with the same period in 2025. Notably, the number of cases recorded in the first six months of this year has already exceeded the total number reported during the whole of last year by approximately 40%. 

While each case is fact-specific, the increase is notable because excessive sulphur content constitutes a MARPOL compliance issue. Unlike many other bunker quality problems, sulphur non-compliance identified through port state inspections can result in vessel delays, enforcement action, and substantial costs associated with debunkering and fuel disposal. 

The map below illustrates the geographical distribution of sulphur-related claims recorded during the first six months of 2026, based on the location where the bunkers were stemmed.

Distribution of sulphur related claims

China MSA steps up sulphur compliance enforcement

According to our correspondent, Huatai, on 5 June 2026, the maritime authorities of Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong jointly launched a special campaign on ship pollution prevention and control in the Bohai Sea region. The campaign involves coordinated supervision by local MSA branches across the region and is expected to last nearly five months. It covers major ports and surrounding port areas in the Bohai Sea region, including Tianjin, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, Jinzhou, Yingkou and Longkou. 

While the initiative is broader than bunker sulphur compliance alone, its scope includes inspections relating to air pollution prevention, SOx emissions, fuel compliance and other high-pollution-risk operations. Enforcement measures are expected to comprise onboard inspections, cross-regional enforcement activities, unannounced spot checks and remote monitoring. These efforts will be supported by a combination of UAV patrols, maritime patrol vessels, shore-based monitoring systems and rapid on-site fuel testing. 

As a result, vessels trading in the Bohai Sea region may experience increased scrutiny of fuel compliance documentation, fuel sampling records, onboard fuel management procedures, and the handling or disposal of suspected non-compliant fuel.

Documents typically requested by China MSA

Based on our recent experience, including the case discussed above, and subject to the specific requirements of the local MSA office, owners and operators may be requested to provide supporting documentation such as: 

  • Bunker documentation – Bunker Delivery Notes (BDNs), MARPOL fuel sample records, fuel test reports, and relevant fuel quality certificates. 
  • Statutory certificates – including the International Air Pollution Prevention (IAPP) Certificate and International Oil Pollution Prevention (IOPP) Certificate. 
  • Operational records – engine logbooks, deck and navigation logbooks, Oil Record Book entries, and records relating to fuel transfers, storage and consumption. 
  • Sampling documentation – the Master’s statement and any records demonstrating how fuel samples were drawn, sealed, labelled, handled and retained. 
  • Correspondence records – communications with the authorities, bunker suppliers, charterers and other relevant stakeholders. 
  • Fuel disposal records – approved disposal plans, debunkering documentation, receipts and evidence of final disposal, where applicable. 

The exact documentation required will depend on the nature of the investigation, the findings of the inspection, and the requirements of the local enforcement authority. 

Possible regulatory consequences in China

Under the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law of the People’s Republic of China, ocean-going vessels are required to use fuel oil meeting atmospheric pollutant control requirements after berthing. Vessels operating within designated emission control areas must also comply with applicable emission standards. Article 106 provides that where vessel fuel oil fails to meet applicable standards or requirements, the competent maritime authorities may impose fines ranging from RMB 10,000 to RMB 100,000. Liability may extend to shipowners, ship operators and ship managers depending upon the circumstances of the case. 

Recommendation

Sulphur compliance should be treated as both a fuel quality and regulatory risk. Owners and operators are encouraged to take preventive steps before bunkering, act promptly if non-compliant fuel is suspected, and preserve evidence carefully if an inspection or claim arises. Under amended 

Resolution A.1206(34), Appendix 18, 2.1.5, if the BDN shows compliant fuel, but the master has independent test results of the fuel oil sample taken by the ship during the bunkering which indicates non-compliance, the master may document this by notifying the ship’s flag Administration, with copies to: 

  • the competent authority of the relevant port of destination, 
  • the Administration under whose jurisdiction the bunker deliverer is located, 
  • and to the bunker deliverer.

 

Photo credit: shraga kopstein on Unsplash / Gard
Published: 14 August, 2026

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LNG Bunkering

Shell expands LNG bunkering footprint in Spain with Valencia

As one of the region’s key maritime hubs, the company said Valencia expands the options available to shipowners seeking LNG supply along major shipping routes.

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Shell expands LNG bunkering footprint in Spain with Valencia

British oil giant Shell on Thursday (13 August) said Valencia has joined its growing network of bunkering locations, making LNG available as a marine fuel.

The successful completion of the first LNG bunkering operation in Valencia marked an important milestone for Spain and further strengthened Shell’s LNG supply capabilities across the Mediterranean. 

In a video shared by the company, bunkering vessel Alice Consulich was shown supplying an undisclosed volume of LNG to the container ship MSC Sabrina.

“As one of the region’s key maritime hubs, Valencia expands the options available to shipowners seeking LNG supply along major shipping routes,” Shell said in a social media post. 

Shell said the achievement reflected the strong collaboration across the maritime value chain, including MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, the Port of Valencia and Fratelli Cosulich Group.

“We look forward to making more LNG bunker deliveries in Valencia and across the Mediterranean as LNG infrastructure and capabilities continue to expand,” the company said. 

 

Photo credit: Shell
Published: 14 August, 2026

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